User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 1.0951 seconds
62 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, December 02, 2005
2006 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Delgado* 1b .287 .398 .535 143 508 81 146 37 1 29 107 81 129 0 0 Wright 3b .312 .393 .520 161 583 107 182 32 1 29 113 74 99 29 7 Floyd* lf .267 .359 .482 136 490 68 131 25 1 26 83 62 95 10 3 Beltran# cf .275 .360 .458 156 607 90 167 34 4 23 90 79 100 25 11 Nady rf .282 .344 .475 125 400 60 113 21 1 18 65 33 71 2 2 Diaz rf .286 .338 .486 146 535 82 153 25 2 26 87 40 137 10 6 Daubach* 1b .249 .356 .442 122 382 58 95 26 0 16 61 61 110 1 0 Mientkiewicz* 1b .272 .369 .397 137 448 48 122 33 1 7 48 66 59 2 3 Self* 1b .262 .357 .376 128 412 62 108 24 1 7 45 60 97 3 3 Matsui# ss .270 .339 .385 115 441 55 119 26 2 7 49 42 87 8 2 Piazza c .239 .328 .411 113 394 37 94 20 0 16 57 52 63 0 1 Cordero 1b .255 .333 .395 103 329 35 84 16 0 10 46 37 67 1 1 Castro c .233 .314 .424 80 172 20 40 12 0 7 28 21 47 1 0 Nye 3b .269 .336 .380 121 413 45 111 24 2 6 46 39 77 3 3 Keppinger 2b .294 .342 .367 110 412 58 121 17 2 3 40 29 25 7 5 Reyes# ss .281 .311 .400 137 590 91 166 19 15 7 64 26 68 59 11 Lambin# 2b .256 .319 .414 121 403 56 103 26 1 12 51 36 96 4 4 Milledge cf .285 .331 .394 104 383 72 109 21 0 7 42 22 86 19 11 Redman* cf .282 .326 .372 147 486 58 137 19 5 5 50 31 42 13 7 Valent* rf .237 .328 .367 131 401 49 95 23 1 9 45 54 87 0 1 Woodward ss .261 .323 .387 87 261 28 68 14 2 5 29 23 57 3 3 Harper* 1b .233 .289 .434 116 403 55 94 16 1 21 65 30 138 0 1 Brazell* 1b .257 .289 .412 127 495 58 127 21 1 18 66 19 108 2 1 Cairo 2b .262 .314 .352 107 321 30 84 18 1 3 28 18 36 9 3 Calloway* lf .246 .316 .360 114 378 44 93 20 1 7 39 37 80 9 7 Basak ss .239 .309 .370 124 427 58 102 23 3 9 46 40 107 13 9 Bacani 2b .249 .331 .338 104 293 33 73 15 1 3 29 31 59 7 8 Baldiris 3b .249 .310 .334 135 485 61 121 20 3 5 44 38 79 5 3 Hernandez# ss .268 .307 .343 134 507 68 136 15 4 5 44 26 111 26 11 DiFelice c .213 .287 .346 82 263 21 56 14 0 7 31 24 58 1 1 Santiago c .238 .279 .357 93 328 33 78 14 2 7 40 18 58 1 2 Pagan# cf .250 .306 .335 130 508 69 127 16 6 5 44 40 111 22 16 Awfulman# 2b .208 .313 .306 84 173 18 36 9 1 2 16 27 29 2 3 Hall* cf .229 .316 .306 103 327 39 75 12 2 3 26 39 81 14 10 Gil ss .227 .273 .320 64 194 19 44 9 0 3 19 10 54 2 3 Lydon cf .228 .290 .283 133 508 66 116 12 5 2 37 41 111 33 20 Hietpas c .187 .268 .269 92 283 22 53 14 0 3 23 25 78 1 1 Urinal Ice rf .204 .237 .309 100 265 30 54 12 2 4 25 10 50 6 5 Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K Wagner* 5 1 2.54 70 0 71.0 51 20 6 19 82 Martinez 16 7 3.20 31 31 211.0 175 75 19 53 206 Padilla 5 3 3.52 62 1 92.0 85 36 8 26 63 Takatsu 4 3 3.60 50 0 50.0 42 20 6 21 45 Moreno 4 3 3.78 41 0 50.0 43 21 3 20 46 Looper 5 4 3.82 73 0 73.0 74 31 6 22 45 Bell 3 2 3.86 55 0 70.0 63 30 7 23 69 Koo* 0 0 4.00 35 0 27.0 25 12 2 14 22 Glavine* 13 12 4.13 33 33 205.0 213 94 17 67 98 Heilman 7 6 4.18 42 19 140.0 129 65 11 64 116 Fortunato 5 4 4.19 51 2 73.0 58 34 8 43 83 Seo 10 10 4.21 32 31 188.0 193 88 22 49 125 Hernandez 5 6 4.36 66 0 64.0 60 31 7 33 51 Benson 10 10 4.37 28 28 173.0 175 84 19 53 104 Bannister 9 9 4.38 27 27 156.0 160 76 17 45 113 The Run Fairy* 2 3 4.50 54 0 56.0 54 28 5 26 33 Trachsel 10 12 4.50 29 29 182.0 206 91 23 68 99 Hamulack* 4 4 4.50 51 0 56.0 53 28 5 30 46 Zambrano 9 10 4.53 30 27 165.0 152 83 14 94 122 Keppel 3 5 4.69 13 12 71.0 79 37 8 18 31 McGinley 4 7 4.81 44 2 88.0 91 47 16 24 69 Graves 2 3 5.00 54 0 54.0 62 30 9 17 29 Colyer* 2 3 5.02 52 0 52.0 46 29 5 38 49 Ishii* 6 11 5.05 26 25 139.0 131 78 15 87 91 Yates 4 8 5.07 36 8 71.0 66 40 7 44 58 Humber 3 6 5.23 15 15 74.0 86 43 11 20 41 Lindstrom 4 7 5.29 31 19 114.0 126 67 16 44 66 Perisho* 3 5 5.33 56 2 49.0 47 29 6 28 38 Junge 5 10 5.37 26 19 119.0 128 71 20 47 79 Ring* 2 4 5.43 49 0 53.0 54 32 7 28 38 Santiago 4 10 5.49 38 11 105.0 125 64 12 41 44 Lee 2 5 5.70 51 0 60.0 60 38 9 37 46 Strayhorn 1 7 7.36 36 0 44.0 51 36 10 30 27 Hill 1 4 7.42 31 0 40.0 39 33 6 39 31 Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2008 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
A couple of questions/comments.
1. How did Pedro rank among MLB starters? How many starters has ZiPs projected to have a better ERA than him next year?
2. Why exactly does Nady project so well? He hasn't shown he can be that good.
3. Urinal Ice is excellent!
Sounds about right. Hopefully, the offense will be good enough to lift some of them to .550 pitchers, though.
Can I get a hint for this one?
Also, if Matsui hits .270/.339/.385 in 2006, he can have the 2B job.
I also think these are pretty accurate- with the exception of missing the boat on Heilman/Seo, who I think took the step forward to frontline pitchers this past season. Time will tell, obviously...
Isn't it just projecting Wright to be the same player in 2006 as he was in 2005? Not that I disagree with or would be especially disappointed with that result.
The offense looks about right. I think its optimistic on Matsui, Nady and Victor, but a little negative on Delgado, Beltran (understandably so) and Cliff.
Benson 10 10 4.37 28 28 173.0 175 84 19 53 104
Bannister 9 9 4.38 27 27 156.0 160 76 17 45 113
</pre>
I think I see why Omar wants to trade Benson. Same ERA and better peripherals from Bannister.
Can I get a hint for this one?
I am guessing Mike DeFelice
Gerald Williams.
- Urinal Ice, as usual, is Gerald Williams.
- Drops in speed score at Beltran's age tend to be bad for future CS%. ZiPS doesn't know about injuries and is likely underestimating Beltran's success rate.
- Beltran has only slugged .500 once in a Shea context; Kauffman was a very good hitters' park until they moved the fences back.
Delgado* 1b .287 .398 .535 143 508 81 146 37 1 29 107 81 129 0 0
Mientkiewicz* 1b .272 .369 .397 137 448 48 122 33 1 7 48 66 59 2 3
</pre>
Not a bad upgrade. I'm curious what Jacobs projection is.
Nady rf .282 .344 .475 125 400 60 113 21 1 18 65 33 71 2 2
Diaz rf .286 .338 .486 146 535 82 153 25 2 26 87 40 137 10 6
</pre>
Who to play in RF? Also known as what can I get in a trade for Nady (who is 3 years older, more expensive and closer to arbitration).
Also, that could be a good team.
How are they defensively? I recall Nady being fairly good, but I don't know anything about Diaz's D.
Nady to the Giants for Alfonzo? Please? As a Cal man, I have always rooted for Nady. I hope he hits that projection.
Yes, I realize its early, but Omar needs to add one more reliable arm in there and start inviting relievers to ST like its going out of style.
I don't think he's going to steal 29 bases, though.
How about Kris Benson for Ray Durham instead?
i think mcginley would make a pretty solid pick in the rule 5 draft.
That wouldn't be as bad as it seems... I am interested in seeing Durham's ZiPS projection - with his age and injury history, I think he is due for a big fall.
Of course, Sabean would probably give you Durham for Trachsel and The Run Fairy, and then sign a crap FA to play second just to get rid of another draft pick.
Sigh.
The rumor making its way around is that when other teams heard Benson was available for trade with this deal, they called Omar and offered to top the Baltimore deal.
my guess is the other team is telling omar they'll give them someone better than julio for benson, as long as omar sends milledge out too.
So who gets to play the part of the radical priest? Sounds like a reason to do the Barry Zito trade . . . .
Maybe it's guessing Nady will play more against lefties than righties? I'm not sure who gets the other AB -- Diaz, perhaps, or Redman. Neither is ideal as Diaz is also a righty and Redman can't hit (but his '04 UZR is fantastic), but an .810 OPS with average defense seems like a reasonable expectation for the 2006 aggregate Met RF.
95 seems like an awful lot. I know the Mets outplayed their Pythagorean last year (unlucky), but I think they were fairly lucky when it came to injury. Pedro and Glavine pitched almost the whole year and the guys who did get injured were more or less fungible (and some guys who we wished had been injured were not). Floyd and Reyes, who are not exactly Cal Ripken, stayed healthy all year. And, may Sam M strike me down where I stand, David Wright stayed healthy too.
If either Pedro or Wright had missed significant time, I think the Mets would have been lucky to finish at .500. So I'm more inclined to use last year's actual result as a baseline. At the moment I'm guessing 89 wins, but I don't think Omar's done yet. I get the feeling the rotation is going to look very different come Opening Day. Not based on anything, just making stuff up (maybe Gotham Baseball is hiring? OK, unnecessary potshot).
I'm more pessimistic on most of the relievers than Zips is, just because of the inherent lack of data. I think Glavine's ERA is a bit high, too, mostly because he's consistenly outperformed his component ERA's over the course of his career and I'm inclined to believe this is an ability (related to his philosophy of nibbling and going down/away all the time). As for Heilman and Seo establishing a new level of ability, well, I'll be a lot more convinced at the end of this season. I'm not sold yet.
Most of the hitters look more or less right to me, except Matsui. I don't see him cracking a .700 OPS. I'd love to be wrong, but I've been burned twice expecting production from him, and I'd rather not do it again.
All you need to know about Victor Diaz' defense is that his nickname is Mini-Manny.
I'm not terribly worried (yet). Wagner and Heilman will probably be very effective in the 8-9 innings. I'd offer arbitration to Kool-aid and Pooper as they should be good value bets for the middle innings and I'm happy to take draft picks for them. Zambrano isn't going anywhere, so he's the mop-up guy. I'd give Bell and McGinley a shot, but I think the Mets will give Ring another chance to contribute.
In short, yes, another quality reliever is in order, and more options are needed in case the current ones falter, but there's plenty of time yet. If he's got nothing else to do, then by all means, snap up some arms. But I'd rather see him spend time patching up 2B and upgrading the rotation before signing some above-average relievers to multi-year deals.
I'd rather trade Benson than Trachsel (and Heredia isn't on the team anymore). They seem to have similar performance, and Trachsel makes way less. For whatever the rumor mill is worth, it seems the Mets feel the same way.
Benson for Julio and a B+ prospect sounds like a pretty reasonable deal as long as they use the salary savings elsewhere, though I think they could probably do better.
Incidentally, with the sums being thrown at relievers these days, what's anyone's best guess on what Kevin Millwood will make? He'd look good taking over the #2 spot from Glavine (and potentially help Nibbles pick up more wins pitching against #3 starters).
Uhhh actually Beltran, while not missing much time, was actually hurt almost the entire year. The Mets also deserve credit for handling Pedro fairly conservatively as well, not pushing him later in the year when they were out of it.
Floyd is due for something horrific to happen to him though.
ZiPS projects 16 HRA in 88 innings. Having watched him pitch for Norfolk, that sounds very believable.
He'll make Russ Ortiz seem like a Cy Young contender.
Beltran was hurt, sure, but if he were really hurt (i.e., couldn't play), the Mets might have been in far worse shape. Plus, one injury out of three key position players (Floyd, Beltran, Wright) where one of them is injury-prone strikes me as pretty good.
I don't see Pedro staying healthy for three more years. Not because he's particularly fragile or anything, just because of his age and the fact that he's a pitcher. He could miss time this year, or next, or the year after, but he's going to miss some time. Can the Mets minimize the damage with good handling, especially if they're in a pennant race? We'll see.
No doubt. But with an almost 3:1 K:BB and a solid WHIP, isn't that a pitcher you'd take for 50 grand and the minimum salary? I would.
Last year, the Mets allowed just over 4 runs per game. If they do that again this year, the division title should be theirs. Somehow, I doubt that they will.
BA/OB/SLG/AB/2B/3B/HR
Projection: .270/.339/.385/441/26/2/7
2004: .272/.331/.396/460/32/2/7
He was pretty awful last year, but 2 years ago he was basically the exact same player he's projected to be now. Given that his scouting reports were pretty good when he came here, I think it isn't unreasonable to assume that last year was the fluke. Not that his projected line is so great for an everyday player, but I'd certainly take that from a second basemen playing at Shea who is going to be batting at the bottom of the lineup. In fact, I think Matsui is likely their best option at this point, assuming he isn't beheaded by the fans if he gets off to a slow first week.
Also, I think this team is in some trouble if Pedro is the only starter capable of posting a sub 4 ERA. I'm hoping those projections are wrong.
You seriously think there's a better than 50-50 shot Wagner is better than those numbers?
I tend to agree with cynic....The Mets need another significant addition before they are a clear favorite in the NL East. Right now they are still in the "good enough to make the playoffs, but far from a sure thing" category.
I think all the starters do better than the projections. That may be the Met fanboy in me but that's my feeling.
That's an ugly projection for Beltran. If you include his 2004 playoffs with his 2004 regular season, he hit .279/.380/.581 with 48 stolen bases in 51 attempts. If that's all Beltran can do as a Met when healthy, his contract is going to be one of the worst in baseball history.
ZIPS thinks more of Nady and Diaz than I do. I'd be surprised if either player cracked the .800 range. If Matsui and Castro can hit those projections, Minaya should stand pat with regards to the lineup. Castro at around 1 million dollars and those numbers is much better than Hernandez or Molina at 7-8 million. I think Castro has a good shot at hitting those numbers. Matsui, not so much.
Cairo's projected OPS is .666. I don't think I need to comment further.
Well, Wagner's career DiPS ERA is 2.86. I'm not saying he's going to bomb out and suffer horrible hit luck or anything, but to say a guy with a career 2.40 ERA is going to be post a 2.54 ERA in a season (which is barely another a couple of runs over that 2.40 on the projected number of innings) hardly seems unreasonable. Look at this way:
Wagner's ERA in 71 IP if...
17 ER Allowed: 2.15
18 ER Allowed: 2.28
19 ER Allowed: 2.40
20 ER Allowed: 2.54
21 ER Allowed: 2.67
Those four runs Wagner allows between 21 and 17 could be completely meaningless (all allowed in games the Mets were up by 3) or they could decide the season (if they somehow cause the loss in four games). But ultimately, the prediction has a HUGE margin of error given the small number of innings being thrown, worrying too much about the precise number borders on the absurd
The offense looks about right. I think its optimistic on Matsui, Nady and Victor, but a little negative on Delgado, Beltran (understandably so) and Cliff.
I think you fail to understand regression. That explains every player listed besides Nady. As for Nady, I think it's a slightly optimistic projection, but keep in mind he should be entering his prime (generically speaking), and he had an OPS+ of 106 last year which would have probably given him like a 790 or so OPS last year.
I understand why the projections are what they are. That, however, doesn't preclude me from disagreeing with them.
1. Reyes#.............ss .281 .311 .400
2. Beltran#...........cf .275 .360 .458
3. Wright.............3b .312 .393 .520
4. Delgado*...........1b .287 .398 .535
5. Floyd*.............lf .267 .359 .482
6. Diaz/Nady..........rf .286 .340 .480
7. Hernandez...........c .285 .330 .460 (made up)
8. Grudzielanek.......2b .290 .335 .405 (also made up)
Pedro...........211 IP, 3.20 ERA
Vazquez.........214, 3.95 (translated, roughly)
Glavine.........205, 4.13
Seo.............188, 4.21
Trachsel........182, 4.50
Bullpen: Wagner, Heilman, Tavarez, Padilla, Bell and others.
As you can see I changed Heilman's projection in moving him to full-time relief. I think Glavine might be a little better than that projection but I think Trachsel's is about right. I also think the team above could be good enough to make the playoffs with it's share of health/luck but if there's one more change I'd like to see it's a Trachsel upgrade. How about we get whatever the heck we can (and I'm not expecting much) for Trachsel, Zambrano and Matsui and spend a few extra bucks to sign Millwood?
I could certainly live with that.
This is the same Glavine that Mets fans thought was done in June of last year, right?
Yes, it's funny how 109 innings with a 2.22 ERA can convince the fans that a hall of famer has a little left in the tank.
Yes, it's funny how 109 innings with a 2.22 ERA can convince the fans that a hall of famer has a little left in the tank.
< Rob Base>
PWN3D
< /Rob Base>
Yes, it's funny how 109 innings with a 2.22 ERA can convince the fans that a hall of famer has a little left in the tank.
< Rob Base>
PWN3D
< /Rob Base>
I love it.
How am I pwned? You guys are the idiots who thought he was done in the first place. I doubt he keeps that HR/IP rate up he had last year. If it goes back to recent norms for him, his ERA will be around 4-4.2. I think that's what should be expected.
First, I wouldn't take my "PWN3D" comment seriously. I did it because for some reason it makes me laugh. I guess it is true that simple minds are amused by simple things.
Second, Tom Glavine was one of the best pitchers in the second half of the season. Here are his peripherals during his 109.1 second half innings.
7-6, 2.22 ERA, 4.86 k/9, 2.95 k/bb, .41 hr/9, 1.01 WHIP.
Now, obviously, Glavine hasn't all of a sudden become so much better at this age. But he has posted an ERA of 3.60 or better in 6 of the last 7 seasons. I don't think Met fans are being unrealistic in thinking that Glavine should be able to post an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range.
You guys are the idiots who thought he was done in the first place.
That's because we fans are whiny <expletive deleted>, especially if the player is a guy we don't like that much and Glavine will never be a Met fan favorite.
I know it sounds absurd, but Manny might be about break even compared to Floyd and not an upgrade at all.
15? Floyd was an above average defender last year, and actually rated as one of the best in baseball. If healthy (which of course, is an issue), he's probably like 25 runs better than Manny.
I don't think it's absurd in the slightest. In fact, I wouldn't trade Floyd even up for Manny unless the Red Sox evened up the salaries, and maybe not even then (given that we are defensively challenged in RF, too). The only reason I might do it is because of Floyd's history of being fragile. The idea of giving up something more than Floyd is crazy talk.
I could certainly live with that.
I wouldn't be happy with that. Trachsel at his current salary is much better than Burnett at 5/50. Burnett won't add that much value over Trachsel.
This talks all seems moot since Floyd would almost definately block a trade to Boston.
It pretty much depends on how much faith you have in the crop of Mets' pitching prospects. If you are high on Bannister, Humber, Pelfrey, et al., then you don't want someone blocking them, and you're happy to have Trachsel (and Glavine) for one more year and then open spots in the rotation.
Or, you might think they need to start planning for the departure of those two guys, and signing Burnett now improves them for 2006 and solidifies the rotation thereafter.
Him, Pedro, Benson, Zambrano and Glavine would be a very nice rotation. I already think that the Mets are the best team in the NL East (and 2nd in all of the NL). That would put them very close to STL IMO.
As for the prospects, you can only expect a couple to pan out. Humber and Pelfrey probably won't be ready until 2008 (and that's moving pretty fast, without struggles). At that point Pedro will be reaching the end of the line, Benson will be too, Glavine will likely have retired, and Zambrano very well might not even be on the team anymore.
Petit's good but I don't think he'll make any significant contributions until halfway into the 2007 season. I don't see their prospects as reasons to not sign Burnett.
Was he traded for Delgado?
Agreed. I think Burnett is actually underrated by some. He projects well and has filthy stuff. I think he could be an ace (ofcourse it's possible he could merely be above average) so I wouldn't worry TOO much about who he's blocking. I think he'll end up getting more than 5/50.
where's the projection for manny?
Manny's ZIPS with the Red Sox is 389/563. I translated that to 385/553 with the Mets. (I think Manny has enough power and hits to all fields enough that he doesn't need the extra RHB at Shea penalty.)
Eh, there are better gambles - a guy like, say, Rohlicek is more likely to find control than McGinley is to gain velocity. YMMV - at minimum, he's a solid insurance policy.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main