Damn..... I really need to upgrade from version 8.

First error noted! Damon's arm rating is supposed to be FR, not VG.

Heh, in my first game played with the season disk (went ahead an made preliminary profiles).

************** Bottom of the 10th inning, Yankees batting
5-5 0 --- 00 Damon homered (X)

Thanks, Szym! This is furting awesome!

Oh, that game was against the Red Sox.

This is great.

As for small errors . . .

Brian McCann is listed as a righted handed batter.
Aaron Harang is missing a starters rating.

Dan - does this work for Version 9a?

Rangers: I don't know if Teixeira is supposed to be 'av', but if so that's wrong. Also, Nix should be Vg in CF. Lastly, Dellucci should be listed as poor in left field. These might not be typos, but they're still errors!

A quick glance over the Rangers shows all the main players to be rated for the necessary positions, and I didn't notice any handedness issues off the top of my head.

Also, Dan, is there any rhyme or reason to the lineups you built? By and large it seems normal (a mix of what should happen combined with what you think teams should do, based on projections) - but then I saw Kameron Loe listed on the farm squad, so I got curious.

Anyways, thanks for all the work you put into this.

So the first thing I do with these things is sim several seasons to get a general idea of what's what.

When I did it last year, what kept happening that surprised me was Baltimore doing really really well.

This year? I'm doing my 4th run through, and in two of the first three, and in the one I'm running now, Tampa Bay has been near the top of the AL East every time. Finished about 5 games back or so.

It should be noted, however, that bibigon is playing the t-ball variation, where pitching and plate discipline don't matter.

Also, Dan, is there any rhyme or reason to the lineups you built? By and large it seems normal (a mix of what should happen combined with what you think teams should do, based on projections) - but then I saw Kameron Loe listed on the farm squad, so I got curious.

As I said above, the only thing done is to get all those players on the right teams as best I could - the farm/majors distinctions aren't there at the moment, which is my next project. A lot of newly-projected players and newly-signed minor league free agents appear on the active rosters at the moment.

So the first thing I do with these things is sim several seasons to get a general idea of what's what.

I'm sure that a lot of what you're looking at so far is simply the current roster makeup. No doubt part of Texas' excellence in sims so far and the White Sox underperformance is the fact that the Rangers get 35 players (and 21 pitchers) to choose from and the White Sox only get 22 (better shape than the Marlins and their 6-man pitching staff!), not even all of them really major leaguers. I *did* quickly auto-generate profiles just to do a quick sim, but the DMB manager occasionally makes odd choices like, for example:

- Uribe to 3rd and Valido (239/272/323) at short
- Benching Pena and Griffey to play Chris Denorfia
- Jhonny Peralta to 3rd to make room for Brandon Phillips

Can i change my screen name to Szymborski's #1 fan? Thanks Dan, I know this is a ton of work.

IIRC DMB is "deterministic", right? IOW players will play exactly the same amount of
games they actually played, and will hit exactly what they really hit. Someone correct
me if I'm wrong. This is the main reason why I have yet to buy the game...

IIRC DMB is "deterministic", right? IOW players will play exactly the same amount of
games they actually played, and will hit exactly what they really hit. Someone correct
me if I'm wrong.

You're quite wrong, John. DMB isn't the least bit deterministic.

John, not really. There are options to limit bench-playing time, you can set your own depth charts to allocate percentage of time played at each position, and set up your pitching staff as desired. There's a pretty significant variance in team performance and individual performance when you run through a lot of trials, which is why i like it. In 1000 runs last with Dan's projections last year, even Tampa Bay managed to win an AL East title once.

Some more changes. Brian McCann is now batting lefthanded and Adam Greenberg has been added.

************** Bottom of the 10th inning, Yankees batting

red sox would ahve won already if you hadn't messed up damon's arm rating.

Made Cubs and Diamondbacks profiles and played a game.

Brandon Webb got roughed up, allowing 8 runs in 4 innings. Good Cub debuts for Pierre (3 for 6, 3 runs, RBI) and Jones (4 for 5, 2 doubles, a triple, 4 RBI). Cedeno went 2-for-5 with a run so he's safe from a Dusty bench until the 3rd game at least. Zambrano struck out 11 in 8 innings.

I just downloaded the zips file and could use some help. I've never come across the "zips" word before so I was curious exactly what it is? Also, do the projections include just Major leaguers? I noticed some players with rather high projections (Freddy Guzman with 49 steals), so I thought maybe that minor league stats may be incorporated.

ZiPS is my projection system.

Minor leaguers are included - ZiPS is a computer program not meant to predict who will get jobs.

yay. good bye work.

First time user of this. Can someone tell me how close the sims using the ZIPs projections last year , came to DMB's official projections in March

Some AL Leaderboards (hope this is legit)

Starter ERA
1) Santana,Johan
2) Halladay,Roy
3) Harden,Rich
4) Schilling,Curt
5) Johnson,Randy
6) Burnett,A.J.
7) Hernandez,Felix
8) Sabathia,C.C.
9) Buehrle,Mark
10) Beckett,Josh
11) Verlander,Justin
12) Kazmir,Scott
13) Blanton,Joe
14) Sowers,Jeremy
15) Byrd,Paul

Reliever ERA
1) Nathan,Joe
2) Soriano,Rafael
3) Street,Huston
4) Rivera,Mariano
5) Rodriguez,Francisco
6) Miller,Matt
7) Ryan,B.J.
8) Rincon,Juan
9) Betancourt,Rafael
10) Cordero,Francisco
11) Shields,Scot
12) Duchscherer,Justin
13) Calero,Kiko
14) Hansen,Craig
15) Cabrera,Fernando

Some AL Leaderboards (hope this is legit)

ZiPS always loves the A's, Danny.

Big comeback year for Schilling.

Sowers' ROY performance trumped by Verlander's ROY performance.

Top 5 by Position by RC/27 (AL)

C
Martinez,Victor
Varitek,Jason
Lopez,Javy
Mauer,Joe
Johjima,Kenji

1B/DH
1) Ortiz,David
2) Hafner,Travis
3) Teixeira,Mark
4) Thome,Jim
5) Giambi,Jason

2B
1) Loretta,Mark
2) Castillo,Luis
3) Roberts,Brian
4) Cantu,Jorge
5) Iguchi,Tadahito

3B
1) Rodriguez,Alex
2) Glaus,Troy
3) Chavez,Eric
4) Youkilis,Kevin
5) Lowell,Mike

SS
1) Young,Mike
2) Tejada,Miguel
3) Peralta,Jhonny
4) Guillen,Carlos
5) Jeter,Derek

LF
1) Ramirez,Manny
2) Wilkerson,Brad
3) Matsui,Hideki
4) Gload,Ross
5) Catalanotto,Frankie

CF
1) Sizemore,Grady
2) DeJesus,David
3) Wells,Vernon
4) Snelling,Chris
5) Ford,Lew

RF
Guerrero,Vladimir
Nixon,Trot
Gomes,Jonny
Ordonez,Magglio
Bradley,Milton* (Moved from CF, where he ranked 1st)

So the A's will play Milton in RF, and Kotsay in CF?!

So the A's will play Milton in RF, and Kotsay in CF?!

That's the word.

4) Youkilis,Kevin
5) Lowell,Mike

The Red Sox don't need no stinking shortstop. They've got two 3B!

4) Gload,Ross

That's awesome. Did Podsednik get the boot?

Is Gomes really playing RF this season for the Rays?

Is Gomes really playing RF this season for the Rays?

No idea, but I'd guess not. Probably should have moved him and Youkilis to 1B/DH.

Oh, and Ross Gload would have to be having a monster season with the bat to be considered a valuable left-fielder. He's a decent first baseman, but he's one of the worst defensive outfielders I've ever seen. Maybe worse then Manny Ramirez.

First time user of this. Can someone tell me how close the sims using the ZIPs projections last year , came to DMB's official projections in March

Mooser, here's a comparison of 1000 runs with both ZiPS and DMB that I did last year.

It should be noted, however, that bibigon is playing the t-ball variation, where pitching and plate discipline don't matter.

No, it's just a random set of flukes it appears. The results have no since been reproduced.

I'm sure that a lot of what you're looking at so far is simply the current roster makeup. No doubt part of Texas' excellence in sims so far and the White Sox underperformance is the fact that the Rangers get 35 players (and 21 pitchers) to choose from and the White Sox only get 22 (better shape than the Marlins and their 6-man pitching staff!), not even all of them really major leaguers.

That's actually not the problem I'm having. I went through every roster and made the appropriate adjustments. I still had the computer auto generate the profile, but everyone's playing with a 25 man roster at least in the sims.

Thanks SG in Atl, very informative. I was trying to determine which set of projections have been more accurate, and based on 2005 results, both ZIPs and Diamond Mind appear about equal. Tippett should include ZIPs simulations in their year end review of projections, it would certainly be a better comparison than certain ones, like "Spring Training Standings"

Tippett should include ZIPs simulations in their year end review of projections, it would certainly be a better comparison than certain ones, like "Spring Training Standings"

Understandably, Tom might not want to publicize something free that kinda competes with something he sells. I hope that most of you are buying the DMB projection disk anyway and that this has encouraged enough people to buy DMB or upgrade to the most recent version that I'm having a positive effect on his sales. It's a terrific product, which would be damn well near perfect if not for a few minor issues.

Thanks for the info. [What game was I thinking of, I wonder]
Now, not to start an argument, but does DMB model "clutch
performance"? IOW will Papi Ortiz hit well in the late innings
of close games, or does DMB assume that is all random, and he
might very well gag in such situations in their sim? Their
website did not mention clutch performance in their FAQ...

John: You can change their clutch rating (for hitters) or jam rating (for pitchers) to make them clutch or super clutch. I don't know exactly how they account for it in their stats. I don't think Dan includes clutch ratings, and if you want to play with clutch/jam ratings you have to click the little box when you're setting up the game.

Unlike stratomatic, it doesn't look like they have any unclutch options - just 'tough' and 'super'.

Ah thanks. Looks like I will be springing for this one then. :-)

Dan: Don't you think this double counts defense? You told me in one of the ZIPS threads that you already use DER to adjust pitcher ERA's. But if you're trying to run sims on DMB, that will double count the defense because that ERA (that presumably already has defense accounted for) will then proceed to get worse/better based on the fielders behind the pitcher.

Could you let me know if you account for this by not using a DER adjusted ERA in the DMB build?

But if you're trying to run sims on DMB, that will double count the defense because that ERA (that presumably already has defense accounted for) will then proceed to get worse/better based on the fielders behind the pitcher.

DMB runs sims on a pitch-by-pitch basis, so it's looking at the likelihood that specific events (hit, ball, strike, grounder, fly ball, etc.) will happen in specific circumstances, not at the likelihood of individual players putting up specific statistics.

When you generate a player, the game asks you to pick a home park and era, so it understands where you're coming up with your figures.

You listed games played for hitters in the team previews. Is there a reason that isn't included in this version?

Dan: Don't you think this double counts defense? You told me in one of the ZIPS threads that you already use DER to adjust pitcher ERA's. But if you're trying to run sims on DMB, that will double count the defense because that ERA (that presumably already has defense accounted for) will then proceed to get worse/better based on the fielders behind the pitcher.

This is hard to answer without direct knowledge of how the software generates all those even tables. When generating an event table, how much of it is based on the entered ERA and how much determined by components? Luke Kraemer or someone could answer that question, but wouldn't, for a number of very good reasons.

I try to minimize the effects by simply being conservative with defensive ratings along with being conservative in my own ERA estimates (since I regress to the mean my estimates of team defense).

According to this discussion on the DMB forums,ERA is basically meaningless when it comes to projecting a pitchers' performance in the game, and that it mainly comes down to their components against (hits, walks, HR, Ks, etc.,). I can't find it right now though.

Another change I made was I had Shawn Wooten as W00t3n for awhile, but I figured that would just be obnoxious.

Obviously I did find it, or I wouldn't have linked it, so disregard the last sentence in post 44.

ERA is basically meaningless when it comes to projecting a pitchers' performance in the game, and that it mainly comes down to their components against (hits, walks, HR, Ks, etc.,)

Right, although I'm not sure what stance Mr. Tippett takes on DIPS.

Right, although I'm not sure what stance Mr. Tippett takes on DIPS.

Tippett did a very interesting research project on DIPS.

His conclusion:

The process of separating pitching stats into defense-independent and defense-dependent groups is illuminating. The notion that pitchers don't have as much control over in-play outcomes as they do over defense-independent outcomes is both obvious (in retrospect) and very important. Voros McCracken deserves a lot of credit for introducing this way of thinking.

The bottom line, though, is that I am convinced that pitchers do influence in-play outcomes to a significant degree. There's a reason why Charlie Hough and Jamie Moyer and Phil Niekro and Tom Glavine and Bud Black have had successful careers despite mediocre strikeout rates. There's a reason why the top strikeout pitchers have also suppressed in-play hits at a good rate. Using power or control or deception or a knuckleball, pitchers can keep hitters off balance and induce more than their share of routine grounders, popups, and lazy fly balls.

ERA is basically meaningless when it comes to projecting a pitchers' performance in the game, and that it mainly comes down to their components against (hits, walks, HR, Ks, etc.,)

This brings up another point.

When I've played with historical season disks, it seems like certain players tend to 'sim' better than others (guys with the same OPS, RC/27, etc.). Mainly, guys who are good BA, good OBP, low strikeout, and don't have a lot of their slugging tied up in homeruns.

Has anyone else noticed this?

When I've played with historical season disks, it seems like certain players tend to 'sim' better than others (guys with the same OPS, RC/27, etc.). Mainly, guys who are good BA, good OBP, low strikeout, and don't have a lot of their slugging tied up in homeruns.

Has anyone else noticed this?

I've actually noticed the opposite - that Ken Phelps All-Star types tend to sim well.

Actually, now that I think about it, Ken Phelps types tend to do either really, really well or really, really poorly, depending on whether or not they can get their homers in.

But to answer your question, I've seen guys like Ichiro! and Don Mattingly and Tony Gwynn have poor years in DMB.

JRE: I see Gwynn do pretty well - as well or better than he should, anyways. Mattingly's career OBP for the game is .344, so he doesn't really fall into the category of what I'm talking about. Maybe I'll look at it in depth some time.

Spivey, when I start running my 1000 sims for the greatest teams project I'll keep all the batting and pitching registers. There'll be a lot of data in there that may be useful for all kinds of players.

One thing I noticed in our league is that the walkaholic infielders like Myer, Yost, Bishop tend to underperform.

Thanks, SG.

Awesome! Zips helped me big time in my stats league. Saved me many hours of logging in stats to a spreadsheet. Give me a couple of days and I will be ready to draft.

Okay - semi silly question. I forgot how to turn off the boxscore auto save option - does it use a lot of hard drive space? I know it sims faster with the boxscore option turned off.

Great stuff, as always. Thanks for all the work. I'll be using these excellent projections for fantasy stuff again this year. This time I might try using them in DMB, running a bunch of sims, and using those stats for things like RBI, Saves, Holds, et cetera. Do people think that would improve accuracy for those things? The downside is I would have to make more assumptions about playing time, and it would eliminate the predictions for people that get called up mid-season.

Perhaps an error - Aaron Harang is without a starter durability rating for the Reds. Can one go in and change that manually?

Perhaps an error - Aaron Harang is without a starter durability rating for the Reds. Can one go in and change that manually?

Yes, it's an error.

You can fix it yourself by doing the following:

Click on View > Organizer > Players (tab at bottom of window that pops up)

Then left click on Harang's name. Then click the modify button on the top of the window. A list of things to modify will come up - press ratings. A list of his ratings you can modify come up. In the pitching category, the first option will be starter durability rating - you should probably set it to fair (Fr).

Yup. The VG was supposed to be in start, not relief. Just go to the organizer and pick modify/ratings.

If the ZIPS opponents batting average numbers already take into account the projected defense behind the player then simulating with diamondmind will double count it. Now how much of an effect this is depends entirely on how much defense is weighed both in terms of the projections and by diamondmind. My intuition is that both are fairly conservative and hence the doublecounting is probably not a very big negative.

Is Juan Rivera truly and Ex fielder in left?

One thing I noticed in our league is that the walkaholic infielders like Myer, Yost, Bishop tend to underperform.

HEY! Quit listing all of my infielders! Me and my five league crowns are offended. That said, I've tended to notice that OBP guys without power tend to lag a bit. That was certainly the case for Bishop and Lu Blue, two original members of my 1927 squad. They just don't get enough walks to make them viable. Buddy Myer, however, was a god!

The biggest thing that affects DMB player seasons in draft leagues is park effects. Dial has complained non-stop (what new?) about Bobby Doerr. But this should show us that Doerr was tremendosly helped by Fenway. When you move him to even a neutral park (Wrigley in the 1930s-1940s for example), then he becomes a .260 hitting gold glover with occassional flashes of power.

Okay - semi silly question. I forgot how to turn off the boxscore auto save option - does it use a lot of hard drive space? I know it sims faster with the boxscore option turned off.

Coastalfan, go into the Organizer and then organization, and then the rules tab. In there you can change the options of what to save. I think it uses about 300 meg of space if you save everything.

So anybody got projected standings, runs scored, runs allowed using this yet?

About 10 sims in. Surprises are how good Tampa may be, and Oakland's superior pitching. Rich Harden is usually the best AL starter.

Dan,
Did ZIPS downgade the Coors Field effect for hitters this year as compared to last year?

Yes - Coors ain't the home run park it used to be, though it's still a big BA park.

Dan

I want to reiterate how great I think this is. I can't really conceive of how much time went into inputing the data.

I have a question about the defensive ratings. What is the source of the defensive ratings.? There seem to be more extreme ratings (Ex and Pr) than in a disk prepared by diamondmind.

Did I give more than DM? I thought I was being conservative. Looking at the excellent ratings. Only leftfield has a good number of EX ratings, but I'm fairly free at rating really good centerfielders at left even if they're not playing there at all.

On the PR side, there are more, but that's in part because again, I'm pretty generous at allowing players to play positions. Looking at 2B for instance, only Ramon Vazquez, Todd Walker, Jose Castillo, and Bobby Hill will play 2B at all in the majors in the future and only 1 or 2 of those guys as a regular.

All the other PR ratings are simply guys who have played a little 2B at some point that could fake 2B in an emergency, like Ty Wigginton or Mike Lamb. And they'll do it pretty badly.

Another thing to remember is that I tend to project a lot of players so there are a lot of players that are too bad to play a position in the majors, guys like Vinny Rottino or Juan Tejeda.

So anybody got projected standings, runs scored, runs allowed using this yet?

Through 100 runs.

High
Team W L RF RA DIV WC DIV% WC% Made% Missed% Wins
American League
East
Toronto 86 76 778 728 41 4 41.0% 3.5% 44.5% 55.5% 104
New York(A) 85 77 822 788 32 6 32.0% 5.5% 37.5% 62.5% 102
Boston 82 80 839 823 23 5 22.5% 4.5% 27.0% 73.0% 97
Baltimore 75 87 766 815 3 1 2.5% 0.5% 3.0% 97.0% 91
Tampa Bay 73 89 744 814 2 1 2.0% 0.5% 2.5% 97.5% 90

Central
Cleveland 92 71 841 734 71 7 71.0% 7.0% 78.0% 22.0% 108
Minnesota 85 77 730 690 19 17 19.0% 17.3% 36.3% 63.7% 98
Chicago(A) 83 79 774 747 10 14 10.0% 13.8% 23.8% 76.2% 99
Detroit 75 87 758 812 0 2 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 98.5% 89
Kansas City 66 96 724 860 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79

West
Oakland 96 66 785 631 74 10 74.0% 10.3% 84.3% 15.7% 109
Los Angeles(A) 87 75 750 699 15 25 14.5% 24.5% 39.0% 61.0% 103
Seattle 81 81 724 760 11 6 11.0% 6.0% 17.0% 83.0% 106
Texas 79 83 802 819 1 5 0.5% 5.0% 5.5% 94.5% 95

National League
East
New York(N) 93 69 790 678 55 15 54.8% 15.0% 69.8% 30.2% 108
Philadelphia 90 72 788 692 32 23 31.8% 22.8% 54.7% 45.3% 104
Atlanta 84 78 774 734 9 15 9.3% 14.5% 23.8% 76.2% 100
Washington 80 82 720 706 4 1 4.0% 1.0% 5.0% 95.0% 101
Florida 46 116 602 976 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 60

Central
St. Louis 94 68 780 655 69 11 68.8% 10.5% 79.3% 20.7% 110
Chicago(N) 87 75 772 713 18 20 17.5% 20.0% 37.5% 62.5% 103
Pittsburgh 84 78 728 704 12 8 12.3% 7.5% 19.8% 80.2% 105
Houston 78 84 696 724 0 2 0.3% 2.0% 2.3% 97.7% 92
Milwaukee 75 87 678 725 1 1 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 98.0% 92
Cincinnati 71 91 767 856 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83

West
San Francisco 85 77 785 743 49 0 48.5% 0.3% 48.8% 51.2% 103
Los Angeles(N) 83 79 741 723 28 2 28.0% 1.5% 29.5% 70.5% 101
Colorado 79 83 801 830 15 1 14.5% 1.3% 15.8% 84.2% 93
Arizona 77 85 730 774 6 2 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 92.0% 98
San Diego 76 86 705 744 3 1 3.0% 0.5% 3.5% 96.5% 89
</pre>

That Marlins line is, interesting.

The pre tags suck since the upgrade.
High
Team W L RF RA DIV WC DIV% WC% Made% Missed% Wins
American League
East
Toronto 86 76 778 728 41 4 41.0% 3.5% 44.5% 55.5% 104
New York(A) 85 77 822 788 32 6 32.0% 5.5% 37.5% 62.5% 102
Boston 82 80 839 823 23 5 22.5% 4.5% 27.0% 73.0% 97
Baltimore 75 87 766 815 3 1 2.5% 0.5% 3.0% 97.0% 91
Tampa Bay 73 89 744 814 2 1 2.0% 0.5% 2.5% 97.5% 90

Central
Cleveland 92 71 841 734 71 7 71.0% 7.0% 78.0% 22.0% 108
Minnesota 85 77 730 690 19 17 19.0% 17.3% 36.3% 63.7% 98
Chicago(A) 83 79 774 747 10 14 10.0% 13.8% 23.8% 76.2% 99
Detroit 75 87 758 812 0 2 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 98.5% 89
Kansas City 66 96 724 860 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79

West
Oakland 96 66 785 631 74 10 74.0% 10.3% 84.3% 15.7% 109
Los Angeles(A) 87 75 750 699 15 25 14.5% 24.5% 39.0% 61.0% 103
Seattle 81 81 724 760 11 6 11.0% 6.0% 17.0% 83.0% 106
Texas 79 83 802 819 1 5 0.5% 5.0% 5.5% 94.5% 95

National League
East
New York(N) 93 69 790 678 55 15 54.8% 15.0% 69.8% 30.2% 108
Philadelphia 90 72 788 692 32 23 31.8% 22.8% 54.7% 45.3% 104
Atlanta 84 78 774 734 9 15 9.3% 14.5% 23.8% 76.2% 100
Washington 80 82 720 706 4 1 4.0% 1.0% 5.0% 95.0% 101
Florida 46 116 602 976 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 60

Central
St. Louis 94 68 780 655 69 11 68.8% 10.5% 79.3% 20.7% 110
Chicago(N) 87 75 772 713 18 20 17.5% 20.0% 37.5% 62.5% 103
Pittsburgh 84 78 728 704 12 8 12.3% 7.5% 19.8% 80.2% 105
Houston 78 84 696 724 0 2 0.3% 2.0% 2.3% 97.7% 92
Milwaukee 75 87 678 725 1 1 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 98.0% 92
Cincinnati 71 91 767 856 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83

West
San Francisco 85 77 785 743 49 0 48.5% 0.3% 48.8% 51.2% 103
Los Angeles(N) 83 79 741 723 28 2 28.0% 1.5% 29.5% 70.5% 101
Colorado 79 83 801 830 15 1 14.5% 1.3% 15.8% 84.2% 93
Arizona 77 85 730 774 6 2 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 92.0% 98
San Diego 76 86 705 744 3 1 3.0% 0.5% 3.5% 96.5% 89
</pre>

That Marlins line is, interesting.

To say the least. ZiPS thinks the 2006 Marlins might be the worst team in the modern era.

And, while I'm not as high on the White Sox' chances as most Sox fans (I think the Indians will probably win the division), I'm fairly confident that they're better than the Twins.

I give up.

The pre tags suck since the upgrade.

Try using the brackets ([]) instead of the carat thingies.

testing -

Ok, let me try that JRE.

Oakland probably benefits most if there's "double-counting" of defense, but I like what I see. Thanks, SG.

I got essentially similar results. It looks like Toronto's moves pushed them over the top. I noticed that their success was largely related to the power numbers of Glaus and Wells. Pitching was consistently good each sim.

Is Juan Rivera truly and Ex fielder in left?

If "Ex" means "Excellent", my vote is "yes".

If defense is double counted, though, New York A and Texas get better, because their run-allowing is being penalized twice.

It really cute that even Pat Gillick says the Phillies can't win the division when it's so obvious that they can. And I know these sims don't even have Madson as a starter, because he doesn't ZIP as one.

SG's sims seem to predict a strong regression to the mean.

I was looking at runs allowed by AL teams, and while ZIPS doesn't predict a real change in total runs allowed (10,720 predicted runs for 2006 v. 10,616 runs actual runs scored in 2005), it does predict that most bad-pitching teams will get better, while most good-pitching teams will get worse.

For instance, ZiPS predicts that the White Sox will allow 129 more runs in 1006 than they did in 2005, a huge jump, and one that I'm doubtful of.

On the other end of the spectrum, ZiPS predicts that Kansas City will allow 75 fewer runs and Tampa Bay will allow 121 fewer runs in 2006, which probably explains why Tampa is simming so well.

Essentially, it seems to predict that all but one AL pitching staff has a "true ERA" somewhere between 4.00 and 5.00, which I guess might make sense.

A notable exception - Oakland. ZiPS predicts that Oakland's pitching/defense will actually improve somewhat (27 fewer runs allowed next season). That seems hard to believe.

Do remember that this is the first build - I'd much prefer SG do the official sims with a later build.

Yeah, I wouldn't consider these official. This is just a trial run. There's a lot of roster churn still to come. I'll re-run them again in spring training and compare it to Diamond Mind's.

I'm shocked by Oakland so far though. They seem to be the strongest team in the AL. I was also surprised by Pittsburgh. There may be hope in the Steel City.

Just guessing, but I'll bet depth is what gives Oakland such a strong average showing. They have about the lowest difference between high win output and average, and I'd bet they're #1 in the difference between low win output and average. Out of a hundred seasons, every team is going to have a handful of years decimated by injuries and/or surprisingly bad pitching ... but Oakland's quality depth in the rotation, bullpen, corners, and centerfield would probably keep them afloat and in the race in these seasons, whereas other teams would lose 15 or 20 games from their average showing.

I'd love to see the numbers from Seattle and Pittsburgh's big years. Must have been King Felix and Duke going '85 Gooden on the league.

Out of a hundred seasons, every team is going to have a handful of years decimated by injuries and/or surprisingly bad pitching ... but Oakland's quality depth in the rotation, bullpen, corners, and centerfield would probably keep them afloat and in the race in these seasons, whereas other teams would lose 15 or 20 games from their average showing.

Your point is well-taken, but you should know that injuries are a very small factor in DMB. Even with injuries turned on, it's rare to see a player lose more than a few days to injury, and I've never seen a player lose more than about a month.

It's something to consider when you look at older teams like the Yankees or Giants.

For instance, ZiPS predicts that the White Sox will allow 129 more runs in 1006 than they did in 2005, a huge jump, and one that I'm doubtful of.

The White Sox projected 5 starters had a 3.69 ERA in 2005, collectively. In 2004, however, those same 5 starters had a 4.54 ERA. I think some regression should be expected. Cotts will likely regress some. They also lost Rowand, which will hurt.

A notable exception - Oakland. ZiPS predicts that Oakland's pitching/defense will actually improve somewhat (27 fewer runs allowed next season). That seems hard to believe.

Loaiza replacing Saarloos should cancel out some of the regression from Haren and Blanton. Harden should get more starts, and they have Saarloos taking the replacement starts now instead of Etherton, Glynn, and Kennedy.

The bullpen should be very good again. Saarloos' improvement over Cruz/Yabu should cancel out regression from Street.

The defense looks to be improved with more playing time for Crosby and Ellis instead of Scutaro, Payton replacing a half season of Byrnes/Kielty, Bradley should be better than Swisher in RF, and Swisher is supposedly pretty good at 1B. If Kotsya improves from his down year, they should have a great defense.

I certainly don't expect the A's to lead the league in RA by that large a margin, but they should be near the best in pitching/defense.

I have to disagree about the A's being deep in the corners, though. An injury to an OF, Swisher, or Johnson means Kielty/Perez at DH. Unless they sign Thomas AND he can stay healthy...

The White Sox projected 5 starters had a 3.69 ERA in 2005, collectively. In 2004, however, those same 5 starters had a 4.54 ERA. I think some regression should be expected. Cotts will likely regress some. They also lost Rowand, which will hurt.

The key for the White Sox will be their defense. I agree that losing Rowand hurts (possibly more than Thome will help), but otherwise, the entire defense is returning, and I don't think the difference between Aaron Rowand and Brian Anderson is over 100 runs.

I fully expect some regression, but not the dramatic difference that ZiPS projects. I'd actually be interested to see how Dan graded the White Sox defense.

As for the bullpen, while Cotts (and to a lesser extent, Politte) should regress somewhat (although I think they'll both still be useful) and I'll be surprised if Dustin Hermanson is useful at all, but they're getting a full season from Bobby Jenks, I like Jeff Bajenaru more than ZiPS does, and Brandon McCarthy will give them the solid long man that they were missing all last season.

Loaiza replacing Saarloos should cancel out some of the regression from Haren and Blanton. Harden should get more starts, and they have Saarloos taking the replacement starts now instead of Etherton, Glynn, and Kennedy.

I don't like Blanton or Loaiza as much as ZiPS does. In fact, I don't think it's at all guaranteed that he'll be better in 2006 than Saarloos was in 2005 (108 ERA+).

But that's all just quibbling. I don't doubt the A's will be very, very good at preventing runs in 2006. I was just surprised that ZiPS thinks they'll be even better than they were last year, because a lot went right for the A's in that regard.

Pierzynski - AV/FR Arm
Konerko - FR
Iguchi - VG
Crede - AV
Uribe - AV
Pods - VG
Anderson - AV
Dye - VG

Dan, how do you rate the A's defenders (is that in the spreadsheet somewhere)?

Pierzynski - AV/FR Arm
Konerko - FR
Iguchi - VG
Crede - AV
Uribe - AV
Pods - VG
Anderson - AV
Dye - VG

This is what I'd have -

Pierzynski - AV/FR
Konerko - AV (he really did look better last year)
Iguchi - AV
Uribe - VG (although I'd toy with EX)
Crede - VG (alghough I'd bump him down to AV if I gave Uribe an EX)
Podsednik - AV/FR
Anderson - AV/AV (mainly because I have very little idea what he can do out there)
Dye - AV/VG (I was impressed with his throwing ability)

I have A's as best defensive team, I believe.

C - Kendall - AV/FR arm
1B - Swisher - VG
2B - Ellis - EX
3B - Chaves - VG
SS - Crosby - VG
LF - Kielty/Payton - AV/VG
CF - Kotsay - AV
RF - Bradley - EX (I might change this down to a VG)

I gave Dye and Anderson VG arms and Pods FR.