BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 3 Decades of Minor League Translations

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1. I Can See For Aaron Miles Posted: September 11, 2009 at 12:37 AM (#3319359)

OK, that's worth some dough. Do I have to have a Paypal account?

2. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 11, 2009 at 12:44 AM (#3319362)

No, you don't need a Paypal account.

3. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:10 AM (#3319378)

Very cool, Dan - you've even tossed '09 in there...

4. AROM Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:24 AM (#3319380)

This is super cool. Thanks Dan.

5. AROM Posted: September 11, 2009 at 01:55 AM (#3319390)

Are the MLE's to a neutral MLB environment, or to the specific MLB team? In other words, if I were to compare a minor leaguer in Colorado's system to one in San Diego's, do I need to make further adjustments?

Scanning through the list I see Adam Hyzdu with an MLE of 41 homers for 2000, in a year where he actually hit 31 - can that be right?

I'll have to check but I think I have stats for 1990 SAL. If I do I'll send them to you. At the very least I have them in a copy of that year's Baseball America Almanac.

6. Frisco Cali Posted: September 11, 2009 at 02:05 AM (#3319395)

Just when I was wondering what to do for the next couple years...

7. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 11, 2009 at 02:39 AM (#3319408)

Scanning through the list I see Adam Hyzdu with an MLE of 41 homers for 2000, in a year where he actually hit 31 - can that be right?

Nobody seemed to hit homers at Blair County. Here are the multipliers for Altoona at that time (and these are already essentially cut in half from the factors!)

1999: 0.79
2000: 0.77
2001: 0.79
2002: 0.81
2003: 0.70

Essentially, Petco Park squared. You add in the fact that 2000 was about the time between the biggest difference between major and minor league home run rate in recent years and you get a pretty nice conversion.

Hyzdu, of course, never played that well before or again. His translations those years:

1996: 274/348/478
1997: 247/337/410
1998: 271/325/408
1999: 273/333/517
2000: 273/375/581 (the 41 HR MLE year)
2001: 244/286/412
2002: 240/308/423

What you're pretty much looking at is a legitimate, but definitely non-star hitter having a big career year at the wrong place and time. Kind of like 2000's Ryan Ludwick but the Pirates were too stupid and Cam Bonifay had signed KY Jelly Roll at 1B.

The Pirates finally gave him sort-of playing time years too late. Didn't help that he was a terrible pinch-hitter, like most players:

Starter (271 PA): 250/325/496
Sub (136 PA): 186/281/322
Pinch-Hitter (71 PA): 190/324/293

Average player loses about 150 points of OPS as a pinch-hitter.

8. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: September 11, 2009 at 03:41 AM (#3319431)

I guess this means we should invest in this Chip Cannon fellow.

Seriously, this is awesome Dan.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 11, 2009 at 03:59 AM (#3319439)

Oops, that Chip Cannon line should be removed for now.

For those that are wondering, he's translated to have 26162 hits in 30 at-bats and score 3666 runs. I must have got an errant keystroke in there.

10. He's Bought a Bat Like Prince Fielder Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:01 AM (#3319440)

This is 18 kinds of awesome and a pogostick.

I'm the guy that sent you $33, or $1 for each year.

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:02 AM (#3319441)

I think I owe you a buck then - 1978-2009 is only 32 seasons!

12. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:05 AM (#3319443)

WTF got into Ruben Gotay this year? RUBEN GOTAY WALKED 102 TIMES IN THE MINORS!

13. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: September 11, 2009 at 05:19 AM (#3319459)

Gotay always had a good walk rate for a middle infielder

14. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: September 11, 2009 at 05:25 AM (#3319460)

The pitchers were scared of him, obviously.

15. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: September 11, 2009 at 09:53 AM (#3319475)

Ah, this is PERFECT data for a paper I am writing for a law school seminar. You'll definitely get a HT in the acknowledgments.

16. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 11, 2009 at 03:14 PM (#3319699)

I haven't gotten to look at this in depth yet (and won't for a few days) but - just focusing on '09 for now - some of the low/lower minor league hitting translations are kinder than I'd expect (I mention this now having just seen Nick Derba's AA BA of .130 in Springfield translate up to .186 ... I guessing because of some BABIP regression?).
Would you (or have you - haven't gotten to peek at the PF file at all yet) consider supplying a league factors tab?
***
Separate fun: Roberto Petagine MLEs, through the '90s...
'91: .236/.305/.355 in 462 AB with Burlington (MWL) <note - there's an error here - they were an Astros affiliate>
'92: .247/.316/.407 in 396 AB with Osceola/Jackson
'93: .259/.355/.396 in 455 AB with Jackson
'94: .237/.315/.399 in 253 AB with Tuscon
'95: .190/.319/.310 in 58 AB with Las Vegas (now in the Padres org)
'96: .255/.352/.413 in 322 AB with Norfolk (Mets AAA)
'97: .275/.370/.501 in 461 AB with Norfolk
'98: .274/.369/.476 in 376 AB with Indianapolis (Reds AAA)

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 11, 2009 at 03:39 PM (#3319716)

BABIP simply cannot go lower past a certain point (the .210-.230 for pitchers is just about the baseline). I regress towards the mean less for BABIP than I would normally; in-season regression towards the mean is significantly less than season-to-season regression for the same original sample of PA.

18. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 11, 2009 at 04:17 PM (#3319753)

Ok.

My inclination is that we ought not regress much (if any) for BABIP in the context of MLEs (as distinct from projections, where we should) ... but I can implement that when I present my set of MLEs, sometime around the year 2150.

19. AROM Posted: September 11, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3319883)

Dan,

I checked and don't have the 1990 SAL in my database. I do have it in the BA Almanac though. If I decide to do the data entry on that one, I'll shoot you a copy. No guarantee as to when, since I've got a THT Annual article to write and volunteered to do some batting logs for retrosheet which I need to get to work on.

20. KJOK Posted: September 11, 2009 at 10:46 PM (#3320129)

The MLE file is great, although I have the same question as AROM as to whether these are all 'neutral' MLE's or MLE's into the parent team's park and league.

On the minor league park factor link, I just seem to get a bunch of html files?

21. KJOK Posted: September 11, 2009 at 11:23 PM (#3320167)

and the next question is, how hard is this to do? If I gave you a dataset with a Japanese League year, or Korean League, or Cuban League, or Netherlands, is it easy to just plug the data in and have it spit out some results?

22. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: September 11, 2009 at 11:54 PM (#3320192)

Not to speak for Dan but...
...the trick would be (apart from stuff specific to his current model, as I understand it) that those are relatively closed systems - not much movement b/w them and the NA. If you do have that data + an estimate/assumption as to how strong the league is (+ are willing to agree w/ certain implicit assumptions about how various skills translate from setting to setting) - then the model he put out on BBTF (where you enter the stats, team, and year) would be pretty easily customized to your liking. [For instance, I was using it at one point to validate my own Cuban League translations.]

23. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: September 12, 2009 at 12:18 AM (#3320205)

sorry - incomplete thought ...
the OLD model he used to use that people could download maybe 2 or 3 yrs back could be customized easily. can't speak for the current one.

24. KJOK Posted: September 12, 2009 at 01:58 AM (#3320258)

You already have Cuban League translations?! What years?

25. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: September 12, 2009 at 02:16 AM (#3320266)

I've done them on an ad-hoc basis, never tried to do the whole league + I can't say I had a lot of confidence in them (I came up with 2 estimates for Alexei his rookie yr - one I posted here (google it and frown), the other (which was closer) I sat on. Think I posted one for Viciedo as well. I plan on doing one for Yasser Gomez in a month or two. [I don't have a formal Cuban model - it's more like an subjective sim score type thing.]
If you dig around the internet, you can find a spare one here or there from Clay D as well.
I *think* but don't know, that Sackmann messed around w/ Dutch data at one point - could easily be something I'm making up, though.

Again, your best bet might be to find Dan's old .xls model - tweak it (it's gonna need tweaks - for instance, standard K/W relationships won't apply], give it your inputs, then run from there. This assumes you have Cuban stats handy - if not, they're online (at least were - haven't looked in awhile) but the connection (Cuban servers) is terrible.

If nothing else, this is a good place for someone with a little time on their hands to become the web's "expert" w/o too much competition.

26. KJOK Posted: September 12, 2009 at 02:22 AM (#3320271)

I grabbed the Cuban stats, as the Cuban website is down most of the time (all of the time now it appears). I'd like to do at least the WBC players, if not the whole league, whenever I can find some time.

27. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: September 12, 2009 at 02:44 AM (#3320283)

Cool - how many years worth? Depending on where you went they've got fielding by position (by inning), platoon stats, etc...kinda nice to see.
I'd bet money Davenport took a crack at the WBC guys already, though I'm not a subscriber so I don't know for certain.

28. KJOK Posted: September 12, 2009 at 03:08 AM (#3320292)

I managed to get 2005-06 season thru 2008-09 season. I'm not 100% sure what some categories headings are (they're in Spanish of course). Davenport did do something for Cuba with WBC2006 I think but never heard him doing WBC2009...

29. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 12, 2009 at 03:42 AM (#3320310)

I had too much regression in the old model, so don't use that. I've moved a lot of that to the projections.

If anyone needs an actual zMLE spreadsheet for research use, drop me a line at dan@baseballprimer.com and I'll send you a copy.

The reason I use regressed $H (but only moderately) is that people are more aware of regression and do a lot of that with things like FIP for actual MLB lines, so a line with $H regression makes sense. After all, when you see a guy with a .380 $H translation because of no regression, most people who care about that sort of thing are going to mentally push that down anyway.

Blurring the line too much between translation and projection is why I've backed off on some of the regression in the last couple of years, so people who have my older MLEs will notice a difference.

30. StillFlash Posted: September 12, 2009 at 03:02 PM (#3320408)

KJOK, would you be kind enough to send me a copy of the Cuban stats?
brian.cartwright2@verizon.net

Here is a link to an English/Spanish glossary
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/stats/page.jsp?ymd=20080121&content_id=340901&vkey=stats_l125&fext;=.jsp&sid=l125

I've had it verified by a front office person that www.beisbolcubano.cu is blocked in the US.

beisbolcubano.cubasi.cu is available, and a few weeks ago had a page for each player, but now 'Estadisticas' links to Granma, which lists all the players, but not all the stats (like BB & SO for batters).
http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/eventos/48serie/playoff/datos/epo-estad.html

Only the 8 playoff teams (out fo 16 total)
http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/eventos/48serie/playoff/datos/epo-clasificados.html

31. Der_K is getting more dogmatic. Posted: September 13, 2009 at 01:11 AM (#3320618)

For Serie 48, you may like: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12278257/EstadIsticas-48-Snb

32. puck Posted: September 13, 2009 at 02:59 AM (#3320654)

Are the MLE's to a neutral MLB environment, or to the specific MLB team? In other words, if I were to compare a minor leaguer in Colorado's system to one in San Diego's, do I need to make further adjustments?

Has Dan answered this question yet?

33. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 13, 2009 at 03:25 AM (#3320658)

Oh, sorry, it's for the MLB environment of the parent club (team/park).

34. bob gaj Posted: September 15, 2009 at 03:23 PM (#3322266)

gotta look at this stuff later today, especially doug frobel and brad komminsk...

(obv, thanks!)

35. bucbeatle Posted: September 15, 2009 at 08:01 PM (#3322685)

I seem to have incomplete data. I don't have excel, so I needed to open with Open Office. I have over 65,000 lines of data in each sheet (hitters and pitchers), but the hitters only goes to Patrick Grady and the pitchers to Steve Parris. Any ideas?

36. bob gaj Posted: September 15, 2009 at 08:11 PM (#3322712)

can you post in office 00?

37. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 15, 2009 at 08:20 PM (#3322726)

bucbeatle - the '07 version won't work with openoffice, but the '03 one should.

38. bucbeatle Posted: September 15, 2009 at 08:27 PM (#3322738)

Der Komminsk-sar, thanks for the info. I found out I do have limited excel and was able to open it using microsoft works. Since I can't sort with the excel, I may try the '03 one.

39. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 15, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3322742)

Bob, I'll make some csvs.

40. bucbeatle Posted: September 15, 2009 at 08:32 PM (#3322747)

Thanks for the help. The '03 version worked.

41. bob gaj Posted: September 15, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3322813)

thanks dan!

42. puck Posted: September 15, 2009 at 09:51 PM (#3322860)

In the 2003 version, is anyone else missing pitching for say, '88 Omaha, '89 Omaha, and '90 Indianapolis?

43. Kyle S at work Posted: September 16, 2009 at 01:33 AM (#3323098)

Hi Dan -
This looks really neat. I would have spent days and/or weeks with it back when I had time to do my own research. Sigh.

A question: what is the source of the minor league data? Is it publicly available somewhere? Lots of folks seem to have it but there is no equivalent (that I've ever found) of the Lahman database for minor league stats.

44. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 16, 2009 at 03:15 AM (#3323172)

Puck, there's some missing pitcher data that I'll be adding, mostly American Association pitcher data, so those 8 teams will have holes for a few more weeks.

45. puck Posted: September 16, 2009 at 04:32 AM (#3323189)

Thanks, Dan. I just happened to be looking up Steve Fireovid who was in the AA quite a bit in the late 80's. Finally got a copy of 26th Man and read it.

46. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 16, 2009 at 01:25 PM (#3323353)

How is that book, btw?

47. Jeff Sackmann Posted: September 16, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3323835)

I *think* but don't know, that Sackmann messed around w/ Dutch data at one point - could easily be something I'm making up, though.

Dutch girls, yes. Dutch data, no.

48. Mike Emeigh

Posted: September 16, 2009 at 07:22 PM (#3323850)

Lots of folks seem to have it but there is no equivalent (that I've ever found) of the Lahman database for minor league stats.

It's a work in progress, started by SABR's Minor League Committee and now available through Baseball Reference.

-- MWE

49. Dan Szymborski

Posted: September 16, 2009 at 07:24 PM (#3323853)

Update: American Association pitching and Oklahoma 1997-1999 pitching are up.

Please continue to let me know when things are missing (that I haven't already said I know about).

50. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 16, 2009 at 08:23 PM (#3323941)

Jeff: well, you win, we don't. :)

51. bob gaj Posted: September 17, 2009 at 11:04 PM (#3325400)

thanks dan!

52. shoewizard Posted: October 09, 2009 at 05:25 PM (#3346535)

In looking at the 2008 Park Factors Spreadsheet, I don't see Vero Beach listed for that year. That was the Tampa Bay affiliate in the FSL in 2008. Am I missing something ?

Thanks Dan.

53. sliver7 Posted: March 03, 2010 at 04:00 AM (#3471450)

Also in relation to the (Devil) Rays: TB fielded minor league teams in both 1996 and 1997. I'm not seeing any entries for anything earlier than 1998 for any of TB's system.

1996:
GCL Devil Rays (R/Gulf Coast League)
Butte Copper Kings (R+/Pioneer League)

1997:
GCL Devil Rays (R/Gulf Coast League)
Princeton Devil Rays (R+/Appalachian League)
Hudson Valley Renegades (SS A/New York-Penn League; I think it was co-op with Texas that year)
Charleston RiverDogs (A/South Atlantic League)
St. Petersburg Devil Rays (A+/Florida State League)

54. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 27, 2010 at 03:20 PM (#3649512)

Just want to remind people that Dan doing this was/is awesome.

55. flournoy Posted: September 27, 2010 at 03:35 PM (#3649522)

I guess this means we should invest in this Chip Cannon fellow.

I played against him in mens league ball last year after he retired from professional ball. If I remember correctly, we got him out on a long fly ball to deep center, and then he hit two homers that totaled about 1000 feet. Nice guy, though.

56. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 27, 2010 at 04:33 PM (#3649587)

Odd question, but how well did he run - relative to your league. Issue with a club foot hurt him in the draft/field.

57. flournoy Posted: September 27, 2010 at 05:03 PM (#3649621)

He certainly moves around fine, though he's not fast. Of course I only got to see him trot. Can't give you much more than that; I don't know anything about his club foot.

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