BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Astros - Signed Erstad for No Particular Reason

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1. johnny_mostil Posted: December 28, 2007 at 03:30 AM (#2654929)

Is that projection assuming he's healthy (right...) or hurt? And does it take into account his spectacular "grinder-ness"? Ed Wade is no fool. He knows you win baseball games by sheer willpower and Jedi mind tricks.

2. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: December 28, 2007 at 03:35 AM (#2654934)

I'd rather have the ####### peanuts.

3. Chris Hansen, NBC Dateline Posted: December 28, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2654947)

Erstad's stats don't matter! His red-assed toughness is good enough for at least 20, no 30, wins!

Oi, I can't wait for the Sports Justice article on this one.

4. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 28, 2007 at 03:50 AM (#2654952)

Yeah but it will be a gritty .224.

5. Justin T contains indigenous nudity Posted: December 28, 2007 at 03:58 AM (#2654960)

The surprising thing about the Bhutto assassination was that it took this long to happen.

6. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:24 AM (#2654984)

Pretty good BB/K ratio, you know. Good eye, you can't teach that. As he ages and fills out a bit, he should develop more power. I think Jason Giambi is a good comp here.

7. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:31 AM (#2654994)

Wow, there's really going to be stiff competition for the job of igniter. Pence, Bourn, Erstad, Matsui...Carlos Lee could hit 40 home runs, score 50 runs and get 50 RBIs.

For a true multicultural bonding experience they need a Latin igniter as well. I suggest Timo Perez.

8. NJ is feeling better Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:36 AM (#2654995)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA. Never have I laughed this much at a projection. This is really quite humorous. A .576 OPS is his median projection. LMAO, indeed.

9. AJM Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:38 AM (#2654996)

His red-assed toughness is good enough for at least 20, no 30, wins!

Well, his red-assed toughness sure can't provide less value than his offense.

10. Greg Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:04 AM (#2655012)

I actually physically gagged after reading that projection

It was entirely involuntary

That's never happened before

11. Robert S. Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:19 AM (#2655029)

How's his curveball?

12. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:27 AM (#2655032)

Showalter would have him out on a mound right now, throwing sidearm. And if he's successful . . . a middle reliever, which you can't get enough of.

13. lincarnate Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:34 AM (#2655035)

I like how Erstad's projection is so bad, it'd only be worth it to the Astros if he paid them a million dollars. Awesome.

That said, I actually expect him to hit his optimistic projection (with a higher batting average, something like .270 or .280) and get a 3 year, $15 million extension. If that's not the worst case scenario, I don't know what is.

14. Gern Blanston Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2655037)

A mid-range projection OPS+ of 50. Jesus H. Christ. I didn't think he was THAT bad.

15. I can't believe we're playing Francoeur(KevinHess) Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:44 AM (#2655045)

Oh, man...his #### is moldy bananas.

16. Padraic Posted: December 28, 2007 at 03:56 PM (#2655194)

Erstad is terrible, but I can't see why the projection would be *that* low. For one, the mean SLG is 40 points below his worst season. A 50 OPS+ is also way worse than anything he has done so far (save a 95 AB season of 57).

I mean, I wouldn't expect anything above 65-70 (and at that level, anything still sucks), but I am curious why he falls so far.

Also, is there a Taguchi projection? I count my blessings that the Phils signed him over Erstad.

Thanks for the great work.

17. The Piehole of David Wells, Red Sox Colostomy Bag

Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:07 PM (#2655205)

what's the WMV stat? i looked it up but can't find it.

18. AROM Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:08 PM (#2655206)

Erstad is terrible, but I can't see why the projection would be *that* low. For one, the mean SLG is 40 points below his worst season.

I can't see him being that bad. His slugging% the last 3 years: .335, .326, .371 He's going to the National League, that should help him some. That projection looks like a good hitting pitcher.

19. The Piehole of David Wells, Red Sox Colostomy Bag

Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:17 PM (#2655211)

Erstad is terrible, but I can't see why the projection would be *that* low. For one, the mean SLG is 40 points below his worst season. A 50 OPS+ is also way worse than anything he has done so far (save a 95 AB season of 57).

he's been pretty terrible the last few years. he posted a 68 last year in 300+ AB, so 50 is not that impossible. zips seems to be conservative in its projections, which i think i would want in a projection system.

chone has erstad at .675 ops, which lines up with the zips optimistic projection.

20. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2655213)

The following was posted by Walt Davis in the Dontrelle Willis TO, it didn't get a reply but it seemed worthy of one:

"Value" (in whatever terms) is dependent on playing time and, as we all know, ZIPS is not a playing time projection system. Presumably we would use RAR and $ value to more fully discuss whether it was a good signing/trade, but we'd be relying on projected numbers ZIPS isn't designed to produce.

Is it true that RAR and WMV are dependent on playing time?

21. bbc is prejudice bout men Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2655215)

he's just orlando palmeiro all over again only a couple years younger

but you are overlooking the fact that his LIFETIME BA is .284 and that's what is really important here

22. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:20 PM (#2655218)

Is it true that RAR and WMV are dependent on playing time?

Yeah, which is why I've hesitated about providing these numbers. I've decided to err on the side of providing more stuff and allowing people to consider it how they may, but I'm also considering not doing it after all and going back to the simpler report.

23. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:26 PM (#2655228)

If you were to go ahead and provide the PT-dependent numbers, then what's the best way for users to interpret the playing time disclaimer?

24. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:27 PM (#2655230)

That should be, "what would be the best way for users to interpret the playing time disclaimer?"

25. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 28, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2655233)

Yeah, which is why I've hesitated about providing these numbers. I've decided to err on the side of providing more stuff and allowing people to consider it how they may, but I'm also considering not doing it after all and going back to the simpler report.

Is there any way you could simply fix the number of PAs for position players? I imagine it would be a lot tougher to do this for pitchers' playing time.

26. standuptriple Posted: December 28, 2007 at 06:54 PM (#2655370)

Maybe the Astros plan on doing a lot of punting in '08.

27. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: December 28, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2655437)

While we're at it, no ZIPS for Prior's 2008 season in SD? What's the over/under on IP, 12?

28. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 08:06 PM (#2655501)

A few weeks ago or so, there was a thread where some agreed that the O/U on GS should be 10, I think.

Actually, we may have talking about Pedro. Or Harden. Or maybe Burnett.

29. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 08:10 PM (#2655509)

Dan, why not just rewrite the ZiPS disclaimer in words similar to what your FAQ says about estimated production and PT?

30. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 08:16 PM (#2655514)

Actually, the estimated production part is pretty well covered in the disclaimer. But, there still seems to be a fence around PT.

I'm starting to wonder if the "ZiPS doesn't project playing time" mantra is akin to the DIPS 1.0 perspective, in that it's not really true anymore (if it ever was), but nobody has really come out and said that.

31. SouthSideRyan Posted: December 28, 2007 at 08:19 PM (#2655522)

Nah that was Prior, OT. I brought it up, I might've been the only one that wanted the over on that.

32. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2655533)

SSR, was it 10 GS, or 15?

33. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 28, 2007 at 08:28 PM (#2655542)

#27: BTW, you can't use "ZIPS" if you are talking about ZiPS.

From the ZiPS Q&A;:

Q. Why is the 'I' in ZiPS lowercase?

A. Because ZIPS looks like some bad shoe at Wal-Mart for little kids while ZiPS totally reminds me of CHiPs. Which is way cooler for a reason I can't put my finger on.

It's that important.

34. SkyKing162 Posted: December 28, 2007 at 09:12 PM (#2655620)

Hey, defense matters, too. If the man can still play an above-average left field, he could hit like a replacement player and still have value. Of course, I'm not sure the Astros needed another guy like that.

35. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 29, 2007 at 03:50 PM (#2656212)

Erstad could certainly play an above-average left field, but if you only need someone to hit better than Erstad, playing an above-average left becomes a decidedly non-rare attribute.

36. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 29, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2656239)

I'll go ahead and post this, so Dan can just copy and paste this for Erstad in July.

37. mr. man Posted: December 30, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2656634)

if the deal is that erstad pays the astros $1M, this is a good deal.

38. TheBoneMan Posted: December 31, 2007 at 04:55 AM (#2657167)

if the deal is that erstad pays the astros $1M, this is a good deal.

You mean for Erstad, right? That would still be a bad deal for the Astros. I'm sure that Garth Brooks (or some other ridiculously wealthy, self-styled "athlete") would beat that number for a spot on the roster.

39. BeanoCook Posted: January 02, 2008 at 08:29 AM (#2658156)

The surprising thing about the Bhutto assassination was that it took this long to happen.

I agree. The terrorists have been decimated by iraq. Tens of thousands of their best have been killed there.

40. JPWF13

Posted: January 02, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2658217)

I agree. The terrorists have been decimated by iraq.

Keep drinking that kool-aid if it makes you feel better

41. Paul The Paranoid Android Posted: January 10, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2664948)

I agree. The terrorists have been decimated by iraq.

Obviously not. I mean, if this signing doesn't indicate that the terrorists have already won, I don't know what does.

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