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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Astros - Signed Erstad for No Particular Reason
Houston Astros - Signed "Baseball Player" Darin ErstadThis is reportedly worth $1 million. If you ignore the fact that Darin Erstad can't play Major League Baseball, the fact that Ed Wade can't manage a Major League Baseball team, and money can exchanged for good and services, this is a terrific signing.
I Get Mail!
SYMBORSKY WHAT HAPPENED YOU USE TO BE FUNNY NOW YOUR JUST A PUSSIE RAPTORS RULE
OK, the Astros have as much chance of seeing October as Pakistan's government.
Is that mean enough or do I have to make a joke involving, say, Hiroshima survivors?
Or even worse, print project Erstad?
2008 ZiPS Projection - Darin Erstad
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ RAR DR WMV ($M)
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Projection 214 19 48 9 1 1 19 18 32 3 .224 .286 .290 50 -9 7 -0.95
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Opt. (15%) 284 31 72 16 2 4 30 30 34 7 .257 .329 .370 80 1 10 2.30
Pes. (15%) 175 12 34 5 0 0 10 12 31 2 .194 .246 .223 23 -12 3 -3.30
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Top Offensive Comps: Dave May (when he stopped being good), Tom Goodwin (in his "down" years)
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Oi, I can't wait for the Sports Justice article on this one.
For a true multicultural bonding experience they need a Latin igniter as well. I suggest Timo Perez.
Well, his red-assed toughness sure can't provide less value than his offense.
It was entirely involuntary
That's never happened before
That said, I actually expect him to hit his optimistic projection (with a higher batting average, something like .270 or .280) and get a 3 year, $15 million extension. If that's not the worst case scenario, I don't know what is.
I mean, I wouldn't expect anything above 65-70 (and at that level, anything still sucks), but I am curious why he falls so far.
Also, is there a Taguchi projection? I count my blessings that the Phils signed him over Erstad.
Thanks for the great work.
I can't see him being that bad. His slugging% the last 3 years: .335, .326, .371 He's going to the National League, that should help him some. That projection looks like a good hitting pitcher.
he's been pretty terrible the last few years. he posted a 68 last year in 300+ AB, so 50 is not that impossible. zips seems to be conservative in its projections, which i think i would want in a projection system.
chone has erstad at .675 ops, which lines up with the zips optimistic projection.
"Value" (in whatever terms) is dependent on playing time and, as we all know, ZIPS is not a playing time projection system. Presumably we would use RAR and $ value to more fully discuss whether it was a good signing/trade, but we'd be relying on projected numbers ZIPS isn't designed to produce.
Is it true that RAR and WMV are dependent on playing time?
but you are overlooking the fact that his LIFETIME BA is .284 and that's what is really important here
Yeah, which is why I've hesitated about providing these numbers. I've decided to err on the side of providing more stuff and allowing people to consider it how they may, but I'm also considering not doing it after all and going back to the simpler report.
Is there any way you could simply fix the number of PAs for position players? I imagine it would be a lot tougher to do this for pitchers' playing time.
Actually, we may have talking about Pedro. Or Harden. Or maybe Burnett.
I'm starting to wonder if the "ZiPS doesn't project playing time" mantra is akin to the DIPS 1.0 perspective, in that it's not really true anymore (if it ever was), but nobody has really come out and said that.
From the ZiPS Q&A;:
Q. Why is the 'I' in ZiPS lowercase?
A. Because ZIPS looks like some bad shoe at Wal-Mart for little kids while ZiPS totally reminds me of CHiPs. Which is way cooler for a reason I can't put my finger on.
It's that important.
You mean for Erstad, right? That would still be a bad deal for the Astros. I'm sure that Garth Brooks (or some other ridiculously wealthy, self-styled "athlete") would beat that number for a spot on the roster.
I agree. The terrorists have been decimated by iraq. Tens of thousands of their best have been killed there.
Keep drinking that kool-aid if it makes you feel better
Obviously not. I mean, if this signing doesn't indicate that the terrorists have already won, I don't know what does.
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