Would you say the Sox sold low on Vazquez, Dan?

That's a flattering set of comps for Vazquez.

Which one is Worse Alex Gonzalez?

There really isn't anything about Gilmore that is a 1b prospect. Any teenage 3b has a chance to not stick there but the word is that Gilmore's athleticism and arm are better than most.

Which one is Worse Alex Gonzalez?

Ask Cub fans.

Should've read 3B (I got it right at the top!).

####, that Flowers projection is probably better than what Varitek will hit next year...

A 117 ERA+ isn't a "mid-rotation" starter, it's a #1 in a weak rotation or a #2 in a strong one. Does ZiPS take any account of Vázquez's below-average performance with runners on base?

A 117 ERA+ isn't a "mid-rotation" starter, it's a #1 in a weak rotation or a #2 in a strong one.

Yeah, that was a little silly - I was still thinking of Vazquez's ERA last year rather than the projection!


Does ZiPS take any account of Vázquez's below-average performance with runners on base?


Only indirectly. I try to not include things that I can't count on getting for everybody.

Top Comps: Jim Bunning

Is Vazquez even eligible to run for the Senate? If so, he couldn't be any worse.

Nice pickup for the Braves. Flowers is the only real prize going the other way here, unless Lillibridge rebounds significantly, and the Braves need a guy in the rotation to give them some innings a lot more than they need another option at catcher in the event of a McCann injury.

Vazquez is reliable in that you know he'll give you 200-ish innings or more, and those innings will be league-average at worst. Best case is that the move back to the NL will help him rebound a bit from last year. He's maintained the ability to strike people out and keep the walks down throughout his career, but he's also got a maddening habit of surrenduring the gopher ball at the worst times. The archetypal Vazquez Good Game is a 3-2 loss characterized by 7 innings of fairly dominant pitching punctuated by a random 3-run homer that drives in 3 of the only 6 baserunners he allows.

Mid rotation starter comparable to Jim Bunning and Mike Mussina. Cool.

Maybe I'm drunk, but this deal actually looks good from both sides. The Braves get the starter they want without giving up any pieces that aren't reasonably expendable to them. The White Sox get value out of Vazquez when it was pretty clear that he wasn't going to be back with Ozzie, mainly with Flowers, but Gilmore and Rogriguez are lottery tickets. Lillibridge has been seriously downgraded, but they got Gavin Floyd that way, why not take another flier on a former high-end prospect who's slipped?

I don't think Lillibridge was ever a "high-end" prospect, except by PECOTA.

12,
Agreed. I like/liked Lilli but he was always more "interesting" or "good" as a prospect than studly. Floyd was a former top 5 pick with some serious stuff. Lilli is 5-9 and looks like a goblin. Hes got some nice things about him... he is gritty, athletic, can run and play good D at SS or CF. He's an overachiever who can occasionally hit like a man twice his size but you've got to be pretty damn special from a natural hitting talent standpoint to be able to make his offensive approach (big swing) work at the MLB level when you're that tiny.
He very well might make it work, I could see him having some Khalil Greene kind of years, but that still doesn't make him "high-end" or comparable to a guy drafted in front of Teixera.

Also, I love Boone Logan from a personal standpoint. 20th round pick from a Texas JUCO who spends THREE DAMN YEARS in the Pioneer League. Has anyone ever spent 3 years in the Pioneer League and still made the bigs? Usually guys who spend even 2 years there get cut the next spring. But then, instead of getting cut, he transforms from Pioneer Leaguer to good AAA pitcher/weak MLB pitcher... that is a helluva jump.

That ERA+ is higher than his a career average (105)
It's higher than 4 of his last 5 years
His peripherals are as good as ever, and he has the peripherals of a 115+ ERA+ pitcher...
but he just rarely gets there...

From 2004-08 he's given up 41 more runs than ERP says he "should" have
The pitcher with the biggest discrepancy is Lowe, other way- Oswalt (look at Lowe's and Oswalt's OPS+ allowed 2004-08- the same, yet Oswalt's ERA+ is 135 and Lowe's 114 over that period)

If* deviation from ERP (or RC or baseruns) for a pitcher is luck related, whoever gets Lowe might be pleasantly surprised- his batting line allowed is that of an elite pitcher...

*Mighty big IF there.

Well the Braves have been trying to get Vasquez since he was an Expo, so they are persistent if nothing else. Pretty cruel to trade L'ilbridge right before his Winter Formal though.

I remember those Vazquez from the Expos to the Braves rumors, but I can't remember who the Expos wanted. Anyone remember?

Horacio Ramirez, I believe.

I suppose it's possible that in a bigger park and a weaker league, he'll come closer to having his performance match his peripherals, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Horacio Ramirez, I believe.

Sounds right, Omar Minaya was in charge at the time