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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, December 24, 2006
Brewers - Signed Suppan
Milwaukee Brewers - Signed P Jeff Suppan to a 4-year contract.This comes in at 42 million and I think I'd rather have Suppan than most of the other pitcher that have signed in that neighborhood this offseason. I'd take Suppan over Padilla or Meche in a heartbeat and I'd certainly pay 3 million more a year for Suppan over the Marquis de Bad. Suppan fills a hole that the Doug Davis trade opened up and with a solid, though unsexy rotation (with the obvious exception being Ben Sheets, the only pitcher in history to K more than 1 an inning and walk less than 1 per game as he did in 2006). Suppan has never had a star season, but he's been an average or better starter each of the last 8 years.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Jeff Suppan
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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Projection 11 10 29 29 177 191 86 23 59 95 4.37
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Opt. (15%) 15 8 32 32 199 199 81 20 59 114 3.66
Pes. (15%) 7 11 25 25 143 167 85 25 53 74 5.35
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I think this is an underestimation of the league differential. I would be expect to see Suppan post an ERA higher than Meche's if he was with the Royals. Suppan's 32-35 seasons vs. Meche's 28-31 seasons? I'd be pretty happily take Meche at comparable dollars. Now with Meche, you're getting an additional year at $13M tapped onto the end, so the overall contracts may be similar in quality(although I still lean towards Meche).
Didn't Schilling do this in 2002?
I mean BB/9. Sheets is the only one with 50 innings to do it in history. To get another one, you have to go way down to some 19th century guy whose name escapes me that did it in 20 or so and then you drop down to people with just a handful of innings.
That had me confused as well. I read "game" as "start". Dan means "BB/9". You should be more explicit here, Dan. You keep testing Curt Schilling's patience...
And I think you're underestimating the differential between the two pitchers. Suppan has thrown 188 or more innings for 8 straight years; he's had an ERA+ of 105 or higher in 3 of the last 4 years. A quick Marcel puts him at a 110 ERA+, so even with a 10% differential between the leagues, that makes him average in the AL.
Meche meanwhile has touched the 188 region twice and has never had an above-average full season.
The only reason to like Meche over Suppan is age.
Anyway, this signing would be fine, if the Brewers weren't pushing another pitcher who is quite a bit better than replacement level out of the rotation (Villanueva). I'd rather have Padilla or Lilly, but this deal is better than the Eaton or Marquis signing, and much better than giving up a pile of young quality for one year of Jennings.
Yes, but if Steve Trachsel signs with an NL Central team, then Suppan will make up for his baserunning with his Ruthian displays of power.
That and stuff.
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