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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, June 28, 2009Cardinals - Acquired DeRosaSt. Louis Cardinals - Acquired UT Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians for P Chris Perez and a PTBNL.Soto injured? Ramirez injured and out? Harden actually being bad rather than injured? Ask a certain subset of Cubs fans and you won't hear any of these reasons given as to why the Cubs are 35-36. Instead, you'll hear stories about the loss of scrappy Mark DeRosa, who, along with Ryan Theriot, led the Cubs to the playoffs in 2008. That DeRosa goes to the Cardinals has to rub the salt in the wounds a little. While he didn't quite do that, DeRosa's bat and ability to fake 2B provides a great bit of depth for the Cardinals down the stretch. While the Cards aren't truly desperate at any of the positions DeRosa plays, the organization isn't really prepared to deal with injuries, either. DeRosa will play somewhere nearly every day. Perez is a useful reliever, something the Indians desperately need, but he's by no means irreplaceable, a league-average fastball/slider guy with occasional command issues. No idea who the PTBNL is at this point.
2009 ZIPS Projection - Mark DeRosa
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Year-to-Date 278 47 75 13 0 13 50 29 63 1 .270 .342 .457
Rest-of-Year 264 47 74 14 1 9 41 28 53 1 .278 .352 .440
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Total 542 94 149 27 1 22 91 57 116 2 .274 .347 .449
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
2009 ZIPS Projection - Chris Perez
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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Year-to-Date 1 1 29 0 23.7 17 11 3 15 30 4.18
Rest-of-Year 1 2 33 0 29.7 26 16 4 21 35 4.85
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Total 2 3 62 0 53.3 43 27 7 36 65 4.56
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
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If the PTBNL is any good, though, this trade sucks.
post 3 says Todd is in the mix, which is something that I think would suck, basically Todd is ready right now to take over the spot Perez was filling, and maybe do a better job currently.
Is DeRosa's absence THE reason the Cubs are struggling? No, there are others too. But at least 250 of the 450 PA that have so far gone to Miles/Blanco/Fontenot at a collective OPS+ of about 55 would have gone to DeRosa. Heck, throw some Bradley in there if you want. Isn't that something on the order of 2 wins right there?
I'm with HW. DeRosa, when he can be optimally used, is one of the more valuable players in the game. He is, according to ZiPS, an average or better player at 3 positions. The "average player" at DeRosa's best position (super-utility guy) is pretty much a replacement-level player -- something along the lines of a Miles, Bloomquist, Brendan Ryan type plus half a 4th OF. When you can replace that level of production with a solid 105-110 OPS+ and average or better defense, you've made huge gains. A player like that also allows you to platoon at a couple positions, increasing your production (and usually lowering your payroll). And with 12-man pitching staffs, almost every team needs a DeRosa type of player.
Now, on the Indians and (it appears) on the Cards, DeRosa will not be used in his optimal way but rather as starting 3B -- which means he's just a slightly above-average player. The Cubs wish they had a few more of those too.
As to the Cubs -- Ramirez's injury is the big blow. The other big issues are Bradley and Soriano and the bullpen. Harden doesn't concern me too much -- it's all the HR rate (and some walks). Even so, Cubs' starters have a 3.83 ERA with excellent peripherals, that's hardly an area of concern. And what Soto injury? He missed a few games in April with a shoulder issue (and the Cubs were blessed with one of the better stretches of Koyie Hill's career).
The PTBNL may bite them someday, we don't know. But this is a wildly awesome trade for this year's Cardinals.
He hasn't been playing 2B, though - poring through ZR data for the last 25 years, defensive play can drop like a rock when a player "misses" a lot of time at a harder position.
On the other hand, his career path gives me a tiny bit of hope for Bill Hall.
dero is not pujols, but the dude hits better than most MI regulars and he can play just about anywhere except pitcher and catcher
and in case anyone want proof that the astros are the stupidest team in baseball it is that we kept jason michaels/matt kata/darin erstad and didn't go and get derosa instead of any one of those less then replacement guys
Hey, I ragged on the Cubs for signing him to that "ridiculous" contract. Probably wasn't until about halfway through last season before I accepted he's better than I gave him credit for.
He hasn't been playing 2B, though - poring through ZR data for the last 25 years, defensive play can drop like a rock when a player "misses" a lot of time at a harder position.
Well now, you coulda said that to start. I certainly buy that though I'm not sure missing 30-40 games (how many he'd probably typically get at 2B by this point in the season) would have that dramatic effect. Do you see the same effect after an injury?
I'd also be interested in seeing which positions. For example, a move from SS to 3B, even if the guy could still handle SS at the time of the move, is probably followed by some bulking up. Give DeRosa a couple years at 3B almost exclusively and I'd easily believe he no longer had the range for 2B/RF.
Seems there'd be a lot ou'd have to control for in that data. I assume that in those few cases where someone moves to a harder position (say from 2B to SS), they wouldn't lose anything. The ones moving to easier positions would mostly have been in decline for a while and maybe a lot of the ones that weren't are examples of the expert eyes being better than the numbers. Then there are all the injuries.
Do you see that guys who move from LF/RF to CF lose anything when they go back to LF (I would guess not)?
Doubtful. The only folks even talking about DeRosa are here.
I have stated my piece on DeRosa. Now having written those kind words he will now suffer a 4-39 streak, commit 8 errors, and work mightily to make me look incredibly foolish...........................
I was in that same boat.
I think the BTF Cubs fan love for DeRosa isn't that we think he was the team MVP last year, just that we all saw the bench shaping up as F Troop reborn -- and also saw that DeRosa can play quite well at the 2 positions we'd be most likely to see injuries (RF/3B), and the other that was a question mark (2B). This year's edition of the Cubs was the perfect team for a player of DeRosa's skills...
...and like most people, when events have proven us right - we tend to make sure everyone knows we said so back when.
I was only looking at the moves to easier positions and back, unfortunately.
if he was replacing a replacement level player, but he isn't that is the reason why people are lukewarm to this we go from a young maybe promising player like Tyler Greene, Barden or even Thurston (basically 80ops+ type of hitters, with Greene and Barden as plus defenders) to DeRosa(105 ops+). When it's broken down I think that DeRosa probably adds a little more than one win over the players he replaces for the remainder of the season, I like the addition because an improvement is always welcome, but at the same time I feel it's not enough for the potential cost.
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