#197 is tasteless and out of line

A neighbor of mine was one of the dead

Tasteless and out of line has never stopped folks from posting before.

That said, I'm really sorry and apologize for the offense. It must have been truly awful.

That's an interesting point, Mike, but here's my problem -- why deal Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner in an 8-player deal? I see no real reason for them to get Clayton, Harris, et al. other than the fact that they are dealing Lopez and Wagner.

The players going from Cincinnati seem to give us a clue as to the mindset. I think Bowden signed Wagner as an early (first-round?) pick, so Bowden has a point to prove. Cincinnati has been trying to move Kearns for a long time now. They obviously have been disappointed by the offers. Why would they move López? It must come down to defense. So I think in his case it is the same point that Lance made about visible problems in 189. It's easy to see that López's defense is poor, even though Dial's numbers suggest that it is not all that much worse than Clayton's or some of the other Reds' who play easier positions.

Clayton's deficiencies are probably down to age and a lack of range, which is harder to spot watching the game. But from what I've seen of López, he misses balls that my grandmother would stop. If a couple of these happen at the wrong point in games in a week when the bullpen has blown a lead or two, you could be tempted just to do anything to get him off the roster and think whatever you get back is a bonus. I'm sure they're thinking that Clayton will be fine till the end of the season if they need him to start as he won't cost them runs like López does. He may not add as many, but they probably feel they have enough with the offense that's already there.

This trade takes three problems off of the GM's desk - Lopez's D, the inability to move Kearns and lack of bullpen depth. I just wonder whether they knew Majewski was day-to-day.

For Krivsky to sit back and do nothing to address an obvious sinkhole would have been horrible, both from a PR standpoint and from the team's standpoint, as well - the players have to be thinking postseason opp.

What's funny about this is I remember Reds fans being up in arms over the Boone and Guillen trades at the deadline back in 2003. The Reds weren't trying to compete in their new stadium, an obvious PR disaster. So now they trade two better players for not much in return... to manage PR and the like.

If you are a Reds player you do have to wonder if you can believe management. Take Felipe Lopez for example.

Lopez had a fine 2005 hitting for some real power and being passable at shortstop. He clearly was helped by his home park but 23 homers and 34 doubles are nothing to sneeze at. So Felipe shows up early this year and gets pulled aside about how the Reds want to run more. So Felipe is asked to hit first or second (depending on the day), take a few pitches if batting second, and be ready to run. Oh, and by the way play shortstop every day in a place where it gets really hot and humid come late May. That's all.

And Felipe complies. After stumbling out of the gate his average picks up and he's definitely trying to take pitches leading to an increased walk rate. Meanwhile, he sets a career high in stolen bases through early July. Defense wasn't where folks wanted it to be but the guy's 26 so there is hope.

Meanwhile, after several freak injuries Austin Kearns gets pulled aside by management in late 2004 and is told, "Hey, put on some weight. Your frame needs a bit to hold up against those collisions with the wall, etc. We think it will help." So Kearns does what's asked only he shows up and everyone throws up their hands in Spring Training 2005 and goes, "My God! Austin, you are fat! What the heck happened?" Kearns fumbles out of the gate, gets demoted, scorches Triple A, and gets back on the team for the second half of 2005. Shows up in 2006 still trying to shed some of the excess but is very good in right field and the bat is rounding into form.

And in return for their willingness to do what's asked, to be a GOOD EMPLOYEE, they get their butts traded.

Look, I know it's a business. But I think folks here can understand that if you are Adam Dunn you are thinking "WTF??". And frankly, part of me wonders the same thing.

I'm glad both guys are out of the NL Central. But man, this is some pretty shoddy stuff.......

Harvey, I think you've just described a team without a plan. They are just aimlessly doing things, and not really caring.

Dunn has never sounded that attached to Cincinatti. When he's free, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

#197 is tasteless and out of line

While I understand the offense, dJf did post a very respectful and informative link, which for me makes it worthwhile.

"
Dunn has never sounded that attached to Cincinatti. When he's free, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go."

I dont know what this says about Cincy but Alan Schwartzs BA article had quotes from Dunn about how displeased he was with himself. He said if he was 30 and playgin like this he might give up and "stop wasting everyones time"

As a Cardinal fan who has been making fun of the new Cincy ownership group all season long, I find this trade hilarious. I mean, can you imagine a pitching starved team like the Reds, who released a ready major league pitcher just because he was fat(who, yes I know wouldn't have made the team out of spring training, but do you really think josh hancock would still be in the minors or that esteban yan would have come to the team if they had him) I mean the Reds are now adding something like their fourth or fifth reliever to the season, all of which are inferior to the fat guy they let go just to prove a point (I think the point was that the new ownership group is incompetent or watched one too many military training video)

That's an interesting point, Mike, but here's my problem -- why deal Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner in an 8-player deal? I see no real reason for them to get Clayton, Harris, et al. other than the fact that they are dealing Lopez and Wagner.

Why couldn't they have done something like Kearns for Bray/Majewski? That would seem a lot more fair to me and still address the Reds needs.

My guess is that neither Krivsky nor Bowden was willing to do Kearns for Bray/Majewski - Krivsky because he felt that wouldn't have been enough value, Bowden because he wanted an arm in return for giving up two.

Lopez-for-Clayton is an offense-for-defense swap for the Reds. The acquisition of Castro was a clear sign that the Reds were NOT happy with Lopez's glove, so that part of the deal isn't exactly a surprise.

Harris is to Encarnacion what Castro was to Lopez - a warning shot across the bow.

-- MWE

MM:

Well, that's fine to say but how about the young man lose about 30 pounds as a start in the right direction? And maybe break a sweat in left field every so often?

Dunn takes a lot of cr*p from the fans and The Mouth That Roars (Mary B) about his strikeouts, his defense, and his seemingly lax approach to the game. And as a dedicated NL Central observer I will state that ALL THREE have some merit. Dunn DOES strike out too much for a player of his talents. He does play wretched defense. And he most certainly lollygags on a far too visible basis.

Adam appears (and it's born out by the numerical evaluations) as a guy who wants to hit home runs or walk to first base. To quote Sean Connery from "The Untouchables", "enough of this running sh*t" seems to be Adam's approach to the game.

He has value. But his issues certainly make that value LESS then what would think. And barring someone getting him to hustle a bit more as well as refine his game, I could see him leaving Cincy via trade or when his contract is up and the team not making a serious offer.

Right now Adam Dunn Mr. Three True Outcomes with no value outside of the batters box. So from that perspective he provides this community with a unique chance to understand whether that type of player can really push a team toward a championship. Right now, I have my doubts.........

"
Well, that's fine to say but how about the young man lose about 30 pounds as a start in the right direction? And maybe break a sweat in left field every so often?"

Well i should point out that the quotes i saw were all focused on Dunn saying his OFFENSE was lacking and he was working hard on it. I too immiediately thought..how about that glove?

note-i didnt read the whole article..just the teaser quotes from him

Lopez-for-Clayton is an offense-for-defense swap for the Reds.

Too bad Clayton doesn't have much defensive value. He was a pretty immobile shortstop when he was on the White Sox a few years ago, and it looks like his skills have only deteriorated since then.

He doesn't make many errors, though, so that's something, I suppose.

But his issues certainly make that value LESS then what would think. And barring someone getting him to hustle a bit more as well as refine his game, I could see him leaving Cincy via trade or when his contract is up and the team not making a serious offer.

If it is as you say, and I have every reason to believe you, then he will have trouble getting what he should be worth on the open market. Other GMs will see lollygagging and not want it on their team. For that matter, I have to wonder what his teammates think of his play if he's not putting forth the effort. He can't be so dumb as to not know these things (at the very least, his agent will make him aware), so he may really be a "f*ck it, surf's up, I quit" kind of guy.

While I understand the offense, dJf did post a very respectful and informative link, which for me makes it worthwhile.

Well, if I'm gonna offend, the least I can do is educate as well. :-)

If it is as you say, and I have every reason to believe you, then he will have trouble getting what he should be worth on the open market.

Is he currently signed to an expensive, long-term contract? Then I don't see that happening. Some team will recognize that what he does do is valuable, rather than complain about what he doesn't do.

Then I don't see that happening.

This should be, "if not, he'll get what he's worth". I need more coffee.

Harvey,

I wonder how much of what you describe in #210 - Dunn's seeming indifference - is because of what you describe in #204 - he plays for a team run by idiots. I'm a Cubs fan and the trade I'd like to see them try is Prior for Dunn. A classic challenge trade - we'll give you our injury-plagued HOF-talent pitcher in exchange for your lollygagging HOF-talent hitter. Unfortunately, Dunn would just be moving from one team run by idiots to a different team run by different idiots.

In this thread, I've read that Dunn looks up to Griffey in almost son to father sort of way and that he lollygags on defense.

Is there reconciling these two statements?

re#217

Dunn's been that way since the low minors, I don't think it's a response to management.

He's a football player, only took up baseball when he didn't get recruited by a big time NCAA football team. (Have heard him state such in radio interview). He has a lot of talent, and for the record I'd like to see the Reds keep him, but he's basically Dave Kingman with a friendlier disposition.

... but he's basically Dave Kingman with a friendlier disposition

Well, that's more than a little harsh: Dunn's BB/ABs are vastly higher than Kong's, and while Dunn isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, he isn't the absolute disaster afield that Kingman was.

Dunn isn't a star (the strikeouts and subsequent low BA really do eat into his value, and he isn't going to get that value back with the gloves or on the bases) but he's seriously better than Kingman.

Happy Base Ball

Hit submit too quickly ...

There *are*, of course, some similarities b/t Dunn and Kingman: Both are (very) high-strikeout hitters who hit lots of home runs and won't impress anyone, especially old-school Baseball Men types, with their fielding. Both are/were excellent athletes. Kingman's career (Steve Treder has pointed this out a few times) never lived up to its early promise, and it's looking like the same can be said for Dunn.

Happy Base Ball

I don't understand this objection thinking folks seem to have to Adam Dunn. He's on pace for his third straight season of >40 HR, >100 R, >100 RBI, he's currently 23rd in the majors in Runs Created, 26th in OPS, 13th in runs scored, 22nd in RBI, and 4th in home runs. And this is a down season for Dunn. How is that not a star? Shouldn't Adam Dunn be the sabermetric poster boy?

Lance:

What's really disturbing to Reds fans, heck to ANY baseball fan, is that two years ago Dunn was mediocre as an outfielder. Didn't get a good jump but moved pretty well once he got going, was willing to challenge a wall, and had a pretty good arm.

Since then he has collapsed and IS a disaster. For a player of his skill set to play to this level is embarrassing. Simultaneously, he has allowed his conditioning to become nonexistent. I have seen him towel himself off after a STRIKEOUT! He's darn close to getting what my grandsons call "man breasts".

I understand that I am repeatedly hammering on the lad but seeing this guy, with SOOOO MUCH ability, just fritter it away is INFURIATING. He's on the opposing team and watching him makes my blood boil. That he is wasting his talents. That he is insulting his teammates. He's insulting the GAME.

I don't think a player has to be rah-rah, dive into first base, and otherwise make a big display to show that he cares. But to let yourself approach Bob Horner squishiness while also picking dandelions in the field of play is just plain WRONG. WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!!!!!

D*mn that kid...........

Adam Dunn has put up OPS+'s of:

141
118
112
152
135

Its tough to call this a down year for him. I'd guess this is right around his true talent level.

Mostly, though, he's a DH or a first baseman, not a left-fielder. Especially not a left-fielder when not-a-center-fielder-Griffey is in CF next to him.

I understand that I am repeatedly hammering on the lad but seeing this guy, with SOOOO MUCH ability, just fritter it away is INFURIATING. He's on the opposing team and watching him makes my blood boil. That he is wasting his talents. That he is insulting his teammates. He's insulting the GAME.

Despite my praise of Adam Dunn above, I understand this. Going back to my first post on the subject, though, I do wonder if a change of scenery might not do him a world of good. As you say, Harv, two years ago he was "mediocre as an outfielder." Combine that with his offense and you've got a fine, fine player. Does he not care or is the Reds' situation just wearing him down (and even if it's the latter he deserves the criticism, don't get me wrong)? I find Adam Dunn and baseball fans' reaction to him strangely intriguing. I don't really know why.

Its tough to call this a down year for him. I'd guess this is right around his true talent level.

That's fine. I'm sure you follow him more closely than I do. He's still probably one of the 20-30 best hitters in the major leagues right now.

Harvey, I don't follow the NL Central as closely as you, but we do get the Astros games on the Fox RSN down here, so I do get to see a share of Central games. I don't recall anyone until now saying that Dunn was a *bad* outfielder, save a few tortured souls for whom the baseline for adequate outfield play is Willie Mays.

I'll defer to your reading of Dunn's current fielding skill. His walks alone, though, still make him a better player than the execrable Kingman, whom I wouldn't allow on my roster unless, to steal a line from Dave Barry, that was among the ransom demands from the people who kidnapped my son.

Back to the trade, I've read Mike's and Tim Marchman's comments and I still don't see any analysis of this deal that leads to a conclusion other than that Krivsky badly overpaid.

Mike says that, because of their position in the '06 race coupled with their not-altogether-promising immediate future, it does make since to maximize their chances now. I agree, especially since the NL pennant is there for the taking. Because of that, and because relief pitching is their biggest (not just most visible) weakness, it makes sense that they should be willing to spend more on bullpen help than another team might. There's a difference, though, in being right in paying more (as the Reds were) and paying too much (as the Reds did). This is an overpayment. Maybe not spending-Mercedes-money-on-a-1972-Ford-Pinto level of overpaying, and this isn't as bad as the Trade No Met Fan Dare Mention, but Krivsky paid too much, period.

Whatever their flaws, Lopez + Kearns + Wagner are more valuable than Bray + Majewski + Clayton.

Happy Base Ball

Reds clear roster space by optioning Bergolla back to Louisville (no surprise there), DL'g Belisle, and designating Yan for assignment.

-- MWE

I still don't get it. 228 posts haven't helped. Or the other thread. This appears to be so obviously an unfair trade that the Reds couldn't have missed it. Was it all a sneaky trick to have Brandon Watson released so they could pick him up off waivers? Do they think some of the guys they got have potential?

According to one website, scouts have given Brendan Harris "the ultimate compliment" of calling him a "'baseball player.'" Seriously, that's what it said. Harris did have a 1178 OPS in the majors in 2005!*

Thompson is pitching for the Vermont Lake Monsters, so he may be a few years away. Only 20 years old, but he's already had shoulder trouble. He was a first round pick in 2004 I believe, but he's got a long way to go.

It doesn't seem like the Reds could think either one of Harris or Thompson had much value? But then why did they trade for these guys? Just throw ins to make the trade 'even'?

* In 9 at bats. Maybe the Reds didn't realize the small sample size.

My post wasn't focused right; it should have been more specific. That said:


(2) is an off-season activity; once the bell rings, relief help isn't just available anywhere, you have to pay for it dearly. And (3)... well, (3) is what bad teams often do to sort out a bullpen, and sometimes it works and more often it doesn't. It's hard to do in a pennant race, because all the while that you're running retreads and AAA lifers and waiver wire pickups out there, you're giving up runs and losing ballgames, waiting for Mr. Right to pop up.

Well, maybe, but considering who they got, I think they paid far too dearly. Lopez or Valentin for a guy who might help would have been a far better option. I think your theory is OK, but it is not at all certain that Bill Bray and Gary Majewski are going to help all that much, if at all.

So I think that Krivsky absolutely had to focus on the short-term

Same thing--the theory is OK, but Krivsky's execution is weak at best. Bray has limited MLB experience and not even that much professional experience. Do you really see it as likely that he, and Majewski, whose stats have likely been protected by RFK and was borderline until then, will help the Reds beat the Cardinals in 2006? I don't.

The Reds have a chance to steal a division title this year, and their chances of grabbing another one in the near term are not nearly as good as their shot at this one.

This is highly debatable. I respect that your knowledge base is greater than mine, but there are too many variables to make this type of statement with much confidence. How many people thought the Reds would be in the race this year? To me, Kearns was exactly the type of guy you wanted to keep to help you try to hang in for those next three-four years. particularly with Griffey in CF.

but the Reds would have been far worse off, IMO, had he done nothing.

I don't agree with that, and besides, that is not really an argument anyway. Basically, I think Krivksy overreacted to taking crap about the bullpen and is cocky since the Arroyo trade has worked so well. And I don't see the Reds as being much, if any, more likely to win the NL Central than I did two days ago.

Let me get this straight. The Reds started the off-season with Casey, Griffey, Kearns, Dunn, and Pena for 4 slots, with Freel and Denorfia (spelling) also around for those slots, too.

Three of those guys are now gone (with Hatteberg added), but the best pitcher they got back is wrong for their park and enjoying a bit of a fluke year?

Jeez.

is an off-season activity; once the bell rings, relief help isn't just available anywhere, you have to pay for it dearly.

Yes, the loss of Travis Chick to get Eddie Guardado may kill the Reds in 2009. And of course, they did have to do it in January.

It seems to me, upon reflection, that every year teams pick up mid-range relief help in exchange for second and third-tier prospects. I don't recall many deals involving guys like Austin Kearns.

I'm a Cubs fan and the trade I'd like to see them try is Prior for Dunn. A classic challenge trade - we'll give you our injury-plagued HOF-talent pitcher in exchange for your lollygagging HOF-talent hitter.

If Prior gets traded to Cincinnati, he ought to quit baseball altogether. Or he could become the new Bizarro Arroyo.

Here's one bright side: maybe now we'll get to see if Austin Kearns is as good as we think he is. He's all set up to be Paul O'Neill 2: Electric Bugaloo.

found this tape in the dc trash dump

hard to make out but this is the transcript best i can tell:

"narl ah warns yer. ahma GENURS cuz AH warnts PICTAH. afma lars PICTAH eeevarbardah caws mah GENURS"

"dern Krissky, they were right about you"

"PICTAH"

"Yep, your gonna have my ars."

"PICTAH"

"Just please promise me one thing.

"PICTAH"

"PlEASE have mercy."

"PICTAH"

"Let us keep Royce"

I know it's got little or nothing to do with the trade itself, but it is quite comical that Cincinatti have won every game since the trade, albeit against a slumping Rockies with their own bullpen implosion issues. Small sample size, of course....

my love for the game and the Mets didn't recover for years. Literally, years.

Let me guess.... not until the next good Mets team? Sorry, I couldn't resist.

The Reds are 10-4 since tanking their season.

Let me guess.... not until the next good Mets team? Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Oh, wise guy, eh? But, as I said in # 96:

But it then also took the emergence of some young players with real talent and enthusiasm -- Mookie and Hubie were the real first ones. When they became the face of the "new" Mets in 1981, my interest was rekindled. Seaver coming home in 1983 really cinched it, though. No doubt.

If you look at the Mets' records starting in 1981, you will find:

1981: 41-62
1982: 65-97
1983: 68-94

So there!

The Reds are 10-4 since tanking their season.

Gary Majewski has a 14.54 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in that span, Bill Bray 2.70 and 1.35. Clayton a 636 OPS.

Felipe Lopez 661 OPS, Kearns a 796 OPS.