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I think between that, and the fact that they have a club option on Harden, to keep him for 7 million, or let him go if he's injured, means that they raped the A's here.
The A's got some useful parts to add depth to their roster.
(That said, I have concerns about him (his problems this season aside) - his bat is supposed to be his best tool and even there there were concerns as to how he'd hold up at higher levels where they've got better breaking stuff.)
While this certainly looks like a pretty bad deal for Oakland - I don't know Harden's true health status + I think it's likely that the A's are selling high/buying low on most of these players ...
So he doesn't suck that much.
I wish I could take credit for it, but Greg Pope in the long thread summed it up best.
I'd assume that's based on his having missed so much time in recent years. Or are you commenting on the K rates? That does sound a little high, doesn't it? That's Marmol-esque.
What ticked me off was reading Neyer's column, where he goes sycophantic at Billy Beane, trying to put lipstick on a pig.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob&univLogin02=stateChanged
Which means it's 50/50 that they actually did.
BTW - My understanding is that Donaldson's D leaves much to be desired. I think the questions weren't so much about his hitting as about whether he could stay behind the plate. The Midwest league is generally where Cub catching prospects go to over-inflate their prospectdom -- not where it generally gets pinched off. Still.... ya never know with catchers.
42/33 and 108/83 K/BB for Gallagher?
120k/80ip for Harden in 2009- with a 2.11 ERA????
Murton is a career .294/.362/.448 hitter
and he'll be 27 next year.
Well it certainly looks like it falls on the Hudson side of the Hudson/Mulder Beane trading spectrum...
... but I also assume that Harden will never qualify for an ERA title ever...
As for Murton, I'm sure that's correct - he's moving to a much harder park in a harder league and has been pretty bad this year.
Well, now that Harden is playing for the Cubs, him getting injured is a near certainty. Something must happen to keep the 99-year streak alive.
Pretty much. The regular ZiPS projection is a good bit more rigorous than the in-seasonal one. You'll also see some weird things in partial seasons sometimes due to rounding.
Even this season, with him being "healthy" and all that, there have been concerns and scares: the recently reported "dead arm", the strained subscapularis not too long ago.
His problem was control.
In interviews Beane specifically stated that Hendry wouldn't do the deal until the A's included Gaudin.
It's almost as if BB was desperate to get Rich off the roster and Jim was the only one answering Beane's phone calls.......
Well, my in-season spreadsheet is public, so anyone who has a bright idea how to harvest the stats into the spreadsheet and automatically run a macro generating the rest-of-season projection for each player, they're welcome to go ahead!
:-)
14 starts sounded high if anything, but I was talking about the K rate. Dan seems to have fixed it now though.
i don't THINK so
- and by the way, has anyone figured out how this trade could possibly be good for the A's?
i mean, unless gallagher suddenly turns into randy johnson 2001?
He throws mid-90s consistently, his secondary pitches need work, he has trouble with location, and my guess is that he ends up in the pen.
-- MWE
-- MWE
A; Harden continues to average 50 ip per year
B: Gaudin never becomes more than a 95-100 ERA+ guy (yes I copied Vaux)
C: Gallagher develops into a 105-115 ERA+ guy (imho he already is at least a 95-100 guy, and further development is possible- he might even become Danny Haren- not likely but possible)
D: Murton becomes a reasonably productive regular OF, and once newly re-minted as an everyday OF gets pawned off on a contender desperate for corner OF help
E: Patterson is an adequate 2B allowing the A's to get value for Ellis from a cnmtender desperate for middle IF help...
F: Donaldson starts hitting again
Oof.
I think once the A's got good value for Haren Beane sort of wrote off 2008. He was happy when things were going well despite the offseason trades, but with injuries occurring it was time to dump Harden when his value was higher than it had been for years.
And yes, Street is available - if the A's think they can get good enough value. There are two years left until free agency, so there is no rush - but Beane has never shown a fear of trading closers. He knows that nearly all of them are fairly easy to replace.
Gallagher has a 4.45 ERA, which is a 100 ERA+ for Chicago. A 100 ERA+ for Oakland this year would be a 3.82 ERA.
Let's say Harden would have put up a 2.50 ERA in 90 innings for the rest of this season--which is an optimistic figure. The difference between a 2.50 ERA and a 3.82 ERA over 90 innings is 13 runs. If the A's replace Brown with Murton and Davis with Patterson, I think they'd make up most of those 13 runs.
There's a drop-off in the bullpen from Gaudin to Braden, but the drop-off would likely have very little effect on win-loss records given the low leverage situations Gaudin was pitching in. There's also the difference in league quality, so I guess Gallagher's ERA+ would be a bit lower in the AL.
I'm perfectly fine with them trading Street. The sooner the better.
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