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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Cubs - Signed Lieber
Chicago Cubs - Signed P Jon Lieber to a 1-year, $3.5 million contract.
Not a bad risk really. Lieber's health might mean that if the Cubs want Lieber to win 20 games for them again, they should have signed him to a 3-year contract, but since his sophomore swingman season for the Bucs, Lieber's yet to put up a season in which he's clearly below average for a starter, the lowest ERA+ being a 95 in '06 (starting pitchers usually combine for an ERA+ around 96). This solidifies a Zambrano/Lilly/Marquis/Hill/Lieber rotation as long as everyone's healthy, which has the side effect of pushing Gallagher and Marshall out of town, probably for Brian Roberts, fairly quickly. This also might mean the end of the Dempster-to-start experiment, an idea so puzzling that you would think Jim Hendry went for it because Frodo Baggins told him to do it in a dream or another owner he dislikes in his fantasy league wants Dempster to get some saves next season.
Lieber should give the Cubs what they want from him. A 5th starter who's more dependable than most 5th starters at winning games but an injury risk and who can throw some mopup innings in the playoffs if Bad Zambrano shows up.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Lieber
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 9 12 27 27 166 181 87 26 35 106 4.72 98
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Opt. (15%) 13 10 32 32 197 193 82 23 32 128 4.11 112
Pes. (15%) 5 9 18 18 111 129 66 19 26 67 5.37 89
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Top Comps: Woody Williams, Fat Freddy Fitzsimmons
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 16, 2008 at 07:02 PM | 18 comment(s)
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/too lazy to check retrosheet
//in class
Popfly
Popfly
Groundout
Strikeout in 4 pitches.
Heading into that game Bonds was batting .404 had 8 homers, with a .622 OBP and a 1.000 SLG in 17 games.
1. The Cubs have given up on the idea of Dempster as a 5th starter (until someone gets hurt at least) and will return him to the pen ...where they have absolutely no use for him. Alternatively, they found someone who wants to trade for him.
2. The Cubs have found someone who wants to trade for Marquis. Surely the Pirates need a #2 behind Morris. :-) Alternatively, the Cubs have given up on Marquis as a 5th starter.
3. The Cubs are working on an even "bigger" trade involving one of their top 3, probably Hill. I can't imagine who for -- obviously I'm thinking for a hitter.
4. Somebody's hurt.
5. The Cubs have sensibly decided to add starting pitching depth given a pending trade of Marshall and Gallagher ... and somehow have gotten 6 veteran starters (or "starter" in Dempster's case) to agree to share 5 spots.
Since # 5 requires both the Cubs and veteran players to be acting sensibly, we can rule that one out. I can't possibly think who we could get in #3 (unless the Cubs are dumb enough to move Hill in the Roberts trade) and surely even Hendry isn't dumb enough to enter the season with Marquis, Lieber and Dempster all in the rotation (on purpose). Note even somehow managing to pick up both Roberts and Bedard (by including Hill ... and other stuff ... instead of Marshall) still leaves the Cubs with "too many" veteran starting pitchers.
#1 seems the most likely though I'd just as soon they traded Dempster for a bag of balls as kept him. #4 seems like the second most likely scenario.
ESPN 1000 is reporting that the trade for Roberts has gone through.
Man, don't even joke about that stuff...
110, 110, 109, 109, 106, 105, 104, 103, 98 (big leap there), 96, 95
That's almost freaky.
Granted, I'm not entirely clear on Lieber's health at the moment ... and am too tired to read the article.
Did you know Lieber was originally drafted by the Cubs, but didn't sign?
Maybe ZiPS needs to project "veteran savy"
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