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Monday, August 11, 2008

Diamondbacks - Acquired Dunn

Arizona Diamondbacks - Acquired OF Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds for P Dallas Buck and two players to be named.

It's hard to give a final grade to this trade until we know who the players named after the season will be.

However, I'll give this trade a thumbs-up for Arizona for the time being in the expectation that the players to be named don't include names like Jarrod Parker and someone like Brooks Brown would be about as high quality as they would go here.

Dunn isn't quite the hitter Manny Ramirez is, but the Diamondbacks are apparently giving up a good deal less (so little, in fact, you have to wonder about the PTBNL or Walt Jocketty would just take the draft picks) and aren't shackled with big-ticket failures like Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones that they would feel obligated to play in order not to make them cry. Well, there's Eric Byrnes, but he's happily unavailable. We might see Mark Reynolds at 2nd now, which won't improve the defense, but there aren't a lot of other options - no way to get Brian Roberts at this point.

While at first glance I think this is a wretched trade for the Reds, I'm weaseling my way more than usual about the PTBNL because, even though I'm not a fan of Walt Jocketty in general, I can't imagine that he would take a package in which the best player is Dallas Buck over high draft picks. So I have to play nice and not insult anyone. Yet.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Adam Dunn
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Period         AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date  373  59   87  14  0  32  74  80 120   1  .233  .373  .528
Rest-of-Yr?   134  23   32   6  0  10  27  27  43   1  .239  .370  .507
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total         507  81  119  20  0  42 101 107 163   2  .235  .372  .523
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?         510  91  128  26  1  41 112  98 151   4  .251  .376  .547
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps:  Mike Epstein, Darrell Evans

Dan Szymborski Posted: August 11, 2008 at 07:41 PM | 34 comment(s)
Related News: Arizona, Cincinnati

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1. Walt Davis Posted: August 11, 2008 at 08:51 PM (#2899114)

I was gonna be stunned he made it as far as Arizona before he was claimed ... but I guess that is ordered by record not standing and so Arizona would be the first contending team with a shot to claim him other than the Dodgers -- and even I might wake up screaming at the thought of a Dunn-Manny-Kemp OF.

It would appear to be an easy win for AZ here -- i.e. they'll get what they want out of it -- and if Dan isn't ready to ridicule Jocketty yet, who am I to throw the first stone?

So Dunn to LF, Jackson back to 1B? Or Jackson in LF, Dunn to 1B? Or is one of Young/Upton gonna take a seat? Anyway, some nice mix and match possibilities there (if Dunn can handle 1B).

Any chance AZ will try to re-sign him? I'd guess no given the Byrnes fandango.

2. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:02 PM (#2899130)

Maybe they will resign Dunn and trade Upton to the White Sox for a dude with no position.

3. Dan Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:05 PM (#2899134)

Dunn has to be better than Jackson at first base.

And Jackson is definitely better than Dunn in LF.

4. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:50 PM (#2899206)

Depending on how Upton hits when he returns, Tracy may find himself on the bench fairly regularly, with Dunn sliding over to 1b and Upton in RF. In fact, this would certainly be the alignment against LHP. Bob Melvin stated today that Jackson would remain in LF for the rest of the season, and that the plan for now is to leave Reynolds at 3B. Won't be shocked though if Reynolds starts taking grounders at 2b soon. Incidentally, Josh Byrnes called the possibility of Dunn leaving as a free agent "the worst case scenario", leading me to believe the Dbacks might seriously try to sign Dunn to a long term deal.

5. ColonelTom Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:53 PM (#2899210)

Dunn's numbers at 1B are ugly, and he hasn't played a game there since 2006. If this were spring training, maybe, but he's going to play LF for the D'Backs now.

The idea I floated elsewhere of moving Mark Reynolds to 2B makes more sense now - Chad Tracy can move to 3B, Conor Jackson to 1B, Reynolds to 2B (at least when Brandon Webb and his sinker aren't in the lineup). It's an ugly right side of the infield defensively, but that lineup will hit.

6. ColonelTom Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2899213)

Was Melvin's statement before or after the deal?

7. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:58 PM (#2899222)

After the deal, during the press conference this afternoon. Melvin said that Upton would be getting significant playing time in RF once he's shown he's fully healthy; he just started his rehab. He also said Jackson would remain in LF the rest of the way. Finally, his comment on Reynolds was that Mark would remain at 3B "for now". Again, he'll likely take grounders at 2B

8. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 11, 2008 at 09:59 PM (#2899224)

It's an ugly ~~right side of the~~ infield defensively

Fixed

9. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:00 PM (#2899225)

Dunn on his position in AZ

"I'll do whatever," Dunn said. "If they want me to catch, I'll catch."

Nah, just keep hitting long balls

10. Dan Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:01 PM (#2899226)

Who knows, maybe Reynolds will turn out to be decent at 2B. I don't think anyone really expected Jackson to take to LF so well after he sucked at first base, but that went well.

11. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:04 PM (#2899234)

Dan, check out post #27 by shoewizard in this thread...

12. Dan Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:09 PM (#2899242)

Yeah levski, shoewizard's assessment makes sense to me. And it's not as if the team has been getting good defense at second this year anyway. Hudson's range has been terrible with all the leg injuries. He still comes up with a good play from time to time, especially in the hole, but his range up the middle has been way off.

13. ColonelTom Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:12 PM (#2899248)

Wow, maybe they will play Dunn at 1B then. That's going to be a train wreck of epic proportions.

14. Dan Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:13 PM (#2899250)

Jackson at first base is a train wreck anyway. How would putting him at first and ruining the LF defense too make any sense?

15. frannyzoo Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:15 PM (#2899253)

I read the Shoewizard analysis, I understand the quickness at 3B problem, but I'm still not seeing Mark Reynolds at 2B. I predict he won't make it past "taking a few grounders at 2B", but if he make starts at 2B I will be watching/cringing ready to be proven wrong. As of now, I just cringe thinking about it.

16. ColonelTom Posted: August 11, 2008 at 10:22 PM (#2899260)

Dan, you have a point. They're both awful there, though at least Jackson's played there recently. On the other hand, Dunn's taller, which probably accounts for the difference in range factor.

17. shoewizard Posted: August 12, 2008 at 01:06 AM (#2899336)

As of right now, Dunn is playing RF

Maybe they just platoon him with Upton when the kid comes back, and use Romero as the late inning defensive replacement. They could also consider letting Chris Young take a seat vs. righties and having either Romero or Upton take some games in CF, which would allow them to just leave Dunn in RF.

This would all be so much easier if the D Backs were an AL Team. Then again, if they were an AL team, they'd be Kansas City.

Frannyzoo.......I hear you about Reynolds. I'm not really proposing it, and I don't have a high confidence level he would succeed at 2b. I was just trying to take my observations and come up with one plausible scenario it might work. I admit it's a bit of a stretch. But then again, Reynolds entire career to date has been a bit of a stretch.

18. shoewizard Posted: August 12, 2008 at 01:07 AM (#2899337)

That last sentence doesn't read right. What I meant is that he's exceeded the expectations of many.

19. Al Kaline Trio Posted: August 12, 2008 at 02:02 AM (#2899352)

Many takes way more walks and hits for more average, I think Reynolds has more power and more defensive value. Those dreads need to go...

20. The Marksist Posted: August 12, 2008 at 05:00 PM (#2899902)

Those dreads need to go...

Get those scissors away from me, Delilah!

21. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 12, 2008 at 08:25 PM (#2900188)

Posters on the Dbacks message board are reporting that John Gambadoro said on KTAR radio in PHX that Micah Owings is one of the PTBNL in the trade. My guess is the other PTBNL would be a position player, arguably Castillo or Whitesell (I'm leaning toward Castillo). However, Micah has been struggling with shoulder soreness down in AAA and may have to be shut down. Am not sure how serious his shoulder problem is, and if it would impact the trade (or his inclusion as a PTBNL) in any way. We'll see. If true that Micah is a PTBNL, then we won't see him in AZ in September.

22. frannyzoo Posted: August 12, 2008 at 08:34 PM (#2900221)

Man, that would be a big fall for Owings, from #2 heir-apparent in the pre-Haren days to PTBNL. Bummer. I don't know what's already been tried, but any chance of Owings being a 1B down the road?

23. shoewizard Posted: August 12, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#2900350)

It's been confirmed by Nick Piecoro.

24. Johnny Tuttle Posted: August 13, 2008 at 10:24 AM (#2901005)

Those pitcher to hitter switches are brutal if you're dumping the guy at the best hitting position.

25. Ziggy Posted: August 13, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2901777)

Well, his competition won't be fierce. There's this guy: <a href = http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=470> who's a bit over league average as a 27 y.o. in AAA. </a> <a href = http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=3962>
Dickerson</a>, is basically the same player with more HR and fewer 2Bs. (Though a year younger)
<a href = http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31767> Dan Dorn </a> will, I think, be good, but he hasn't even made it to AAA yet.
And <a href = http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=6497> Henry</a> has promise, but is also young:
I don't really think Owings is going to move Votto off 1B. If he's a hitter its in a corner OF spot, and he doesn't really look all that bad compared to next year's potential starters. (Assuming no FA acquisitions.)
What would be really nice is if he's an outfielder/situational pitcher. If you can stick your starter in LF for one batter and let Owings get the occasional platoon advantage (and then swap them back) that would be sweet.

26. Ziggy Posted: August 13, 2008 at 04:55 PM (#2901778)

Well, the links worked in the preview...

27. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 14, 2008 at 11:43 PM (#2904084)

Wilkin Castillo the other PTBNL in Dunn trade

Minor league catcher/infielder Wilkin Castillo was announced Thursday as the other player to be named in the deal that brought Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks from Cincinnati.

Right-handers Micah Owings and Dallas Buck are the other two players in the deal. Owings has yet to officially be traded, presumably because he has not cleared waivers.

Castillo was hitting .254 with a .305 on-base percentage and a .358 slugging percentage for Triple-A Tucson. Castillo's calling card is his versatility. In his six-year minor-league career, he has played every position except first base and pitcher.

So the deal will end up being Dunn plus $2m for Micah Owings, Dallas Buck and Wilkin Castillo.

28. Kyle S Posted: August 15, 2008 at 12:16 AM (#2904106)

Why have they given up on Owings so fast? It's not like it was long ago that he was pitching well - he had thrown well all year through May! What's wrong with him?

29. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 15, 2008 at 01:56 AM (#2904142)

Because the Dbacks had to give up someone somewhat valuable to get Dunn and $2m, and Buck and Castillo don't qualify.
I also think it's a roster crunch question with Micah. Webb, Haren and Davis are under contract for next year, and Scherzer will be given a spot in the rotation as well. On top of that, I think RJ will come back for another season--and they've got Petit as the 6th starter, with Buckner lurking in there as well. Micah really didn't show much coming out of the pen in the short time he was tried there... no increase on his fastball velocity, no improved control. Tough to decide what to do with him next year.

30. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 15, 2008 at 04:23 PM (#2904696)

I like this trade less for Cincinnati than I did when I didn't know who the PTBNLs were. It's really going to depend on the extent to which Owings and Buck bounce back. Castillo is roster filler.

-- MWE

31. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 15, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2904832)

Castillo can't hit but can fill in at 6 different position. A Dusty Baker type of a player.

32. shoewizard Posted: September 11, 2008 at 12:13 PM (#2937873)

So much of lineup protection. Dunn's hit OK, but he's been pitched around for the most part, drawing a ridiculous amount of walks, because Jackson, Reynolds, & Tracy have all been swinging wet noodles since Dunn arrived, so no need to pitch to him.

Of course Dunn has been an unmitigated disaster in RF. Fielding bible has him -8 in just 168 Innings in RF, and I can tell you as crazy a number as that is in so few innings, it doesn't begin to describe how poorly he has played in RF.

He hasn't given away all of his positive offensive value, but he's given away a sizable chunk of it. That combined with the collapse of Cojack, Reynolds and Tracy, have made this trade a complete and utter waste of Buck and Owings, regardless of what they become in the future.

I seriously doubt Dunn will be resigned, or that he will even want to resign with AZ.

33. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 11, 2008 at 12:17 PM (#2937879)

<i>That combined with the collapse of Cojack, Reynolds and Tracy, have made this trade a complete and utter waste of Buck and Owings, regardless of what they become in the future.</i.

Well...the arbitration--->draft picks still exist, so the Dbacks could soon have a new equivalent to Buck Owens....if all goes well...but small consolation.

34. shoewizard Posted: September 11, 2008 at 12:31 PM (#2937892)

Well, the other consolation is the D Backs are doing their best to move their draft position into the top 10.

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Diamondbacks - Acquired Dunn

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