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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Acquired OF Chris Burke, P Chad Qualls, and P Juan Gutierrez from the Houston Astros for P Jose Valverde
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, December 14, 2007
Diamondbacks - Acquired Haren, Traded Valverde
Arizona Diamondbacks - Acquired P Danny Haren and P Connor Robertson from the Oakland A's for OF Carlos Gonzalez, 1B The Black Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham, P Brett Anderson, P Greg Smith, and P Jumbo Eveland.Acquired OF Chris Burke, P Chad Qualls, and P Juan Gutierrez from the Houston Astros for P Jose Valverde
Let's just make this the super-sized Transaction Oracle!
For the first part of the trade, the Arizona-Oakland one, I like this trade from both sides. The A's simply aren't good enough to catch the Angels this season and not good enough to catch 2 of New York-Boston-Detroit-Cleveland, so, as Beane hinted at the end of the season, they're going to rebuild here. They better be as that's the only justification for letting Haren, who's signed cheaply for 3 more years, leave town. This does a good job at filling out some of the holes in the minors for the green-and-gold and while none except for Gonzalez are real impact prospects, the A's need to fish for a real impact hitter and they've been very good at developing solid starters out of a mass of pitching prospects. Gonzalez isn't ready this year and Carter won't be ready for a couple, but the A's have 1B-DH-OF options to sort through the next few years anyway. Same issue with Cunningham - they're going to also play him at AAA while they sort out the aforementioned options. So they gamble that one of Eveland-Smith-Anderson becomes a solid pitcher and come out ahead on the deal if it works out. You have to give credit for Beane for discipline - when the time comes to rebuild, no half ass "OK, we'll take lesser prospects if you throw in a guy who's a major leaguer!"
From the Diamondbacks point-of-view, they have farm system that's developed a lot of value and are one of the better teams in the NL, so it was time to condense some of that talent pool. Minor leaguers aren't just for using - they're also for trading when they need arises. This is something Terry Ryan didn't do several years ago when the Twins had a lot of young outfielders with trade value, they just sat on them until they disappointed, for one reason or another. One can't help but feel that Byrnes is smiling at the idea of Webb-Haren pitching a lot in the playoffs. He no doubt knows he's giving up value and that some of the players will be good players someday, but I think he recognizes the cost.
Then, there's the other half of the trade. It's OK from Arizona's perspective - I'm not a huge fan of the players coming back. Qualls shouldn't be that steep of a downgrade and Burke has role player use and Gutierrez still has upside, but given that Valverde's a Magical Proven Closer, I would think he could get a little more in return.;
As for the Astros, they get another really solid reliever, but from a tactical standpoint, this is an absolute nightmare. They've emptied out what was left of the scraps of their farm system and still only have 1 starting pitcher. If any starting position players get injured, this could get ugly fast - Loretta will have to replace an injured Matsui at some point, leaving them essentially with Cruz Jr. and Blum. No team that thinks they're in contention should be a couple of bad hops from Geoff Blum, Starting 1B. Yes, the bullpen should be pretty good. When they come in for the 6th inning with the team behind 7-1, they'll keep that lead from becoming 7 on the way to an Astros 7-2 loss.
Now, could teams stop making huge trades and ex-Senators stop releasing cover-your-ass reports for a few days so I can finish the damn Rockies projections?
More projections soon! I'm late for a dinner reservation - I didn't expect something like this to pop up.
Addendum: Alberto Callaspo was also traded for Billy Buckner. The Royals get the wife-beating discount here. The Diamondbacks clearly didn't have him in their plans and with the Royals looking to acquire young players that can hit anything, they figured it was worth a shot for a soon-to-be organizational pitcher. Grudz is still the starter, but the team doesn't consider German good enough defensively to play 2nd full-time, so Callaspo might get a shot at a starting job in 2009, provided he behaves himself.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Danny Haren
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 14 11 33 33 216 214 94 27 46 177 3.92 120
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Opt. (15%) 17 8 34 34 232 208 79 23 40 207 3.06 153
Pes. (15%) 9 11 27 27 174 190 94 28 46 128 4.86 97
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Top Comps: Mike Mussina, Don Newcombe
2008 ZiPS Projection - Juan Gutierrez
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 5 11 29 28 153 173 101 27 64 89 5.94 79
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Opt. (15%) 8 10 32 29 176 180 91 23 58 118 4.65 101
Pes. (15%) 3 10 24 22 123 152 92 25 57 64 6.73 70
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Top Comps: Jay Hook, Buck Ross
2008 ZiPS Projection - Connor Robertson
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 3 4 45 0 62 65 33 7 29 49 4.79 98
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Opt. (15%) 5 3 50 0 72 68 30 6 25 62 3.75 125
Pes. (15%) 2 4 37 0 50 57 32 7 27 34 5.76 81
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Top Comps: Jay Powell, Terry Adams
2008 ZiPS Projection - Chad Qualls
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 6 5 79 0 84 85 39 10 27 59 4.18 112
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Opt. (15%) 8 5 90 0 97 94 39 9 28 70 3.62 130
Pes. (15%) 3 6 68 0 69 79 41 11 28 41 5.35 88
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Top Comps: Bob Scanlon, Rawley Eastwick
2008 ZiPS Projection - Brett Anderson
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 8 11 24 24 122 140 70 19 33 83 5.16 83
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Opt. (15%) 11 10 27 27 139 144 66 18 31 110 4.27 100
Pes. (15%) 5 11 20 20 98 125 70 21 31 59 6.43 66
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Top Comps: Jerry Garvin, Dick Ellsworth
2008 ZiPS Projection - Greg Smith
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 7 9 24 24 134 151 75 16 52 71 5.04 85
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Opt. (15%) 10 8 26 26 153 158 70 14 49 92 4.12 104
Pes. (15%) 4 10 20 20 108 135 73 17 47 46 6.08 70
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Top Comps: Wade Blasingame, Fred Heimach
2008 ZiPS Projection - Dana Eveland
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 3 4 21 15 80 83 40 6 38 57 4.50 95
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Opt. (15%) 5 3 23 17 92 87 37 5 37 72 3.62 118
Pes. (15%) 2 4 18 13 64 74 41 8 36 41 5.77 74
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Top Comps: Jim Kaat, Dave LaPoint
2008 ZiPS Projection - Jose Valverde
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 4 2 64 0 69 54 24 7 27 88 3.13 138
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Opt. (15%) 6 1 70 0 79 54 19 6 25 110 2.16 199
Pes. (15%) 2 3 53 0 55 49 26 8 26 65 4.25 101
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Top Comps: John Wetteland, Crazy Jeff Nelson
2008 ZiPS Projection - Chris Burke
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Projection 398 64 101 24 1 8 45 35 66 16 .253 .330 .380 80
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Opt. (15%) 465 89 132 34 4 14 68 48 71 22 .284 .365 .465 109
Pes. (15%) 297 39 67 15 1 5 30 20 58 8 .226 .284 .333 57
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Top Comps: Mike Lansing, Frank Bolling
2008 ZiPS Projection - Chris Carter
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Projection 503 37 110 22 2 21 71 45 131 2 .219 .289 .396 82
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Opt. (15%) 538 47 133 26 2 25 88 53 126 5 .246 .323 .446 103
Pes. (15%) 471 31 96 18 0 18 61 38 131 0 .204 .265 .356 65
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Top Comps: Hawk Harrelson, Tom Brunansky
2008 ZiPS Projection - Carlos Gonzalez
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Projection 499 47 114 33 1 11 58 26 122 10 .228 .271 .365 68
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Opt. (15%) 552 62 140 41 4 16 77 37 116 17 .254 .305 .429 94
Pes. (15%) 439 34 89 25 0 8 43 18 117 7 .203 .236 .314 46
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Top Comps: Mel Almada, Charlie Grimm
2008 ZiPS Projection - Aaron Cunningham
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Projection 483 56 123 28 4 12 52 36 98 22 .255 .316 .404 91
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Opt. (15%) 524 74 148 36 6 18 83 44 90 30 .282 .348 .477 118
Pes. (15%) 452 43 102 24 2 9 49 28 99 15 .226 .275 .347 65
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Top Comps: Mel Almada, Charlie Grimm
2008 ZiPS Projection - Billy Buckner
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Projection 6 13 33 25 152 173 97 26 72 98 5.74 82
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Opt. (15%) 9 12 36 27 174 180 92 24 69 126 4.76 99
Pes. (15%) 4 12 27 20 123 152 91 24 65 88 6.66 71
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Top Comps: Herm Wehmeier, Ryan Dempster
2008 ZiPS Projection - Alberto Callaspo
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Projection 486 67 140 25 4 7 49 42 31 4 .288 .345 .399 89
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Opt. (15%) 525 84 163 32 7 10 70 53 26 8 .310 .374 .455 110
Pes. (15%) 441 50 115 18 3 3 41 31 34 0 .261 .309 .336 64
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Top Comps: Jerry Browne, Brent Gates
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I haven't followed the A's moves closely in recent years, but this looks like the move of a GM who understands exactly where he is in the success cycle. Paging Mr. Sabean...
-- MWE
It's also what Byrnes didn't do with Hairston or Quentin.
I like the gamble for Arizona. They could've been conservative and waited another year to see what progress was made by Reynolds, Drew, Young, and Upton to make the all-in move, but I like this specific bit of aggression from Byrnes because Haren fits their needs perfectly.
I think Valverde is just the opposite sort of move - Byrnes playing it safe. Maybe they could've hauled in more down the line, but it would've been risky and too expensive. I don't think they could've afforded for Valverde to get hurt or implode, however.
That said, the offseason moves have me concerned about the team's depth.
Mike, as per the best player (or best potential player) rule, I'd say the D-backs won, though they did give up about 5 potential regulars (which strikes me as ridiculous) - I see Gonzales and Anderson as the key prospects (none of whom is going to better than Haren IMO), Cunnningham as the solid regular, Eveland/Smith as flier arms (4th/5th SP) types and Carter as the raw power shot. Its certainly a price, but is it that ridiculous?
It's a 120 ERA+ projection. That's damn good and better than Haren's career mark of 113. That would put him 11th in the NL last year.
And the "regression" may be mostly unearned runs -- Haren gave up 15 last year! But not sure how ZIPS deals with those.
I think he was probably surprised that Haren went from a ZIPS of 3.91 in the stronger DH league to 3.92 in the NL. But, yeah, it's the park.
If I wake up in the morning and the Diamondbacks acquired Santana for Young, Scherzer, Parker, and another Chris Carter they found somewhere, I'm going to be really pissd.
As for Haren
Year ERA FIP
2005 3.73 3.84
2006 4.12 4.06
2007 3.07 3.82
He didn't really get lucky with $H, being about the level he usually was, but he did get lucky on how everything combined. Pitchers don't just outperform the combination of their HR/BB/SO, they also can outperform the combination of known hits and HR/BB/SO.
ZiPS regresses him a lot because there's no history of Haren outperforming any of the component based measures while ZiPS gives Glavine more the benefit of the doubt.
The park differences are quite large. Oakland's pretty dependably strong for pitchers and Arizona the reverse and there's usually not a huge variance in Oakland's park factor because the foul territory's always there and always large.
I'm liking the Kaat comp for Dana. I don't really see it, but I like it.
Without looking at the stats, I'll take David Wells for an Eveland comp. Terry Forster too.
For CHONE I'll publish an update before the year is out, but I've got Haren's ERA going up .04 points, park offsetting league. But he's slightly more valuable in fantasy because he gets a 20 strikeout boost.
(pause)
Or don't. I wouldn't.
ZiPS thinks Dan Haren is gonna be a HOF pitcher or close to it!
Isn't Billy Buckner the guy that let the ground ball go through his legs during the 1986 World Series?
You sure you're from around here?
Little secret, Penita is overrated.
I don't think that's true, Brandon.
I'm not sold on Haren over the long haul. I see him, like Zito, as picking up a good portion of his value from the ballpark, especially since he's got flyball tendencies (albeit not nearly as strong as Zito's). I don't see "elite pitcher" in his numbers. Gonzalez is the best potential player in the deal, IMO.
-- MWE
I've always said minor leaguers are for trading for players that you can't get otherwise. It's trading minor leaguers for mediocrity or making minor leaguers for for jobs against the mediocre I have an issue with. Haren's not really a 3.00 ERA guy, but he's a guy you can't get in the FA market and even if you could, it'd probably cost *twice* what he's getting the next 3 years.
2007) 219 IP 3.41 ERA 1.279 WHIP 25-57-188 (HR-BB-K)
2006) 221 IP 4.27 ERA 1.238 WHIP 32-46-174
2005) 215 IP 3.93 ERA 1.260 WHIP 27-54-161
I think Dan's projection of 3.92, 120 ERA+ is spot on. Haren is not "Elite"...but he's really good. But he is pretty streaky within the season. Each of the last 3 seasons is marked by stretches where he was great for 2-3 months, and pretty mediocre or even poor for a couple of months at a time.
I think Dan's projection shows just how far away Carlos Gonzalez is from being a useful major leaguer. On November 11th I wrote Here:
He is just simply overrated.
Can't hit lefty's. Strikes out too much. Doesn't walk enough. Has a poor attitude and is lackadaisical in the field.
I hope they can trade him before the rest of the league figures it out, although I am sure they have.
Actually, I've felt this way about him for a Long time
Watching him play a little in 2006 and a little more a year ago, I didn't see anything that would have led me to believe that either the first sentence or the last sentence is true. His K rate is well within the 1/4 cutoff that I use. It is true that he doesn't walk a whole lot, but he makes up for it by stinging the ball when he puts it into play (.339 hBIP a year ago for Mobile, with .115 in-play ISO; Mobile's not the easiest place in the world to hit). One thing I did notice was that even when he was struggling, in 2006 after his promotion, he did hit the ball hard and with gap power when he connected.
-- MWE
Did you happen to take a look at Gonzalez's home road splits for 2006?
Lancaster 361/414/693
Road 239/295/433
I really think if you are just looking at statistics, you can pretty much throw 2006 out the window. It has no use for evaluation purposes. The Lancaster environment is just so extreme that it makes it impossible to make any sense of the numbers.
I could be wrong about Gonzalez....I am certainly open to that possibility. But until he proves otherwise, he is a platoon player in my mind, not a full time regular major leaguer.
Talk of a horny pig..
Home BA/OBP/SLG: .242/.285/.381
Road BA/OBP/SLG: .264/.311/.439
Home in-play BA/ISO: .274/.069
Road in-play BA/ISO: .302/.095
Home GB%: 45.4%
Road GB%: 46.5%
Home LD%: 21.8%
Road LD%: 20.0%
Home HR/FB: 10.7%
Road HR/FB: 12.9%
Normal in-play BA/ISO, the way I calculate it (excluding bunts and pitcher hitting) is around .300/.075
Normal GB% is around 47-48%; Haren is a mild flyballer
Normal LD% is in the low-20% range
Normal HR/FB rate is around 10%
The only thing he does better on the road is to allow fewer line drives. Everything else is better at McAfee Coliseum, in some cases substantially better. The in-play numbers, in particular, are a reason for concern; Haren's giving up fewer FBs on the road, which would drive the in-play BA up (marginally) but should drive in in-play ISO down (marginally fewer doubles and triples). That's not happening.
-- MWE
ERA around 4.40 and a near-500 record.
-- MWE
Not significantly better last year, and I'd expect Swisher to get less PT in CF this year, which will help both CF and RF. Young and Upton are still learning the hitters.
-- MWE
I think this is horribly pessimistic. What about the fact that Haren is entering his year 27 season, which for many pitchers is the prime of their career?
Now, after light consideration, I too will throw out an arbitrary projection based on this mess of numbers that I will overanalyze.
Haren will put up a 0.4129 ERA and have a winning percentage of around forty-sixty.
Nonetheless, given the current assumption for the 2008 AZ roster, I would take the UNDER on a 4.16 ERA (midway between Dan's and Mike's projections) and the OVER on a .520 (midway) winning percentage.
2007 may have been a career year for Haren, but I still think his ability is right around 3.25-3.50 ERA going forward. He's moving from a great pitcher's park to a great hitter's park, but I think that's offset by four factors:
(1) Weaker NL lineups and no DH.
(2) Haren's entering the prime seasons of his career.
(3) Outstanding AZ outfield defense. Brynes is possibly the best defensive LF in baseball; Young is already a good CF and likely to get better; and Upton is inexperienced in RF, but has speed and an arm.
(4) Pitcher's parks in the NL West (LA, SD, SF).
---
Mike, I understand where you're coming from, but I think you over-react. Look at Javy Vazquez's year in Arizona, which as has been pointed out is very similar to the year you project Haren to have. Vazquez gave up a ton of homers, had horrible luck on balls in play, played in front of a terrible defense, and gave up very few unearned runs... and STILL had an ERA of just 4.42, with K/BB numbers right around where Haren should be. So while I think Haren could easily have a season like you describe, I don't think it's the median expectation. Do you disagree? If not, why would you project an "unlucky" season? If so, with which part(s) of my analysis?
Haren .274/.341/.425 .766 OPS
AL Average .271/.341/.423 .763 OPS
For Comparison, the guy who he's replacing in the rotation, Livan Hernandez
.263/.338/.412 .748 OPS
NL Average .266/.334/.423 .757 OPS
I did.
Going into 2005, Vazquez had:
-- a better K rate for his career than Haren has now, by 3/4 of a K per game (Haren's best year, last year, was about equal to Vazquez's career rate entering 2005).
-- about the same rate of hits allowed.
-- a lower rate of HR/FB allowed (Vazquez was more of a FB pitcher than Haren).
Vazquez did NOT have horrible luck on BIP in 2005; the in-play BA against him was .300, which given his increased GB rate represents a more or less normal fluctuation.
Haren allows more balls in play than Vazquez, AND a higher percentage of the ones in the air leave the park, even in a relatively friendly park like Oakland's. His in-play BAs have been relatively low (.288 for his years in Oakland; during Vazquez's last three years in Expoland, FWIW, his in-play BA was virtually identical to Haren's). Haren's peripherals of a year ago suggested an ERA of around 3.60, not the 3.07 he actually posted, which is more consistent with his previous two years in which he posted ERAs of 3.73 and 4.12 (with peripherals that supported ERAs in that range) - so he's probably not as good as 2007 would have you believe. HR hitters, IMO, are a little more prevalent in the NL (adjusted for pitching, the average NL team had about 1 more HR per lineup slot than the AL), even though overall hitting is weaker; that plays right into Haren's biggest weakness, his high rate of allowing HR when the ball is hit into the air.
I can easily see Haren allowing 35-40 HRs in Arizona, and that alone will likely push his ERA into the 4.30-4.50 range, even if nothing else changes. If he also allows more non-HR hits - something that I also see as having a good chance of happening - that, too, will bump the ERA upward.
Haren's not as good as Javy Vazquez was when he was in Montreal; he doesn't miss as many bats and he allows the ball to be hit harder, on balance. For those reasons, I think that Vazquez's 2005 season represents the BEST that can be expected of Haren, not the median.
-- MWE
It's a game of adjustments. I think Haren can adjust his style to avoid that, throw the slider more.
Well, just shoot me then.
Haren trade gives D-backs the bigs' best 1-2 punch
Not sure about a Webb-Vazquez combo though...
Also, mentioning the difference between Haren's Home/Road splits is fine, but I think AZ would take those 07 road splits (ERA 3.34, 735 OPS) at chase - and take thier chances with him going on the road to Petco / LA / SF to improve his numbers. He did compile those pretty good road numbers by going to Jacobs / Arlington / DET / NYY / Etc with a DH.
Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 Prospects for 2008
Top 5 are B+ or B, the rest are B- or below
1 Jarrod Parker, RHP, Grade B+
2 Max Scherzer, RHP, Grade B+
3 Gerardo Parra, OF, Grade B
4 Billy Buckner, RHP, Grade B
5 Wes Roemer, RHP, Grade B
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