Enjoy dinner, Dan. We always appreciate your diligence.

I haven't followed the A's moves closely in recent years, but this looks like the move of a GM who understands exactly where he is in the success cycle. Paging Mr. Sabean...

Way too much for the D'backs to give up for Haren, although I understand why they did it.

-- MWE

This is something Terry Ryan didn't do several years ago when the Twins had a lot of young outfielders with trade value, they just sat on them until they disappointed, for one reason or another.

It's also what Byrnes didn't do with Hairston or Quentin.

I like the gamble for Arizona. They could've been conservative and waited another year to see what progress was made by Reynolds, Drew, Young, and Upton to make the all-in move, but I like this specific bit of aggression from Byrnes because Haren fits their needs perfectly.

I think Valverde is just the opposite sort of move - Byrnes playing it safe. Maybe they could've hauled in more down the line, but it would've been risky and too expensive. I don't think they could've afforded for Valverde to get hurt or implode, however.

That said, the offseason moves have me concerned about the team's depth.

Whoa - that projection is pretty awful, going from the AL to the NL. I understand Bank One is more of a hitters-park than Oakland, but is this just regression to the mean on Haren's part?

Way too much for the D'backs to give up for Haren, although I understand why they did it.

-- MWE

Mike, as per the best player (or best potential player) rule, I'd say the D-backs won, though they did give up about 5 potential regulars (which strikes me as ridiculous) - I see Gonzales and Anderson as the key prospects (none of whom is going to better than Haren IMO), Cunnningham as the solid regular, Eveland/Smith as flier arms (4th/5th SP) types and Carter as the raw power shot. Its certainly a price, but is it that ridiculous?

Does this make the D'Backs the early favorites in the NL? I really like their roster right now.

Whoa - that projection is pretty awful, going from the AL to the NL. I understand Bank One is more of a hitters-park than Oakland, but is this just regression to the mean on Haren's part?

It's a 120 ERA+ projection. That's damn good and better than Haren's career mark of 113. That would put him 11th in the NL last year.

And the "regression" may be mostly unearned runs -- Haren gave up 15 last year! But not sure how ZIPS deals with those.

Dan, could you include the analysis of the Callaspo-for-Buckner trade in this trade as well?

It's a 120 ERA+ projection. That's damn good and better than Haren's career mark of 113. That would put him 11th in the NL last year.

I think he was probably surprised that Haren went from a ZIPS of 3.91 in the stronger DH league to 3.92 in the NL. But, yeah, it's the park.

Dammit, Arizona keeps doing stuff!

If I wake up in the morning and the Diamondbacks acquired Santana for Young, Scherzer, Parker, and another Chris Carter they found somewhere, I'm going to be really pissd.

As for Haren

Year ERA FIP
2005 3.73 3.84
2006 4.12 4.06
2007 3.07 3.82

He didn't really get lucky with $H, being about the level he usually was, but he did get lucky on how everything combined. Pitchers don't just outperform the combination of their HR/BB/SO, they also can outperform the combination of known hits and HR/BB/SO.

ZiPS regresses him a lot because there's no history of Haren outperforming any of the component based measures while ZiPS gives Glavine more the benefit of the doubt.

The park differences are quite large. Oakland's pretty dependably strong for pitchers and Arizona the reverse and there's usually not a huge variance in Oakland's park factor because the foul territory's always there and always large.

I think this is a fantastic deal for the D-backs, but I haven't seen any of the minor leaguers play as Emeigh likely has. How old is this Chris Carter? This isn't the kid who was just traded from the White Sox, is it?

Do Gonzalez and Cunningham really have the same comps?

I'm liking the Kaat comp for Dana. I don't really see it, but I like it.

Yes, this is the young Carter who was traded from the White Sox. Other Chris Carter plays for the Red Sox. Another one writes in Hollywood, probably on strike right now. Yet another one, missing the H, is retired but there was a time when all he did was catch touchdowns.

Without looking at the stats, I'll take David Wells for an Eveland comp. Terry Forster too.

For CHONE I'll publish an update before the year is out, but I've got Haren's ERA going up .04 points, park offsetting league. But he's slightly more valuable in fantasy because he gets a 20 strikeout boost.

Dan, another trade - this one with the Pads/Cards, not Arizona. Think of it as Winter Meetings 2, Ecletic Swaparoo.
(pause)
Or don't. I wouldn't.

One thing I'd like to add: part of this trade is about maintaining momentum and credibility for the organization in Phoenix.

Top Comps: Mike Mussina, Don Newcombe

ZiPS thinks Dan Haren is gonna be a HOF pitcher or close to it!

Alberto Callaspo was also traded for Billy Buckner

Isn't Billy Buckner the guy that let the ground ball go through his legs during the 1986 World Series?

Minor leaguers aren't just for using - they're also for trading when they need arises.

You sure you're from around here?

Callaspo's pessimistic prediction has an OPS+ just two points lower than Tony Penita's 2007 OPS.

Little secret, Penita is overrated.

Little secret, Penita is overrated.

I don't think that's true, Brandon.

Mike, as per the best player (or best potential player) rule, I'd say the D-backs won

I'm not sold on Haren over the long haul. I see him, like Zito, as picking up a good portion of his value from the ballpark, especially since he's got flyball tendencies (albeit not nearly as strong as Zito's). I don't see "elite pitcher" in his numbers. Gonzalez is the best potential player in the deal, IMO.

-- MWE

When I first read about it I thought it was Billy Butler, and wondered why there wasn't any outrage.

Is Carlos González that good? I would think the A's could have gotten at least one legit A prospect for Haren--why didn't Beane hold out for Justin Upton?

IFIFIF Upton could be part of the deal, I would expect it to be Haren+something for Upton, quite frankly. Gonzalez is a very good prospect, and him plus 5 more guys is pretty good.

I dunno, I always thought B prospects had very little value--if you're trading a current star, you want to be damn sure you get a future one, not just a bunch'a'guys.

You sure you're from around here?

I've always said minor leaguers are for trading for players that you can't get otherwise. It's trading minor leaguers for mediocrity or making minor leaguers for for jobs against the mediocre I have an issue with. Haren's not really a 3.00 ERA guy, but he's a guy you can't get in the FA market and even if you could, it'd probably cost *twice* what he's getting the next 3 years.

fight for jobs, not for for jobs.

I'm not sure whether this is a good trade for the A's, but it sure is exciting. And I agree with the blow up the team strategy.

Here are Haren's last 3 seasons neutralized into 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks context:

2007) 219 IP 3.41 ERA 1.279 WHIP 25-57-188 (HR-BB-K)
2006) 221 IP 4.27 ERA 1.238 WHIP 32-46-174
2005) 215 IP 3.93 ERA 1.260 WHIP 27-54-161

I think Dan's projection of 3.92, 120 ERA+ is spot on. Haren is not "Elite"...but he's really good. But he is pretty streaky within the season. Each of the last 3 seasons is marked by stretches where he was great for 2-3 months, and pretty mediocre or even poor for a couple of months at a time.

I think Dan's projection shows just how far away Carlos Gonzalez is from being a useful major leaguer. On November 11th I wrote Here:


He is just simply overrated.

Can't hit lefty's. Strikes out too much. Doesn't walk enough. Has a poor attitude and is lackadaisical in the field.

I hope they can trade him before the rest of the league figures it out, although I am sure they have.

Actually, I've felt this way about him for a Long time

Can't hit lefty's. Strikes out too much. Doesn't walk enough. Has a poor attitude and is lackadaisical in the field.

Watching him play a little in 2006 and a little more a year ago, I didn't see anything that would have led me to believe that either the first sentence or the last sentence is true. His K rate is well within the 1/4 cutoff that I use. It is true that he doesn't walk a whole lot, but he makes up for it by stinging the ball when he puts it into play (.339 hBIP a year ago for Mobile, with .115 in-play ISO; Mobile's not the easiest place in the world to hit). One thing I did notice was that even when he was struggling, in 2006 after his promotion, he did hit the ball hard and with gap power when he connected.

-- MWE

While Gonzalez struggled against LHP in 2007, he hit .278/.345/.571 against them in 2006 (better than his line against RHP). I wouldn't take too much from a single season L/R split.

Almost all of that line was put up in Lancaster Danny. He only had 18 at bats vs. lefties in Tennessee in 2006 so of course you can't tell anything from that, other than that he struggled. Basically I discount almost everything that happened in Lancaster. I learned the hard way.

Did you happen to take a look at Gonzalez's home road splits for 2006?

Lancaster 361/414/693
Road 239/295/433

I really think if you are just looking at statistics, you can pretty much throw 2006 out the window. It has no use for evaluation purposes. The Lancaster environment is just so extreme that it makes it impossible to make any sense of the numbers.

I could be wrong about Gonzalez....I am certainly open to that possibility. But until he proves otherwise, he is a platoon player in my mind, not a full time regular major leaguer.

No one noticed "Cummingham"

No one noticed "Cummingham"

Talk of a horny pig..

Consider these home/road splits for Haren for his three years with Oakland:

Home BA/OBP/SLG: .242/.285/.381
Road BA/OBP/SLG: .264/.311/.439

Home in-play BA/ISO: .274/.069
Road in-play BA/ISO: .302/.095

Home GB%: 45.4%
Road GB%: 46.5%

Home LD%: 21.8%
Road LD%: 20.0%

Home HR/FB: 10.7%
Road HR/FB: 12.9%

Normal in-play BA/ISO, the way I calculate it (excluding bunts and pitcher hitting) is around .300/.075
Normal GB% is around 47-48%; Haren is a mild flyballer
Normal LD% is in the low-20% range
Normal HR/FB rate is around 10%

The only thing he does better on the road is to allow fewer line drives. Everything else is better at McAfee Coliseum, in some cases substantially better. The in-play numbers, in particular, are a reason for concern; Haren's giving up fewer FBs on the road, which would drive the in-play BA up (marginally) but should drive in in-play ISO down (marginally fewer doubles and triples). That's not happening.

-- MWE

So whats your projection for Haren next year Mike?

So whats your projection for Haren next year Mike?

ERA around 4.40 and a near-500 record.

-- MWE

OK, well noted. Thanks for the input. Certainly something to think about. Hope you are wrong. ;)

What about defenses, though? Haren's moving into a worse park, but he's also moving in front of a better outfield.

Haren's moving into a worse park, but he's also moving in front of a better outfield.

Not significantly better last year, and I'd expect Swisher to get less PT in CF this year, which will help both CF and RF. Young and Upton are still learning the hitters.

-- MWE

So basically you are saying that Haren is Javy Vasquez.

ERA around 4.40 and a near-500 record.

I think this is horribly pessimistic. What about the fact that Haren is entering his year 27 season, which for many pitchers is the prime of their career?

Consider these home/road splits for Haren for his three years with Oakland:

Home BA/OBP/SLG: .242/.285/.381
Road BA/OBP/SLG: .264/.311/.439

Home in-play BA/ISO: .274/.069
Road in-play BA/ISO: .302/.095

Home GB%: 45.4%
Road GB%: 46.5%

Home LD%: 21.8%
Road LD%: 20.0%

Home HR/FB: 10.7%
Road HR/FB: 12.9%

Normal in-play BA/ISO, the way I calculate it (excluding bunts and pitcher hitting) is around .300/.075
Normal GB% is around 47-48%; Haren is a mild flyballer
Normal LD% is in the low-20% range
Normal HR/FB rate is around 10%

Now, after light consideration, I too will throw out an arbitrary projection based on this mess of numbers that I will overanalyze.

Haren will put up a 0.4129 ERA and have a winning percentage of around forty-sixty.

I have a lot of respect for Mike. I don't agree with him here, (how could I?). But that doesn't mean I dismiss his thought process or conclusions out of hand. He's basically just saying, in a roundabout way, that Haren is homer prone and people are underestimating the differences between the two ballparks. I agree on both points, and have labored to inform the "average Diamondback fan" of the same things, I just feel he is overstating the effects. If you talk to the D Back fan in the street, they think we got somebody who is going to post a sub 3 ERA now that he's in the NL, and will be in lock step with Webb for Cy Young Contention all year. Me telling them ...no....Haren is more likely to be somewhere around 4, and be solidly above average, but not a true Cy Young contender ....well,....they don't take it so well. My reasoning is based on more or less the same things Mike is talking about. I just don't agree on the SIZE of the effect.

Shoe - I, also, have been saying essentially the same thing in my limited circle of Dback fans. But I confess I lost a little confidence in my own personal outlook for Haren after reading Mike's comments. Even if I agree with the direction of Mike's adjustments for Haren, I do not take lightly disagreeing with the magnitude of those adjustments.

Nonetheless, given the current assumption for the 2008 AZ roster, I would take the UNDER on a 4.16 ERA (midway between Dan's and Mike's projections) and the OVER on a .520 (midway) winning percentage.

that should read "I do not take lightly disagreeing with Mike on the magnitude of those adjustments."

I'll project a 3.92 ERA, and a winning percentage of of .560 for Haren this year.

My prediction: 3.25-3.50 ERA; 210 innings.

2007 may have been a career year for Haren, but I still think his ability is right around 3.25-3.50 ERA going forward. He's moving from a great pitcher's park to a great hitter's park, but I think that's offset by four factors:

(1) Weaker NL lineups and no DH.

(2) Haren's entering the prime seasons of his career.

(3) Outstanding AZ outfield defense. Brynes is possibly the best defensive LF in baseball; Young is already a good CF and likely to get better; and Upton is inexperienced in RF, but has speed and an arm.

(4) Pitcher's parks in the NL West (LA, SD, SF).

I agree with bibigon. I like to go out on a limb.

---

Mike, I understand where you're coming from, but I think you over-react. Look at Javy Vazquez's year in Arizona, which as has been pointed out is very similar to the year you project Haren to have. Vazquez gave up a ton of homers, had horrible luck on balls in play, played in front of a terrible defense, and gave up very few unearned runs... and STILL had an ERA of just 4.42, with K/BB numbers right around where Haren should be. So while I think Haren could easily have a season like you describe, I don't think it's the median expectation. Do you disagree? If not, why would you project an "unlucky" season? If so, with which part(s) of my analysis?

I was looking at the strength of competition report at baseball prospectus:

Haren .274/.341/.425 .766 OPS
AL Average .271/.341/.423 .763 OPS

For Comparison, the guy who he's replacing in the rotation, Livan Hernandez

.263/.338/.412 .748 OPS

NL Average .266/.334/.423 .757 OPS

Look at Javy Vazquez's year in Arizona, which as has been pointed out is very similar to the year you project Haren to have.

I did.

Going into 2005, Vazquez had:

-- a better K rate for his career than Haren has now, by 3/4 of a K per game (Haren's best year, last year, was about equal to Vazquez's career rate entering 2005).
-- about the same rate of hits allowed.
-- a lower rate of HR/FB allowed (Vazquez was more of a FB pitcher than Haren).

Vazquez did NOT have horrible luck on BIP in 2005; the in-play BA against him was .300, which given his increased GB rate represents a more or less normal fluctuation.

Haren allows more balls in play than Vazquez, AND a higher percentage of the ones in the air leave the park, even in a relatively friendly park like Oakland's. His in-play BAs have been relatively low (.288 for his years in Oakland; during Vazquez's last three years in Expoland, FWIW, his in-play BA was virtually identical to Haren's). Haren's peripherals of a year ago suggested an ERA of around 3.60, not the 3.07 he actually posted, which is more consistent with his previous two years in which he posted ERAs of 3.73 and 4.12 (with peripherals that supported ERAs in that range) - so he's probably not as good as 2007 would have you believe. HR hitters, IMO, are a little more prevalent in the NL (adjusted for pitching, the average NL team had about 1 more HR per lineup slot than the AL), even though overall hitting is weaker; that plays right into Haren's biggest weakness, his high rate of allowing HR when the ball is hit into the air.

I can easily see Haren allowing 35-40 HRs in Arizona, and that alone will likely push his ERA into the 4.30-4.50 range, even if nothing else changes. If he also allows more non-HR hits - something that I also see as having a good chance of happening - that, too, will bump the ERA upward.

Haren's not as good as Javy Vazquez was when he was in Montreal; he doesn't miss as many bats and he allows the ball to be hit harder, on balance. For those reasons, I think that Vazquez's 2005 season represents the BEST that can be expected of Haren, not the median.

-- MWE

> I can easily see Haren allowing 35-40 HRs in Arizona

It's a game of adjustments. I think Haren can adjust his style to avoid that, throw the slider more.

I think that Vazquez's 2005 season represents the BEST that can be expected of Haren, not the median.

Well, just shoot me then.

Not sure if the following David Pinto article was posted here (was away for a week), but I found it interesting.

Haren trade gives D-backs the bigs' best 1-2 punch

Webb and Haren, as you see, blow away the competition. I will offer one caveat, however. Haren's projection of 79 earned runs allowed is based on his career in Oakland, a good park for pitchers (park factor 0.93). He is moving to a park that favors hitters (Chase Field's park factor is 1.11). Adjusting his earned-runs-allowed projection for this brings the projection up to 97 runs (79*[1.11/0.93]).

That would reduce the Webb-Haren combo to 54.6 earned runs prevented, still best in the majors.

Not sure about a Webb-Vazquez combo though...

Not a big fan of the Javier Vazquez comparison - comparing one pitcher who was in his prime years - to another entering them.

Also, mentioning the difference between Haren's Home/Road splits is fine, but I think AZ would take those 07 road splits (ERA 3.34, 735 OPS) at chase - and take thier chances with him going on the road to Petco / LA / SF to improve his numbers. He did compile those pretty good road numbers by going to Jacobs / Arlington / DET / NYY / Etc with a DH.

Then again, JV has been 2 different pitchers from when he was with MON, and his time with NYY and AZ. He was pretty messed up (head and mechanics) with NYY and AZ - so who knows. IF you are comparing Haren with Montreal Javy - than that doesnt sound that bad to me. I know it isnt that black and white..

John Sickels has the post-trades Dbacks top 20 prospect list

Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 Prospects for 2008

Top 5 are B+ or B, the rest are B- or below

1 Jarrod Parker, RHP, Grade B+
2 Max Scherzer, RHP, Grade B+
3 Gerardo Parra, OF, Grade B
4 Billy Buckner, RHP, Grade B
5 Wes Roemer, RHP, Grade B