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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Saturday, February 23, 2008Diamondbacks - Signed NixonArizona Diamondbacks - Signed RF Trot Nixon to a minor-league contract.Injuries have brought Nixon to the brink of toastdom, but if he's healthy, Chase is a great place to try to revive your career. If I'm Trot Nixon and already have made $30 million, I'd rather play for the Diamondbacks for nearly free (though in this case, he gets decent money if he makes the team) rather than a token $5 million from a tougher environment and give my career every chance to turn around. Nixon's hardly guaranteed a shot - Tracy not being ready would be a huge boost here. Another 2007, however, and we won't have him to kick around anymore. 2008 ZiPS Projection - Trot Nixon
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ DR
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Projection 297 39 82 19 0 6 42 41 40 0 .276 .367 .401 96 -2
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Opt. (15%) 363 55 104 24 0 8 48 62 45 1 .287 .394 .419 107 1
Pes. (15%) 263 22 63 12 0 3 24 35 45 0 .240 .331 .319 67 -6
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Top Offensive Comps: Russ Snyder, Gene Woodling
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This deal was a friendly gesture by JByrnes. This was a lot less about baseball and more about Nixon... Basically I think JByrnes is doing him a favor by giving him the opportunity to show in ST that he's healthy, so that he could potentially catch on with another team. Nixon would never go to the minors, so the whole contract is less about Nixon's future in AZ as it's about AZ having an out once Tracy is back... just in case Nixon doesn't want to go.
Nixon really is the last guy the Dbacks need. He's not a 4th outfielder (Salazar is) or 5th outfielder (Burke is). He cannot play 1b. He doesn't have power to be a solid pinch hitter (Tracy and Montero would both be ahead of him in the PH department if I were BoMel). He's basically a poor man's Sean Casey--a nice guy who once was pretty good, even though never as good as most people thought he was. Now he's just getting opportunities by the virtue of being a proven veteran and a really nice guy in the clubhouse.
Whatever, he's not going to contribute anything to AZ this season, as I really don't see him making the 25 man roster unless the four horses of the apocalypse come into camp this week. This is basically a chance that JB is giving him to show off in spring training games and potentially catch the eyes of Buzzie Bavasi's idiot son. Which is OK too...
Havn't non power hitters been shown to be more effective in pinch hitting situations? Guys who make contact and hit doubles, not the boom or bust sorts?
I read somewhere just recently that the 2007 Dbacks pinch hitters were 10th in BA but 1st in HRs in the majors last year. I'd take that statistic in 2008 in a heart beat.
Never mind that, I also think Nixon is toast, and won't hit home runs or doubles in 08. His trends since 04:
YEAR, SGL%, HR/F
2004, .510, 10.7%
2005, .446, 9.6%
2006, .394, 5.7%
2007, .336, 2.7%
Pardon me for thinking that his pessimistic line of .331 OBP/.319 SLG is his ceiling in 2008
I immediately wondered why the Giants hadn't snapped him up.
It's not hard to find a corner IF back-up and PH. One presumes they're waiting until some players get cut during spring training. That's the role Wes Helms was born to play, for instance.
I already see 15 guys for less than 15 spots:
Montero
Snyder
Jackson
Hudson
Drew
Reynolds
Burke
Ojeda
Upton
Young
Byrnes
Salazar
Hammock
Tracy
Nixon
Barring major injury in March, some combination of that group is going to be the 25. I don't see where they add anybody, particularly with their self-imposed budget concerns.
it's very easy to think of situations in which this comparison doesn't work. what if they lead the league with 3 home runs, but are 10th in batting average with the first place pinch hitters hitting .350?
as it turns out, arizona was 7th in ph batting average (.239), 2nd in runs scored (30), 1st in homers (11). st. louis led the majors in runs scored (35), batting average (.296), and was tied with 5 other teams for 12th in homers (5). i need to have a more in depth look, though, because just a quick look at the last five years shows all kinds of variation.
sigh
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