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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, April 07, 2008
Diamondbacks - Signed Young
Arizona Diamondbacks - Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year contract believed to be worth $30 million.The free agent market continues to mature - whereas teams have really gotten the hang of non-tendering arbitration-eligible players that aren't even worth the club's number, they're now generally getting more aggressive at locking up the players they want to keep while they still have the most leverage. I think it's going to be awhile until we start seeing successfully turning their teams around in the free agent market, at least until the pendulum swings the other way and teams start overvaluing their young players and undervaluing free agents.
Young's 2007 was a mild disappointment, but he was playing below his talent level that both stats and scouts agreed he had. With solid defense, Young's a major star if he hits .280 and even hitting .230, he should bring enough power and defense to be a net positive for $5 million a year. Thumbs up. These types of deals, even when they go bad, are almost never crippling.
ZiPS Projection - Chris Young
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date 23 7 5 2 0 3 4 7 9 2 .217 .400 .696
Rest-of-Yr? 548 81 134 32 3 30 96 52 123 23 .245 .317 .478
Proj. 2008 571 88 139 34 3 33 100 59 132 25 .243 .321 .487
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009? 566 86 135 31 2 35 105 53 149 26 .239 .308 .486
2010? 555 87 134 34 2 35 104 58 141 24 .241 .317 .499
2011? 555 88 134 32 2 36 105 59 149 25 .241 .318 .501
2012? 559 89 137 33 2 37 108 60 148 24 .245 .322 .510
2013? 547 86 134 32 1 36 105 57 145 22 .245 .320 .505
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Preston Wilson
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I imagine it will have to be a mature, and level-headed kind of player who the team could go to and say, "Look, we both know why your still in AAA. why don't we cut the crap. We'll bring you up right now if you'll sign a long-term deal and give us what we'd be saving by keeping you in AAA until June."
That'd be cool. Heck, it could work for Longoria right now.
I think we can guarantee that before long, a contract of this type would become the most embarrassing ever. More than Wayne Garland, Mike Hampton, whoever.
old BTF thread when he was sent down
(I do realize that the comparison might be based partially on race, but don't tell me that Murphy doesn't seem like a good comparison for Young).
It's just a joke. It wasn't meant to be pointed, really. Just an old saw.
Also, Dwayne Murphy had no power. At least if he's this dude.
I'm assuming this is another joke...?
I'm sorry. I'm new to this site, and I've read that the people over here are ruthless, overly-cynical, and pretentious, so I jumped to a conclusion that I shouldn't have.
Oh, that's sometimes true as well.
In which case, well-done for catching on to the joke so quickly. I'm sure you'll do well here.
If I recall, there were rumors that the Devil Rays were negotiating with BJ Upton for like a 10 year deal back when it was neck and neck between him and David Wright for who was the best prospect in the game.
Darrell Evans, Jack Clark, Rob Deer, Dave Kingman,
Mickey Tettleton all finished their careers with OPS+ >100 and Clark had the highest career BA at .267.
Of course, they are white so you cannot compare Chris Young to them.
Before looking at those players, I would have guessed they would have had to able to stay around .260 early in their careers, but not true. And while OPS+ is a bad stat to measure the value of guys whose value is tied up almost entirely in the SLG component, those four were able to stay productive with weak BAs.
Although it's a relatively rare combination, you can get away with this profile much better if you play a plus defensive position. It's hard to be hugely productive offensively with this profile unless you have prodigious power. But if you play CF or MI or C or even 3B, then this level of production is average or better. Some better comps for Young then might be Jose Valentin, Mark Bellhorn (the downside), Cameron (as already mentioned), Andruw Jones (as ZiPS notes), and maybe the upside is Jimmy Wynn. Bellhorn-Valentin-Cameron would be roughly slightly below to slightly above-average for a CF but would be clearly below-average at a corner. Jones' bat would make him an average corner, but a plus CF (and then great defense). Wynn's bat could have played anywhere (128 OPS+) but again was huge in CF in his prime.
So, as long as Young can play an average or better CF, he should be an average or better CF and there's no reason to think that won't be the case for the length of this contract. His chances of developing enough as a hitter to play elsewhere later in his career are probably pretty slim.
-- MWE
Yeah, if Young only ends up being Preston Wilson offensively, it'll be disappointing, but it won't hurt the Diamondbacks - 105-115 OPS+ a year with very good defense in center is worth a lot more than $6 million right now.
Contract Details:
28 Million guaranteed for 5 years through 2013, buying out 3 arb years and a year of free agency, with an option for a second year of free agency , 2014, which if exercised would make the deal worth 37.5 million
He is making 406,000 in 2008.
He will receive a 1 Mil signing bonus
2009- 1.75
2010- 3.25
2011- 5.00
2012- 7.00
2013- 8.50
2014-11.00 * Option or 1.5 Million buyout
So the deal looks even better than originally thought.
I'll take the over on the projected walks and OBP too.
0-6, with 10 LOB
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