BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Dodgers

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1. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2642663)

Presumably Hiro, like the character on Heroes.

Fukudome will have many Anglicized nicknames I suspect but I wouldn't make "Casey" the favorite.

2. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2642667)

Dan, I'm curious, if he is clearly worse then Dice-K, why is his projection better then how Dice-K performed? NL? Dice-K underperformed his projection? Something else? Thanks again.

3. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2642675)

Zips projected Dice-K to post a 3.44 in 2007.

4. The District Attorney Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2642676)

Dice-K projection

5. akrasian Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:03 PM (#2642989)

And maybe even the Dodgers won't screw over Chad Billingsley for the second straight spring!

Billingsley was the best Dodger starter in the second half - that should give him some security anyway.

It looks like the Dodgers will have Billingsley, Penny, Lowe, Kuroda, Schmidt (if healthy and recovered) and Loaiza competing for the six spots, with several kids waiting in the wings. Hopefully enough depth.

6. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2643116)

Billingsley was the best Dodger starter in the second half - that should give him some security anyway.

Billingsley also was 7-2, 3.16 in the 2nd half of 2006, but cruising for half a season in real games obviously isn't anywhere near as indicative as a couple of bad exhibition games.

7. akrasian Posted: December 13, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2643217)

His ERA was good in the second half of 2006 - but his k/bb ratio in 62.2 innings was a less than stellar 45/37.

In 2007 is k/bb ratio in the second half was 83/42 in 92.1 innings.

I agree that he should have been given the job out of spring training - but he looked far better in 2007 than he had in 2006.

8. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:03 AM (#2643416)

I would be shocked if Schmidt is ready to go by opening day. I'd be suprised if he came back by June 1. And few pitchers ever fully recover from a fully torn rotator cuff!

9. KJOK Posted: December 13, 2007 at 08:13 AM (#2643464)

For what it's worth, my MLE 'system' projects him at 3.27 ERA in Dodger Stadium.

The big difference seems to be HR's - Japanese pitchers generally get a tremendous HR prevention boost moving from NPB to MLB due to the larger ballparks outweighing having to face better HR hitters....nevertheless, I think my projection may be too optimistic...

10. npurcell Posted: December 15, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2646823)

any other Kuroda projections? CHONE???

11. shoewizard Posted: December 15, 2007 at 10:48 PM (#2646842)

ZIPS for Kei Igawa:

200 IP 4.77 ERA 225 H, 49 W, 135 K's 1.37 WHIP 33 HR

12. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: December 16, 2007 at 05:00 AM (#2647112)

Well the signing is now official. I hope ZiPS knows what it is talking about in this case. It's been overrating Japanese pitchers in recent years.

13. akrasian Posted: December 16, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2647335)

Even the pessimistic wouldn't be a disaster, although he would be way overpaid in that scenario. If he can put up a couple of seasons in the 105-110 ERA+ range, I think the Dodgers would be content.

14. npurcell Posted: December 17, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2648271)

question, does anyone have any GB rates on Kuroda? There have been articles stating that he is a big groundball pitcher. Would like some stats to back that up.

15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 18, 2007 at 12:37 AM (#2648388)

The Carp stadium is a bloody bandbox...

91.4m to LF and RF corners, 115.8m to the "deepest" part of Cf. High Wall though at 2.55m

16. AROM Posted: December 18, 2007 at 12:47 AM (#2648393)

any other Kuroda projections? CHONE???

Kuroda: 181 IP, 174H, 49bb 137k 21hr 3.78 ERA

17. Valentine Posted: December 18, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2648398)

Dice-K underperformed his projection?

Matsuzaka had a 3.59 ERA through mid-August... Looking at his full-season averages doesn't do him justice.

I wouldn't be shocked of Kuroda suffers in the final month or two as well.

18. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: August 24, 2009 at 04:23 AM (#3303081)

The jury is still out. The projections look pretty spot on so far, except for a liner to the head.

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