BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Dodgers

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Dodgers - Signed Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed CF Andruw Jones to a 2-year contract.

Jones wanted a lot more money, but as solid a career as he's had, he wasn't getting 7/130 after a miserable 2007 season. While $18 million per looks like a lot, the years make it a good risk. Now, I'm not sure if Jones (or Hunter and definitely not Pierre) is the right player for the Dodgers, but they're determined to buy the NL West, no matter what the team's strengths and weaknesses are. At least there's a slim chance that Juan Pierre will end up riding the pine, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I do think the odds are that Andruw Jones is a better player than Hunter.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Andruw Jones
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   515  88  128  25  2  34 110  66 121   3  .249  .344  .503     
2009?        470  80  114  22  0  29 102  62 112   2  .243  .341  .474
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   566 116  158  31  4  45 133  87 107   8  .279  .385  .587      
Pes. (15%)   419  59   93  16  0  22  68  45 109   1  .222  .303  .418 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps:  Rick Monday, Dwayne Murphy

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2007 at 11:59 PM | 32 comment(s)
Related News: LA Dodgers

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1. Brad is worth every Penny Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:43 AM (#2637687)

That projection looks a lot like the Andruw Jones we all know and love. ZiPS thinks 2007 was a fluke as do I.

2. AJM Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:50 AM (#2637699)

Top Comps: Rick Monday, Dwayne Murphy

I was confused by that, but then I looked them up. I didn't know they were that good.

3. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:17 AM (#2637726)

At least there's a slim chance that Juan Pierre will end up riding the pine, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I think the chance is more than slim. I've said it in the other thread, but Torre has no reason to feel loyalty to Pierre, and in New York he showed a willingness to play the kids over crappy vets, when the kids performed. Barring a trade of one either Kemp or Ethier for a starting pitcher, Pierre's consecutive game streak will end early this season.

4. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:27 AM (#2637733)

in New York he showed a willingness to play the kids

Wait...someone who doesn't repeat the ridiculous orthodoxy that Torre was allergic to young players? Hope your armor's on.

Now tell me: Did Torre destroy Scott Proctor's arm? If Proctor gets hurt some time in the next few seasons, will that be proof Torre ruined his career?

5. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:42 AM (#2637746)

Wait...someone who doesn't repeat the ridiculous orthodoxy that Torre was allergic to young players? Hope your armor's on.

Just this past season he made Melky the starting CF. Now, a hobbled Damon was still better than Pierre, and at least last season both Ethier and Kemp were better than Cabrera.

6. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2637754)

Just this past season he made Melky the starting CF.

I agree with you, if that wasn't clear. Torre installed numerous unproven players into his lineup in NY.

7. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 03:05 AM (#2637757)

I knew you were agreeing with me. I was just providing preemptive armor against the others you warned me about . . .

8. SouthSideRyan(hates Casey McGehee) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2637768)

Torre will feel loyalty to Pierre once he gets to know him. He's too darn cuddly to bench.

9. npurcell Posted: December 07, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2637773)

566AB 45hr .279/.385/.587

Dodgers probably go to the playoffs if that happens.

Colleti quote...

"We are not of the mind to give up three or four prospects for one player, I'll tell you that," Colletti said. To move Kemp, Colletti added, "I'd have to have a conversation where my jaw drops. It's got to be something you can't say no to. I haven't heard anything like that. In fact, teams have stopped asking."

10. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:22 AM (#2637788)

I haven't heard anything like that. In fact, teams have stopped asking.

Well, Ned, if you keep telling everyone they need to take Pierre along with Kemp in a trade, of course they'll stop asking.

11. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:36 AM (#2637794)

from the 2007 season:

R/G
Andruw Jones 4.2
Juan Pierre 4.4

Now THAT'S a thing of beauty.

12. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:44 AM (#2637802)

Also read the Dodgers are looking at acquiring Rolen. My guess is that moves Nomar to LF, and Pierre to RF.

13. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:45 AM (#2637803)

So where do Kemp and Ethier wind up?

14. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:50 AM (#2637808)

So where do Kemp and Ethier wind up?

Soylent green?

15. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:52 AM (#2637810)

Knowing Colletti, it just might happen...

16. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:29 AM (#2637817)

Nobody -- as in not even Dave Littlefield on his worst day -- would be batshit crazy enough to put Pierre in RF. The CF would have to run over as a second relay man.

17. Mike Green Posted: December 07, 2007 at 11:35 AM (#2637959)

Walt's right. Pierre's the left-fielder now. Think Scott Podsednik, 2005, Dodger fans...

18. SouthSideRyan(hates Casey McGehee) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 11:54 AM (#2637975)

Speaking of Littlefield, the Cubs are thinking about bringing him into the fold. Their incompetence knows no bounds. Or maybe it does, so they're bringing in Littlefield to help stretch that boundary.

19. snapper Posted: December 07, 2007 at 12:00 PM (#2637985)

So where do Kemp and Ethier wind up?

Minnesota? Baltimore? Oakland?

Would Ned like Matsui for Loney ;-)

20. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 12:15 PM (#2638008)

Walt, I believe the guy who wrote post 12 is a Dbacks fan.

21. BeanoCook Posted: December 07, 2007 at 12:16 PM (#2638010)

Kemp will end up in Milwaukee. Hall moves to 3b, Braun to LF. Watch.

22. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 07, 2007 at 12:40 PM (#2638048)

zero chance Kemp ends up in Milwaukee.

23. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 12:50 PM (#2638061)

Kemp will end up in Milwaukee. Hall moves to 3b, Braun to LF. Watch.

People keep predicting that Colletti will trade a kid who's played well in the majors. It has yet to happen, and he's been on the job for two years now.

24. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2638080)

Sorry D-Back fans, but it looks like Pierre to Chicago is gaining momentum.

Acquiring Jones also allows the Dodgers to entertain offers for speedy center fielder Juan Pierre, the former Cub whom Guillen adores from their days together with the Marlins. The Sox are still in need of a legit leadoff hitter, and Pierre would team well at the top of the Sox’ lineup with newly acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera — Williams’ lone bright spot this offseason — in the No. 2 spot. Say what you will about Pierre, but he would be an improvement over current leadoff favorite Jerry Owens.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/deluca/685060,deluca120607.article

25. Brad is worth every Penny Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:19 PM (#2638082)

Walt's right. Pierre's the left-fielder now. Think Scott Podsednik, 2005, Dodger fans...

Didn't that team win the World Series?

26. Judges 20:16 (the Lord's bullpen) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 01:36 PM (#2638103)

Didn't that team win the World Series?

Yes, behind All-Star Scott Podsednik and his Game 2 home run!

27. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2638198)

Walt's right. Pierre's the left-fielder now. Think Scott Podsednik, 2005, Dodger fans...

One more reason to jeer the Andruw signing.

28. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: December 07, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2638218)

I asked this question in the signing thread, and got no response. So will try again.

How many CFs have played 10+ seasons, averaging over 155 games per year? And what is their aging pattern?

29. snapper Posted: December 07, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2638223)

How many CFs have played 10+ seasons, averaging over 155 games per year? And what is their aging pattern?

Is that rhetorical? If you want to know go to B-Ref PI and do a search. You have to pay, but it's well worth it to support B-Ref.

30. GEB4000 Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2638347)

Jones is a strange player. He's got a good shot at the HOF, but he'll get in for his defense because he's not a great hitter. If Dave Kingman were a gold glove centerfielder, he would be Andruw Jones.

31. Judges 20:16 (the Lord's bullpen) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2638365)

He's got a good shot at the HOF, but he'll get in for his defense because he's not a great hitter. If Dave Kingman were a gold glove centerfielder, he would be Andruw Jones.

Andruw also started really young (3 years young than Kingman) and he'll generate some great counting stats if he ages reasonably well. He's got 1683 hits and 368 HRs (and 10 GGs) and he's turning 31 at the beginning of next year. That's pretty incredible for someone who's never really been one of the best hitters in the league. Give him 550 HRs and 2600 hits and he makes the Hall easily.

32. Chuck Van Den Corput Posted: December 09, 2007 at 09:33 AM (#2639343)

Give him 550 HRs and 2600 hits and he makes the Hall easily.

And it'd still be a disappointing career based on how he looked as a 21-year old (which I don't say sarcastically). He was supposed to be Willie Mays, damn it.

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Dodgers - Signed Jones

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