Dodger Stadium won't be a pitcher's park for long. They're lessening the amount of foul territory and removing centerfield seats for next season. Batters will see the ball better and foul out less. Your projections are probably low.

A No-Prize for the first Primate who can come up with a good reason for Lowe getting more money than half the guys who signed for seven or eight million per season...

Rob, I suspect your No-Prize money is secure. I like Lowe, but holy criminy -- it's not just the $9 mil, it's the 4 years. What was that all about?

Less foul territory won't effect Lowe that much, given his extreme groundball nature.

Dan, I know the projection system isn't necessarily what "you" would believe, but I bet you $5 Lowe's ERA is, at the very least, over 4.00 next year.

I'm stunned Lowe can get that much money.

Rob,
does:
"McCourt wants to be the next Steinbrenner" count?

Year-to-year park factors are goofy enough without having to predict exactly what new park factors will be!

A No-Prize for the first Primate who can come up with a good reason for Lowe getting more money than half the guys who signed for seven or eight million per season...

Because he is a proven winner, count the ring.

I'll take that bet, I think.

Derek Lowe was bad in 2004, but he is only 32, probably doesn't have any horrible arm injury that he's hiding, and has 1090 career innings of 3.88 ERA, almost entirely at at Fenway and other parks with designated hitters.

Dodger Stadium is currently a pitchers' park because it suppresses the stuff that Lowe gives up.
Dumb question, but controlling for defense, has Dodger Stadium been that much better for groundball pitchers?

it's the 4 years

He's always been healthy.

But you're right--the total package is astounding. Who else was in the bidding?

To me, what makes this signing really bizarre is that the Dodgers are supposed to get bargains on guys like Lowe. His unadjusted statistics from last year are the ugliest of any significant free agent starter signing this offseason. Aren't the teams that overpay for starters the same ones most likely to be put off by, say, a bad ERA? Who else was offering 3 years, 27 million that forced the Dodgers to bump their offer up by a year?

Rob, I could certainly make an argument that Lowe will perform "better" than Jaret Wright or Eric Milton (or even Kris Benson) next season, all of whom are in the pay range you suggest. But I assumed that only a few teams would figure that out, limiting the market for Lowe and hence limiting the potential contract he could get.

Guess I was wrong.

Derek Lowe was bad in 2004, but he is only 32, probably doesn't have any horrible arm injury that he's hiding, and has 1090 career innings of 3.88 ERA, almost entirely at at Fenway and other parks with designated hitters.

Yeah, but he wasn't very good in '03, either. I supposed I'm biased negatively from having to watch him lately, but I just can't see him going any lower than 4.00, even in Dodger Stadium.

One more fun Lowe stat: Despite his 5.42 ERA, he also managed to give up 28 unearned runs.

A No-Prize for the first Primate who can come up with a good reason for Lowe getting more money than half the guys who signed for seven or eight million per season

Good infield defense?

Erm.. probably not

Lowe has postseason moxie and he's the left starter standing on Free Agent Island. Hence: overpaid. The appearance of scarcity leads to demand and higher salary. How DePo fell prey to this is a mystery, though, if this is true (which I doubt).

If Lowe matches or eats that projection ... I'll do something.

His DIPS ERA from the past three years were 4.38, 4.38, 3.68. So consistent - not great, but consistent.

He gives up few homeruns, which is the worst aspect of Dodger Stadium in terms of offense.

He will have an excellent defense behind him.

His one big problem with extra base hits has been doubles, and even with the changes Dodger Stadium will still kill doubles.

Because he's such an extreme ground ball pitcher, I'd expect the reduction of foul ground to affect him significantly less than an average pitcher.

Basically, he's about as perfect a pitcher for Dodger Stadium as you can find. He's been healthy, he's been consistent. 4 years/$36 million is a lot, but I would expect DePodesta to think that there is significantly less risk with Lowe than for pretty much any other pitcher that was available this offseason.

One more fun Lowe stat: Despite his 5.42 ERA, he also managed to give up 28 unearned runs.

Which gives him the most total runs allowed in all of baseball. Maybe Google Boy does have virus in his computer. Man I feel dirty saying that.

Basically, he's about as perfect a pitcher for Dodger Stadium as you can find.

In that case, Dodger Stadium is perfect for any pitcher. It would have been perfect for Milton b/c so many of his homers would have been turned into outs.

It's arguable that Lowe's talents are wasted at Dodger Stadium. It's not like he's going to give up a lot of homers anywhere.

It would have been perfect for Milton b/c so many of his homers would have been turned into outs.

Dodger Stadium is average for homeruns. Your argument doesn't seem to make sense.

And in terms of Lowe - it's not just the homeruns. It's the doubles - he'll be going from the most extreme park for doubles to one of the parks hardest to hit doubles in. The concerns of the reduced foul ground increasing batting average won't matter so much for Lowe, because he gives up fewer foul popups, afaict. And yes, the infield defense of the Dodgers should be above average - quite possibly well above average - yet again.

In that case, Dodger Stadium is perfect for any pitcher. It would have been perfect for Milton b/c so many of his homers would have been turned into outs.

Chavez Ravine is pretty neutral on HR, isn't it?

And in terms of Lowe - it's not just the homeruns. It's the doubles - he'll be going from the most extreme park for doubles to one of the parks hardest to hit doubles in.

Isn't the park tough on flyball would-be-doubles that go into the gaps?

Ok, so many of Milton's fly balls would have turned into foul outs or fly outs. I just don't see how being an extreme ground ball pitcher makes you perfect for a stadium that is neutral in homers. Maybe I use "perfect" more sparingly.

It's the doubles - he'll be going from the most extreme park for doubles to one of the parks hardest to hit doubles in.

Are these numbers actually consistent from year to year? Seems like there are many more ways to get a double than a homer - so much so that the "extremes" shouldn't be all that extreme.

And yes, the infield defense of the Dodgers should be above average - quite possibly well above average - yet again.

What are the UZR's on the new Dodger infield? Seems that losing Beltre and replacing him with someone who hasn't played 3B in three years (kent or valentin) is going to hurt, and losing Cora can't help. Should still be good, of course, with Izturis getting more grounders than the rest.

I like Lowe and I like the Dodgers, I just can't believe he got $9M for 4 years. I wonder who else was after him. Rangers? O's? Who knows?

Dodger Stadium has always killed doubles and triples - I've always figured that it's because the outfields really aren't that deep, they're as regular as you can get, and balls down the line that might get lost in foul ground get funneled back towards the outfielder, thanks to the foul area disappearing fairly rapidly but without any sharp angles.

I think the evidence is overwhelming at this point that Depo vaulues the homerun far more than any other stat. At least he has a consistent philosophy, and we'll have a fun time seeing how it works out.

For run prevention, his strategy is to put good defenders at every position and get pitchers who don't give up homers and trust the defense and Senior Chavez to handle the rest.

For offense, you have a fair amount of OBP, but you also have your Jose Valentin who has no offensive value other than homers (.287 OBP last year), and Kent who is good all around but not really a walk machine. The Dodgers have potential 30 homerun hitters at every position except for shortstop and catcher.

Whether you approve of some of these moves or not, you have to admit that this is going to be a very informative season.

Oh, and I want to reiterate my certainty that Ishii will never throw another pitch for the Dodgers.

Is there a Boras factor? I know he's had some guys over the past couple of years that he's strung out and they ended up getting moderately screwed, but it would be interesting to know if his guys actually tend to end up with more than comparable free agents with other agents.

Are these numbers actually consistent from year to year? Seems like there are many more ways to get a double than a homer - so much so that the "extremes" shouldn't be all that extreme.


yes, I believe so. It has to do with the geometry of the park. There are no nook and crannys for the ball to bounce around it, and all the balls are funneled to the fielders. Any outfield of werth, drew, and bradley should be very good (very fast). Valentin should be good at 3rd after consistently posting great UZR numbers at short and kent led secondbasemen in UZR last season, IIRC.

yes, I believe so. It has to do with the geometry of the park. There are no nook and crannys for the ball to bounce around it, and all the balls are funneled to the fielders.

Interesting. Thanks for the 411.

I'm not ready to award the No-Prize yet, though a pretty good case for Lowe could probably be cobbled together from a variety of the above posts. Akrasian (#17) makes a solid point in his review of Lowe's DIPS ERA, and if correct is a real marker in DePo's favor.

Somebody asked about home runs . . . According to the latest Bill James Handbook, over the last three seasons Dodger Stadium has been the sixth-easiest home run park in the National League. I don't think those ratings are schedule-adjusted, though. Anybody do that?

I guess Lowe was smart to turn down the 3 year $27 mil extension the Red Sox offered after all. I just wonder what he would get if he'd actually had a decent regular season.

Looks like there's a good chance lots of Red Sox fans, talk radio callers, newspaper guys, etc. are going to be mad about the pitching changes.

With Pedro and Lowe switching leagues and going into hitters' parks, they could end up with a pair of very nice records.

I've always figured that it's because the outfields really aren't that deep, they're as regular as you can get, and balls down the line that might get lost in foul ground get funneled back towards the outfielder, thanks to the foul area disappearing fairly rapidly but without any sharp angles.

Which should mean they pinch the gaps. Wouldn't a heckuva lot of Lowe's doubles be groundballs down the lines? That wouldn't be affected by the park.

I think pitching in the NL, specifically the NL West will make a whole new beast out of Lowe.

One other thing - I hope he does very well in LA. He had his ups and downs in Boston, but really more good than bad and he had a great finish. His Game 7 start against the Yankees on 2 days rest won't be forgotten.

Except that ground balls down the line in most parks have a chance of taking weird bounces, of hitting the wall weird and bouncing the wrong way - Boston has that problem in spades, iirc. LA doesn't.

His one big problem with extra base hits has been doubles, and even with the changes Dodger Stadium will still kill doubles.

In the Clutch Hits thread, Philly makes a nice case that it's the opposite, that Lowe doesn't give up doubles. Not a surprise, considering the extreme GB rates.

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but my understanding was that Dodger Stadium is a dream for K/flyball pitchers, which Lowe most definitely is not.

Rob, good to "see" you.

I'd say the answer is Scott Boras. He can't always put lipstick on a pig, but he fools a GM or two every winter.

well,
lowe's K/BB has declined in each of the last four seasons. i think that is a major cause for concern. however, his gb/fb ratio has been amazing. though his fb's had a spike last year, i doesn't look like any sign of a trend. as pointed out, the infield should be very good. i don't know though. this is a guy who has gone from a really good pitcher to a pretty mediocre one in the past couple of years. while dodger stadium will certainly help lowe, i doubt it makes this deal look good. all i have to say is: boras is a genius.

I love how Neyer just snuck in here with a quick post without drawing much attention to himself, and then just tip-toed on out. If you scanned through the posts a little fast you wouldn't even realize it was him.

Pretty smooth, ay?

all i have to say is: boras is a genius.

The culmination of which will occur today.

First time anybody's ever accused me of successful sneakery...

A No-Prize for the first Primate who can come up with a good reason for Lowe getting more money than half the guys who signed for seven or eight million per season...


Well, if we can trust ZiPS, Lowe projects to be better than Perez (if only with respect to HRs and ERA), so perhaps in a two-pitcher universe, it makes sense to give Lowe 1m more per year than Perez.

With the age difference, though, the extra money might not make sense and the extra year makes no sense at all.

Another reason? Maybe DePo thinks that Lowe should have been good all along, and that Boston's defense and the building pressure was too much for him. Give him good defense and a better pitcher's park and maybe you see the Lowe you *should* have seen all along - confident, above-average/solid, and a "gamer." This sounds more like standard GM-type reasoning than DePo reasoning though, so who knows.

I would have liked to see Lowe succeed, but now he is a damn Dodger. You suck Lowe.

Here's my "good" reason: the world is a strange place and GMs make strange decisions. As far as I can tell, there is no good justification for giving Derek Lowe $9M or the 4th year.

That the Red Sox landed Wade Miller, even with the injury question mark, to replace Lowe was brilliance. Miller is the better pitcher and they'll save more than few bucks.

I disagree that the key to explaining this signing (or at least to win Rob's prize) will be in showing that Lowe is better than he appears to be. That doesn't seem too hard. I would think that infield defense is much more important than park effects for a pitcher like Derek Lowe (with the exception of Wrigley's long infield grass, if that counts as a park effect). Anyway, the quality of the Dodger defense plus Chavez Ravine will probably equal a pretty good season for Lowe, because he doesn't walk too many guys yet. I certainly can understand why Depodesta would want him.

However, the question I asked earlier (and that has since been reiterated) is: why such a high number? Even if we are able to construct an argument as to why Lowe, in a perfect world, merits 36 million dollars, that should be at best a secondary goal. The first question is: who bid up his value? I can't imagine Texas going anywhere near these numbers given the track record of their last significant free agent pitcher signing, and hadn't heard a word about the Orioles pursuing Mr. Lowe either. So, unless Lowe was prepared to sit out the season until he got a contract this size, this deal makes no sense.

why such a high number?

Mystique and aura that surround Boras.

Seriously, were there even any other teams rumored to merely offer a contract?

I don't know to what extent this bares (bears?) upon the discussion, but Shandler's Expected ERA's for the last couple of seasons were 3.69 and 3.87, which *are* the marks of a $9 million pitcher. I know the 2004 discrepancy is partly due to Lowe's high hit rate (33%), but there's a big difference in 2003, too. Still waiting to award that No-Prize (and a No-No-Prize to first Primate who tells everybody what a No-Prize is, and who's famous for awarding them).

Well, I guess Boras has that reputation for a reason. I guess you could say he played the Dodgers a little, similar to what alot of folks said he did to the Rangers with A-Rod.

No wonder he represents alot of players. Hmmm...

However, the question I asked earlier (and that has since been reiterated) is: why such a high number? Even if we are able to construct an argument as to why Lowe, in a perfect world, merits 36 million dollars, that should be at best a secondary goal. The first question is: who bid up his value? I can't imagine Texas going anywhere near these numbers given the track record of their last significant free agent pitcher signing, and hadn't heard a word about the Orioles pursuing Mr. Lowe either. So, unless Lowe was prepared to sit out the season until he got a contract this size, this deal makes no sense.


That is the Scott Boras magic. His SBP+ (Single Bid Power) (+ adjusted for GM stupidity) is like 300. Astounding.

I have a similar reaction to this as I do the Mets trading Kazmir.

I mean, sure, Lowe/Zambrano has a ton of potential given what the Dodger defense/Rick Peterman can offer, but was it really nessecary to give up $36M/Scott Kazmir to find out if they can reach that potential? Who exactly was offering anywhere near this amount for Lowe/Zambrano?

It could work out, but this is a steep price to pay to have the chance to find out.

Also, Depo is betting a hell of a lot on defensive stats here. Both Valentin and Kent are considered to be below average defensive players generally, while the stats consider them two of the best at their positions. I love UZR, I really do, but there's a nontrivial chance that UZR is off on both these guys when the numbers differ so very much from the scouting. If I had to guess, I'd say UZR is a whole lot closer to the truth. But would I pay $36M to find out? Probably not.

Rob, does it have something to do with Marvel Comicbooks??

Still waiting to award that No-Prize (and a No-No-Prize to first Primate who tells everybody what a No-Prize is, and who's famous for awarding them).


IIRC, it was Stan Lee, the Marvel Comics mastermind. In his intros in the comic books, especially The Amazing Spiderman, I believe he mentioned them.

I could be way off base here though...

bibigon, I think your instincts are exactly right. This could still turn out as a good signing, and I haven't really seen anyone say otherwise yet. Of course, we'll never learn what the Devil Rays *really* would have taken for Zambrano, or what the other offers were on Lowe, which makes all this pondering moot.

Close enough, LSFAO (NGF). It was Stan Lee in Marvel Comics, and on the letters page he would award No-Prizes to people who came up with reasonable explanations for seeming contradictions in Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, etc. I mean, aside from the inherent contradictions associated with every superhero.

Of course, we'll never learn what the Devil Rays *really* would have taken for Zambrano, or what the other offers were on Lowe, which makes all this pondering moot.

We won't be able to construct a mathematical model to determine why these things happened, but that doesn't make the pondering "moot."

It may be in the psychological or philosophical realm, and outside the reach of sabermetrics, but the pondering helps us understand the minds of the GMs and why these things happen, even if they are not mathematically "provable." We don't necessarily have to do the pondering, but if I were a GM or an agent, I sure would be pondering the subject.

Thanks Rob... I would have preferred your Frank White BBref page, but a No-No-Prize from Rob is prestigious enough in my book.

Come to think of it, I would like Steve Treder's Dick Dietz BBref page more, but my lazy ass should just get my own. If only Will Clark were available - a damn D-Back fan has it! A D-Back fan! Levski, are you behind this?

DePo is not using UZR. He has his own system, presumably the one he was using with the A's. He may have as much confidence in that as we have in OBP, or maybe more.

Lowe's ZiPs are amazing. What the heck?

Seriously, were there even any other teams rumored to merely offer a contract?

I believe the Tigers were going after Lowe, or at least thats what I read awhile back.

Also keep in mind that Frank McCourt might be a little more responsible for this one than Depo. He was a huge Red Sox fan before buying the Dodgers, so he might have been willing to overpay for Lowe. (Not justifying the signing, just throwing this out there)

Lowe's never maintained a K/9 ratio around 5.9 and even though his 2004 ratio was closer to 2002 than 2003, I just don't see it happening.

I'd like to see someone come up with one of those explanations for Star Trek: Generations. I'm certainly no trekkie, but Picard's choice of time frame to return to from that mystical ribbon doohickey was the worst plot hole in the history of the world.

DePo is not using UZR. He has his own system, presumably the one he was using with the A's. He may have as much confidence in that as we have in OBP, or maybe more.

Yes, he's using his system. However, from what we know about his system, it seems pretty likely that his system is very similar to UZR. There's more than one way to skin a cat, but in the end, you get pretty much the same result.

I think that's what we're seeing here. Gammons occasionally reports on the internal defensive numbers that the Red Sox and A's are deploying, and they basically always match what UZR is giving.

They probably also have their own offensive numbers, I doubt they go to Prospectus and look up EQAs for players, but it'd be pretty shocking if their offensive numbers differed from what we use in any significant ways.

That is in fact the single biggest sign to me that defensive stats are getting pretty good, that all the different "high level" stats, such as UZR, as well as what the Red Sox, Dodgers and A's have all seem to reach the same conclusions. Yes, they could all be wrong, but then they'd have to independently be making the same mistakes, which while very possible, probably isn't likely.

That said, Depo has similar faith in his defensive measures as he does in OBP, then yes, that's betting a hell of a lot on his defensive numbers. A hell of a lot.

I'd like to see someone come up with one of those explanations for Star Trek: Generations. I'm certainly no trekkie, but Picard's choice of time frame to return to from that mystical ribbon doohickey was the worst plot hole in the history of the world.

He'd just gotten beaten up by Soran, lost his ship, lost a planet full of people, not to mention that at his age, he probably has mental lapses anyways. He wasn't thinking clearly, and he made a mistake.

Best I can do.

bibigon, I think your instincts are exactly right. This could still turn out as a good signing, and I haven't really seen anyone say otherwise yet.

Well, I think otherwise. I believe this can't turn out to be a good signing, the best case looks like "not a disaster".

Why? A four-year massive contract to a low-K pitcher in his thirties coming off two very average seasons... I wouldn't bet on it being a good deal.

Sure, the park and the defense will make him look better. But they would make the cheap guys look better too.

What are his groundball tendencies worth in dollars? Whatever it is, I'd say it is smarter to pay a premium for strikeouts. And it certainly isn't in the tens of millions.

Lowes healthiness? Pitchers are generally healthy until injured. It hasn't happened to Lowe yet, great, but does it have ANY predictive value at all for his future health?

Terrible signing.

NSCEGF: what I meant was that it's a moot point arguing whether the number had to be 4/36. I will from now on basically assume that depodesta did have someone bidding against him, and try to determine whether Lowe will add at least 18 wins above replacement over the life of his contract.

The price you have to pay for a player and the price you *should* pay for a player are completely separate things. We have to take DePo's word that he had to pay 36 for Lowe. I doubt that he did, but what the hell do I know.

Sure, the park and the defense will make him look better. But they would make the cheap guys look better too.

This is a great point. Of course, parks and defenses can bring more benefit to some pitchers than others, but on the whole you're right. EVERYONE has a good ERA in Dodgers' stadium; therefore, it's not enough for Lowe to string together a couple 3.50 ERA seasons and point to them as evidence of a good contract.

Having said that, he seems like a very good fit with this defense, if not particularly this park. Their infield defense should be great if we believe UZR, and I will, because Depodesta apparently does and he's a lot smarter than me.

I wonder if the Cardinals tried to get Lowe. Their defense would probably do wonders for him too.

bibigon, I think your instincts are exactly right. This could still turn out as a good signing, and I haven't really seen anyone say otherwise yet.

You kidding me? I lambasted this signing the instant I saw it. Lowe sucks.

EVERYONE has a good ERA in Dodgers' stadium;

coughNomocough

A No-Prize for the first Primate who can come up with a good reason for Lowe getting more money than half the guys who signed for seven or eight million per season...

Because half of the contract Lowe has promised to donate for tsunami relief?

Otherwise, I can't figure it out either.

I think pitching in the NL, specifically the NL West will make a whole new beast out of Lowe.

Derek Lowe, may I introduce you to Barry Lamar Bonds, a lefthanded hitter?

I'll chime in. Perez is a veru underrated pitcher for some reason. His signing was a good one for a pitcher, but is still too much money to pay as compared to a position player.

The Lowe signing is curious. I pretty much have him as a little better than a league average pitcher. His numbers have changed a lot since he was converted into a full time starter. Basically his K rate, and therefore his overall value, has gone down quite a bit, which is exactly what we expect when going from reliever to starter. At first glance this looks like a horrendous signing. One of the worst of the off-season by any team.

I have some confidence in Depo that he knows what he is doing (although this one stretches the envelope) and that there is something about Lowe and the Bums that makes this signing a good one. I would only say that for an extreme-type pitcher, and Lowe is that (his G/F rate). I have not done enough research on parks and pitching styles to have much of an opinion one way or another. What I have read in this thread is plausible, but speculative. The difference between his apparent worth and 9 mil a year for 4 years is so great that I would be shocked if he were worth that much, but you never know. Just as importantly, the chance of a pitcher getting injured or for some other (and often unknown) reason losing his effectiveness is so great as compared to a position player, that a 4 year contract is almost never wise unless you are vastly underpaying for present projected performance...

I think there's a non-zero chance that this turns out to be some sort of hoax.

The best argument I can think of is "look at '03 Kevin Brown" for the difference that LA's defense and park can potentially make for a groundball pitcher. Still, I don't understand the combination of money and years in this contract at all.

Brown was good in '04, which is lost amid the New York teeth-gnashing about him. We'll be hearing the same thing next winter about Randy Johnson, I'd guess.

I do not see how this signing could be a good one, even if Lowe outperforms his projections.

Its too much money and too many years for a guy heading in the wrong direction.

Kevin Brown's fastball was 5 mph slower in the AL (2004) than the NL (2003). That is the reason he had a bad year, it had little to do with switching leagues.

I think it's pretty obvious that DePo has a computer simulation that predicts an ERA under 3.00 if he uses 5 infielders behind Lowe.

Ok, maybe not but perhaps he thinks that he can use Lowe's extreme GB nature to his advantage by putting excellent fielders at 1st and 2nd. Maybe Kent, Iztuirs, Valentin and A. Perez around the infield? Or maybe he doesn't know for sure and this is an expensive experiment. Maybe the NSF came through with a 4-year grant.

There's a kid in Michigan. That future Derek Lowe. That kid today wants to be a Dodger. What this means to them 15 years from now, 10 years. That's the thinking, that's the logic. That's the plan.

Since consummating this deal, DePodesta has received calls from other Michiganians saying "I ... want ... to ... be ... a ... Dodger"

Hmmm, I did some quick research. I compiled 2 groups of pitchers from all pitchers who pitched in 2001 to 2004. High FB and high GB. I arbitrarily took the 135 highest and lowest ground ball pitchers, or about 13% off each end (1000 pitchers total). A pitcher's G/F ratio was his sample G/F ratio for 01-04 regressed towards league average (around 1.20), so the groups were presumably based on each pitcher's approx. "true" G/F ratio.

I then looked at only LA pitchers for those years. I compared their ERC's (component ERA's) at home and on the road. I did thos for both groups, the FB and the GB pitchers. The results were amazing:

For gound ball pitchers, their composite NERC (weighted by the lesser of the 2 TBF's) on the road was 3.78 and at home their composite ERC was 2.67, for a ratio of .71. The .71 corresponds to normal home field advantage plus park effects. Total PA's were around 3600 at home and 3600 on the road.

For fly ball pitchers, their composite ERC on the road was 3.97, but at home, it was only 3.82 for a ratio of .96. Total PA's at home and on the road were around 2000 each.

That is an amazing difference! A few things I did not like in the methodology (as I said, it was quick):

1) small samples
2) using in-sample testing (I should calculate the G/F ratios in separate years as the testing).
3) using only Dodger pitchers. Should also use visiting pitchers.
4) I did this quickly and there could be programming errors.

wow. pretty interesting.

Dodgers staff:

Lowe - GB
Penny - average
Perez - GB
Weaver - average

Ishii - extreme FB pitcher

also, what could have been:

Hudson - extreme GB

btw, I should have said "extreme GB" for Lowe.

Would Odalis Perez have made the GB 13% in the study?

anyway, given the pitchers that DePodesta has signed or attempted to trade for (Hudson, Perez and Lowe) do you think he has done a study similar to MGL's and has some faith in the results? Or is this just coincidence?

btw, and not to just assume that the reverse is true for hitters but, Jose Valentin had a higher FB to GB rate than any other player in the AL last year. Shawn Green, on the other hand, is a GB hitter (not that DePo wouldn't want to ditch him either way). Jeff Kent? You guess it, he hits FB's.

Beltre and Drew look to have similar pretty average GB/FB ratios.

Also Koplove is an extreme groundball guy. The Dodgers were going to take him in the Johnson trade.

It's wonder that Depo doesn't make a play for Webb while he's working with AZ. He was the biggest groudball pitcher by leaps and bounds in 2004.

Brazoban is flyball guy. They were ready to give him up. This is more than a coincidence.

Dessens is on the groundball side.

So, I guess this is your answer Rob. Lowe got more money than the other guys because the Dodgers coveted his unique attributes. He has an established history as the most extreme groundball pitcher in the majors (Webb lacking the track record to make the claim), and that's what the team was shopping for. As for whether that's a good reason, I'll wait for more input by MGL on that, if he chooses to invest the time in it. His intitial findings seem to indicate that it might just be.

Of course, it would have been nice to get him at a bargain rate.

I'll say one thing about DePodesta, he certainly is gutsy. Of course, if you are a little too gutsy you're foolhardy. DePo strikes me as a little foolhardy.

Low-risk, high-reward contracts are my favorite kind of contracts. High-risk, high-reward are not high on my list.

I just can't believe anyone gave Lowe 4-years $36 million. That's a nutty contract for a reportedly very nutty pitcher.

I think it's possible that there are attributes to Lowe that will have added value in LA.

It's also possible that McCourt is a Red Sox fan who's willing to part with some extra cash to get an ex-Red Sox.

I think it's most likely that DePo expected Javier Vazquez to be his second pitching acquisition, and he did not put together a good backup plan in case the Diamondbacks deal didn't work. Suddenly, he has money to spend and a hole in his rotation, and the only moderately good pitcher out there has an agent who recognizes exactly the situation in which the Dodgers are stuck.

Imperabo -

Have you checked the intelligence of the pitchers signed or released by DePodesta?

Lowe is not only an extreme pitcher in his GB/FB rate, but he is dumb, even for a baseball player.

he is dumb, even for a baseball player.

I personally have no idea about his level of intelligence, but I'm curious what makes you say this.

All this talk about extreme GB pitchers gives me nightmares that one of the pitchers going to LA for Green will be named Brandon Webb. Might as well free the kid (as Robert S says); Webb is an amazing young pitcher, might as well send him to a team that will give him a chance to show how good he really is.

[Oh, if Webb does get traded to LA, I will hunt you down, Joe Jr., and it won't be to ask you to play in your father's "The Matching Game".]

Rob, let me try.

I'm going to give you a traditional scouting report since any way you parse his numbers, Lowe comes off as brutally bad (forget DiPS. DiPS just doesn't apply to Lowe since even Whistler's mother could put the ball in play off Lowe.).

Lowe gets murdered by bleeders. Lowe's decline can be pinpointed to one thing: loss of velocity. He still has pretty good command of both his fastball and sinker but can't throw swinging strikes any more. He got murdered last year with long sequences of bleeders, flairs, dying quails, passed balls and walks. Having a limping Nomar as his shortstop didn't help matters.

In the playoffs, having been bounced from the rotation, indesperation he started throwing his curveball regularly and started to completely flummox the hitters. His curve looks exactly like his sinker coming in, with the same rotation and velocity. His curve has a 3 to 9 break on rather than a 12 to 6 break, like most good curveballs. It doesn't have much velocity but it sweeps across the plate horizontally when the hitter is expecting it to break downward, like a sinker or normal curveball should.

He made some good hitters look foolish with it in the playoffs and maybe the Dodgers picked up on that. He's always been rubber-armed so the 4 year isn't a problem if the other stuff turns out to be true.

One thing the Dodgers need to do: cut the infield grass short so when the hitters pound the ball into the ground, it can roll out to the infielders quickly enough to get groundouts.

OK, Rob?

Since consummating this deal, DePodesta has received calls from other Michiganians saying "I ... want ... to ... be ... a ... Dodger"

Michiganders, actually.

even if all this is true, even if GB pitchers do great in LA, and the Dodgers have a brilliant infield, and Fenway ripped Lowe to shreds, I still think this contract proposal was accompinied by a vial of crack rocks. If you grossly overpay a guy, and he turns out to be worth the money, you still grossly overpaid, even if he was like plan D after RJ and Vasquez and Hudson.

BTW, the flyball/groundball stuff could be coincidence. If LA gets (or tries to get) Webb, that won't be coincidence.

If you grossly overpay a guy, and he turns out to be worth the money, you still grossly overpaid

If the players is worth his contrac, no matter how large, by definition isn't he paid as he should be?

No, SWCM, because you could have paid him less ex ante for the output, and used the rest of the money for something else.

And if the player wouldn't accept less...?

If the players is worth his contrac, no matter how large, by definition isn't he paid as he should be?

There is a school of thought here that says no, and that we can perfectly evaluate a signing/trade the moment it happens. A lot of these folks chimed in on the recent Millwood/Estrada thread. I have some problems with this line of reasoning.

1. It assumes that all information that can be used to evaluate a signing is public. This is absurd. I do not believe it's a stretch of credibility to suggest that teams with $100m budgets for player contracts have invested significantly in collecting proprietary data.

2. It assumes that we already possess the best projection tools that exist to go along with the public information we have. Again, I don't believe this either. Despite the value in PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel the Singing Monkey, etc., I have no trouble believing the Dodgers have a special projection model that indicates something like MGL said: that Lowe will get a HUGE homefield ERA advantage, an advantage unique to him (or another extreme groundballer). Just because it's not on primer yet doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

3. It presupposes that the offer of 4/36 is much higher than any other offer Lowe got. This is the premise I'm most inclined to believe, and I'll reference what I've said above. I doubt we'll know either way, though.

Unless in a few years it comes out (like with the A-Rod deal) that the 2nd-highest offer on the table for Lowe was 3/15, the ONLY way we should evaluate this signing is by Lowe's performance. If he does poorly, than yes this is a terrible signing. I'm very surprised by the size of this contract. However, I'm not willing to condemn DePodesta yet. He's a lot smarter than me, and probably a lot smarter than most of the other posters on this thread. Remember, he who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass.

Indians just signed Millwood to a one year, $7 million deal, where $4 million of it is contingent on him being healthy.

I think it's pretty obvious that DePo has a computer simulation that predicts an ERA under 3.00 if he uses 5 infielders behind Lowe.

I would *love* to see teams try stuff like this more frequently if they have the data and the personnel. 5 IFs with a GBer on the mound if you have a couple of fliers in the OF, 4 OFs against guys who seldom hit GBs, etc.

Don't forget the JCF (Jim Colbrun Factor). Jimmy has done a great job with an average pitching staff and helped to turn Jeff Weaver around from his dismal Yankee days. Expect the JCF to return Lowe to his potential.

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