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Well, 3 years for $47 million, to a pitcher who was only 33, and whose last five seasons looked like this:
year W-L ERA IP H BB K2002 13-8 3.45 185.1 148 73 196
2003 17-5 2.34 207.2 152 46 208
2004 18-7 3.20 225.0 165 77 251
2005 12-7 4.40 172.0 160 85 165
2006 11-9 3.59 213.1 189 80 180
was one of the most low-risk, reasonable contracts we were seeing at the time.
Sure, he was past his peak - a steady increase in baserunners - but what were the odds that he'd stop being able to make 29 starts a year, or tail off drastically somehow? And he himself was being quite logical in expecting three more years of good production to enable him to get one last big contract after 2009.
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