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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Giants - Signed Rowand
San Francisco Giants - Signed CF Aaron Rowand to a 5-year contract.The financial terms also haven't disclosed, but I'll guess somewhere between $50 and $70 million.
Rowand's not a bad signing for a team in contention, but the Giants almost certainly aren't one of those teams. Rowand might help the team simply not be embarrassing and avoid 100 losses, so I guess there's value in that. The good thing about the signing is that Rowand instantly becomes San Francisco's best position player and practically the youngest position player with a full-time job. Of course, that points to some serious issues San Francisco because Aaron Rowand shouldn't be the best position player on your team or nearly the youngest.
If you're taking odds on the Giants scoring the fewest runs in baseball, this might push them from 1-7 to 1-4. Even the Astros should handily outscore this team.
I hope this signing puts to bed the notion that Bonds was hurting the team because his salary could sign 2 or 3 really awesome players. That notion doesn't get very far around here, obviously, but there's a section of fans that still believes this.
I'm probably being too nice about this signing but half, but hey, I'm in a good mood that the Orioles didn't just give away Tejada.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Aaron Rowand
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Projection 536 76 149 35 2 14 69 33 97 7 .277 .340 .427 97
2009? 504 70 133 29 2 12 63 27 92 8 .264 .325 .401 87
2010? 458 65 123 26 2 11 60 25 82 7 .269 .331 .406 90
2011? 443 64 120 26 2 11 59 25 79 7 .271 .335 .413 93
2012? 417 60 112 24 1 9 56 24 72 7 .269 .335 .396 89
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Opt. (15%) 600 96 175 41 3 17 82 44 94 10 .292 .364 .455 111
Pes. (15%) 476 56 120 27 1 9 51 25 94 1 .252 .300 .370 72
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Sabean is the GM equivalent of Scottish food. It's like all his moves are based on a dare.
If that's true then the Fukudome signing is a great coup by Hendry
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3152201
He slugged .407 and .425 the two years before 2007
3-2-1 established slugging is .467
That's in parks with a park adjustment factor of 104/105
he's going to one that's played neutral the last 2 years
that .467 "would" have been .445 or so in San Fran
still .455 seems a might low for "optimistic"
Also are these factors for runs or slugging?
I'd expect a fractionally pessimistic projection anyway - unless Zips has a ran into a fence variable.
Not a ZiPS expert, but I'd think that was tied into his 2007 being so much better than his 2005-2006. If the previous 3 years influence ZiPs so greatly, then I'd think that result would happen from time to time.
Aaron Rowand is a Green Mountain Boy?
No. The Giants have no good position players.
Dusty Baker?
Duh.
But it is the case that the Sabean of those years and the Sabean of the past few bear little resemblance to one another. Sabean pulled off a number of good trades, acquiring Kent, Snow, Hernandez, Burks, and Schmidt, and moreover he demonstrated a nice knack for picking up bargains who made useful contributions in supporting roles.
However, since 2003 or so Sabean has turned into a complete blockhead.
Not a ZiPS expert, but I'd think that was tied into his 2007 being so much better than his 2005-2006. If the previous 3 years influence ZiPs so greatly, then I'd think that result would happen from time to time.
Yeah, it happens a bit if a particular good or bad season moves farther off the radar. I use 7-5-4-2 weighting for hitters starting at age 25.
Also, you sometimes see some rounding issues. For example, the 2010 is 11.4 HR and the 2011 one is 10.5 HR, but I tell Excel to round to the nearest decimal so that the BA/OBP/SLG turns out correctly and fractional homers and stuff looks kinda retarded.
There's an NL->AL penalty, though I'm fairly certain it's less than PECOTA's (I tend to be conservative and regress the balance moderately towards even).
Dan,
When does the first build of ZIPS come out?
As always, I appreciate your work.
Sabean needs to be fired yesterday.
Thanks
From 1997-2007 The Giants averaged 87 wins.
Over that time, Bonds was worth 6.7 Batting wins/year. Subtracting 6.7 from 87, and you get 81.3.
So, ignoring Bonds' defense (which includes some good, some average, and some ugly years in LF), Sabean has been worth 0.3 wins above average GM who was gifted Barry Bonds.
BUT he did at the expense of never developing the farm system, such that 81 wins would look mightly nice for 2008.
I don't buy that he had a touch, and lost it. Most of the "Sabean Value Added" has been those trades mentioned by Steve. I think those trades were pure, blind, dumb, luck. I mean, how could he know Kent would be come a HOF-level hitter? How could he know Schmidt was a couple happy words from a pitching coach away from a CY-calibre set of seasons? If he he did have some way of knowing - why would this ability disappear.
Signing Rowand is a vintage Sabean move. High batting average, started > 4 years in MLB, good defensive rep (in this case, probably justified, but I think Sabes goes on rep - Vizquel, Matheny, etc. rather than somehting more quantitative).
It's not going to cripple the Giants (although not a great time to punt even a 2nd round pick), but realisitically, it's just another Randy Winn.
I was referring to 1997 to 2004. They average 92 wins per season. The Giants average 73 wins from 1994 to 1996 and they were getting worse each year with a 68 wins in 1996. That's a pretty big jump. What changed in 1997?
90% of the men who have ever been GM's would not have made the Matt Williams trade. He was almost as big a star as Bonds. The fans were outraged, but Sabean had the big brass ones to make that move, which was his first significant one. He got JT Snow that winter, turning over his entire infield. He started with two third baseman and ended with an entire infield before the beginning of the 1997 season. But that's why he was successful. He was willing to make risky trades because he had nothing to lose when he was started. After a while of enjoying the fruits of his success, he starts worrying about screwing up and loses his nerve to make daring trades. One day he wakes up and trades three good pitchers for AJ Pierzynski.
Why do you throw out 2005-2007?
The Williams trade was brilliant. Miraculously so. That's the thing about miracles. They are hard to depend on. It was simply a miracle that Kent turned in to the player he did. If not, why didn't Sabean after getting blasted for the trade say "hey, Kent is going to be a bigger star that Matty ever was". He didn't because he had no idea. He made that trade because he also got Jose Vizcaino (the first), and Julian Tavarez!!! Those two guys were not exactly huge keys for the Giants in 1997 or any ML team, ever. One thing Sabean was correct about was that Matt Williams was done, and he absolutley traded him at the correct time.
JT Snow was the worst regular (i.e., good enough to keep his job) player in baseball for about 10 years.
His other great trade was getting Schmidt for squid scraps.
Over that time, Bonds was worth 6.7 Batting wins/year. Subtracting 6.7 from 87, and you get 81.3.
So Sabean would have went with a 24-man roster? Without Bonds, Sabean would have done something stupid -- like outbid the Orioles for David Segui -- but whomever he signed would have added some value.
There's also a chance that the Giants could have signed Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield. The whole "the Giants wuz handcuffed by Bonds's's salary"-argument is lame, but you have to think that ownership would have at least considered overpaying for a star if Bonds wasn't around.
I feel like that with the alt.sports.baseball.sf-giants folks and McCovey Chronicles. The only one whose name I recognize on McC is, uh, Zen Bitz. He gets around.
Yeah, I can't think of any else of the Giants NG crowd that's around here, though I could just be forgetting someone (like I forgot you were a usenet guy, too). It'd be tickled pink if I could somehow lure Bernstein or Pearlman or Lentz to stop by.
As for you Floyd, you forgot to add that Sabean should be credited with an average number of wins garnered from Bonds' salary.
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