Mariners - Acquired Bedard

Best wishes to Bedard, the new Five-for-One. It's hard to believe, but the infamous Von Hayes trade is now a quarter-of-a-century past.

Ideally, I'd like the O's to be at the end of a rebuilding process and signing Bedard for the long-haul to take the bad taste of the gross mishandling of Mike Mussina's contract out of my mouth. But if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas (ha! I completed the figure of speech, pudding-proofers).

The Mariners only seemed grudgingly interested in Jones and Sherrill the last couple of year, only grudgingly giving Sherrill a full shot in '06 and acting this winter as if finding a full-time spot for Adam Jones was some annoyance like waiting for the cable guy instead of a marvelous opportunity to have a new, star Mariner for the next decade. Bedard's a tremendous pitcher, so he will help the team, but the team's still not really here or there and the most likely result is that they now finish in high single-digits behind the Angels. The team is respectable, a solid enough franchise that's willing to spend, but even though he didn't do anything objectionable in this case, it's still in the team's interest to find the replacement for Buzzie's Other Idiot Son. Seriously, was anyone in Seattle eagerly waiting Horacio Ramirez to be given another chance at making the rotation for no particular reason?

The reason this trade is great for the Orioles comes down to one name's name. Keith Reed. Generally speaking, before the last two years, when the Orioles sign players, they search for the players they think Keith Reed should have been, but sign the players Keith Reed actually was. This trade gives the O's sometime they haven't had in a long time - one of those 5-tool guys who can actually play baseball. Sherrill's not the typical player you see in a rebuilding team, but the O's always insist on getting some major league player back in a trade and you generally have to just accept it, like when you buy your wife/girlfriend a small gift so she doesn't complain about you going out with your friends to watch football and drink all weekend. The shiny object that attracts the O's eyes is actually a good pitcher to boot, so it's not the worst thing in the world. Tillman is the other key pitcher in a trade, with an excellent curve and while his stats at High Desert were kind of weak to the naked eye, everybody's High Desert pitching stats are ugly. Hell, I could probably hit 10 homers there and my main exercise lately is carrying two cases of beer at a time. Mickolio could appear in the bullpen pretty quickly. Butler's a few years away, but he's gotten his control more under, uh...control, and is a big, solidly-built guy.

Nice projection for Bedard, mainly because I think my Dual-Core has a crush on him. O's fans shouldn't worry about Tillman - the projection is simply a reflection of him not being ready in 2008. All in all, I have to give the Orioles credit - most of them time when they make a move, Orioles fans of a religious bent seek out the Book of Job for enlightenment.

2008 ZiPS Projections
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Player      W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+
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Bedard     14   5  28  28  179  145   59  14  61 215  2.97  145
Mickolio    4   4  37   0   57   64   30   7  14  30  4.74   98
Sherrill    3   2  71   0   45   39   16   3  17  44  3.20  143    
Tillman     7  12  29  29  138  154   89  21  78  90  5.80   79
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2007 ZiPS Projections  
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Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  OPS+
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Jones        482  63  138  22  4  24  74  33  97   9  .286  .342  .498  115
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