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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, November 30, 2007
Nats - Acquired Milledge
Washington Nationals - Acquired CF Lastings Milledge from the New York Mets for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider.Yuck.
While the initial reaction is revulsion, it's not really as bad as the Kazmir trade as the Mets do get a worthwhile player back in Ryan Church. It's still pretty bad, though, as Brian Schneider's arm is still living off the reputation he garnered in 2003-2004 when he threw out more than 50% of baserunners (he's been down around 30% the last few years) and while his platoon splits are large, he doesn't really hit righties all that impressively either; he's just that much worse against lefties. He's an inferior player to Castro and while $5 million a year isn't a crippling amount for the Mets, why pay it for a player who should be a backup catcher?. This would have been a better trade for the Mets if it was straight up for Church, though not a good deal by any stretch. Hell, it would have been a better trade for the Mets if they picked up John Schneider with the intention of making a straight-to-DVD-thriller "Bo Duke and the Thundercats in The Prisoner of Zenda."
I like Ryan Church. He's a solid player in a corner, not a star, and not really a centerfielder, either. He was treated rather shabbily with the Nats who thanked him for his 287/353/446 rookie season by giving Brandon Watson his job for no particular reason after Church didn't have a great spring. Even after his best professional season, most of which was wasted toiling in the minors and off the bench, again for no particular reason, the Nats acted like they were doing a favor by letting him get at-bats.
All this being said, I'd rather have Milledge. Milledge is a good player now, has tremendous physical tools, is 7 and a half years younger than Church, and has less service time to boot. Yes, there have been some questions about Milledge in center and while I don't buy them, we know that Church isn't a centerfielder.
I don't think I have to even go into detail why this is good for the Nats. The Nats get the cheapest player in the trade, the most valuable player in the trade, and the player with the least service time in the trade, and the player that most fills a need for their new team in the trade.
Oh, wait, I forgot. Milledge likes rap music, said an expletive, and doesn't always wear his baseball cap to complete professional standards. Whoop-de-doo.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Ryan Church
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 410 54 112 31 1 17 63 48 99 3 .274 .356 .482
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Opt. (15%) 460 71 137 38 2 24 92 61 98 3 .298 .386 .546
Pes. (15%) 267 29 65 16 0 8 38 26 69 0 .243 .315 .393
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Top Comps: Ruppert Jones, Gus Bell
2008 ZiPS Projection - Lastings Milledge
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 392 55 108 20 4 15 60 42 88 7 .276 .360 .462
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Opt. (15%) 547 91 162 33 6 28 98 71 107 12 .296 .390 .532
Pes. (15%) 362 44 89 17 2 12 48 36 85 3 .246 .323 .403
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Top Comps: Andruw Jones, Curt Flood
2008 ZiPS Projection - Brian Schneider
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 365 29 87 14 0 5 38 41 62 1 .237 .317 .316
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Opt. (15%) 399 37 107 18 0 6 41 49 55 1 .258 .353 .358
Pes. (15%) 228 13 48 6 0 1 15 20 42 0 .211 .277 .250
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps: Johnny Oates, Jorge Fabregas
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 30, 2007 at 01:55 PM | 146 comment(s)
Related News: NY Mets, Washington
Related News: NY Mets, Washington
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That's rather impressive.
How come ZIPS gives Church such an advantage in doubles when the two players otherwise seem very very near in offensive profile?
I know, there probably isn't much of an answer to that question.
He also, get this, sometimes celebrates home runs.
Andruw is a weird one. Milledge has never flashed that kind of power, while he has shown oodles more patience.
Kill me now.
As long as I'm a Mets fan, I'll never understand this trade. Nor will I forget or forgive it either.
He had sex in high school! How can you trust him to be a honourable gentleman anymore?
I dunno... if it's late in the season and the team needs a few more GIDP to move up in the standings, I might let it slide.
That is so true.
Will there ever come a time I won't be embarassed to be a Mets fan?
Several months ago it looked like that time had come. Now I'm feeling embarrassed again.
Until he's 35 and on the downside. That's when the Mets trade for him.
(Lost) Opportunity cost detracts from the deal.
And did I hear properly that they might be non-tendering Estrada? Why deal for him in the first place then?
Makes you want to redo your calculations of a Santana deal doesn't it?
My condolences to Mets fans.
Absolutely. I just had no idea that a deal this bad was even possible. A merciful commissioner would veto it.
Schneider's OPS+ last 5 years: 78, 83, 97, 72, 77.
Great.
So, Mets fan get to watch 2 home grown young players who could be stars start for the Nationals due to Omar's idiocy.
Don't forget he wore a gold chain on the field!
The enormous wooden cross really worried Minaya. Thou shalt keep thy religion to thyself!
Seconded!
We need a catcher. Brian Schneider is a catcher. We need an outfielder who is definitely ready to play full-time next year --Ryan Church. We fill two needs by giving up a guy who might not be ready in 2008.
Second attempt: Church and Milledge will be roughly equivalent value players in 2008. Plus we get a catcher. So it's a good deal for us.
Third attempt: Milledge has permanent injury. But other team will be so excited by lopsided nature of trade, they'll waive physical exam.
I SOLVED THE PUZZLE?
Top Comps: Rondell White, Andruw Jones (Flood down to 3rd)
Church 2009: 263/344/461
Top Comps: Don Lock, Gus Bell
I get .260. 90 non-HR hits divided by 346 non HR, non SO at bats.
Still, these are his BABIPS the last 5 years: .271, .277, .286, .298, .260. Career BABIP of .284. He's 31 and doesn't hit home runs any more. Maybe he'll get better, but not by much. He just doesn't hit the ball very hard. On contact, he's a career .300 avg/.450 slg. That's AWFUL.
Wow. Milledge moves up quickly while Church starts to decline already -- I would've guessed that Church stabilized in 2009, still only his age 29 season, and wouldn't start to decline until 2010, but whatever. This could still be an okay trade for the Mets if major league baseaball is abolished after the 2008 season.
.211/.277/.250
No, this would be mean:
ZiPS Career Projection - Lastings Milledge
Andruw is a weird one. Milledge has never flashed that kind of power, while he has shown oodles more patience."
What? No.
What other Andruw Jones are you thinking of
Andruw is a weird one. Milledge has never flashed that kind of power, while he has shown oodles more patience.
Andruw walks. You can look it up.
My condolences Met fans. The 'dump a guy because the manager doesn't like him' trades are almost always a disaster.
Indeed it does.
If that's the case Ryan ,Jews will burn in hell forever, Church is not your guy.
ZiPS Career Projection - Lastings Milledge
I hate you, Dan. I should hate Omar right now, but I think I have to settle for just hating you.
.211/.277/.250
Hell, the optimistic is .258/.353/.358.
Meanwhile, Milledge has a tad lower optimistic projection than Church, but a tad higher pessimistic projection. Odd.
I just want to say one thing. If Milledge approaches that career path, Omar isn't the only GM who should get skewered because it's pretty obvious that he was very available.
True, but Omar should get destroyed for this. Did he even shop Milledge around when he decided to dump him? This is really all he could get?
Fortunately I just can't see quite that kind of power,
Unfortunately I can see just about everything else.
Then again even if Milledge's career looks like
the Mets lose this trade.
Anderson-Bagwell (and Smoltz-Alexander) are better than this if for no other reason than that they got someone on their staff to pitch them into the playoffs, even if they ended up losing the trade big time in years 2-infinity; here that's not a consideration. Players like Church who get a late start on their careers tend to tank quicker than you think (responding to post #34), while there's always a chance that a youngster like Lastings will catch lightning in a bottle and develop like mad. Insane trade.
If he puts up those numbers while playing mostly CF, that's a no doubt HOFer.
Obviously, Dan, you don't realize that intangibles, character and clubhouse chemistry win world championships. Milledge didn't have enough of those to make the Mets a winner.
This season, I had to trade one of Milledge or Kemp for some saves so I could strengthen my chance to win my NL only keeper league. After a long deliberation (three seconds), I kept Kemp and gave up Milledge. Mind you, I thought they were comparable prospects, but also knew that Milledge wouldn't start for the Mets in 08, and had a 50/50 chance of being in the AL busting rhymes. Of course, Kemp might be AL-bound as well... Oh, and I won my league.
Dan, that indeed is really mean. I didn't think you had so much evil hiding in your soul.
Is that trade official yet?
That's coming later tonight - the Milledge trade had less 3 players to project instead of 6, so I did it first!
Go to hell.
And, yes, that ZIPS thing was cruel like the death of Anton Webern.
Minaya isn't the GM of a rebuilding team. If he's going to use his best trade chit, then he's going to target what (he thinks) the team needs to contend next year. That would really be the only reason to shop him around.
The only hope is a 1 in 10,000 shot for a Roberto Kelly-Paul O'Neill type ending.
Nah. Two bad trades are better than one.
Don't think about the deal. It only hurts your brain more.
The longer after the shock, the more baffling this trade seems.
For every positive or exciting play he makes, he makes two dumb and inexplicable ones. He hasn't shown an aptitude for hitting offspeed stuff, especially from quality righthanders. He misses time with injury every year. For all his natural athleticism, neither playing the outfield nor running the bases comes naturally to him.
Sure, all this is part of being a young player, and the Nats didn't give up any cornerstone guys to acquire him. But, please, can we stop referring to Milledge as if he's a championship-caliber center fielder?
He's proven nothing.
Does Bill James really sponsor Doug Flynn's page?
Bull. He's proven an outstanding ability to hit LHPs. He's proven he can play CF; his difficulties in the OF have virtually all been in playing the corners, an adjustment he was trying to make at the major league level. He's proven, most critically of all, an impressive ability to make adjustments at the plate, altering his approach last season from a (nearly) pure pull hitter who tried to mash everything to an all-fields swing that yielded better success. A young player who shows that he is able to actually make adjustments based on the way pitchers are getting him out is a rare thing, and IMHO it is the single most important attribute that separates a prospect who might or might not be successful from a player you can be confident will translate his potential into performance. Milledge showed me he can and does do this. It will serve him -- and, unfortunately, the Nats -- extremely well. He will make multiple all-star teams. Mark my words.
Parody of what, I don't know.
Where does this rank on the horrible Mets trade scale? Definitely below Ryan and Kazmir. Above Singleton?
I think that's a pretty good bet.
Unless Minaya has inside info that Milledge is about to go down for multiple felonies and bet on baseball and slept with his teenage daughter, there cannot be an excuse for this trade.
When Bob Murphy died.
1. Seaver for dreck
2. Kazmir for 10 minutes
3. Ryan for a sub-.500 manager
4. Otis for Foy
5. Dykstra for a guy named after me (sort of)
6. Milledge for nuttin'
7. Staub for Lolich
8. Singleton et al. for Staub
9. Mitchell for McIDon'tCare
Bids start at 4.99 for a nice 8x10 glossy of Bad Kevin.
That's nice, but he's going to see RHP about 75 percent of the time if he plays every day. And close to 90 percent of the time after the sixth inning.
> He's proven he can play CF; his difficulties in the OF have virtually all been in playing the corners, an adjustment he was trying to make at the major league level.
Correct. Should such a gifted CF struggle with the adjustment, though?
> He's proven, most critically of all, an impressive ability to make adjustments at the plate, altering his approach last season from a (nearly) pure pull hitter who tried to mash everything to an all-fields swing that yielded better success. A young player who shows that he is able to actually make adjustments based on the way pitchers are getting him out is a rare thing, and IMHO it is the single most important attribute that separates a prospect who might or might not be successful from a player you can be confident will translate his potential into performance.
Yes, he did change his approach noticeably from Year 1 to Year 2. But his pitch recognition when facing RHP has to improve *dramatically* for me to have the level of confidence you do.
> He will make multiple all-star teams. Mark my words.
By virtue of *someone* from the Nats having to go, you may be right.
Correct. Should such a gifted CF struggle with the adjustment, though?
Insert Mike Emeigh's speech about prospects adjusting defensively here and add caveat regarding Milledge playing an unfamiliar position.
Offhand, I can't think of a team in the majors with two outfielders who are such good bets to be excellent bangs for the buck.
- Majewski/Bray for Kearns/Lopez/Wagner.
- Vidro for Snelling/Fruto/$$$$$ on Vidro's contract.
- Fruto for Willy Mo Pena.
- Livan for actual prospects, at least one of whom pitched almost the entire year in the rotation.
- Finding Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard on the scrapheap.
- Stealing Jesus Flores from under Omar's nose.
- Best haul of any team for the 2007 amateur draft (and they signed every last one of them too).
- Church/Schneider for Milledge.
This is a remarkably good record over the last two years...all good moves, arguably two genuine heists, and NO bad moves. The contracts given to Belliard and Young, sometimes criticized, make a lot more sense when you realize that a.) Belliard is at least putting up league-average numbers at 2B for relative peanuts; b.) Young's contract makes a lot more sense given the fears that Nick Johnson might be done.
There was a time when I couldn't express just how much I hated Jim Bowden as Nats GM. These days I'm convinced he's the most underrated GM of the 30 MLB clubs.
It is waaaaaaay to early to have any real clue about that
It's also been great because Kasten has reigned him in with his media appearances. You don't get those wackyass Bowden quotes that make you cringe anymore -- a blessing and a curse I s'pose.
(The Lerners and Kasten didn't officially take over til about 1/3 of the way through last season... early May, I think)
I believe that's also what the Red Sox fans were saying after the 2006 draft... granted, I really don't know how the 2006 Red Sox draftees are doing... but worse than Joba/Kennedy, I'd guess...
spends his whole HOF career there ..
wouldn't that be something :)
There's no reason to get nasty, now.
But hey, tell you what. They can both go in the same year as Wright and Reyes, career Mets whose plaques will read, in (identical) part:
Cornerstone of Mets franchise that dominated the NL and baseball, winning nine pennants and five World Series titles during his career, despite the mind-numbingly dumb things the people running the team did from time to time
And then we can all enjoy that sunny day in Cooperstown together!
Well, in fairness...
1. It's what BA was saying.
2. The Yankees draft was rated second.
3. Some of us saw it coming that Bard blew goats. Others of us just knew well enough to listen to Temple.
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