Pirates - Acquired Milledge

Let's get the Nats side of the trade out of the way first. Morgan's not a good offensive player and a 350/350 season is pretty much what he can reasonable expected to top out at. As long as he's 10-15 runs better than average in centerfield, where he's likely to be when all is said and done, he's a usable player somewhere around league-average. Problem is, Morgan turns 29 in a few days and defensive aging among baseball players isn't a curve, but a line, pointing down. Sure, he could be like Mike Cameron and play good defense in center forever, but that's not typical. A team like the Nationals should see upside in every player they pick up and I just don't see where the upside is in Morgan. He's not particularly disciplined, he's unlikely to develop any power or improve defensively, so where's the payoff? I hated the Milledge trade from the perspective of the Mets, but sitting there at Thanksgiving '07, the idea that Church could possibly develop into a .875-.900 OPS player wasn't something that was induced from sniffing airplane glue.

The same goes for the Burnett-Hanrahan part of the swap. Burnett's upside is a solid LOOGY with unimpressive stuff. Hanrahan hasn't been great (and his peripherals suggest a better ERA than he's shown), but if he works out, you have a classic big fastball/slider shutdown reliever. Obviously, I think Hanrahan is a terrific pickup for the Pirates and way to turn a commodity into something with upside.

That brings us to Milledge, saved for last for obvious reasons. Yes, Milledge has been disappointing and his behavior has frequently left much to be desired. But against that, you have the fact that people in their early-20s aren't exactly known for their amazing levels of maturity and that turning prospects into players and boys into men is their job. Some of the reports about Milledge in New York and Washington have been ridiculous - at times, you can almost tell that the "unnamed sources" speaking to beat reporters are just straining to not use the word "uppity" when Milledge commits such crimes against humanity like high-fiving fans in a moment of joy and excitement or an interest in rap music. I know that 60-year-old white guys have more important matters, like getting half a billion dollars in corporate welfare from local governments, to attend to, but it would be nice if certain organizations would be able to deal with prospects that aren't either nice, clean-cut white boys who love Jesus and listen to country music or eager immigrants who used milk cartons as gloves and desperately want to send money home to their family overseas.

As a player, Milledge has showed flashes at times, coming back from a groin injury last year to hit 299/355/448 in the second half. 2009 has been a disaster for Milledge, but a disaster essentially consisting of 100 PA. The idea that Milledge is done at 24 because of a bad month and a broken hand is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, Milledge needs to show less indifference with his defense, but it's a two-way street - organizations need to show less indifference towards Milledge's future, as well and do their ####### jobs.

Is Pittsburgh the right destination? I don't really know. At least they have the right idea, get upside for no-upside. But will the organization nurture Milledge as a player, treat him like a valued member of the organization rather than an annoyance every time he does something that may not be Brent Bozell-friendly? That remains to be seen.

2009 ZIPS Projection - Lastings Milledge
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                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
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Year-to-Date   105   11   22   4   0   0    4    3   27   6 .210 .236 .248
Rest-of-Year   204   28   57  10   1   7   24   14   39   9 .279 .337 .438
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2009 ZIPS Projection - Nyjer Morgan
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                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
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Year-to-Date   278   39   77   6   5   2   27   29   49  18 .277 .351 .356
Rest-of-Year   221   32   58   7   2   1   15   16   40  18 .261 .322 .322
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Total          499   71  135  13   7   3   42   45   89  36 .270 .338 .341

2009 ZIPS Projection - Sean Burnett
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                 W    L    G  GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
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Year-to-Date     1    2   38   0   32.3   22   11    3   15   23  3.06
Rest-of-Year     1    1   33   0   29.3   30   15    3   16   20  4.60
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Total            2    3   71   0   61.7   52   26    6   31   43  3.79

2009 ZIPS Projection - Joel Hanrahan
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                 W    L    G  GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
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Year-to-Date     0    3   34   0   32.7   50   28    3   14   35  7.71
Rest-of-Year     2    2   36   0   42.7   41   19    4   20   43  4.01
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Total            2    5   70   0   75.3   91   47    7   34   78  5.62

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.