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and if he's kevin mitchell, do you really want him on your team?
Well, when was the last time he had 500 in a season? Exactly.
dan's projections don't really project playing time.
My understanding is that while ZiPS does project playing time (projecting counting totals would be impossible without doing so), the playing time projections themselves are not meaningful. Numbers like RAR and WMV are just "FYI, refer to these at your own peril" goodies Dan tosses at us. Of course, Dan would know better than I do.
From everything I read, my best guess is that it's related to Jerry Narron's firing. Narron's brother was close to Hamilton and his quasi-caretaker for the Reds. When Jerry was fired, however, his brother went along with him, and Hamilton was apparently not very pleased.
Maybe the Reds feared that Hamilton -would- fall off the wagon if he's so unhappy about this. Pure speculation on my part, of course.
How much "I" can there possibly be in an "FYI" that is based on components you say are meaningless?
For that matter, why are the PT projections meaningless? Is that just an arbitrary determination?
Probably b/c they are based on past seasons, so won't reflect role changes.
It's very easy to rescale to a full season, all the information is right there.
Not sure I follow you. You're saying I should to take meaningless PT data, and scale it to a full-season?
I think there is definitely some meaning that can be gleaned from playing time info, but there is no way to know without more context how that might change in the future or effect his future performance. If ZIPS projects some lefty masher (for example) to excel in 200 PAs based on his past performance, that doesn't mean that he'd do just as well in 500 PAs. And there's no way to know if he'll be injured and miss the whole season, or if there will be other injuries that will force him to get 500 PAs, or if some other player will overtake him and force him to the bench moreso than in the past.
Just multiply everything by 600/(useless PT projection) to remove the dependency on the playing time projection and instead use a season with 600 PA. Of course, first you would have to calculate how many PA is projected (using the AB projection would fail to rescale walks).
Here are the helpful parts (to me):
Q. Oh my God, my favorite team is projected to get 15000 games! Are you the biggest idiot ever?
A. I'm projecting equivalent production. A player with a projection of 230/270/400 is projected to hit that in the majors if he got that estimated playing time in the majors.
Q. How is playing time calculated?
A. Based solely on recent playing time. ZiPS, as a consequence, only projects injuries to the extent that the injuries were properly reflected by the past playing time.
This being the case, I am not sure why Dan completely backs away from claiming to project PT.
I don't know that I'd use the verb "dump" here. If the Narron brothers are critical to Hamilton staying clean, then we're talking about something that goes well beyond MORP or WMV. Back in April there was speculation that Krivsky tried to do something similar with Josh Hancock's life, only there weren't any babysitters around for Hancock.
It's defensible, I'd say.
Long-term, it may work out OK, but it also has the potential to be a huge disaster. I can't say I would or woule not have done it without knowing what the Reds know. That is true of ALL trades to an extent of course, but I think it is particularly true in an unusual case like Josh Hamilton.
Yes but none of Bruce, Dunn or Griffey are centerfields and the supposed 2008 centerfielder (Bruce) has about 250 ABs above A ball. FWIW, Bruce only played 102 games in center of his 132 games in the field last year. Dunn, Griffey and a guy stretched in center look like they'll be horrendous defensively. The Reds had a real need for Hamilton's glove.
I checked out Dan's area from OT's link (#26) and found the reference to 3 Kingdoms. I just finished reading it, and loved it. Zhuge Liang was the Earl Weaver of 3rd century Chinese warfare.
And Guan Yu and Zhang Fei? PED's.
I have not seen numbers on him, but the Reds' overall OF defense according to the metrics remained very bad last year.
That is possible. I just read THT 2008. I noticed that Dewan had Tampa Bay's defense at -107 plays. MGL had it at -102 runs. The Dewan model seems more intuitively likley to be accurate to me, but I don't know. Both had TB dead last in the majors in defense. The Reds, as usual, were in the bottom 5.
The Reds have long needed a top glove man or 2 in the middle of the field. I wanted them to try to sign Everett, and to take a run at Andruw Jones if they were going to move Hamilton or Dunn (I seriously doubt there is any wayJones would have signed in Cincinnati; Everett might have if the money were right).
Hamilton ranks 12th of 42 in CF, Dunn ranks 35th of 42 in LF and Griffey is 28th of 35 qualifying players in RF.
Maybe. Supposedly Castellini wants to keep him. The thing is that Dusty doesn't do rebuilds. Once the Reds hired Baker, whatever one thinks of the hire, it was clear they would be trying to contend in 2008, so they are not going to move Dunn unless they suck again and they do it at the deadline. The issue, in terms of the Reds' parameters, is whether Hamilton for Volquez will help in 2008. I am skeptical but I don't think it was a crazy move.
Hadn't done much with adding a lot of stuff to Dan's area. I've been holding off as a lot of the stuff I hope to house more permanently on danszymborski.com (or transactionoracle.com or zimsdomain.com or a few others depending on what I decide to use as the main name).
I have a hard enough time just beating into the general internet public's collective head how a AA player can be projected to have 500 at-bats in the majors. Last thing I need is to start having to explain the more complex discussion about how a projection system can project playing time derived from the past but not role assignment.
And hell, after all, pretty much everyone who does projections is looking for the rates to work out primarily.
Oh, the mistyped domain squatting that will go on there. Though I suppose that assumes anyone is going there, anyway.
[ab] HAHAHA DISREGARD THAT, I SUCK COCKS
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