BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Rangers

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Rangers - Signed Jennings

Texas Rangers - Signed P Jason Jennings to a 1-year, $4 million contract.

I bet Jason Jennings was damn happy to see the calendar turn to 2008. 2007 was a disaster for Jennings as he had the worst season of his career after tearing a tendon in his elbow in his contract year, and got to watch his former team play in the World Series (he's also the Rockies all-time winningest pitcher). If Jennings has his 2006 season in 2007, he'd be the most desirable free-agent pitcher born since Nixon took office and probably looking at least at a 4-year, $50 million contract right now. Instead, he's headed to one of the least desirable pitching environments and with an organization that seems to have little luck with reclamation projects. Jennings is playing for a contract again, but it's not an easy road.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jason Jennings
------------------------------------------------------------------
             W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+  
------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   7   8  23  23  139  151   75  16  60  89  4.86   95  
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   9   7  25  25  156  158   69  14  57 110  3.98  115  
Pes. (15%)   5   7  19  19  113  130   72  16  55  65  5.73   80
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps: Jason Johnson, Charlie Hudson

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 16, 2008 at 11:53 PM | 20 comment(s)
Related News: Texas

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1. Tuque Snider, Resident Steriod Abuser Posted: January 17, 2008 at 02:56 AM (#2670245)

WHERE ARE THE JOKES SZYMBORSKI.

2. Tuque Snider, Resident Steriod Abuser Posted: January 17, 2008 at 02:59 AM (#2670246)

Unless something really unfortunate happened to you recently, and therefore your sense of humor is at a low ebb. In which case I apologize.

3. Dan Posted: January 17, 2008 at 03:09 AM (#2670252)

I don't understand why a guy looking for a new contract next year would choose Texas. I mean there might not have been 20 clubs lining up to hand him a spot in the rotation, but Texas is a brutal park for pitchers, and the lineup there isn't going to make your win/loss record very impressive. Even if Texas's offer were twice as high as the second highest, you have to figure there was a better place to try and establish a comeback and get a real contract next offseason.

4. 1k5v3L Posted: January 17, 2008 at 03:09 AM (#2670253)

WHERE ARE THE JOKES SZYMBORSKI.

The joke's on Purpura.

5. Dan Posted: January 17, 2008 at 03:10 AM (#2670254)

Even if he posts a 100 ERA+, it will be what, 4.62 or something as a raw ERA value? That's just not an impressive number to clubs who don't use advanced metrics to evaluate pitchers.

6. DrStankus Posted: January 17, 2008 at 03:12 AM (#2670256)

Holy crap.

This was the top thread when this post "went down"

There are no steroid threads in the sidebar.

womp womp

7. Dan Posted: January 17, 2008 at 03:14 AM (#2670257)

No Jim Rice threads either!

8. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 17, 2008 at 03:29 AM (#2670260)

If I were in his position I might consider just putting myself up for straight blind auction among the five teams with the best pitching conditions. Surely one of the Padres, A's, Giants, Mariners, and Marlins (or whoever the five are) would bid $2 million.

9. Dan Posted: January 17, 2008 at 04:16 AM (#2670263)

I find it hard to believe that the Marlins would make that list, even considering their park, given the inferiority of their defense. I'd probably add Toronto to that list instead of Florida, with how amazing their defense has been of late.

10. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: January 17, 2008 at 11:10 AM (#2670334)

I think Daniels is due for some credit on this deal. There seems to be a sentiment that Texas money-whipped Jennings into signing with the team. If this is the case, then would it not stand to reason that Jennings cares only for himself and the money he gets? Players do weird things, like Hunter's first choice being St. Louis. I've never met Jennings, so I can't say if he is selfish or not. Maybe he is, or maybe he wants to play in Texas again (born in Dallas). For all the reasons mentioned above, Arlington does not attract a lot of free agent pitchers, yet Jennings is a Ranger. Obviously, Daniels did something right. For the record, I don't think it was a question of money. Leiber just signed a one-year $3.85 million deal. So Jennings is only getting $0.15 million more. Of these two pitchers, who is more valuable? That's a tough question. Leiber, I would bet, stands to be healthier, while Jennings has more potential upside. I don't think it is any surprise that these two pitchers have similar contracts.

11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 17, 2008 at 11:38 AM (#2670362)

Seems like a pretty good gamble for the Rangers.

12. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 17, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2670372)

Purpura is gone - now with MiLB.
Jennings is from Texas, is he not?
I like this signing for the Rangers as well.

13. Russlan roots for the mediocre Mets Posted: January 17, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#2670412)

Jennings was born in Texas and I guess that might have influenced his decision.

Even if he posts a 100 ERA+, it will be what, 4.62 or something as a raw ERA value? That's just not an impressive number to clubs who don't use advanced metrics to evaluate pitchers.

I don't know whether or not you did this on purpose or not but Kyle Lohse posted a 4.62 ERA (100 ERA+) pitching for the Reds and Phils and it looks like he is going to get a nice contract from someone. I'm sure every team understands the difference between a hitter's park and a pitcher's park, although some teams may do a better job of quantifying these things than others.

This is a nice little gamble for the Rangers. I know for sure I'd much rather gamble on Jennings for short money than Lohse for 30+ million.

14. Bob Dernier Ressort Posted: January 17, 2008 at 01:02 PM (#2670427)

Hmmn. I'll hope for the best, but I keep flashing back to this guy. I suppose ultimately something has to work right for the Ranger pitching staff, though :)

15. John M. Perkins Posted: January 17, 2008 at 02:36 PM (#2670512)

If a free agent pitcher knows Arlington is brutal, then the 29 other GMs know that Arlington is brutal. And why sign for a team to fight for the #5 slot when the Rangers are handing you #3.

16. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: January 17, 2008 at 04:34 PM (#2670602)

I'd probably add Toronto to that list instead of Florida, with how amazing their defense has been of late.

Of course, given that there are still lots of baseball men who evaluate by wins instead of ERA, Toronto isn't looking so hot as a pitch-for-a-contract destination these days.

17. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 17, 2008 at 04:39 PM (#2670607)

I imagine that the thought of pitching in Arlington doesn't have the same effect on a guy who gained his reputation as a solid pitcher while making half his starts in Colorado.

18. a bebop a rebop Posted: January 17, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#2670618)

Hmmn. I'll hope for the best, but I keep flashing back to this guy. I suppose ultimately something has to work right for the Ranger pitching staff, though :)

Probably my fourth-greatest Rangers-related disappointment ever, after 1998, 1999, and 2000.

19. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: January 17, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2670619)

1998, 1999, and 2000.

As a Rangers fan, I cry myself to sleep upon the realization that I refer to the aforementioned years as the "Glory Days".

20. MM1f Posted: January 18, 2008 at 10:57 PM (#2671633)

Like #13 said Jennings is a Texas guy and he's got to be more able to deal with the park condidtions than anyone having pitched in Colorado forever and then pitching a year in the Enron/Minute Maid bandbox

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Rangers - Signed Jennings

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