BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Rays

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 18, 2008

Rays - Signed Pena

Tampa Bay Rays - Signed 1B Carlos Pena to a 3-year contract worth $24 million.

You know what? I like Tampa Bay Devil Rays better. It has meter. So I think I'll return to calling them that.

I'm shocked and appalled at this contract. The media's told me that Scott Boras forces players to squeeze every last dollar for every year of every single contract and if the player doesn't go along with his nefarious schemes, he ties them to the furnace in the basement, leaving them no choice but to subsist on basement bugs and their own urine. Falling back to earth a bit or not, with an MVP-type season in 2007, Pena accepting a buyout of his first year of free agency for $8 million, I have to cringe at what Saw-type torture Pena had to endure in order for Boras to grant him the right to do so. Either that or admit that Scott Boras is an employee of his client who serves the wishes of his client, but that's way too logical to be true.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Carlos Pena
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+  DR   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   478  80  127  22  0  35  90  88 139   2  .266  .385  .531   139   -9    
2009?        452  69  117  22  0  31  90  74 133   1  .259  .371  .513   131   -9
2010?        441  68  113  23  0  29  86  70 130   0  .256  .366  .506   128  -10  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   511  97  148  27  1  43 117 101 139   3  .290  .413  .599   164   -5   
Pes. (15%)   378  54   91  16  0  23  57  64 118   1  .241  .353  .466   115   -13
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Superjew, Jim Gentile

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2008 at 10:09 AM | 21 comment(s)
Related News: Tampa Bay

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1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 18, 2008 at 11:43 AM (#2671163)

I like the deal from Tampa's standpoint. Seems like the downside risk is pretty limited, it's not a crazy long deal, and it's good for PR without hurting the product on the field.

Who is "Superjew"?

2. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2671165)

Mike Epstein's nickname. I find it quite amusing that Pena's two best comps are a guy nicknamed Superjew and a guy named Gentile.

3. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 18, 2008 at 11:50 AM (#2671173)

Dan, that projection is different from the Pena projection on the Rays projections you ran a couple months ago. Does this reflect any adjustments or did you correct some error in your data?

4. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 18, 2008 at 11:51 AM (#2671174)

Also: projection projection projection.

5. villageidiom Posted: January 18, 2008 at 11:54 AM (#2671175)

I find it quite amusing that Pena's two best comps are a guy nicknamed Superjew and a guy named Gentile.

Carlos Pena is Everyman.

6. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: January 18, 2008 at 12:03 PM (#2671180)

Dan, that projection is different from the Pena projection on the Rays projections you ran a couple months ago. Does this reflect any adjustments

Money changes everyone.

7. snapper Posted: January 18, 2008 at 12:06 PM (#2671183)

Mike Epstein's nickname.

I thought Ernie Grunfeld was "super-jew". Maybe there's more than one?

8. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 18, 2008 at 12:09 PM (#2671186)

I thought Ernie Grunfeld was "super-jew". Maybe there's more than one?
Cue Momus?

Not to keep harping on Pena as a defender, but I find the DR projection(s) highly pessimistic.

9. AlouGoodbye Posted: January 18, 2008 at 12:20 PM (#2671195)

Seems like a really extravagant contract to me, because he might turn back into a Pumpkin and the Rays simply didn't have to assume this risk. Why is it so important to buy out Pena's age-32 season right now? Why not just go to arbitration?

10. Alex Gordon's #1 Fan Posted: January 18, 2008 at 12:26 PM (#2671202)

I would guess he's get quite a bit more than $8 million in arbitration.

11. Mike Green Posted: January 18, 2008 at 12:31 PM (#2671206)

Both Epstein and Gentile subscribed to the "My Generation" philosophy and crapped out at age 30. Both also couldn't hit lefties for love or money, whereas Pena has a fairly typical platoon split and retains his power against portsiders.

12. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#2671261)

There was an error in the old projection.

13. Tuque Snider, Resident Steriod Abuser Posted: January 18, 2008 at 04:19 PM (#2671409)

Did anybody read that New Yorker article on Scott Boras? If not, I highly recommend it...

14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 18, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#2671427)

New Yorker Boras story link.

15. DCA Posted: January 18, 2008 at 04:49 PM (#2671429)

There was an error in the old projection.

Was this error unique to Pena or would it affect more players?

16. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2008 at 05:39 PM (#2671472)

Was this error unique to Pena or would it affect more players?

Just Pena.

17. Voros Posted: January 18, 2008 at 11:04 PM (#2671637)

Seems like a really extravagant contract to me, because he might turn back into a Pumpkin

Pena always had power, maybe not the kind he displayed in 2007, but he's had it. In seasons where he'd had at least 100 ABs, he had posted OPS+ 106, 108, 113 and 112 going into 2007. The other 90 some at bats were around 112 OPS+ as well.

So as Dan's projection shows, the worst case scenario barring injury appears to be around a 110 OPS+ with average to good defense at first base. Best case scenario is more of the same from 2007 in which case the contract is a steal.

18. jwb Posted: January 19, 2008 at 12:54 PM (#2671816)

Actually, that pessimistic line IS Mike Epstein's career line with about 5 more HRs, given the playing time.

Dan, do you use period adjustments in your comps?

19. Shock Posted: January 19, 2008 at 04:07 PM (#2671901)

Gotta love it when even a guy's optimistic projection still isn't as good as the year he just had.

20. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2008 at 04:18 PM (#2671906)

Dan, do you use period adjustments in your comps?

Yes.

21. Mets Fan Posted: May 03, 2008 at 01:40 PM (#2767805)

And yet he's managed to underperform the pessimistic projection.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

Rays - Signed Pena

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