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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Red Sox - Signed Matsuzaka
Boston Red Sox - Have reportedly signed P Daisuke Matsuzaka to a 6-year, $52 million contract.This contract also has escalator clauses that could make Matsuzaka an additional $8 million. Everybody wins here - Matsuzaka gets to come to the US and become damn rich and the Red Sox pay roughly $16 million a year for Matsuzaka, which they'd be willing to do if he were simply a free agent. It was kind of anticlimactic, what with the thundering from both sides for 3 weeks, all the various Seibu kickback/bad faith scenarios. In the end, they take a plane ride and, somewhere over fly-over country, meet in the middle.
So much for the OMG SCOTT BORAS IS MOST EVIL PERSON EVER HE'S SECRETLY STASHED DICE K IN AN UNDERGROUND BUNKER IN SHACKLES WHILE HE SENDS COMMUNIQUES TO THE RED SOX DEMANDING A BILLION DOLLARS OR HE'LL USE THE OMEGA-DOOMSDAY LASER DEVICE TO DISINTEGRATE BOSTON AND JACOBY ELLSBURY stuff that some of Red Sox Nation has been floating around.
All said, the Red Sox are getting the most valuable commodity on the open market this offseason. Yes, he has no experience above AAAA Japan, but he translates as well as Oswalt did coming up and very few pitching prospects have numbers that translate as well as Matsuzaka's. I'm not including the extra toys - we just don't have a lot of experience with starting pitchers from Japanese leagues.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Daisuke Matsuzaka
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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Projection 15 8 26 24 186 186 71 18 34 131 3.44
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Those numbers are pretty close to AROM's projection. I'd guess that his GS and IP would be higher, but I like what I see. According to ZIPS, he'll be even better than Beckett was in 06!
That projected k/w ratio is amost exactly Roy Halladay's last year, except Halladay did it in 220 innings.
Another interesting comp: Pedro Martinez, 2006. 23 GS, 137/39 K ratio, 19 HR and 108 hits allowed in 132.2 innings.
I think Boston fans would be very happy with those as his first six seasons.
Any everyone responded that that was one of the most insightful and level-headed predictions they had seen on BTF in a while. What more do you want?
I'll take part of Boras' cut.
It is - the numbers we're translating are Japanese numbers and thus, reflect Japanese usage patterns.
185 IP, 15-7, 3.46 ERA.
Shandler had much higher peripherals across the board:
25 HR, 51 BB, 197 K.
those are his numbers in japan. he was a real workhorse over there.
And I was dumb enough to give that stuff away for free while Boras gets a big cut. :-)
Can you give us the optimistic and pessimistic numbers, or would they not be that meaningful?
pos player '07-$
C Varitek 9.0
1B Youkilis minimum+
2B Pedroia minimum
SS Lugo 9.0?
3B Lowell 9.0
LF Ramirez 18.0
CF Crisp 3.5
RF Drew 14.0?
DH Ortiz 12.5
C ???
UT Hinske 2.8
UT Cora 2.0
OF Pena 2-3?
UT?
SP Schilling 13.0
SP Matsuzaka 8.5?
SP Beckett 6.0
SP Wakefield 4.0
SP Papelbon minimum+
RP Tavarez 3.1
RP Timlin 2.8
RP Okajima 1.3
RP Delcarmen minimum+
RP ???
RP ???
RP?
DL Clement 9.5
(Seibu Buyout 51.1)
That puts the total payroll (amazingly) around $132 -- a relatively cheap Matsuzaka is a very nice thing, especially if it turns out he can pitch -- which means the Sox may have another $16 million to spend if they want to put themselves close to the luxury tax line. Of course, given the other $50 million they spent just to get the "cheap" Matsuzaka, they may not want to spend up to that line.
I'm not sure what I'd do at this point. Assuming that they were serious about wanting Papelbon to start for health reasons, the rotation seems relatively set -- would the Sox move, say, Beckett or Wakefield to the pen if they were able to sign BZito/RClemens/SFinch/whomever? And, personally, I don't like spending lots of money on hit-or-miss relievers.
Moreover, it would not surprise me if the summer trade deadline is a buyers' market -- more players are (likely) going to want to go to free agency, so (perhaps) more teams will be willing to trade those players before they lose control of them completely. Having some cash in hand to take on salary might be useful at that point.
Can you give us the optimistic and pessimistic numbers, or would they not be that meaningful?
I think you have to add a couple million per year in lost interest costs because the contract is so front loaded ($53M including his $2M signing bonus). But you can also reduce the number a little because half the money escapes luxury tax.
Fake Teams
The numbers above lead to a BABIP of .288 and a component ERA of 3.43, hardly out of whack. 7.3 K/9 isn't exactly a horrific strikeout projection - let's not forget that while they were worse otherwise, both Nomo and Irabu struck out batters at a higher rate than Matsuzaka in Japan.
Using the good old HP12c you I get a touch over 17 a year.
Some writer for the Houston Chronicle expects Clemens to pitch in Boston in 2007, for about 2/3 of the season, with all kinds of superstar exceptions so far as traveling, etc.
So, 2/3 of 22m = 14.67m. Add that and, if Robert's numbers are correct, they are just under the tax threshold.
I don't actually think it will happen (and if Roger's worth a prorated 22m last year, what's he worth in this crazy market?). But it's fun to imagine.
Here's that Houston writer's blog: http://blogs.chron.com/lopezblog/
Based on what he writes on the site he links to, faketeams is a racist, illiterate Yankee fan who thinks Dice-K will cost the Red Sox $33 million per year (choice quote: "Personally all the Yankee fans i know really could careless at this point about the Jap.") So I wouldn't expect him to grasp your response.
What is the variation/confidence level around the .288 BABIP calc?
Chip,
Josh is correct. I did not write that. Nor do I condone, but I refuse to censor that level of commenting.
Fake Teams
The link above is to a diary on Fake Teams by "cookedricebrown," who also posts in the comments on his diary. I'm guessing the person who adopted the I.D. "faketeams" here, and linked to that diary, is the same person. At the very least, the "analysis" contributed in #26 about Matsuzaka's Ks is quoting directly from "cookedricebrown."
My mistake for thinking you were one of the same. But if you don't condone the comments of the ignorant racist, why'd you link directly to them?
I linked to it because it involved some prognostications on Dice-k's 2007 perf. No other reason.
I won't apologize for cbr's lack of sensitivity, but you are free to call him out. At which point, I'd be compelled to censor something that devolved into racist name calling.
Dan,
I'm doing some very rough comparisons using 186 IP, 131 K and 34BB. There aren't many Al pitchers in 2006 like that mainly due to the low walks. Several are in the 50 area though, and those include the likes of Jarrod Washburn and Kelvim Escobar. KE matches nicely. Washburn does not.
A 6.33 K/9 would bring in Jose Contreras and Rodrigo Lopez.
Except that it doesn't, since the payroll is calculated based on AAV, includes benefits, covers the 40-man roster, and would include ongoing payments for Renteria and Arroyo.
An estimate put together at SoSH has the Sox currently at $154 million all-in, exceeding the luxury tax threshold.
Post #26
Of course, one might say that the control is one of the reasons that Matsuzaka was highly sought-after! Washburn's component ERA is 4.57. Escobar's was 3.95.
You have keys?
Fake Teams
Real Teams
The point remains the same, though. It's a good bet that the Red Sox are tapped out for 2007 payroll. Whatever they do to improve the pen will have to be very close to payroll neutral, and I don't know how that's going to work.
* I read the CBA the same way that Bowlerman9, the last sentence of CBA Art. XXIII(C)(2)(b) looks dispositive on this point. So, I'd put the Sox Hinske # at 0.137, or whatever the math is.
* Unless someone can tell me how to read the CBA differently, Manny's AAV is $20mm. The deferred money is included in the AAV, just as bonuses are. CBA Art. XXIII(E)(2) makes this clear:
Maybe the Sox are at $152 because of Hinske - but I don't think they can lower Manny to $18mm. The $18mm represents his 2007 salary, not his AAV.
But it's certainly conceivable to me that MLB would have inexplicably byzantine rules that give the same contract two separate values for separate purposes.
They're independent events really. I'd guess he gets $5M/year for three years with no buyout of arb years.
-club options not yet exercised are ignored
-a player playing in an exercised option year has an AAV of that single year's salary
-buyouts are considered part of the AAV of the contract, and do not add another year to the contract
-signing bonuses are considered part of the AAV of the contract
Couldn't let this one pass, Biv. If you want credit for that thread, you get credit for the following offers:
the Red Sox should offer him 5 mil a year for 4 years, and give him the chance to save face and not have to pitch for Seibu again.
Ichiro got 7.5 mil per. Matsui got 7 mil. Why should Matsuzaka get more?
Ok, lookit. 4/32 is my final offer. And, I will guarantee he can wear #18.
Ok ok, 5/40. We'll give you the extra year. Now let's go.
Your closest was off by 1 year/$12 mil. The rest were waaaaay off. Not something to brag about! :)
Picky picky picky. Everyone else seemed to be giving him 10+million right off the bat. I worked up to 8 mil a year. He ended up with 8.67, which is close enough for me to call "YAHTZEE!!"
I'm a little surprised they gave him 6 years.
Using the ZIPS peripherals, the xERA formula that HQ uses estimates 187 hits and a 3.64 ERA, so the ZIPS ERA might be a little optimistic. Or it could be that Matsuzaka has proven "DIPS skills" in his past performance.
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