mindobblingly

??

I like it, it's got a jabberwocky feel to it.

Spot on analysis too.

I should preface this with a caveat that this is completely theoretical, and I've done no work at all to answer my own question. Just throwing it out there.

I was thinking the other day that this fielder-pitcher mismatch might actually be more effective by avoiding diminishing returns. The goal of having an above average defense is to convert more of the balls on the margins into outs. Might it be possible that when a groundball pitcher allows a flyball, it's more likely to be a marginal ball that some defenders will get to and others will not?

Basically, what I'm thinking is that it's possible that a guy like Derek Lowe could benefit more from having an elite defensive outfield than an elite defensive infield. If the theory is true that a GB pitcher inducing a GB is more likely to be a weakly hit easy out than when a FB pitcher induces a GB, then his balls in play on the fringes of his teammates fielding abilities will occur when he misses his spot, which usually results in a FB.

If the split was significant enough, say 70/30 in favor of his marginal balls in play being flyballs, it may make sense to put a bunch of flycatchers behind him to maximize the amount of marginal balls being turned into outs.

In other words, just because the volume of groundballs is higher doesn't necessarily mean the volume of hard-to-field groundballs is proportionally higher. It might be, but it might not be.

In other words, just because the volume of groundballs is higher doesn't necessarily mean the volume of hard-to-field groundballs is proportionally higher. It might be, but it might not be.

This is possible, but it's counterintuitive enough for me that I don't see why we should assume this to be the case without specific evidence suggesting this.

In other words, just because the volume of groundballs is higher doesn't necessarily mean the volume of hard-to-field groundballs is proportionally higher. It might be, but it might not be.

I have noticed, in the past, that flyball pitchers get a higher percentage of their flyballs turned into outs, and a lower percentage of their groundballs turned into outs, than does the average pitcher.

-- MWE

Yea, that's demonstrably true. Flyball pitchers also have less of their flyballs go for home runs than groundball pitchers.

It seems pretty likely, to me, that the average FB from a groundball pitcher is going to be less catchable than the average FB from a flyball pitcher. The raw data used to compile UZR could tell us for sure.

Are FB's counted separately from pop ups?
Flyball pitchers tend to get lot of weak pop flys and infield pop ups..

I have noticed, in the past, that flyball pitchers get a higher percentage of their flyballs turned into outs, and a lower percentage of their groundballs turned into outs, than does the average pitcher.

Could you post this data? I'd love to see how strong this effect is.

There were 388 pitchers in 2005 who had at least 100 BIP for a team. The group norm was 33.9% FBIP, 74.1% GB converted into outs, and 86.2% FB converted into outs. The weighted standard deviation of FB% for the group was (roughly) 7%.

There were 64 pitchers who had at least 41% FBIP (roughly, one or more SD above the group norm), who can reasonably be described as flyball pitchers. This group got outs on 87.4% of FB and 72.4% of GB.

There were 56 pitchers who did not exceed 27% FBIP (roughly, one or more SD below the group norm), who can reasonably be described as groundball pitchers. This group got outs on 84.3% of FB and 75.4% of GB. (For the D'back guys: Brandon Webb, the second-most extreme pitcher in this group, got outs on 81.2% of FB, 76.4% of GB).

Are FB's counted separately from pop ups?

I usually don't separate them. If I did, since the overwhelming majority of popups are converted into outs, there would be even more separation on FB conversion percentages between FB pitchers and GB pitchers.

-- MWE

Alex Gonzalez was a very strange hitter for the Red Sox. Terrible for the first month or two then surprisingly good then terrible again. ?!?

The last 3 years, Gonzalez's games played have been 159 then 130 then 111 last year. Would you want to pay to see the next number in that progression?

I'd guess the next number is around 130. He's getting a little be expensive here, but still fairly reasonable. I wouldn't have been upset if the Red Sox did this deal. Now they'll have to settle for Nomar.

No data analysis here but I offer that the signing goes to prove a lack of any sort of comprehensive approach in Cincinnati. Lordamighty . . .

So the first thing that comes to mind with that data is that perhaps it's evidence of the very effect that Dan suggested that the Reds should be paying attention to. Namely that teams with strong outfield defenses attract flyball pitchers, and that teams with flyball pitchers try and build strong outfield defenses. The same goes for groundball guys. So while this data is facially consistent with the idea that flyball pitchers generate easier to catch flyballs, and harder to catch groundballs, it's also facially consistent with a much more benign explanation.

Could it be that part of the reason why flyballers have more fly bulls turned into outs is because outfielders know they're playing behind a flyballer and are on their toes, whereas the infielders know the same thing, and are back on their heels? It seems like people who are really attuned to the ins and outs of playing baseball would possibly develop a feel for certain pitchers and their tendencies of allowing BIP.

teams with strong outfield defenses attract flyball pitchers, and that teams with flyball pitchers try and build strong outfield defenses.

The effect still tends to show up when looking at flyball pitchers on teams with staffs that are otherwise groundball-oriented, so I don't think it's quite that simple.

-- MWE

It may be that, despite the data in #9, that the total number of tough fly balls is still higher for a FB
pitcher than it is for a GB pitcher, because they are still giving up more total FBs.

I don't think this is a terrible signing, but it reminds me of the way the team should have been set up originally, but wasn't.

Too late.