If ZiPS is right, it is a pretty good signing. That bullpen needs someone who can fill the role of "reliever who doesn't suck".

Does anyone expect Todd Coffey to bounce back? He was VERY hittable last year but his previous year was pretty solid.

Those are surprisingly (to me) strong projections. Would have expected to see more decline in the numbers.

If you figure a good closer is as valuable as an average starter, then the money is about right. And the Reds are DESPERATE for relief pitching. With this deal, their pen is now three-deep (if they trust Burton).

With this deal, their pen is now three-deep (if they trust Burton)

The corpse of Stanton spews worms at you and shouts HAR!

I would anticipate a mid-4's ERA at best from Coffey. He's always been hittable and even in his "good" year ran a high WHIP.

I agree with Valentine. The way Dusty ruined the young arms in Chicago I wouldn't be surprised to see Cordero's numbers decline over time as well.

I also thought this was a good deal. If Cincy can fill a few holes with cheap talent, and get a few bounces, they could compete in the Central.

If you figure a good closer is as valuable as an average starter

There is not way anybody should ever figure this. Relievers with ERA(s) below 3.00 are a dime a dozen. The only problem is figuring out who they are going to be. I don't know how you are defining "average starter", but if you're talking about a typical team's #3 starter you would need an elite closer to get anywhere near the same value.

If Cincy can fill a few holes with cheap talent, and get a few bounces, they could compete in the Central.

I think that Brewer's are head and shoulders the best bet in the NL Central. And the Reds are also a long way behind of Cubs. Of course who knows what impact Jay Bruce may have, or even how much he will play.

But the Brewer's have Sheets, Gallardo, Capuano, Parra, Bush, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart, & Hall. This is a rather impressive collection of young talent.

The big 4 in prospects, Bruce/Bailey/Cueto/Votto will be pre-arb or 1 year into arb by the last season Cordero is there.
These guys are all top 30 prospects in baseball right now and could all be all-star caliber players.

The big 4 in prospects, Bruce/Bailey/Cueto/Votto will be pre-arb or 1 year into arb by the last season Cordero is there.
These guys are all top 30 prospects in baseball right now and could all be all-star caliber players.

Won't Dusty still be there in the last year of Cordero's deal?

There is not way anybody should ever figure this. Relievers with ERA(s) below 3.00 are a dime a dozen. The only problem is figuring out who they are going to be.

Ah, that's the rub. ERA is a highly volatile statistic, especially for relievers. A single three-run home run, averaged over 60 innings, raises the ERA by 45 points. Thus in any given season there are a number of relievers with ERAs under 3.00, but the number who can be expected to post an ERA under 3.00 is very small. Another way of saying this is that most of the relievers with ERAs under 3.00 are not truly that good -- just lucky. For example, Javier Lopez and Aaron Fultz had a better ERA+ than Cordero last year (43rd among relievers in 2007). All that means is that their bullpen mates bailed them out of jams more often than not.

A quick sort on the CHONE projections for 2008 suggests that Cordero (who himself doesn't project to an ERA below 3.00) is roughly the 17th best reliever in the majors. That's definitely not "dime a dozen" range, not when guys like Linebrink (projected 4.30 ERA) are getting $19M deals.

Another way of looking at it -- Cordero's +18.6 VORP in 2007 is almost identical to Byrd, the 75th best pitcher by VORP (120+ innings). Of course Byrd's 2.5 SNLVAR doesn't quite live up to Cordero's 3.2 WXRL, because Cordero pitches higher-leverage innings.

Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart, & Hall

Ah, but do they have anybody who knows how to use a glove?!? They will have a very hard time winning with their current defensive set. Almost doesn't matter how many runs they score, because their pitchers will be exhausted by the end of the season.

Won't Dusty still be there in the last year of Cordero's deal?

After the two world titles, of course he'll still be there.

does anyone put faith in Dusty to evaluate a bunch of relievers or unsuccessful starters and figure out who has the best chance of long-term success?

Ryan Dempster.

Those are surprisingly (to me) strong projections. Would have expected to see more decline in the numbers.

Me too, for a guy's age 33-36 seasons.

I can't get too worked up about this signing one way or the other. I've got nothing better for the Reds to spend $11.5 M on right now either. Just don't like long-term, big money contracts for relievers in general -- but Cordero has been quite consistently good. As long as the Reds don't poormouth when some high draft pick demands a signing bonus and as long as they don't realize that next year's FA class has the perfect player for them (whoever that might be) but they can't afford him because of this contract, then it looks like no harm, no foul.

Hmmm, just peeked at the Linebrink projections, and he's pretty much constant over 4 years too. Is this a reliever thing? ZIPS just doesn't have enough sample (e.g. Cordero has just 506 career IP, 279 in the last 4) and the comps probably bounce all over the place, that it just shoots for the middle of the random walk and gives it a wide CI?

Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart, & Hall

Ah, but do they have anybody who knows how to use a glove?!? They will have a very hard time winning with their current defensive set. Almost doesn't matter how many runs they score, because their pitchers will be exhausted by the end of the season.

Hardy is sure-handed and at worst average.

Regarding H Bailey, I am unimpressed. He looks like a high pitch count innings muncher that will be transitioned to the bullpen when he is with his 3rd team.

Regarding H Bailey, I am unimpressed.

I recall some suggestion by one of the BP writers that something is wrong with him? Certainly his K/BB went in the toilet last year -- even his AAA strikeout rate was not as strong as I would have expected. Don't know what to expect of him next year, but at this point it is laughable to consider him on par with Buchholz or Hughes or Gallardo. He may still have that kind of potential, but there are good reasons for concern as well.

Hardy is sure-handed and at worst average.

Hart seems to be a good fielder as well, at least for one of the corners. But Hall looked bad in CF, while Braun, Weeks, and Fielder are all among the worst defensive players at their respective positions. Unless his defense improves, Braun is barely better than an average 3B. (He'd be a star DH, of course.) I don't know the solution to this, but I'm pretty sure that adding Kendall and LaPorta to the mix isn't going to help.

Has anyone in the history of ZiPS ever had 4 years that look as identical as those 4? It basically says he will be the exact same player at 36 as 33.

Hmmm, just peeked at the Linebrink projections, and he's pretty much constant over 4 years too. Is this a reliever thing? ZIPS just doesn't have enough sample (e.g. Cordero has just 506 career IP, 279 in the last 4) and the comps probably bounce all over the place, that it just shoots for the middle of the random walk and gives it a wide CI?

I think it gives a wide confidence interval and shows the volatility of relievers. Predicting reliever success is still very hard to do.

Has anyone in the history of ZiPS ever had 4 years that look as identical as those 4? It basically says he will be the exact same player at 36 as 33

Yes, very odd. I think #18 points out that you do need to analyze more than one line, you need to consider OPT and PESS projections and be prepared for each to alternate over a 4 year period.

Has anyone in the history of ZiPS ever had 4 years that look as identical as those 4?

Maybe he's the Gene Larkin of pitchers.

Yikes. Krivsky pursues relievers like Prince Fielder pursues a ham sandwich.