I think Nunez is overlooked. His strikeout numbers don’t jump out at you, but his stuff really is electric. Love this trade for the Marlins.

Agreed. Great trade for the Marlins. Jacobs won't be missed and Nunez has pretty good stuff. I just don't see what Dayton was thinking here.

Why do you make it so hard for me to love you Dayton?

Well, I am encouraged that ZIPS projects a slight increase in OBA for Jacobs. It also projects fewer home runs. Supposedly Jacobs hits a higher number of "no doubters" than average, so maybe the home runs won't be deflated that much at Kauffman.

I'll be interested in seeing ZIPS for Shealy and Kila.

Any thoughts of making Cody Ross a first baseman with Maybin sliding into CF duty? Ross finished decent last season at 260 / 316 / 488. Basically what they got out of Jacobs minus a few HRs.

Jacbos seems to get absolutely murdered by the park in Miami:

2008
Home: .238 .273 .484
Road: .258 .325 .547

2007
Home: .256 .308 .462
Road: .276 .329 .453

2006
Home: .247 .299 .498
Road: .276 .348 .451

Considering that guys usually hit much better at home, I could see Jacobs really blossoming in a neutral or hitters' park. That optimistic line looks pretty doable.

Does ZIPS take into account the differences in strength
between the AL and NL?

Any thoughts of making Cody Ross a first baseman with Maybin sliding into CF duty? Ross finished decent last season at 260 / 316 / 488. Basically what they got out of Jacobs minus a few HRs.

Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF? Unless he is, moving him to 1B really cripples his value. Also, is Maybin really ready? he's only 21. Why not let him play a full year in AAA, and keep the Arb/FA clock from starting?

Dan, does ZiPS take intentional walks into account? Ten of Jacobs' 36 walks this year were intentional, so ZiPS is either predicting he'll be walked a bunch of times intentionally again or that his unintentional walk total will spike as much as 38% (10 more than 26).

I don't see why it would be particularly surprising if Jacobs walk rate improved by 38% from such a low starting point. It's like when Ozzie Guillen's walk rate increased 220% from 1996 to 1997.

Just doing a little math, it seems that ZiPs does take into account unintentional walks. The increase is probably more a result of his previous bad but not horrible UiBB rates. A three year weighted average of Jacobs' unintentional walks gets you ~33 in 500 PAs, which accounts for a 27% spike. Considering that he's shown more ability to walk in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if most projection systems showed a similar increases in walk rate.

Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF?

Ross is very good in CF.

Regardless of how much Jacobs was hurt by the park in Miami, Nunez doesn't look like he's going to have any trouble giving up HRs there.

Ross is very good in CF.

If by very good you mean as good as Beltran you are crazy. I haven't seen numbers from this year but in past years he has been signficantly below average which isn't surprising for a shorty, stocky guy who isn't that fast.

Is Ross absolutely putrid in CF? Unless he is, moving him to 1B really cripples his value.

It doesn't make sense to move a CF to 1B (though it's been done before). Move him to left, then move Willingham to 1st.

It doesn't make sense to move a CF to 1B (though it's been done before). Move him to left, then move Willingham to 1st.

Didn't the Mets that moved Lee Mazzilli from CF to 1B, b/c "You've got to have a good hitter at 1B".

Who cares about this? The people want analysis of the Fernando Tatis contract!

Dan, does ZiPS take intentional walks into account? Ten of Jacobs' 36 walks this year were intentional, so ZiPS is either predicting he'll be walked a bunch of times intentionally again or that his unintentional walk total will spike as much as 38% (10 more than 26).

Well, if he has guys like John Buck and Mark Teahen hitting behind him, he may actually increase his intentional walk total.

Didn't the Mets that moved Lee Mazzilli from CF to 1B, b/c "You've got to have a good hitter at 1B".

Oh it's been done. Like when the Angels had 4 good outfielders and moved Erstad to first instead of Anderson or Salmon. But it doesn't make sense.

Oh it's been done. Like when the Angels had 4 good outfielders and moved Erstad to first instead of Anderson or Salmon. But it doesn't make sense.

That was my initial point. A guy would have to be so bad in CF, it would be unlikely he'd ever have gotten there (instead or RF or LF) in the first place. Barring some sort of catastrophic injury that affects fielding but not hitting.

My projections for Jacobs (currently not park adjusted) are virtually identical to ZIPs, and don't include IBB - 264/310/490 340 wOBA. His HR% spiked in 2005, BB% and SO% virtually unchanged since he was 18. However, his BABIP has declined each of the last 4 years, and now projects below avg at 295. Partly he's been hitting more fly balls each year, but in 2008 he had career low BABIP on both flies and grounders.

Shealy is a carbon copy, with slightly more walks 263/333/461 344 wOBA.

I've got Kila at 247/347/442 346 wOBA, dreadfully low 261 BABIP. Kala actually projects better 258/356/480 363 wOBA

1998-2008 MLB 1b mean wOBA is 357

Supposedly Jacobs hits a higher number of "no doubters" than average, so maybe the home runs won't be deflated that much at Kauffman.

He does, he absolutely crushes the ball, I saw him as a Met farmhand ion Binghamton, with the Mets, and several times with the Marlins- was absolutely mystified why he didn't hit more homers...

I think he has a lot of nagging injuries, he also has trouble making contact at times, and his BABIP cratered last year.