I'd call it a win win. Willis gets guaranteed money,doesn't have to worry about arbitration and gets to be a free agent before he's 30. The Tigers get some short term stability to go with Verlander and Bonderman. I'd guess Willis is a lock to win 15+ with that lineup. Plus he's fun to watch and a good kid. (A good African American kid, along with Granderson, a terrific asset in Detroit).

And he's well-spoken!
</Schilling>

This could be a very nice contract for trading purposes, too.

I think that's a great deal.

#2:

Do you agree with ZiPS on the "long-term" projection, considering he's only 25?

Willis could be pretty bad by his 30th birthday, according to the ZiPS trend we see here.

EDIT: I'm not knocking ZiPS. That would be a stupid thing to do.

Willis could be pretty bad by his 30th birthday, according to the ZiPS trend we see here.

The projections stabilize more or less after the time-frame presented, as his promising years affect the projection only to an extremely small extent.

#8: So how does he look at 30, then?

I really like the additions of ERA+, RAR, and Value, Dan. Great work, as usual.

Unless he somehow cuts down on his walks heading to the AL, I'd be laying money on Willis hitting his pessimistic line. I'll be surprised if he gets his ERA south of 5 in the AL and with his mechanics, a DL stint seems more a question of when, not if.

Willis looks to me to be a special case. Using the usual measures of pitcher effectiveness, he is likely to be raked around pretty well in the AL. 40 homers, 80 walks, more hits than innings pitched and 5K/9IP would not normally be a ticket to success. He does however have a track record of performing better than the usual measures would suggest in a number of areas- much better performance with runners on than with the bases clear and much worse performance when the game is out of reach. Yep, a crafty lefty. And a funky delivery tends to be an asset rather than a liability for these guys.

These guys tend to much better on good teams than on poor ones, and the Tigers are definitely in the former category. I think that it's a smart signing.

Was he an FA after this year or next? If after next year, I don't see the rush. It seems reasonably priced and he does have some upside. Surely 1000 IP by 25 does not augur well though. Ahh, what the hell, the Tigers have enough money this won't hurt them down the road too much if he implodes.

On RAR and value ... not too cluttered but I guess I wonder about one thing. "Value" (in whatever terms) is dependent on playing time and, as we all know, ZIPS is not a playing time projection system. Presumably we would use RAR and $ value to more fully discuss whether it was a good signing/trade, but we'd be relying on projected numbers ZIPS isn't designed to produce.

Well, this didn't go too well; sometimes you lose gambles.

Was it really three years ago that the Tigers signed Willis? Wow.