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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 09, 2004

White Sox - Signed Dye

Chicago White Sox - Signed OF Jermaine Dye to a 2-year, $10.15 million contract.

On the plus side, Dye’s still a very good defensive righfielder, not a total zero offensively, and you don’t need the same quality of players to compete in the AL Central as you do in the other divisions.  Unfortunately, Dye isn’t really good enough to push the White Sox significantly forward - 2000 is gone and it ain’t coming back and that decline happened before his postseason injury; his 109 OPS+ that year isn’t all that far from 105 in his return year of 2002 and 103 last season.  The White Sox still need to be looking in their rear view mirror a lot more than the Twins do, and this signing doesn’t change anything.

Dye, Jermaine - 2005 ZiPS Projection (31)

---------------------------------------------------------
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
---------------------------------------------------------
481 78 126 26 2 22 75 48 109 3 .262 .335 .462

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2004 at 12:04 PM | 123 comment(s)
  Related News: Chi White Sox

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   1. Kyle S Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:13 PM (#1008674)
Goodness gracious. I figured the Braves would snatch him up late in the season for about 1 year / 2 million with lots of incentives. Uh, I guess I was wrong.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:15 PM (#1008679)
God dammit, another freaking owner overpaying for crap.

A boatload of primates from here could do a lot better.

Why don't baseball owners just hire a few primates for 06?
   3. DKDC Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:17 PM (#1008684)
All of the overpaid junk is going early. I hope the O's aren't next.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:20 PM (#1008693)
What better outfielder do you guys think could be found for 2-years $10-mill ?
   5. Erik A Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:21 PM (#1008695)
I don't think this deal really deserves the wrath of other deals this offseason (thinking Glaus). Dye put up a VORP of 23 last year. UZR has him at +10 on defense for 2000-2003. So, he looks like he is worth 3 wins above replacement. This is not such a bad deal for that type of production.
   6. Urban Faber Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:21 PM (#1008696)
Whew. I was afraid the Sox were going to run out of slow right-handed hitters who hit into lots of double plays.
   7. Mikαεl Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:25 PM (#1008704)
This is a fine signing, to me. Nothing spectacular, but with the very shallow market on outfielders - Beltran, Drew, who else? - it makes sense to snatch him up.
   8. Urban Faber Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:29 PM (#1008710)
I guess that isn't a ton of money, but we're talking about the "small-market White Sox" here. Maybe it's a reasonable enough contract that they can trade him to a contender in July or August.
   9. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:30 PM (#1008715)
I think this is fine, too. It does make me hate the second trade for Carl Everett and his $4M player option for 2005 (exercised of course) even more.
   10. Kyle S Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:32 PM (#1008717)
After late May, Dye's hitting numbers were awful. The few games I saw him play on TV, he looked pretty slow and gimpy in right field, but if you guys think he's actually okay out there, I'll defer to you. Even so, I think the Zips projection looks pretty good, and that sure isn't worth 10 million over 2 years, at least to me.

Isn't Jose Cruz jr a free agent, or is he still on the 2nd year of one of those 2/6 contracts from last season (most of whom i'd rather have than dye, and that's for less money).
   11. palehose Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:32 PM (#1008718)
You project Dye hitting fewer home runs in 2005 while playing at US Cellular Field? I respectfully disagree. I can see him hitting 30 HR next year (and I don't even think Mags hit 30 in '03). This seems like a solid signing. I like the defensive make-up of the outfield now (especially with Lee improving so much last year). And now right field costs about $8 million less than last year. The real question is, where will that money go?
   12. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:37 PM (#1008726)
I don't get it. If you want an inconsistent hitter but great RF, why not sign Hidalgo? He's a few years younger and his last great year was 2003, as opposed to Dye's 2001.

More evidence that KW doesn't understand the concept of marginal value over replacement level. Why not just give Gload the job full-time? Even with his defensive limitations, there's no way that Dye provides ~$4.5M more value than Gload.

One last thought: the Dye signing is yet another reminder of how ill-advised the Freddy Garcia trade was. Jeremy Reed could have provided superior production for the league minimum over the life of this contract.
   13. White Sox Fan Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:41 PM (#1008733)
Fourth place, fourth place, clap clap clapclapclap.

Fourth place, fourth place, clap clap clapclapclap.

What I'm going to do is keep a running tally of how much the Sox are paying mediocre players next year, and when the offseason's done, compare that to what Magglio would have gotten in arbitration. Should be interesting.
   14. Buford J. Sharkley Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:42 PM (#1008738)
Does this mean that Carlos Lee is effectively traded?

The Sox have five players for four positions:

Frank Thomas
Paul Konerko
Jermaine Dye
Carlos Lee
Carl Everett

None of these five can move any further right on the defensive spectrum past RF. Either one's going to the bench, or one's traded.

I'm banking on "goodbye, El Caballo."
   15. Urban Faber Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:47 PM (#1008745)
I was just thinking that about Lee. Everett plays left and Konerko is the only real first baseman there. They still need a catcher and a second baseman.
   16. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:47 PM (#1008748)
What better outfielder do you guys think could be found for 2-years $10-mill ?

The premise of this question misses a critical point to understanding player valuation: no player at the weak end of the defensive spectrum is worth signing to a $5M per year contract.
   17. Dig!!! JMM Dig!!! Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:48 PM (#1008750)
If he wasn't seemingly overpriced, I would think Carlos Lee might look good helping to replace Dye (with Swisher moving to LF or some sort of convoluted platoon situation). Kielty for Lee and cash? Maybe throw in uber-ROOGY Bradford?
   18. Guarded By Monkeys Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:49 PM (#1008752)
The premise of this question misses a critical point to understanding player valuation: no player at the weak end of the defensive spectrum is worth signing to a $5M per year contract.

Not even Barry Bonds?
   19. Buford J. Sharkley Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:57 PM (#1008764)
But really, this move is a PR move more than anything.

It gives the feeling of aggressiveness after losing Magglio. What if we still had Reed, and chose to start him in RF at this juncture?

Even if it's the smart move, it looks weak and passive. Reinsdorf wants to look like a go-getter. That's why he overpaid.

I guess it could have been worse.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2004 at 01:58 PM (#1008766)
ortiz? ramirez? not worth $5 Million a year?

I must be misunderstanding you.
   21. Erik A Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:01 PM (#1008776)
6-4-3, your comments are absolutely ridiculous. Sure, it is fun to pick on all of KW's moves, since he doesn't seem to be the brightest GM out there. Maybe it even raises the self-confidence for a few minutes. But this seems like one of the few fair deals signed this offseason. As I said in post 5, $4.5 per year (not including the $1.5 million buyout) is spot of for 3 wins above replacement.

True, Gload is cheaper, but he is also a worse player. If you want the Sox to contend for the division next year they are going to need to get their wins from some position. Where are they going to offset the drop-off in RF if Gload is starting? And you can't say "Just sign Beltre" since I think there may be other teams involved in that bidding process as well.
   22. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:02 PM (#1008779)
Does this mean that Carlos Lee is effectively traded?

The Sox have five players for four positions:

Frank Thomas
Paul Konerko
Jermaine Dye
Carlos Lee
Carl Everett

None of these five can move any further right on the defensive spectrum past RF. Either one's going to the bench, or one's traded.

I'm banking on "goodbye, El Caballo."


Buford -

I can't speak for anything terribly recent, but I do know that when Dino-Man was with the Rangers, he was stationed in center a few times. I don't see why he couldn't play there once or twice a week for the Pale Hose, preferably behind a ground-ball pitcher.
   23. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:05 PM (#1008785)
I'm not sure I understand why Posters #1 and #2 and others think this such a bad deal. Its not a great deal, but a $9 million obligation over 2 years isn't exactly an albatross.

If you want an inconsistent hitter but great RF, why not sign Hidalgo?

I think Hidalgo will receive more than $9 mill/2 years, but I could be wrong.
   24. palehose Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:06 PM (#1008788)
But the Sox never would have obtained Garcia without trading Reed (and before we declare Reed the next Magglio, let's make sure he isn't the next Joe Borchard -- we've all seen plenty of "can't miss" prospects miss). Without Garcia in the rotation in 2005, the Sox wouldn't even be able to compete in the AL Central. If some of this money saved in right field now goes to a solid #3 starter (Clement? Perez?), then I really like the Sox chances in their division.
   25. Buford J. Sharkley Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:08 PM (#1008791)
I can't speak for anything terribly recent, but I do know that when Dino-Man was with the Rangers, he was stationed in center a few times. I don't see why he couldn't play there once or twice a week for the Pale Hose, preferably behind a ground-ball pitcher.

Yeah, but I hope to hell that Rowand isn't benched for such purposes.

If they bench Aaron for some Jurassic CF action, (which I have been exposed to, quite a bit,) I might as well kill myself.
   26. Guarded By Monkeys Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:08 PM (#1008792)
I think Everett will be a nice security blanket now in caser Big Frank isn't ready to go Opening Day. Could be wrong, though.
   27. Kyle S Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:15 PM (#1008807)
Well, I never said this contract was an albatross; I'm just surprised by it. Any contract that's only 5 million per season (including the buyout) is not going to cripple a franchise. I'm not confident that Dye is good for 3 wins above replacement. I would have thought that there wouldn't be a lot of interest in him, especially from a team that already has two corner outfielders. I would have attempted to sign him to a contract with a low base salary that would have overpaid him if he reached performance incentives. I realize that this never happens, but I can live in my fantasy world, can't I?
   28. Buford J. Sharkley Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:18 PM (#1008813)
I think Everett will be a nice security blanket now in caser Big Frank isn't ready to go Opening Day. Could be wrong, though.

That's a good point.

I think Everett is overkill. Gload is really enough of a security blanket, and is a player that is acceptable to bench, if need be.

...The Sox aren't the team to put a highly-paid player on the bench. See the Royce Clayton fiasco for anecdotal evidence....
   29. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:18 PM (#1008814)
Everett played a lot of center for the Sox on his first go-round in 2003. I don't remember him being very good, and he was blocking Rowand. Even if Everett shows up fit and healthy, I don't see him playing center often. I suppose Rowand needs a day off every once in a while, but I'd rather see Willie Harris get 10 starts in CF than Everett.

Gload is a terrible outfielder. Offensively, I think he is a decent platoon player. If the Sox trade Konerko, I wouldn't have a big problem with Gload and a platoon partner handling first. If that's the savings they need to sign Clement or Odalis Perez, I could live with that. Gload looked adequate or better at first defensively.
   30. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:21 PM (#1008822)
I'm with BJS, it's the Everett deal, part deux, that I'm still steamed about.

I'm desperately hoping that Timo Perez is not one of the backup outfielders next year, though I'm worried that they like his intangibles. Timo makes my stomach turn.
   31. bhoov Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:22 PM (#1008824)
Another average acquisition. Not horrible, not great. But maybe it's time to come to grips with the fact that this is a different market than last year. Those 2 yr./6 million dollar contracts for league average outfielders are a thing of the past. Replaced by 3 yr./21 million dollar contracts for average SP. Given that, 2 years $10 mill is probably the going rate. As far as having 5 players for 4 positions, that is probably a necessity since 3 of those are sig. injury risks (Frank, Dye and Everett). Frank may not even be ready for opening day. I think Carlos stays. This is a pretty good lineup (as long as uribe and rowand maintain their output), although heavily right-handed.

Rowand
Uribe
Thomas
Lee
Konerko
Dye
Davis
Crede
Harris

Now if only we can get Placido Polanco to play everday and platoon Willie and Crede.
   32. Urban Faber Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:22 PM (#1008826)
But the Sox never would have obtained Garcia without trading Reed (and before we declare Reed the next Magglio, let's make sure he isn't the next Joe Borchard -- we've all seen plenty of "can't miss" prospects miss).

Reed is already better than Borchard will ever be.

I guess the best part of this deal is that it ensures another season in Charlotte for Borchard.
   33. palehose Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:30 PM (#1008849)
Considering that Borchard's claim to fame at the end of his career might be the one monster home run he hit to the concourse in area in right field in 2004, I don't disagree that Reed is already better than Borchard. Still, Garcia is good. Very good. And without Reed, that trade never would have happened.
   34. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:31 PM (#1008853)
ortiz? ramirez? not worth $5 Million a year?

I must be misunderstanding you.


I posted without really finishing the thought. Obviously the elite 1B/LF/RF/DHs are worth $10M+. But, in terms of value, there isn't a continuum between replacement-level hitters for those positions and the elite. In other words, there's an absence of a "middle class" in terms of value.

The types of hitters who wind up signing $5M per year deals are guys who are clearly not elite, but slightly better than replacement-level. Whatever team signs them almost invariably suffers a winner's curse. In terms of yielding a good return on investment, these guys are losers.

Stocking a team with expensive, nonelite hitters at the weak end of the defensive spectrum is a recipe for mediocrity. The signing is particularly unsound considering that the team is not lacking for internal options. While Dye is a better player than Gload, it's a marginal difference of only a win or two. Paying $4.75M more for that extra win is foolish.
   35. Eugene Freedman Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:31 PM (#1008854)
It seems like people think every deal is bad. Sure signing a oft-injured player to what is a long term deal for a few million more than expected is a bad deal. Singing an oft-injured #3-4 starting pitcher for 3 years $21M+ is quite a bit off the charts. But signing a good defensive rightfielder with a solid bat for only two years, when your park is a hitter's paradise and he is a name to replace an All-Star you are losing for nothing, it's a decent deal. It could work out to be a bargain depending on what other corner OFers sign for.

Sure the Sox have too many righthanded power hitting basecloggers. But, given that or lefthanded, poor hitting, bad fielding outfielders, Dye isn't a bad option.
   36. Padgett Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:34 PM (#1008863)
I'm with those who think this deal isn't that bad. First, don't forget that Dye suffered silently through a thumb injury for much of last season before finally sitting to let it recover. I know it's a small sample, but after he returned in September, he hit about 360/600 for the rest of the season.

Also, UZR shows him still being quite good with the glove in RF -- he led the AL with a +14/150 last year.

Of course, the thumb injury also goes to his general expectation of health, but if he stays healthy he could definitely exceed that projection. Including defense, that's an above-average RF, which I believe is worth more than $5M/year.
   37. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:37 PM (#1008868)
But this seems like one of the few fair deals signed this offseason. As I said in post 5, $4.5 per year (not including the $1.5 million buyout) is spot of for 3 wins above replacement.

Yes, but you have a guy on the roster for the league minimum (Gload) who's worth 1.5 wins above-replacement. Is 1.5 wins really worth the $4.5M?
   38. Buford J. Sharkley Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:39 PM (#1008874)
I don't think the move is too bad.

1) It's a good PR move.
2) It would be a very good move, if the Sox roster wasn't overfilled in these areas already.
   39. Eugene Freedman Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:45 PM (#1008888)
You're giving Gload a lot of credit saying he's worth 1.5 wins above replacement. Given his defense, I would venture to guess he's the definition of replacement level.
   40. villainx Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:46 PM (#1008892)
The fact that Dye can be dh'ed at times, or any of the other players, makes it a little better. It's not like AZ signing Glaus who might be kept of the defensive field for a good chunk of time.

Dye certainly got a lot of mileage out of his few good years and 'potential' tag.
   41. Buddha Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:48 PM (#1008897)
"If that's the savings they need to sign Clement or Odalis Perez, I could live with that. Gload looked adequate or better at first defensively."

Oh come on now, you KNOW it's going to be Russ Ortiz for 3 years and $30 million! He eats innings! KDub loves that!

This signing is blah. Not great. Not horrible. Blah.

I have no idea why the Sox are so gung ho on trading Konerko.
   42. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 02:59 PM (#1008924)
You're giving Gload a lot of credit saying he's worth 1.5 wins above replacement. Given his defense, I would venture to guess he's the definition of replacement level.

Gload's below average defensively, but he's not Jack Cust. How many runs do you think he gives up on defense compared to a leauge average RFer?
   43. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:00 PM (#1008925)
Buddha, you're a one-trick pony with the KW hearts Ortiz stuff, and I don't even care if you say that you're kidding. It's just getting old. Most of the Ortiz talk has been that he's going to Arizona. Clement has said that the Sox are interested and have been in contact with his agent.

I'm not gung-ho to trade Konerko, but his value is pretty high right now. He's coming off a season where he put up big counting stats and he's only signed for 2005, so he doesn't have contract issues. If trading him: a) brings back players to fill other holes/prospects and b) gives them some flexibility to sign Clement, I'm all for it.
   44. sardonic Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:00 PM (#1008928)
Yes, but you have a guy on the roster for the league minimum (Gload) who's worth 1.5 wins above-replacement. Is 1.5 wins really worth the $4.5M?

It doesn't if you just divide, but there are other factors as well. Firstly, it presumably strengthens their bench by pushing Gload there. I don't know if the Sox have a particularly good or deep bench and it's possible that he's merely pushing another good player off, but if he's not, then he could easily put up another half-win or so's marginal value off the bench.

Also, the Sox seem fairly set at their other positions... as noted, they already have a DH, 1B, LF, CF, 3B (Crede), SS (Uribe), 2B (Harris) and C (Harris). In the rotation, they already have Buerhle, Contreras, Garcia and Garland. In the pen, they have Marte, Politte, Hermanson and Takatsu.

It seems to me like the only other positions where a significant upgrade could be provided would be C, 2B and SP. As for catchers, the ones clearly better than Ben Davis would probably be Miller (who got $7 million per year for 2 years) and Varitek (likely to be massively overpaid in terms of years and dollars). In terms of 2B, we're talking about the heavily pursued Polanco, then the likes of Tony "2 years/$4 million" Womack. Todd Walker signed a reasonable deal, but he signed before the Sox had a crack at him. And the SP market has thus far been overpriced.

Actually, the part of the deal that I think doesn't make sense is this: why would they sign an extra OF given they already have Everett, Rowand, Thomas, Konerko and Lee? That seems like a full house to me. There are only two scenarios I could see where the deal would make sense from that angle: 1) Thomas' injury is worse than has been reported and there's a good chance he'll miss significant time. 2) They are close to a deal for Lee, Konerko or Everett.
   45. Buddha Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:05 PM (#1008945)
Vince: Shoot me your email address and I'll clear all my KDub jokes with you first next time.

: )
   46. SuperGrover Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:09 PM (#1008954)
The fact that Dye can be dh'ed at times, or any of the other players, makes it a little better. It's not like AZ signing Glaus who might be kept of the defensive field for a good chunk of time.


If Thomas is healthy he will be getting ALL of the DH at bats and rightfully so.

Lee's getting moved for a SP or 2B/3B. That's the only thing that makes a lick of sense here.
   47. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:21 PM (#1008980)
Buddha, I'd just be happy for you to find a second one, but if you ever feel the need, my e-mail is in my profile.
   48. wealz Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:30 PM (#1009001)
Before AZ signed Glaus, Konerko had been rumored to be included in a three-way deal with the Yankees and D'Backs that would net them Vazquez.
   49. Buddha Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:43 PM (#1009036)
Lighten up Vince.
   50. studes Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:44 PM (#1009037)
Got to say, I personally think this is a bad deal for the Sox. They don't really need Dye (unless they're trading someone) and they overpaid by $2 million to $3 million, IMO.

I don't know about VORP, but he had a league-average year at the bat last year, in a position that should be above-average (and for which there are a lot of replacement options). Add questions about his ability to stay healthy.

Win Shares has him less than a win above replacement (using 65% replacement level).
   51. studes Posted: December 09, 2004 at 03:47 PM (#1009045)
As for catchers, the ones clearly better than Ben Davis would probably be Miller (who got $7 million per year for 2 years) and...

Sardonic, if you're talking about Damian Miller, he's getting $3 million a year. FYI.
   52. Mister High Standards Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:01 PM (#1009082)
After watching Dye this year, it is CRYSTAL clear he isn't the defender he once was.

He's a below avarege hitter for the position, with maybe but maybe average defense and below average baserunning.

An average player with health concerns isn't worth a 10m committment.
   53. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:05 PM (#1009089)
After watching Dye this year, it is CRYSTAL clear he isn't the defender he once was.

So it's crystal clear that UZR is way off and your personal observation is correct?
   54. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:07 PM (#1009094)
Buddha, I'm no Francis. It's just not a funny joke.

I did enjoy watching you defend the Percival signing -- and while I wouldn't take that position, it is defensible. But imagine having to do that with a GM who gets bashed no matter he does.
   55. Calvin Schiraldi Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:09 PM (#1009097)
Gload's below average defensively, but he's not Jack Cust. How many runs do you think he gives up on defense compared to a leauge average RFer?

Well, I saw him give up three runs in two innings against the Cubs because he was allergic to routine flyballs.
   56. Mister High Standards Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:12 PM (#1009099)

So it's crystal clear that UZR is way off and your personal observation is correct?


Yes. I have little doubt for the vast majority of player UZR does a very reasonable job of reflecting defensive ability. In Dye's case it doesn't hold water. He didn't move latterally well at all, specificly when going towards the line - a lot more balls made the gap than they should have.

But Danny I realize that can't be, because I'm talking "down" on the Great Jermaine Dye, the man your god gave INSANE dollar amounts too.
   57. studes Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:14 PM (#1009101)
So it's crystal clear that UZR is way off and your personal observation is correct?

I love UZR, but it's only a tool. I'd use it to complement personal observations. And I'd pick personal observations over one-year UZR's (if I had to choose).
   58. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:17 PM (#1009104)
Dye is still a pretty good defender. I don't see him ever putting up a good season with the bat again, though. Maybe now that he won't make a ton of money for doing absolutely nothing, he'll actually get motivated.

Thumbs down.
   59. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:18 PM (#1009107)
Yes. I have little doubt for the vast majority of player UZR does a very reasonable job of reflecting defensive ability. In Dye's case it doesn't hold water. He didn't move latterally well at all, specificly when going towards the line - a lot more balls made the gap than they should have.

How many times did you watch Dye play this year? On TV?

But Danny I realize that can't be, because I'm talking "down" on the Great Jermaine Dye, the man your god gave INSANE dollar amounts too.

I always defend the Dye signing. It was brilliant, but it just didn't work out...

Give me a break. I've listed the Dye signing as, by far, Beane's worst mistake dozens of times on Primer.

If you're going to make an arrogantly definitive statement about a player's defense, you should at least expect to have to explain your reasoning.
   60. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:23 PM (#1009111)
I love UZR, but it's only a tool. I'd use it to complement personal observations. And I'd pick personal observations over one-year UZR's (if I had to choose).

Yes, but would you say that your personal observation makes it "CRYSTAL clear" that UZR is wrong? And UZR has rated Dye as good for several years, not just one.
   61. Carl Yastrzemski, A Well-Paid Slav (GGC) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:23 PM (#1009113)
If you're going to make an arrogantly definitive statement about a player's defense, you should at least expect to have to explain your reasoning.

I thought that he did, Danny. To wit:

He didn't move latterally well at all, specificly when going towards the line - a lot more balls made the gap than they should have.

I don't know how true it is, but I think I only watched a few A's games this year.
   62. kevin Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:26 PM (#1009117)
This is a great move by the White Sox. Dye is a central division hitter all the way.

He'll kill that ZiPS projection.
   63. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:26 PM (#1009118)
I thought that he did, Danny. To wit:

Yes, he did, but then he scolded me for asking. There was no detail in the first post. FWIW, Dye was 3rd among MLB RF in ZR in 2004.
   64. Urban Faber Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:28 PM (#1009121)
I don't think the Sox will get Ortiz either. Too much money. Jason Grilli will be the No. 5 starter entering spring training, unless they decide to put Hermanson in the rotation.

But I really don't get it. Dye is sorta Magglio Lite. What happened to Ozzieball? And if that lineup in #31 is accurate and it probably is ... ugh.
   65. kevin Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:32 PM (#1009124)
I always defend the Dye signing. It was brilliant, but it just didn't work out...

For god's sake Danny. You're doing that "the operation was a success but the patient died" thing again.

Really, this worship of Beane is really ridiculous. If Billy Beane dropped a nuclear device over San Francisco using the TransAmerica building as ground zero, you would come in and say that Beane had completed the first phase of urban renewal at no cost to the taxpayers.
   66. Urban Faber Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:33 PM (#1009127)
Dye also saw a lot of lefties in Oakland with Chavez and Co. around him. The only lefty hitters in that lineup with the White Sox can't actually hit.
   67. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:33 PM (#1009128)
Kevin, I was being sarcastic. Read the next line. get a grip, man.
   68. Mister High Standards Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:34 PM (#1009130)
Danny - I expect to explain nothing to you, because time and again you have proven that you will dismiss anyone opinion that doesn't mesh with your.

As for Dye, I saw him live 11 times, and another 3-4 dozen on TV.

I saw him play far more often when he was in KC, when he was REALLY a great defesnive player.
   69. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:36 PM (#1009134)
Rauseo, I have no problem with someone saying their personal observation of a player's defense doesn't correlate to a metric's view. I have many of those discrepancies in my own observations. I would just never say that my personal observation of a player's defense is definitive.
   70. kevin Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:37 PM (#1009139)
Oops, sorry. Have to read more carefully.
   71. mgl Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:37 PM (#1009140)
I don't think this deal really deserves the wrath of other deals this offseason (thinking Glaus). Dye put up a VORP of 23 last year. UZR has him at +10 on defense for 2000-2003. So, he looks like he is worth 3 wins above replacement. This is not such a bad deal for that type of production.

I don't mean to pick on this post, but I think this is one of the worst signings so far this off-season:

His 2004 UZR was indeed good (again - as it was prior to 2002, before his leg injury) - +11. His projected UZR is +4, or a little above average. His batting has been no great shakes (albeit 2003 brought down his career average quite a bit), a little above the major league average, according to adjusted lwts. I have him projected at -2 (again per 150) in 2005, primarily because of age.

His peripherals are not good, however, and that is one reason why this is a terrible signing (why he doesn't have that much value). His baserunning is projected at -2, his arm in RF is projected at -1 and his GDP lwts is projected at -2, for a total of -5 in peripherals.

Anyway, overall, Superlwts has him projected at -10 in position adjusted runs above average, which is only 7 runs better than a replacement player. Granted, I think that may be a conservative projection, as his past injuries may have deflated many of those career totals.

However, even if his projection should be a little higher, once you include the potential for another serious injury and his age in general, this is still one of the worst signings of the off-season...
   72. Pastor Toastman (PH) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:38 PM (#1009147)
I don't mind this move too much.

Those of you who say Gload is merely "below average" in right field haven't seen him play. He's the worst right fielder I've seen play on a semi-regular basis. In fact, it's hard to say that I've "seen" him play because whenever there's a fly ball to right, he isn't even in the picture. After about 10 seconds, when the ball starts dribbling to the warning track, you'll see a guy wearing a "Gload 26" jersey chasing after it.

It makes me think that he frequents the Bullpen Sports Bar in between pitches.
   73. Ross(UPN + WB) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:45 PM (#1009159)
Just curiuos...
What would be a reasonable salary for Mr. Dye?
Please feel free to check with Beane's spreadsheet before answering.

It gets tiring to read post after post after post lambasting a team for signing a certain player. Can't anybody accept that few ballplayers will sign a 1 year/$1 million contract?
I'm sure if Beane re-signed Dye to a similar deal, it would be lauded similarly to Sir Theo's "low risk-high reward" contact with Mantei. There's more to a ballplayer than UZR ratings, DrIPS, or whatever spreadsheet specialty that Bombastic Billy James comes up with (after he's done with his lynch mob thingy).
   74. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:46 PM (#1009162)
You're doing that "the operation was a success but the patient died" thing again.

Is someone in here risking a patient's life?
   75. Carl Yastrzemski, A Well-Paid Slav (GGC) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:52 PM (#1009173)
If Billy Beane dropped a nuclear device over San Francisco using the TransAmerica building as ground zero, you would come in and say that Beane had completed the first phase of urban renewal at no cost to the taxpayers.

Beane has weapons of mass destruction?

Maybe we should have sent the 101st to the Bay area instead of the Gulf.
   76. Don't question Moses Taylor's Buymorian patriotism Posted: December 09, 2004 at 04:57 PM (#1009184)
The subject has changed a little here, but...

And without Reed, that trade never would have happened.

Is that really true? Didn't it come out that Seattle really wanted Crede instead, but KW didn't want to trade 2 everyday starters (even though Crede wasn't that good)? Not arguing here, just asking.
   77. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:01 PM (#1009206)
il PDad-dy, I've heard that, too, but then I later read that it was Reed and either Olivo or Crede, not Olivo and either Reed or Crede.
   78. Hack Wilson Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:03 PM (#1009209)
It makes me think that he frequents the Bullpen Sports Bar in between pitches.
Big deal, Babe Ruth could make it across 35th Street to McCuddys and back between batters. And he wasnlt on steroids.
   79. palehose Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:04 PM (#1009210)
PDad-dy:
I think you're right about that. But at the time, the Sox were in the chase, and I fully understood (at the time) not giving up your fulltime third baseman. In hindsight.... Heck, perhaps they can just give Crede to the Mariners now as a holiday gift. Wouldn't it be a terrific surprise to see Crede actually post some good numbers next year? That would go a LONG way to helping this Sox club.
   80. Don't question Moses Taylor's Buymorian patriotism Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:04 PM (#1009211)
il PDad-dy, I've heard that, too, but then I later read that it was Reed and either Olivo or Crede, not Olivo and either Reed or Crede.

That kind of makes more sense, but wouldn't the Sox have preferred to keep Olivo over Crede? I would have. I just believe the 2 starting everyday players thing though (although Uribe could have finished the year at 3b).
   81. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:12 PM (#1009240)
Is someone in here risking a patient's life?

Is anyone else surprised this show hasn't been cancelled yet? Not that its bad, I haven't seen it, but typically shows overhyped by FOX during the World Series tend to get axed by November (Skin, Girls Club, etc.)
   82. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:19 PM (#1009257)
I think Crede is a better bet than Olivo. Both players will turn 27 this year (although Olivo's birthday is July 15, so this will be his age 26 season, but just barely; Crede's birthday is toward the end of April). Crede's not an on-base machine (career .304), but Olivo has yet to crack .290 in on-base at the big league level. Crede also has good power potential. Catcher is tougher to fill than third base, but I think Crede's minor league record indicates his talent is greater than Olivo's. With Crede, the question is whether he'll make the adjustments that he needs to be a success in the majors.

Another reason to trade Reed instead of Crede was that the Sox have Brian Anderson, an outfielder who might be called up as soon as late summer. The Sox preferred his overall abilities (better runner, better arm, better defender, a little less OBP, but probably better power) to Reed's skill set. You can make a good case that even if Anderson is better than Reed, Reed is ready now and his on-base skills are something the Sox sorely lack. But I can also see a good case for thinking that Anderson will be a better player overall.
   83. attaboy Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:21 PM (#1009262)
It's sort of like M*A*S*H* - doctor, so good at what he does he gets away with doing things no one else could. I would like it if they could only develop him into more than the one dimensional character he has been so far, that might have started this week but I doubt the writers can see past the cliche's yet.
   84. Mark Edward's Got That Go Go Gadget Flow Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:24 PM (#1009273)
I think this move is decent, and will probably lead to Lee getting traded. His defense is good, he'll probably hit .335/.470. As MGL noted, his peripherals seem troublesome (too many GIDPs). The only reason I won't like this move is if it comes to either signing him or Polanco. I like Dye, but would much rather have Polanco.

And for those that bemoan the Garcia/Reed trade, if the Sox didn't trade for Freddy, the current rotation would be Buehrle, Garland, Contreras, Schoeneweis, and Grilli.
   85. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:27 PM (#1009285)
BP#1Fan: Small sample size :). Also, "24" was heavily hyped during the 2001 postseason, and that excellent show is still going strong. I couldn't keep up with it last year, so I'm going to have to find the time to watch the DVDs before it starts up again in January.
   86. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:28 PM (#1009288)
The signing doesn't feel that good to me, but I don't have any confidence at all in my ability to successfully predict Dye's 2005 level of production, so I guess there's a chance it'll turn out well.

If they wanted to blow a bunch of money on something, I think they could've probably gotten more bang for their buck dealing for Kendall.
   87. Pastor Toastman (PH) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:28 PM (#1009289)
As MGL noted, his peripherals seem troublesome (too many GIDPs).

Konerko will steal some of those. Unless they find a way to GIDP twice in the same inning. I wouldn't put it past them.
   88. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:29 PM (#1009291)
I should add: "Who are you working for?!?!!"
   89. Don't question Moses Taylor's Buymorian patriotism Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:32 PM (#1009297)
24 was really up and down this year. There were at least 2 outstanding episodes, and at least 3 horribly bad episodes. The 2 good ones really made up for the other ones, and needed a lot of buildup from the crappy ones to be that good.
   90. AROM Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:39 PM (#1009307)
Beane has weapons of mass destruction?

In fact, Beane has just as many nucular weapons as Saddam did. Its time somebody put a stop to him. Good job by Vlad and his army.
   91. AROM Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:42 PM (#1009313)
I'll bet Richard Hidalgo gets 2/10 in the next few days. He and Dye are the equivalents of last year's 2/6 crowd of Sanders/Everett/Guillen/Cruz with a little inflation kicking in.
   92. Danny Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:44 PM (#1009318)
In fact, Beane has just as many nucular weapons as Saddam did. Its time somebody put a stop to him. Good job by Vlad and his army.

Damn pinko commies!
   93. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:48 PM (#1009328)
BP#1Fan: Small sample size :). Also, "24" was heavily hyped during the 2001 postseason, and that excellent show is still going strong. I couldn't keep up with it last year, so I'm going to have to find the time to watch the DVDs before it starts up again in January.

Ah yes, and "The OC" bucked the trend as well.

"Welcome to the OC, #####" was the "You're risking a patient's life!" of its day.
   94. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:54 PM (#1009346)
"Good job by Vlad and his army."

Who the what now?

Unless you're referring to our hypothetical deep-cover infiltration of Kendall. Which would be wrong, of course. And plausibly deniable.
   95. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 09, 2004 at 05:58 PM (#1009355)
Vlad, I'm in your army. I think.
I don't really want to infiltrate Kendall.
   96. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 09, 2004 at 06:02 PM (#1009361)
It gets tiring to read post after post after post lambasting a team for signing a certain player. Can't anybody accept that few ballplayers will sign a 1 year/$1 million contract?

The key is to let someone else sign them to the stupid contract. Either someone else will sign him and get the ridicule or the player will make the rounds, find nobody is interested in him at his price, and have to come down in his demands.
   97. AROM Posted: December 09, 2004 at 06:15 PM (#1009379)
"Good job by Vlad and his army."

Sorry Vlad, I didn't mean you. Unless you actually are the 2004 AL MVP who led an invasion of Oakland and occupied 1st place in the West.
   98. Thomas Richard Hamilton Nugent Posted: December 09, 2004 at 06:16 PM (#1009381)
I read in Baseball America's top ten prospect review that it's possible the White Sox might trade Konerko and move Carlos Lee to first. And rumor around town is that Kenny Williams is looking to land Vazquez. Maybe a Konerko for Vazquez deal?
   99. Don't question Moses Taylor's Buymorian patriotism Posted: December 09, 2004 at 06:26 PM (#1009405)
Ah yes, and "The OC" bucked the trend as well.

"Welcome to the OC, ####" was the "You're risking a patient's life!" of its day.


That OC hype wasn't during the postseason though, since that show started before the baseball playoffs. 2003 "You're risking a patient's life!" was, of course "HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!"
   100. VG Posted: December 09, 2004 at 06:48 PM (#1009453)
Maybe a Konerko for Vazquez deal?

If they're going to take on that kind of financial commitment for a pitcher, why not just sign Matt Clement? Konerko walks after 2005 anyway.
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