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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 09, 2004

White Sox - Signed Dye

Chicago White Sox - Signed OF Jermaine Dye to a 2-year, $10.15 million contract.

On the plus side, Dye’s still a very good defensive righfielder, not a total zero offensively, and you don’t need the same quality of players to compete in the AL Central as you do in the other divisions.  Unfortunately, Dye isn’t really good enough to push the White Sox significantly forward - 2000 is gone and it ain’t coming back and that decline happened before his postseason injury; his 109 OPS+ that year isn’t all that far from 105 in his return year of 2002 and 103 last season.  The White Sox still need to be looking in their rear view mirror a lot more than the Twins do, and this signing doesn’t change anything.

Dye, Jermaine - 2005 ZiPS Projection (31)

---------------------------------------------------------
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
---------------------------------------------------------
481 78 126 26 2 22 75 48 109 3 .262 .335 .462

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2004 at 12:04 PM | 123 comment(s)
  Related News: Chi White Sox

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Page 2 of 2 pages  1 2
   101. no neck Posted: December 09, 2004 at 07:17 PM (#1009503)
The Sox have so many holes to fill, but I do like the Dye signing.

Most of the money that was saved by letting Maggs go ($14 million) was already spent on Contreas and Garcia. Getting stuck with Everett's $4 million in the present market isn't helping.

Moving Konerko and his $8 million contract and then going with Gload/Thomas at first is a possibility. The Sox have some pretty good outfield prospects so keeping Carlos Lee in left for now and then moving him take over the DH in a year or two after the Big Hurt retires might be an option also.

Still need a good lead off man, a second baseman if Uribe moves to SS, not sold on Davis/Burke behind the plate, some left hand thunder, and the spot that has kept the Sox in second place for the last two years....a 5th starter.
   102. Walt Davis Posted: December 09, 2004 at 07:41 PM (#1009568)
This is an OK signing. They're overspending by $1-2 M per year in my opinion, but by baseball standards, that's nothing. I am worried, of course, about his health which could make this a complete waste of $10 M. Still, the A's got 5.4 WARP1 out of him during his 3 year contract (and BPro puts him below average defensively) so that's almost 2 per year, which would be worth something around $4 M per year. If he stays healthy enough, that will offset "true talent" lost to aging and injury.

On his defense this year, I got to watch a number of A's games on TV (gotta love extra innings ... don't gotta love how much it costs) and he looked awful early in 2004. He couldn't run, which also showed itself on the basepaths. I thought he improved substantially as the season went on and was fine by the end of the year....but put me down in the "I ain't buying that +10 number" category.
   103. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: December 09, 2004 at 07:49 PM (#1009591)
I also watched a number of games, and I agree with Walt's assessment of Dye. He wasn't very good early in the season, but by the end he was back to well above-average, if not superlative. I don't think he was quite "awful" in the beginning, though -- maybe a bit below average.

One thing about JD is that he goes for sliding catches a lot and misses most of them. Sometimes the ball gets past him for extra bases, but extra bases are not as important as outs, so I think this warps people's views of his defense. He gets good jumps and takes good angles.

I'm buying the +10 number.
   104. Traderdave Posted: December 09, 2004 at 08:09 PM (#1009640)
Yahoo sports says that Dye verbally agreed to the deal but before he signed, another team offrered him more money. He decided to keep his word and stay w/ the Sox.

Any guesses as to which team he put off?
   105. Flynn brings the ghetto on Prince Fielder Posted: December 09, 2004 at 08:38 PM (#1009719)
The Mets?
   106. no neck Posted: December 09, 2004 at 09:31 PM (#1009819)
I read that Dye said no to Texas and Arizona after he verbally committed to the Sox. Both teams offered more money and Dye hadn't signed anything with KW yet, so he could have taken one of the offers.

Dye's power numbers should be better playing at the Cell. After reconfiguring the upper deck last year the Cell has turned into a wind tunnel.

Send it flying to the Ryan.
   107. wealz Posted: December 09, 2004 at 09:32 PM (#1009821)
A report on Chicago radio said the D'Backs and Rangers were also pursuing Dye. My guess is the Rangers are the team that offered more.
   108. karkface killah Posted: December 09, 2004 at 10:39 PM (#1009938)
And rumor around town is that Kenny Williams is looking to land Vazquez.

Noooo! This might disrupt my "Jaret Wright to the Sox for El Caballo in June" premonition I had the other night.

Which season of "24" featured his daughter getting attacked by that cougar in the woods?

That was awesome.
   109. Joe Cowley's #1 MVP choice Posted: December 09, 2004 at 11:21 PM (#1010051)
I dont see how people can be talking about how the White Sox overpayed when there are guys like Troy Glaus getting 45 million dollar contracts this offseason. I think Dye's contract was in line with the market and possibly even below. Considering that other teams came in at the last minute and offered more I think we can safely say that Kenny Williams got a good deal here. IF Dye can come back entirely healthy (the Sox do have one of the better medical staffs in baseball despite the Maggs and Big Hurt injuries last year), I think he can possibly revert to if not 2000 form, at least 1999/2001 form. His homer totals should go up by a significant margin in any event simply because the Cell has become a launching pad greater than Coors Field itself because of the way they did the roof (general speculation is that this is why the HR totals went up so much). Why is 30 homers out of the question if healthy? I dont see why it would be.

The fact is the White Sox did not have enough money to go get anyone in the higher tier of outfielders and they needed to do this for both baseball and PR purposes. This allows Konerko to be traded more easily or possibly Lee, but I'd prefer PK by a lot be the one traded.
   110. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: December 09, 2004 at 11:28 PM (#1010061)
Unfortunately for the White Sox, 1b and lf aren't positions that are exactly in high demand... what could they get for Konerko or Lee? Something they need? I doubt they could get a decent sp, and teams don't usually have extra adequate shortstops or second basemen lying around either.
   111. Urban Faber Posted: December 10, 2004 at 02:46 AM (#1010335)
"We have very few dollars right now," Williams said. "Maybe enough for a bench player. If we make an impact signing, we'll have to move salary in another area."
   112. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: December 10, 2004 at 03:41 AM (#1010366)
Do they really expect people to believe that? It's Chicago, for God's sake!
   113. Urban Faber Posted: December 10, 2004 at 03:55 AM (#1010382)
Indeed they do.

So, the White Sox will likely enter 2005 without a real catcher, second baseman and with Joe Crede at third. Sounds like fun.
   114. RickG Posted: December 10, 2004 at 10:00 AM (#1010728)
Oh, I wish I were able to reach some of these threads -- especially about my Sox -- before 113 posts.

I have a crazy theory about signings like this one, this year. I think replacement level is about to get tossed out the window.

We know many baseball players used steroids. We do not know how many. IF a significant drug-testing plan is put into action...AND players stop taking drugs because of it...THEN replacement level will decrease because the top end will decrease.

But a player like Dye who is not on steroids (assuming)...his numbers won't go down. Suddenly, 25 homers doesn't look so bad. Suddenly, this deal becomes better than average.

Yes, my cup is half full, but not half full with a drug sample....
   115. Urban Faber Posted: December 10, 2004 at 11:56 AM (#1010861)
That may be, RickG. And I think Dye has a chance to put up better numbers in a hitting environment more to his liking. But the lineup may not help him as much as Oakland's so it could be a wash.

But like Albert Belle in 1997, I don't think Dye makes the team better. They still have huge weaknesses that are not going to be addressed now, aside from creating other weaknesses elsewhere to do so.
   116. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 10, 2004 at 01:17 PM (#1011016)
"Welcome to the OC, ####" was the "You're risking a patient's life!" of its day.

God I hate the OC.

What does the OC stand for? ONLY CAUCASIANS?
   117. preterite Posted: December 12, 2004 at 09:50 PM (#1016040)
if anyone is a fanboy apologist of Dye the past few seasons it is I. Why? 'cause i'm an A's fan who is clouded by foggy judgement. :*)

no really, any regular a's primate poster has justifiably slammed dye (and by extension beane) re: contract the past several seasons, so any misgiving about this white sox contract is telegraphed as awful off the cuff.

my 2 cents: dye's RF defense 2004 was unequivocally SUBPERB...anecdotally of course...but then, MGL has conceded that diligent scouting may indeed neutralize possible inherent errors embended in UZR. a few folks rightly mentioned April '04 as the only evidence supporting poor Dye defense last year...IIRC, this amounted to 3 or 4 botched plays involving Scutoro where it was clear that the ball dropped in because of the lack of familiarity/communication the two had with one another in the wake of the Ellis injury...said botched plays had nothing to do with lateral movement or athletism or some such.

now whether this was the right move for the White Sox is of course someting entirely different given their holes...

just say'in.
   118. JDL Posted: December 12, 2004 at 10:21 PM (#1016108)
as a Sox fan (about a week late apparently), I'm unoffended by this signing. Dye is ok for this money, and it's only for 2 years. He doesn't really block Sweeney or Anderson. And as an added bonus, he blocks Borchard.

now we all have to do is wait for Jeremy Reed to...they what?!
   119. preterite Posted: December 12, 2004 at 10:27 PM (#1016119)
err, Superb. Whether Dye is a submarine sandwich i don't know..
   120. Darren Posted: October 31, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2229337)
Wow, this is a superb signing. I can totally see 30-35 HR in 05 and low-40s in 06. With that kind of production, the White Sox will probably win a World Series in one of those years (but not make the playoffs in the other). Of course, in two years, when there's a thread about the White Sox picking up this option, no one will remember what I wrote here. You'll be laughing about Dan's intro or lauding kevin's comment.
   121. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:56 AM (#2232862)
It's cruel to weigh in with the benefit of hindsight, but...

Unfortunately, Dye isn’t really good enough to push the White Sox significantly forward - 2000 is gone and it ain’t coming back and that decline happened before his postseason injury; his 109 OPS+ that year isn’t all that far from 105 in his return year of 2002 and 103 last season. The White Sox still need to be looking in their rear view mirror a lot more than the Twins do, and this signing doesn’t change anything.


God dammit, another freaking owner overpaying for crap.

A boatload of primates from here could do a lot better.

Why don't baseball owners just hire a few primates for 06?


All of the overpaid junk is going early. I hope the O's aren't next.
   122. karkface killah Posted: November 24, 2006 at 10:35 PM (#2245314)
I have no recollection of my comment (#108). Hell. . . I don't even know what it means.

Marijuana Fever: Catch It!
   123. Misirlou don't work cause vandals took the handle Posted: November 24, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2245318)
I'm not picking on Dan, but in retro, this from the intro is pretty funny:

On the plus side, Dye’s still a very good defensive righfielder, not a total zero offensively, and you don’t need the same quality of players to compete in the AL Central as you do in the other divisions.


Two years later, two pennants from the central, the third place team this year won 90, and the not a total zero offensively has hit 75 HR and driven in 206 in addition to his other hitting accomplishments.
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