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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
ZiPS Career Projection - Juan Pierre and Johnny Damon
I get a lot of requests for these. It should always be noted that projecting what happens to a player down the road is extremely speculative. I programmed my ZiPSCareer spreadsheet to, for these long-term projections, to further reduce playing time based on average and replacement level in order to get realistic-looking career-ends.
So why not test it to check on the nightmare scenario, Juan Pierre getting 3000 hits and being elected into the Hall? Admittedly, it's less worrisome than it was a year ago, but still...
ZiPS Career Projection - Juan Pierre
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Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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2000 200 26 62 2 0 0 20 13 15 7 .310 .353 .320 58
2001 617 108 202 26 11 2 55 41 29 46 .327 .378 .415 89
2002 598 90 170 20 5 1 35 31 52 47 .287 .332 .343 68
2003 668 100 204 28 7 1 41 55 35 65 .305 .361 .373 94
2004 678 100 221 22 12 3 49 45 35 45 .326 .374 .407 107
2005 656 96 181 19 13 2 47 41 45 57 .276 .326 .354 84
2006 699 87 204 32 13 3 40 32 38 58 .292 .330 .388 82
2007 668 96 196 24 8 0 41 33 37 64 .293 .331 .353 75
2008 578 71 161 21 5 0 47 35 35 56 .279 .327 .332 71
2009 590 76 167 23 7 1 53 30 34 49 .282 .324 .348 74
2010 498 64 138 19 5 0 43 26 29 42 .277 .320 .335 69
2011 395 50 105 15 4 0 33 21 23 31 .267 .311 .322 64
2012 278 34 72 10 2 0 22 14 16 21 .260 .305 .312 60
2013 188 24 48 7 2 0 15 10 11 14 .258 .304 .311 59
2014 112 14 28 4 1 0 9 6 7 8 .255 .302 .306 58
2015 76 10 19 3 1 0 6 6 7 5 .255 .303 .316 60
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Total 7492 1046 2179 275 95 13 557 435 446 615 .291 .337 .358 80
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ZiPS Career Projection - Johnny Damon
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Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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1995 188 32 53 11 5 3 23 12 22 7 .282 .324 .441 97
1996 517 61 140 22 5 6 50 31 64 25 .271 .313 .368 73
1997 472 70 130 12 8 8 48 42 70 16 .275 .338 .386 88
1998 642 104 178 30 10 18 66 58 84 26 .277 .339 .439 100
1999 583 101 179 39 9 14 77 67 50 36 .307 .379 .477 116
2000 655 136 214 42 10 16 88 65 60 46 .327 .382 .495 118
2001 644 108 165 34 4 9 49 61 70 27 .256 .324 .363 82
2002 623 118 178 34 11 14 63 65 70 31 .286 .356 .443 109
2003 608 103 166 32 6 12 67 68 74 30 .273 .345 .405 94
2004 621 123 189 35 6 20 94 76 71 19 .304 .380 .477 117
2005 624 117 197 35 6 10 75 53 69 18 .316 .366 .439 110
2006 593 115 169 35 5 24 80 67 85 25 .285 .359 .482 103
2007 533 93 144 27 2 12 63 66 79 27 .270 .351 .396 97
2008 567 94 175 36 5 13 70 62 77 24 .309 .378 .459 119
2009 509 93 152 29 3 13 83 60 71 21 .299 .375 .444 115
2010 467 83 139 26 2 10 71 55 64 18 .298 .374 .426 110
2011 413 73 121 23 1 9 62 49 54 13 .293 .371 .419 108
2012 369 64 105 20 1 7 52 44 48 10 .286 .365 .402 102
2013 304 50 84 16 1 6 42 34 38 7 .276 .353 .392 96
2014 253 41 69 12 0 4 33 28 31 6 .273 .349 .370 90
2015 145 23 38 6 0 2 17 15 17 3 .264 .340 .345 81
2016 69 11 18 3 0 1 8 7 8 1 .266 .339 .344 81
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Total 10398 1812 3004 559 100 231 1281 1086 1275 436 .289 .359 .428 103
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:15 PM | 37 comment(s)
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You know, I was going to try to defend Damon, but after looking at his career, that IS a scary scenario. 103 career OPS+ BEFORE his decline phase, and he's not really the type of player who's greatly undervalued by OPS+. He was a decent to good CF for a while, but his crappy arm never allowed him to be great. He's a good base stealer/runner, but not historically special. His OBP was better than average, but again, nothing special.
And assuming he doesn't get injured and maintains roughly the same level of performance over the next 1.5 years, he'll complete his Yankees contract with well over 2400 hits as a 36 years old. He's got a pretty good shot if he can stay healthy and not completely go in the tank. I have no idea what the writers would do it he made it to 3000.
At least with Pierre we can reasonably assume that further decline will push him into embarrassingly bad territory (even from a MSM perspective). He's apparently at an OPS+ level of about 75 now, no OF is going to maintain his PT if he drops below that level for more than a year or two.
Damon looks productive when he's OPSing an even 100- and he might be able to do that for quite some time.
Wilson got 2207 hits in 8317 PA with a .285/.326/.376 line and a 94 OPS+
Granted, Wilson won a batting title, and Pierre only has 2 seasons of OPS+ better than Wilson's average.
So, Juan is a replacement-level Willie Wilson?
It's only a nightmare scenario if you get something like Pierre making it with 2,750
The ball is projected to be wedged under the padding in the Skydome as Alexis Rios refuses to field it.
Even if Damon makes it to age 40 at his current production level, he won't deserve to be a Hall of Famer. Guys over 10,000 PAs not in the HoF include Rusty Staub, Darrell and Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Vada Pinson, Graig Nettles, Bill Buckner and Buddy Bell (Chili Davis is 4 PA short). Damon is much closer to Bell and Buckner than to the rest of those guys, and none of them will make it in without buying a ticket.
How long does Eckstein have to spend playing in Canada as the backup to Marco Scutaro before the average fan forgets about him completely? I'd almost forgotten about him until he came to town to play the Pirates this weekend.
BTW, I peg Joe Inglett as the new hero of scrappiness, if he ever goes to an All-American franchise like the Cardinals or Giants or Angels. Despite the ridiculous sunglasses he wears in the field.
if he still has his speed and projects to have a .350 OBP, it wouldnt be that painful. he'd be useful as a backup.
...if its no-range and no-baserunning it does get ugly
I wonder what manager would allow such a thing...
Yep, doing a Lazarus on Eric Gregg would be a start. That would also help keep Glavine around to get 400.
If he gets to 3,000 H, 1,800 R, 400 steals, as this projects, he'll be a lock. He sure doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer, but with his defense and offense combination, he won't be a horrible HOFer.
Developing a good knuckler
He's a good bet to finish his age-34 season with 750 hits to go or so. Damon just needs to stay relatively healthy. Favorite Toy gives him a 54% chance.
He's Lloyd Waner, who is one of the worst choices in the Hall.
He's Lloyd Waner with a higher OPS+, a huge advantage in steals (at a high %), and a 25% longer career by projection. I'm not claiming he's a Hall of Fame calibur player, but he's significantly better than Lloyd Waner.
If Damon's done as a centerfielder, it's a lot closer, though. Little Poison has 400 more games in CF than Damon. Damon's offense really doesn't play well for a corner outfielder. Of course, if Damon's done as a CF, I'd think that the fact that his offense doesn't play well in a corner makes it that much more unlikely that he'll actually make this projection - unless he's somehow managed to hit a new level of offense this season at age 34 that carries forward for the next few years.
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