BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool, v. 3.1

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Tuesday, July 10, 2007

ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool, v. 3.1

This is the updated projection tool to calculate rest-of-season projections based on 2007 ZiPS Projections and the current up-to-date stats of any player. As is generally the case with spreadsheets I release to the public, green fields are for putting stuff in, yellow fields are values the spreadsheet calculates, and gray fields are the ones you shouldn't touch unless you want to muck up a formula or something.

The only field that should be confusing is the player name at the top left. Enter in the player you want to project, a comma, and then no space before the first name. This should be apparent from the example already entered in, but it's always good to head off these questions at the pass.

Red Sox's Nation's Favoritest Middle Infielder of All Time is an ideal example. Oh, I'm talking about Julio Lugo.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Julio Lugo
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Period         AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual 2007*  299  36   59  13  1   5  40  31  43  22  .197  .273  .298
Rest of 2007  254  36   66  15  1   4  25  24  47  14  .260  .329  .374
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 Total    553  72  125  28  2   9  65  55  90  36  .226  .298  .333
2008          503  71  131  30  2   6  53  49  95  28  .260  .331  .364
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

* - Includes minor league translation, if applicable.

Enjoy!

ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool, v. 3.1 (2007)

Update

Pitcher spreadsheet done as well.

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 10, 2007 at 09:12 PM | 18 comment(s)
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1. Mark S. Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:08 AM (#2437143)

Thanks Dan. I noticed one problem. Jose Reyes is in the list twice (Rows 790 and 791) once with 676 AB and once with 274 AB.

2. J. Cross Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:16 AM (#2437157)

for me, everyone's "year-to-date" line is showing up as Lugo's year to date.

3. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 11, 2007 at 12:57 AM (#2437183)

- Cross, that's the line you have to enter (green squares)

- Mark - two Jose Reyes unfortunately and the spreadsheet is confused.

4. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: July 11, 2007 at 08:05 AM (#2437265)

Any clue when the Memorial Day DMB disk will be finished? Thanks in advance for the work!

5. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 08:59 AM (#2437286)

Yes, J. Cross, I'm having the same problem.

6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 09:24 AM (#2437302)

Thanks, Dan.

7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 09:27 AM (#2437305)

How do you do pitchers?

8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 11, 2007 at 09:31 AM (#2437307)

Also, some kind of error on Russ(ell) Martin.

9. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 11, 2007 at 10:00 AM (#2437332)

I've uploaded a fix that squashes an RBI bug.

Dan, you have to enter the to-date stats - the spreadsheet only has the projections stored.

TFC, I had to prioritize what I was doing due to time constraints. I'm a little surprised that people were that interested in a roster update as opposed to the projections, so I'll have to figure out what to do now.

10. Mark S. Posted: July 11, 2007 at 11:04 AM (#2437387)

- Mark - two Jose Reyes unfortunately and the spreadsheet is confused.

Oh yeah. I didn't think you did a projection for the other Jose Reyes.

11. azruavatar Posted: July 11, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2437561)

I don't know whether you make in season corrections but two ever so minor notes on the Cardinals:

- Micah Hoffpauir doesn't play for STL but for CHC. Jarrett Hoffpauir was recently promoted to AAA in the Cardinals system.

- John Nelson was recently traded from STL to CHC.

Also, this is a fantastic tool -- very much appreciated Dan.

12. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: July 12, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2438529)

Thanks Dan, I only asked because build 2 was never released, and I thought you were a couple mgr profiles away from having it completed on the Memorial Day update. I can continue to use build 1, so no hurry.

13. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 12, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2438537)

Thanks Dan, I only asked because build 2 was never released, and I thought you were a couple mgr profiles away from having it completed on the Memorial Day update.

I was 8 profiles away. Then I went to the beach for 5 days and after coming back, checked some things and realized that 16 of the 22 profiles I had done needed to be drastically changed.

14. Human Papelbon Virus Posted: July 13, 2007 at 08:28 AM (#2439783)

Found another bug. In the hitter and pitcher projection sheets, players on the dodgers are assigned the team abbreviation 'LAD' - however, on the page that provides team-based weightings, the dodgers are listed as 'LA'. If you don't change the 'LA' to 'LAD' dodgers players' projections won't work.

Dan, what is the easiest way to acquire a spreadsheet that contains YTD stats updated on a daily basis, in the same format as the current spreadsheet (i.e., with the player names formatted in the same way and containing all of the relevant stats)? I'd like to build on the spreadshet to make daily updates for each player without having to type in all of the data by hand every day.

Thanks for this and all of your work on ZiPS!

15. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: July 14, 2007 at 07:32 AM (#2440936)

Dan,

Why not just zip what you have done, and whoever wants it can just update the mgr profiles themselves? By the way, is the schedule fixed in v2?

16. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 14, 2007 at 12:43 PM (#2441019)

The LA/LAD problem came up because I use "LA" on my normal ZiPS spreadsheet and "LAD" as DMB's abbreviation for the Dodgers.

17. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 14, 2007 at 12:45 PM (#2441020)

Another thing I'll have fixed for next posting is a slight change to team games played. I intended to have the ability to just change a projection to a new team by having the games played as "0" but I forgot about a divide-by-zero issue, so you have to use 0.00000001 or another similar near-zero number to do that.

18. bbwsmin Posted: July 15, 2007 at 08:45 PM (#2442259)

I am assuming the public version of this tool does not project 2008 like in your examples?

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Tuesday, July 10, 2007

ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool, v. 3.1

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