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Dan Szymborski
Editor-in-Chief
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, April 07, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9, Final

This is the final 2009 build of the ZiPS projection disk for Diamond Mind Baseball. You can download it here.

The disk contains all known fixes to-date, with a very few new projections (Walter Silva, Chris Duffy, a couple of others). The disk contains "compromise" rosters in that the rosters are all 25-man but they represent the "average" expectation of what the roster will look like for the rest of the year. This is because DMB does not have an auto-manager, so things like A-Rod and 3/5 of the Angels rotation coming back would not be represented in a pure opening day build but are important events to their teams as the season goes on. For players in that situation, the playing time on the depth charts has been reduced to reflect the lower contributions. I do the same for players with teams playing the Arbitration Clock Game such as Matt Wieters and David Price.

There are a few additional cases that I had a great deal of problems wrestling with. The two most notable I can think of at the moment are what to do with Troy Glaus and Jeff Clement. I could not include Jeff Clement on the depth…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: April 07, 2009 at 11:13 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Related News: ProjectionsZIPS

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Indians - DFAed Herges

Cleveland Indians - Designated P Matt Herges for assignment.

It's not often that teams, especially ones already having problems, designate their reliever with the lowest ERA for assignment. One would think that it's an indication that the Indians are getting "over" 2009 and looking forward. The player they add, Winston Abreu, picked up in exchange for Meloan, is hardly a prospect at 32 (a Dominican 32, at that), but Abreu has very little service time, was quite good for Chiba Lotte last year and absolutely ridiculous for Durham (32 IP, 14 H, 10 BB, 49 K, 1.41 ERA) this season. That's good enough for a 2.93 translation, though he's unlikely to keep that up.

Herges will turn up elsewhere. The Indians won't get some great prospect for him, but they should probably get someone at least on the level of the guys in the Hinske trade.

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 04, 2009 at 12:37 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Related News: Cleveland

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Yankees - Acquired Hinske

New York Yankees - Acquired OF Eric Hinske from the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Eric Fryer and P Casey Erickson

Hinske wanted more playing time, so the Pirates are helping him out by trading him to a team that will probably play him even less. But at least he has a chance now to play well into October and score some jewelry. Hinske's never going to be a regular again, simply because he hasn't been able to even fake third base very well since the shoulder problems.

Neither prospect was all that highly coveted by the Yankees. Fryer had a reputation for being a decent defensive catcher, but the Yankees have much better catching prospects and he was terrible throwing out runners this year. He's not hitting at all this year and isn't young enough to have much time to turn it around. Erickson's a bit more interesting as a full-time reliever, but 23-year-old Sally League relievers are long-shots.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Eric Hinske
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date   106   18   27   9   0   1   11   17   27   0 .255 .358 .368
Rest-of-Year   131   20   31   8   0   5

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 30, 2009 at 07:12 PM | 8 comment(s)
  Related News: NY YankeesPittsburgh

Pirates - Acquired Milledge

Pittsburgh Pirates - Acquired OF Lastings Milledge and P Joel Hanrahan from the Washington Nationals for OF Nyjer Morgan and P Sean Burnett

Let's get the Nats side of the trade out of the way first. Morgan's not a good offensive player and a 350/350 season is pretty much what he can reasonable expected to top out at. As long as he's 10-15 runs better than average in centerfield, where he's likely to be when all is said and done, he's a usable player somewhere around league-average. Problem is, Morgan turns 29 in a few days and defensive aging among baseball players isn't a curve, but a line, pointing down. Sure, he could be like Mike Cameron and play good defense in center forever, but that's not typical. A team like the Nationals should see upside in every player they pick up and I just don't see where the upside is in Morgan. He's not particularly disciplined, he's unlikely to develop any power or improve defensively, so where's the payoff? I hated the Milledge trade from the perspective of the Mets, but sitting there at Thanksgiving '07, the idea that Church could possibly develop into a .875-.900 OPS player wasn't something…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 30, 2009 at 06:25 PM | 28 comment(s)
  Related News: NY MetsWashington

Monday, June 29, 2009

Mariners - Acquired Langerhans

Seattle Mariners - Acquired OF Ryan Langerhans from the Washington Nationals for UT Mike Morse.

I both love and hate challenge trades. Without the imbalances in position, contract, or short and long-term goals, I get the benefit of generally being able to declare a winner. This is more fun to write than a wishy-washy entry about how both teams did OK and got what they needed. The downside, of course, is that there aren't a lot of outs if I'm wrong.

In this case, I give the win to the Mariners. Morse is a useful player, but he's no great shakes defensively and the Nats really need some better gloves. This is what makes the trading of Langerhans so puzzling as he is an extremely accomplished defensive player at the corners and did everything he could the last 1.5 years to erase the memory of a horrific 2007 campaign. Some analysts in favor of this trade have suggested that Langerhans can replace Chavez's performance. They're wrong; Langerhans is probably better than Chavez. Chavez is unlikely to come even within sniffing distance of 2006's .779 OPS and will most likely stay under .700 for the rest of his career. As good as…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 29, 2009 at 10:54 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Related News: SeattleWashington

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Cardinals - Acquired DeRosa

St. Louis Cardinals - Acquired UT Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians for P Chris Perez and a PTBNL.

Soto injured? Ramirez injured and out? Harden actually being bad rather than injured? Ask a certain subset of Cubs fans and you won't hear any of these reasons given as to why the Cubs are 35-36. Instead, you'll hear stories about the loss of scrappy Mark DeRosa, who, along with Ryan Theriot, led the Cubs to the playoffs in 2008. That DeRosa goes to the Cardinals has to rub the salt in the wounds a little.

While he didn't quite do that, DeRosa's bat and ability to fake 2B provides a great bit of depth for the Cardinals down the stretch. While the Cards aren't truly desperate at any of the positions DeRosa plays, the organization isn't really prepared to deal with injuries, either. DeRosa will play somewhere nearly every day.

Perez is a useful reliever, something the Indians desperately need, but he's by no means irreplaceable, a league-average fastball/slider guy with occasional command issues. No idea who the PTBNL is at this point.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Mark DeRosa
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 28, 2009 at 01:33 PM | 25 comment(s)
  Related News: Chi CubsSt Louis

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Mets Turn Over Entire Roster in Single Day

OK, maybe they didn't quite do that, but a lot of well-known names coming and going today. Let's tackle them one-by-one.

Beltran to the DL. Obviously a big blow to the team, but it's supposedly just a bruise and shouldn't keep him out too long. On the plus side, if the Mets were as bad a team as you'd think how they're covered in media reports, losing Beltran wouldn't be a big deal, but it is. Ignoring for a second that perverse reasoning, F-Mart and J-Reed (doesn't really work) will fill-in for him. Martinez's recent stint with the team was obviously less-than-exciting, but he did show more power than he has so far for Buffalo and he's ostensibly just 20. 266/308/468 translation for Buffalo.

Wily Mo Pena, Bobby Kielty, and Javier Valentin released. Kielty barely played, but both Valentin and Pena were among the better hitters on the team (the team's hitting 239/299/343). One way to depress a minor league fanbase is to randomly release veteran players, so there's probably some additional reason for the releases that haven't been made public or the Mets just hate Buffalo. Maybe Pena killed David Carradine or something.

Connor Robertson and Wilson Valdez were both…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 23, 2009 at 12:05 AM | 10 comment(s)
  Related News: NY Mets

Saturday, June 06, 2009

Royals - DFAed Ramirez

Kansas City Royals - Designed P Horacio Ramirez for assignment.

The original plan was to put Ramirez adrift in the ocean and let God sort it out, but upon further reflection, the Royals realized that simply releasing Ramirez back into the wild could possibly result in their hitters getting to face him at some point, a shot in the arm that the 13th-ranked Royal offense sorely needs. Also, the MLB CBA does not allow contracts to be assigned in this manner, a clause reinforced when baseball foiled Woody Woodward's plot to have Greg Hibbard garroted at an In-N-Out Burger, his corpse then being deposited into the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

Dan Szymborski Posted: June 06, 2009 at 03:19 PM | 24 comment(s)
  Related News: Kansas City

Friday, June 05, 2009

Orioles - Released Walker

Baltimore Orioles - Released P Jamie Walker; recalled P Alberto Castillo

One notable characteristic of the Thrift and Beat Again regimes in Baltimore is that as poorly as they ran the team, there were very few monumentally bad signings. Instead, they specialized in flooding the Orioles with completely pointless signings, Jamie Walker's 3-year, $12 million contract before the 2007 season a notable example. After one positive season with the O's, Walker turned into a LNOGY in 2008, sporting an ERA near 7 and allowing lefties to hit 304/327/587 against him.

Castillo was up last year and pitched reasonable well while Walker was out with elbow problems (3.81 ERA, but platoon split the wrong way), but the team suffered from its usual case of inertia and decided to keep throwing Walker out there this year because of his $4.5 million salary, leaving Castillo to put up a 3.13 ERA for Norfolk. Castillo's certainly not going to be a huge plus for the Orioles, but at this point, they just need the pitching staff to limp through games.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Alberto Castillo
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 W    L    G  GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date     1    0   24   0   22.0

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 05, 2009 at 04:24 PM | 8 comment(s)
  Related News: Baltimore

I Give Up.  Damn You, Web 2.0

After quite a few requests, I’ve given in and created a twitter for the Transaction Oracle for moves that are generally too small to justify full blog entries.  And I will go to my grave knowing that John McCain beat me to a technological trend.

Transaction Oracle on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski Posted: June 05, 2009 at 12:26 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Related News:

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Braves - Acquired McLouth

Atlanta Braves - Acquired CF Nate McLouth from the Pittsburgh Pirates for P Charlie Morton, OF Gorkys Hernandez, and P Jeff Locke.

I think Huntington misunderstood. People were calling for McLouth to be moved to left field, not to another city. This strikes me as a mistake on the part of the Pirates. With McLouth not a free agent until 2011 and already locked up at $5 million per, the team really needed to get a real impact prospect. Now, Jason Heyward was almost certainly off-limits here and probably Tommy Hanson, too, but couldn't the Pirates have gotten at least a little higher in the Braves prospect pecking order? When you're giving up a solid, cheap player and the other team isn't giving up someone they're likely to miss, you're not getting fair value.

Morton's pretty much a 5th starter, unlikely to really develop too much beyond that. Locke has a solid fastball and probably has the highest upside of any of the players going to Pittsburgh, but he's also an A-ball pitcher and having trouble with walks this year. Hernandez has developed more than a lot of toolsy players of the type, but his power is still disappointing and his…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: June 03, 2009 at 08:13 PM | 191 comment(s)
  Related News: AtlantaPittsburgh

Saturday, May 30, 2009

White Sox - Acquired Castro

Chicago White Sox - Acquired C Ramon Castro and some cash for P Lance Broadway.

Excellent move by the White Sox here. It's not going to push the Sox to win the division, but when acquiring talent, when you can get a league-average player very cheaply, it's very hard to resist it.

This move also represents some very odd planning by the Mets. Omir Santos, the player who has made Castro "expendable" is a 28-year-old with a career .636 OPS in AAA ball who has had a couple of big homers in the majors. This is akin to winning $25 in a scratch-and-win from the 7-11 and deciding that your State Lottery has made your 401k expendable.

A.J. Pierogie is going nowhere, however, so Castro's going to see a lot of bench time. Theoretically, the White Sox could give Castro some time against lefties (Pierzynski has a career .654 OPS against them), but I wouldn't want to count on it, as the White Sox haven't shown much of an inclination to spell the Polish Prince much in the past. Of course, one could argue accurately it's been a while since the Sox had a backup catcher that you'd ever want to…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 30, 2009 at 10:11 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Related News: Chi White SoxNY Mets

Friday, May 29, 2009

Orioles - Promoted Wieters

Matt Wieters - Granted the Baltimore Orioles the right to take the field with him.

Not since Mike Mussina's debut has there been an Orioles call-up that I have been more excited about. Hopefully, the success of Wieters will encourage the Orioles to remain aggressive in the draft. For those that don't remember, Wieters was minutes from returning to college, but the Orioles came to the wise decision that they should thank every possible deity that the Pirates chose to draft Daniel Moskos for no particular reason and up their offer for the tip-top prospect Wieters by the equivalent of two months of Danys Baez's salary.

Wieters was clearly ready at the start of the season and even a not-ready Wieters would have been extremely hard-pressed to not obliterate the 210/304/327 that Gregg Zaun and Chad Moeller have combined to put up for the O's behind the plate. For delaying the arrival of Wieters, it is not known whether the O's former catching tandem will be allowed to open up their wrists in a warm bath or if they're going to be bowstringed later after Wieters's victory procession.

All kidding aside, Wieters is a tremendous hitting prospect, the first the Orioles…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 29, 2009 at 03:50 PM | 15 comment(s)
  Related News: Baltimore

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Sports Illustrated’s 400-Homer Balderdash

On CNN/SI recently, David Sabino, in his Diamond Digits column, suggested the fact that some recent sluggers have 400 home runs with less than 2000 hits was evidence of the taint of the steroid era.

The first thing that comes to mind is that Sabino was pretty lazy and actually looked at career totals. Sabino actually seems amazed that a player with 400 home runs would have fewer hits than a player with 500 or 600 home runs.

So, how many career hits does a player typically have when they hit their 400th home run? This would be the natural question raised, but the author may have been too busy loudly proclaiming the preconceived point he set out to prove in his best, strident, talk radio tone of voice, to take on the dual role of being a responsible analyst.

To take a quick look at this, I took all the 400 club members and their career hit totals on the day they hit their 400th home run. Where game logs aren't available, I calculated a rough estimate based on their end-of-season totals.

Player           Date         Career Hits through Milestone Game
Stan Musial      5/07/59      3136    
Cal Ripken       9/02/99      2969
Carl Yastrzemski 7/24/79…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 27, 2009 at 01:17 PM | 20 comment(s)
  Related News: Sabermetrics

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Brewers - Acquired Gerut

Milwaukee Brewers - Acquired OF Jody Gerut from the San Diego Padres for OF Tony Gwynn Jr.

One of the larger travesties in recent years was last year's NL Comeback Player of the Year Award. Brad Lidge was given the reward for the amazing accomplishment of "coming back" from a horrific 3.36 ERA while Gerut merely came back from not having played baseball for 3 years.

2009's been less kind to Gerut, who's off to a miserable start, and he'll serve as the 4th outfielder and primary backup at all 3 outfield positions for the Brewers. While Gwynn's off to a good start for Nashville, he's never really played well anywhere professionally and I'm surprised the Padres couldn't even get a AAA suspect who's not already going on 27.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Jody Gerut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date   112   17   25   6   0   4   14    5   22   2 .223 .256 .384
Rest-of-Year   265   37   74  16   1  11   35   23   40   4 .278 .335 .472
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total          377   54   99  22   1  15   49   28   62   6 .262 .313 .446

2009 ZIPS Projection - Anthony Gwynn
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 21, 2009 at 05:50 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Related News: MilwaukeeSan Diego

A’s - Claimed Breslow

Oakland A's - Claimed P Craig Breslow off waivers from the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins gave up on Breslow very quickly this season and while this is a good pickup by the A's, I don't want to give them too much credit as the team was 2nd in waiver-wire priority for Breslow and I'm sure they wouldn't be the only team interested in seeing if they can turn around a pre-arbitration lefty with a 2.91 career ERA in 98 games.

Given that the A's don't currently have any lefties in the bullpen, perennial ZiPS-favorite Breslow should absolutely help the team, provided he can stop walking batters again. It won't make a huge difference unless the A's start scoring more often than Marty Brennaman at a swingers club.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Craig Breslow
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 W    L    G  GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date     1    2   17   0   14.3   11   10    3   11   11  6.28
Rest-of-Year     3    2   42   0   46.3   45   21    4   23   35  4.08
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total            4    4   59   0   60.7   56   31    7   34   46  4.60

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable. 

Dan Szymborski Posted: May 21, 2009 at 10:53 AM | 4 comment(s)
  Related News: Oakland

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Mariners - Signed Nelson

Seattle Mariners - Signed OF Brad "Cornfed" Nelson to a minor-league contract.

Nelson had a terrific spring, but neglected to save any of this year's hits for the regular season. A 21-year-old top prospect can survive going for 0-21, but a 26-year-old player whose primary value is his offense frequently can't.

That being said, Nelson took a big step forward in 2008, cutting down a very long swing without losing power and putting up his best professional season. Going to the AL definitely helps his job prospects as his defense isn't adequate anywhere. The projection below is disappointing, but I still think Nelson has a lot of untapped potential, much moreso than another huge guy in a similar position and underwhelming numbers, Brad Eldred. Seattle's a good choice for Nelson (though they could've just been the only team that called). There's a lot of DH/1B competition in Tacoma, but with the Mariners using Branyan/Griffey and Mike Sweeney alternating between back problems and ineffectiveness, Nelson could sneak some at-bats if he outhits Chris Shelton.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Brad Nelson
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date    21    0    0   0   0   0

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 19, 2009 at 11:30 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: Seattle

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Tigers - DFAed Rincon

Detroit Tigers - Designated P Juan Rincon for assignment.

With Willis being activated for a start against the Twins, Rincon was the logical cut from the bullpen. Zach Miner takes Rincon's place, assuming that Willis can actually pitch. While Willis wasn't great in his starts in the minors, he was at least able to take the mound and throw 6 innings, something he hasn't been able to do for awhile. Rincon will probably resurface, but he's probably going to have to pitch in the minors for awhile, considering he hasn't gotten anybody out since 2006 or so.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Juan Rincon
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 W    L    G  GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date     1    0    7   0   10.3   12    6    2    6   10  5.23
Rest-of-Year     2    3   45   0   48.0   58   32    7   24   43  6.00
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total            3    3   52   0   58.3   70   38    9   30   53  5.86

2009 ZIPS Projection - Dontrelle Willis
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 W    L    G  GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date     1    2    4   4   24.7   25   15    6   10   10  5.47
Rest-of-Year     5    9   21  20  113.0  130   71   17   56   66  5.65
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total            6   11   25

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 13, 2009 at 11:40 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Related News: Detroit

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Cubs - Acquired Freel

Chicago Cubs - Acquired UT Ryan Freel from the Baltimore Orioles for P Joey Gathright; recalled P Randy Wells.

Ryan Freel was apparently unhappy in Baltimore, due to the club's apparent unwillingness to play players that aren't healthy enough to play on the field. Freel should be happy to sit on the DL or the bench; given his play since 2006, playing baseball is extremely unlikely to bolster his reputation as a player of baseball. The Orioles pick up Joey Gathright, whose star has fallen to the point that he's no longer putting up good 50 at-bat stretches that fool bad teams into thinking he's a full-time player.

Randy Wells is Zambrano's replacement for the time being. I was amazed, when looking up his birthday, to find out that he's only pitched in 4 games in the majors. Wells had a nice April in that coastal state of Iowa, but he's spent an entire career hanging onto the fringes of 40-man rosters for good reason, so we're probably not looking at Rick Reed.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Ryan Freel
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date    15    2    2   0   0   0

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 09, 2009 at 12:59 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: BaltimoreChi Cubs

A’s - Acquired Kennedy

Oakland A's - Acquired 2B Adam Kennedy from the Tampa Bay Rays for future considerations.

Mr. Kennedy's stock has fallen a great deal in the last couple of years. Even a modest bounceback season in 2008 wasn't enough to get Kennedy more than a starting job at AAA. Kennedy hits left-handed and can play a little defense, enough to make him a usable role player, but it's unlikely he'll ever get much of a chance to start regularly again, save for injuries.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Adam Kennedy
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date    83    9   22   3   0   2    7    9   12   2 .265 .344 .373
Rest-of-Year   252   27   65  12   1   2   23   20   25   6 .258 .318 .341
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total          335   36   87  15   1   4   30   29   37   8 .260 .325 .349

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable. 

Dan Szymborski Posted: May 09, 2009 at 12:27 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Related News: OaklandTampa Bay

Friday, May 08, 2009

Dodgers - Promoted Paul

Los Angeles Dodgers - Recalled OF Xavier Paul.

Oh yeah, LF Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games.

Kind of a big deal. Losing Ramirez is obviously a blow to the Dodgers, but they're still the best team in the division. Sadly, this also ends the Dodgers streak, going back to the middle of August last year, of actually starting the best possible players they have at every starting position. Juan Pierre looks poised to become the leftfielder, which makes a bad situation worse. While Paul could benefit from more time in the minors, I would rather give him a chance to start in left rather than go with the known terrible choice.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Manny Ramirez
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date    92   22   32   9   0   6   20   26   17   0 .348 .492 .641
Rest-of-Year   404   67  122  23   1  23   76   67   88   1 .303 .408 .536
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total          496   89  154  32   1  29   96   93  105   1 .311 .425 .555
Suspension     155   26   47   9   0   9   29   26   34   0 .303 .404 .535
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Total      341   63  107  23   1  20   67

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 08, 2009 at 02:21 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: LA Dodgers

Monday, May 04, 2009

White Sox - Signed Ward

Chicago White Sox - Signed PH Daryle Ward to a minor-league contract.

It's hard to believe that Ward's going to turn 34 this year.

Two things are working against Ward. First, while he's a pretty good pinch-hitter (a .700 OPS is actually pretty good), with modern bullpens that look like a Verizon commercial, the professional pinch-hitter is almost extinct. Still plenty of pinch-hitting going on, but not many teams want to use a roster spot unless the player can play defense as well. Ward, of course, plays defense about as well as the Italian Tenth Army.

I'm pulling this out of my ass, but I suspect that Ward faces a harder path because everyone remembers that he was supposed to be a big hitter, but never really developed. He certainly looks like a guy who should have some game-breaking power, but he really doesn't and has managed a measly 15 home runs per 162 games in the majors.

Ward started the season in the Atlantic League, so his services haven't exactly been sought after since he was cut by the Reds. It's still possible that Ward sees some time in the majors as the Charlotte Knights are rather thin in hitting…

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Dan Szymborski Posted: May 04, 2009 at 11:13 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: Chi White Sox

Saturday, May 02, 2009

2009 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

Should be pretty self-explanatory.

2009 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

Dan Szymborski Posted: May 02, 2009 at 10:34 AM | 8 comment(s)
  Related News: ZIPS

Friday, May 01, 2009

2009 ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Pitchers through April 30

Same as the hitter spreadsheet, but for pitchers. All pitchers with at least 7 innings pitched are included, with the exception of a few players that I hadn't done a pre-season projection for (that didn't come up with the hitters). Those players will be in the end-of-May spreadsheet.

Spreadsheet for Excel 2003


Projected Full-Season Leaders

Wins
Halladay - 18
Santana - 18
Billingsley - 17

Losses
Olsen - 15
Silva - 14
Arroyo - 14

Innings
Halladay - 228.1
Santana - 225.2
Sabathia - 224.2

Hits Allowed
Cook - 233
Halladay - 228
Oswalt - 225

Homers Allowed
Arroyo - 32
Pitcher of Fail - 30
Hamels - 30

Walks Allowed
Jimenez - 109
Cabrera - 106
Volquez - 101

Strikeouts
Santana - 254
Lincecum - 247
Vazquez - 227

ERA
Santana - 2.87
Lincecum - 2.98
Haren - 3.09

Dan Szymborski Posted: May 01, 2009 at 11:25 PM | 6 comment(s)
  Related News: ZIPS

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

2009, ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Hitters through April 28

This is the first build of what will be a monthly feature for hitters and pitchers, updated ZiPS projections that takes into account the changes in probability new data creates. I am also including full-season projections, which are the sum of to-date statistics and rest-of-season projections. Minimum 40 PA required for inclusion and no minor league data is considered.

Spreadsheet for Excel 2003


Projected Full-Season Leaders

Runs
Sizemore - 119
Bay - 119
Utley - 118

Hits
Reyes - 201
Cano - 196
Cabrera - 195

Doubles
Markakis - 52
Roberts - 46
Pedroia - 46

Triples
Reyes - 15
Granderson - 11
Crawford - 10

Home Runs
Howard - 47
Braun - 45
Fielder - 41

Runs Batted In
Pujols - 136
Howard - 133
Braun - 133

Walks
Dunn - 116
Bay - 104
Cust - 104

Strikeouts
Howard - 183
Reynols - 183
Davis - 178

Stolen Bases
Reyes - 58
Ellsbury - 53
Taveras - 45

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 29, 2009 at 12:36 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Related News: ZIPS

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tigers - DFAed Williamson

Detroit Tigers - Designated P Scott Williamson for assignment.

No longer traipsing through the verdure, the hurler's reverie approaches it's terminus, crushed as the skulls of the ancients upon the dewdrops of history. No longer basking in the foreday of this mortal coil, the heart no longer pumping ichor through the container of the soul, Aeneas must depart, searching for his animus. As William Jennings Bryan once said, “Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice: It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved.” Rest in Elysium, noble Tristram.

- Unknown, possibly Curt Smith

2009 ZiPS Projection - Scott Williamson
--------------------------------------------------------------
               W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO    ERA
--------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date   0   0   5   0    5   11    6   0   4   3  10.80    
Rest-of-Yr     1   2  26   0   26   30   17   4  14  21   5.88 
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total          1   2  31   0   31   41   23   4  18  24   6.68 
--------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-date and totals include minor-league translations, if applicable
 

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 28, 2009 at 10:43 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Related News: Detroit

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Mets - Signed Pena

New York Mets - Signed OF Willy Mo Pena to a minor-league contract.

Why Willy? You only get to be "Wily Mo" if you're going to actually pronounce that utter coolness that is "Wily Mo" on a regular basis. "Willy Mo" sounds like the name of a dirt farmer with stacks of old Ballantine Beer cans on his shootin' truck parked on the lawn. Wily Mo? Wile E. Coyote's older, competent brother who feasts on game birds and port all year 'round.

Pena has had an interesting career curve, being a useful player at 22 and just hanging onto his professional career at age 27. Whether it's the Dominican Republic Birth Certficate© or the weight he's put on (Pena is still listed at 6'3" 215 on B-R!), Pena's pretty much reached the nadir of his career. This isn't even one of those minor league contracts where one expects the major leaguer to be called up as soon as he's in shape, as Pena's probably going to be pretty low on the depth chart in Buffalo.

There's still time for Pena to turn his career around, but he's not really even a suitable role player at this point. Even if he can't…

Read More ...
Dan Szymborski Posted: April 21, 2009 at 02:15 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: NY Mets

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Pirates - Acquired Young

Pittsburgh Pirates - Acquired OF Delwyn Young from the Los Angeles Dodgers for future considerations.

Once it became clear that Young didn't have a future as second baseman, the Dodgers pretty much lost interest in him. He hung around the Dodgers after some injuries, but played sparingly and started the season back at Albuquerque. Young probably won't ever be deserving of a starting role, but there's no reason he can't be a valuable role player (and play 2B in an emergency) for the next 5-6 years. He's certainly a better player than Juan Pierre.

For the Pirates, it doesn't strike me as a great fit, though Young is certainly worth a flier. Young should really be playing in the minors, what with the Pirates having a leftfielder starting in center and, including Young, five outfielders on the roster that should be 4th-5th outfielders.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Delwyn Young
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Period         AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date    9   0    1   0  0   0   0   1   2   0  .111  .200  .111   
Rest-of-Yr    361  40   91  25  1   8  41  24  71   2  .252  .301  .393  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total         370  40   92  25  1   8

Read More ...
Dan Szymborski Posted: April 16, 2009 at 11:46 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Related News: LA DodgersPittsburgh

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Red Sox - Claimed Denker

Boston Red Sox - Claimed IF Travis Denker off waivers from the San Diego Padres

The Red Sox picked up Denker mainly to add to some backup infielder depth that has been tested with Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo being on the DL early on. The issues with Lowrie and Lugo aren't expected to be worries past the short-term, so Denker may end up with another organization in the next couple of months. Denker's not a bad guy to have around, but his usefulness to the Red Sox is limited at the moment with Gil Velazquez and Nick Green having played shortstop regularly.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Travis Denker
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Period         AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date    4   1    1   0  0   1   2   0   2   0  .250  .250 1.000  
Rest-of-Yr    436  50  107  26  1  10  50  41  67   5  .245  .316  .378
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total         440  51  108  26  1  11  52  41  69   5  .245  .315  .384
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-date and totals include minor-league translations, if applicable
 

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 15, 2009 at 01:53 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Related News: Boston

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk Emergency Update

Sometimes, a final disk isn't quite a final disk.

Rod Miller has informed me of an extremely serious error in the final disk. I have Randy Johnson's splits reversed, causing him to be tougher against righties than lefties. I've uploaded a new copy of the final disk here which fixes this error. I've also fixed Madison Bumgarner's first name from Madixon to Madison, though that's a very small fix.

To leagues already running, please simply edit Randy Johnson's splits at the earliest possible convenience if you haven't noticed it already.

image

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 15, 2009 at 12:47 PM | 12 comment(s)
  Related News: ZIPS

 

 

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