Next Up: Texas Rangers, Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Stanton      R    RF   22   .267 .361 .549 156 546  87 146  33   5  37  97  76 169   6   4  140
Jose Reyes        B    SS   29   .302 .353 .471 118 497  78 150  28  13  10  46  40  50  33   8  119
Hanley Ramirez    R    3B   28   .283 .365 .459 132 501  88 142  27   2  19  74  60  94  30  11  119
Logan Morrison    L    LF   24   .261 .360 .456 133 491  71 128  31   7  17  74  74 105   3   3  117
Gaby Sanchez      R    1B   28   .270 .348 .436 146 525  69 142  31   1  18  73  61  91   6   1  109
Chris Coghlan     L    CF   27   .264 .335 .392 118 462  69 122  27   4   8  42  45  85  13   7   94
Omar Infante      R    2B   30   .282 .324 .383 130 472  52 133  20   5   6  47  30  58   4   3   89
Bryan Petersen    L    CF   26   .259 .334 .379 144 483  61 125  23   4   9  39  52 112  12   7   91
Emilio Bonifacio  B    SS   27   .263 .326 .347 146 524  76 138  21   7   3  34  50 120  31  10   81
Donnie Murphy     R    SS   29   .226 .287 .428  55 159  23  36  10   2   6  22  11  44   0   0   89
Terry Tiffee      B    1B   33   .269 .295 .399  57 223  26  60  15   1   4  22   8  30   0   1   84
John Buck         R    C    31   .239 .309 .391 114 381  39  91  17   1  13  52  35 105   0   1   86
Alex Romero       L    RF   28   .258 .314 .353 121 400  46 103  20   3   4  43  28  59   6   3   79
Kyle Jensen       R    LF   24   .232 .296 .380 129 482  49 112  19   2  16  59  41 174   3   0   80
Jorge Padilla     R    RF   32   .263 .325 .342 112 377  48  99  16   1   4  31  30  69  10   6   79
Matt Dominguez    R    3B   22   .244 .305 .375 148 544  59 133  31   2  12  75  41 106   0   2   81
Greg Dobbs        L    3B   33   .250 .293 .364 114 280  27  70  14   0   6  31  17  57   1   0   75
Scott Cousins     L    RF   27   .234 .287 .372 105 312  41  73  14   4   7  36  23  89   9   4   75
Josh Kroeger      L    CF   29   .237 .299 .359 110 409  46  97  21   1   9  47  33  74  11   6   76
Aaron Rowand      R    CF   34   .236 .290 .370 114 373  45  88  19   2   9  36  19  97   3   3   75
Mike Cervenak     R    1B   35   .250 .289 .360 119 436  47 109  22   1   8  47  20  66   2   2   73
Chris Aguila      R    RF   33   .221 .284 .370 117 411  43  91  20   1  13  43  34 133   5   2   74
Donovan Solano    R    2B   24   .250 .288 .336 135 440  47 110  25   2   3  34  22  75   3   0   67
Luke Montz        R    C    28   .210 .301 .347 103 352  38  74  18   0  10  47  44 112   3   2   73
Cole Armstrong    L    C    28   .235 .289 .354  84 277  27  65  15   0   6  29  21  69   0   1   71
Gil Velazquez     R    SS   32   .243 .290 .335 112 382  41  93  17   3   4  29  24  74   8   3   67
Austin Kearns     R    LF   32   .220 .326 .323  80 232  28  51  10   1   4  19  31  71   1   2   75
Brett Hayes       R    C    28   .229 .276 .356  73 205  23  47  11   0   5  21  13  58   1   1   68
Orlando Mercado   R    C    27   .240 .306 .313  88 288  31  69  12   0   3  30  28  51   1   2   67
Alfredo Amezaga   B    SS   34   .232 .296 .304  66 194  20  45   9   1   1  23  16  38   2   1   61
Shawn Bowman      R    3B   27   .218 .263 .350  97 357  36  78  16   2   9  30  19 123   2   2   63
Ramon Vazquez     L    2B   35   .229 .302 .295  74 227  23  52  10   1   1  23  23  50   1   1   61
Kevin Mattison    L    CF   26   .208 .276 .306 129 509  67 106  16   8   6  35  39 163  31  11   56
Clint Sammons     R    C    29   .206 .272 .325  61 194  21  40   8   0   5  22  16  51   3   1   59
Nick Green        R    SS   33   .216 .267 .323 112 384  36  83  21   1   6  40  22  97   2   3   58
Chris Gutierrez   R    SS   28   .208 .303 .270 115 400  46  83  16   3   1  31  52 121   4   2   56

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Stanton                                                 VG/111  PO/113  VG/120
Jose Reyes                                            AV/94
Hanley Ramirez                               AV/107   FR/89
Logan Morrison                FR/98                          PO/105
Gaby Sanchez                  AV/91          PO/123
Chris Coghlan                         FR/94  FR/102           FR/88   FR/71
Omar Infante                          AV/88  VG/105  VG/108  AV/110  FR/108  AV/108
Bryan Petersen                                                AV/73  AV/112   AV/73
Emilio Bonifacio                     FR/112  AV/104  FR/107   AV/98  FR/121  AV/105
Donnie Murphy                        AV/114  AV/100   AV/97
Terry Tiffee                 FR/105  PO/101   AV/91
John Buck                FR
Alex Romero                                                   FR/94  FR/133  FR/123
Kyle Jensen                  FR/112                          FR/163          FR/163
Jorge Padilla                AV/119                           AV/81  PO/156  FR/185
Matt Dominguez                                VG/94
Greg Dobbs                   AV/110          FR/107           FR/95          FR/110
Scott Cousins                                                 VG/88  VG/111   VG/84
Josh Kroeger                 AV/126                          FR/108   PO/83  FR/108
Aaron Rowand                                                 VG/109   VG/56  VG/117
Mike Cervenak                 FR/98          PO/106          FR/106          PO/108
Chris Aguila                                                 AV/121  FR/121  AV/111
Donovan Solano                       VG/110   AV/90  PO/126
Luke Montz               VG  FR/107          FR/118          FR/112
Cole Armstrong           AV
Gil Velazquez                AV/114   FR/88   AV/94  FR/108  AV/119
Austin Kearns                                                FR/108   PO/97   AV/82
Brett Hayes              AV  AV/118
Orlando Mercado          AV  AV/109          PO/117
Alfredo Amezaga               AV/85   FR/85   FR/85   AV/85  AV/100  AV/135
Shawn Bowman                 AV/105          AV/134
Ramon Vazquez                        AV/100   PO/93  PO/103
Kevin Mattison                                               VG/104  VG/134  VG/101
Clint Sammons            VG                  PO/115
Nick Green                            FR/98  AV/103  FR/121  FR/109  FR/117  FR/115
Chris Gutierrez                      AV/105  VG/105  AV/105

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Josh Johnson      R      28     2.66     8    3   20   20   128.7  108   38    7   35  123   151
Anibal Sanchez    R      28     3.67    11    8   29   29   174.3  164   71   15   63  159   110
Mark Buehrle      L      33     3.69    11    9   27   27   178.0  186   73   17   40  100   109
Javier Vazquez    R      35     3.75    11    9   27   26   161.0  148   67   19   47  147   107
Carlos Zambrano   R      31     4.20     8    8   27   23   137.0  133   64   13   64  115    96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Ricky Nolasco     R      29     4.21    11   11   29   29   181.7  192   85   21   39  152    95
Chad Gaudin       R      29     4.39     5    5   31   11    82.0   83   40    8   35   71    91
Wade LeBlanc      L      27     4.40     9   10   29   28   163.7  168   80   19   55  124    91
Alex Sanabia      R      23     4.44     4    5   20   18    93.3  102   46   11   21   53    91
J.D. Martin       R      29     4.60     5    6   25   18   105.7  115   54   15   25   66    87
Tom Koehler       R      26     5.05     7   10   26   26   132.0  142   74   15   69   93    80
Elih Villanueva   R      25     5.14     7   11   27   27   154.0  179   88   21   50   87    78
Sean West         L      26     5.25     6    9   19   19    97.7  112   57   11   48   66    76
Omar Poveda       R      24     5.58     5    8   26   26   137.0  161   85   19   63   88    72
Brad Hand         L      22     5.61     7   13   29   28   142.7  156   89   22   90   94    72
Robert Ray        R      28     5.69     3    5   14   13    68.0   77   43   11   35   46    71
Mark McLemore     L      31     5.86     2    3    7    6    27.7   32   18    3   19   14    69
Chad James        L      21     5.91     6   12   25   25   120.3  147   79   15   67   80    68
Dallas Trahern    R      26     6.03     3    6   18   13    77.7   98   52    9   40   33    67
Jeff Allison      R      27     6.88     3    9   28   14    87.7  122   67   16   38   34    58

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Heath Bell        R      34     3.02     5    2   61    0    59.7   50   20    4   23   62   133
Randy Choate      L      36     3.55     2    1   63    0    33.0   28   13    3   15   34   113
Edward Mujica     R      28     3.58     6    4   63    0    75.3   70   30   10   15   68   112
Jose Ceda         R      25     3.62     3    2   50    0    54.7   46   22    5   28   61   111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Juan Oviedo       R      28     3.76     4    3   69    0    64.7   59   27    8   23   60   107
Steven Cishek     R      26     3.92     4    3   53    0    66.7   62   29    4   34   55   103
Ryan Webb         R      26     3.92     4    4   62    0    66.7   68   29    5   25   47   103
Michael Dunn      L      27     3.96     4    4   61    0    63.7   52   28    6   44   73   101
Chris Hatcher     R      27     4.08     1    1   35    0    35.3   33   16    4   17   33    99
Beau Jones        L      25     4.31     2    2   42    1    62.7   59   30    5   37   55    93
Rob Delaney       R      27     4.42     5    6   59    0    73.3   74   36    9   29   58    91
Daniel Jennings   L      25     4.53     3    4   44    0    55.7   57   28    4   33   44    89
Todd Doolittle    R      29     4.66     3    3   26    3    48.3   50   25    6   23   40    86
Peter Andrelczyk  R      26     4.70     5    6   46    1    67.0   69   35    7   35   53    85
Arquimedes CaminerR      25     4.80     1    2   22    0    30.0   29   16    3   24   29    84
Sandy Rosario     R      26     4.83     3    4   53    0    69.0   75   37    8   29   54    83
Evan Reed         R      26     4.93     1    1   31    0    34.7   36   19    3   23   28    81
Chris Sampson     R      34     5.00     3    4   33    8    72.0   86   40    8   20   39    80
Mariano Gomez     L      29     5.09     3    4   27    1    40.7   44   23    4   22   23    79
Adalberto Mendez  R      30     5.28     3    5   29    9    73.3   78   43    9   46   57    76
Ramon Benjamin    L      25     5.80     3    5   40    0    54.3   60   35    7   42   40    69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Jose Reyes           .290  .337  .431  2218  9442  1441  2736   471   153   186   871   677   927   608   103
Mike Stanton         .261  .365  .517  2629  9051  1435  2363   522    85   541  1564  1410  2638    94   133
Hanley Ramirez       .286  .360  .458  2061  7946  1345  2271   450    42   279  1047   865  1332   427   116
Logan Morrison       .252  .353  .438  1736  6440   888  1622   392    94   207   907   978  1334    35   111
Omar Infante         .275  .317  .383  1601  5558   633  1528   249    54    82   546   349   773    66    87
Aaron Rowand         .267  .324  .424  1597  5156   705  1377   307    21   153   610   298  1104    73    94
Gaby Sanchez         .265  .341  .420  1340  4807   591  1273   283    11   147   640   533   753    41   103
Chris Coghlan        .265  .332  .389  1168  4626   675  1226   274    35    76   403   422   780    97    92
John Buck            .238  .302  .397  1458  4871   505  1161   237    15   168   644   388  1217     4    85
Austin Kearns        .252  .348  .409  1122  3730   534   939   194    14   122   502   488   935    32   100

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mark Buehrle          236  188    0    3.91  589  564     3753 4020 1632  407  870 2085    112
Javier Vazquez        227  216    0    4.19  613  597     3785 3694 1764  496 1060 3357    103
Carlos Zambrano       174  132    0    3.87  497  432     2724 2475 1170  247 1259 2284    110
Ricky Nolasco         144  136    0    4.45  388  370     2303 2464 1137  291  522 1914     92
Josh Johnson          142   72    0    3.04  348  337     2173 1938  734  148  642 1993    134
Anibal Sanchez        133  115    0    3.83  385  384     2273 2197  966  213  877 2002    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Stanton      RF     62%  23%   9%   5%   2%      Tom Brunansky    Tony Conigliaro       Mark McGwire
Jose Reyes        SS     79%  14%   6%   1%   0%     Carlos Guillen      Rafael Furcal      Jimmy Rollins
Hanley Ramirez    3B     45%  28%  14%   8%   4%          Ken Boyer        Toby Harrah        Ian Kinsler
Logan Morrison    LF     19%  33%  20%  16%  12%           Max West     Mike Stenhouse    Steve DeAngelis
Gaby Sanchez      1B      6%  21%  23%  33%  17%     Ed Kirkpatrick          J.T. Snow         Ryan Garko
Chris Coghlan     CF      6%  13%  28%  32%  21%        Bill Virdon       Mike Kingery        Roy Johnson
Omar Infante      2B      7%  10%  15%  26%  42%       Manny Trillo      Carlos Garcia        Jim Gantner
Bryan Petersen    CF      4%   9%  23%  33%  31%         Jacob Cruz        Rich Becker        Tommy Gregg
Emilio Bonifacio  SS      8%  16%  29%  27%  21%      Jose Vizcaino        Pat Listach      Freddie Patek
Donnie Murphy     SS      9%  14%  27%  28%  22%      Caonabo Cosme     Corey Erickson        Pedro Lopez
Terry Tiffee      1B      0%   1%   2%  10%  86%     Larry Biittner        Glenn Adams       Dusty Wathan
John Buck         C       5%  17%  22%  30%  25%           Al Lopez       Alan Knicely     Kelly Stinnett
Alex Romero       RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%         Tim Leiper         Jake Weber     Ricardo Nanita
Kyle Jensen       LF      0%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Eddie Vargas       Joe Vitiello       Josh Bonifay
Jorge Padilla     RF      1%   1%   2%   6%  91%        Gene Clines     Jason Michaels         Jim Eppard
Matt Dominguez    3B      1%   3%   7%  16%  73%    Terry Jorgensen         Gary Scott          Mike Bell
Greg Dobbs        3B      1%   1%   5%  13%  80%          Wes Helms    Mike Pagliarulo         Garth Iorg
Scott Cousins     RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%        Jalal Leach        John Skurla     Andy Tomberlin
Josh Kroeger      CF      1%   2%   7%  20%  70%       Phil Dauphin   Jason Fitzgerald      Damon Hollins
Aaron Rowand      CF      0%   1%   4%  16%  79%   Darrell Whitmore       Chad Mottola         Emil Brown
Mike Cervenak     1B      0%   0%   1%   4%  96%       Roberto Pena         Bill Stein         Ray Knight
Chris Aguila      RF      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%   Darrell Whitmore       Jerry Martin      Alan Cockrell
Donovan Solano    2B      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%     Jorge Velandia    Alvaro Espinoza    Joshua Lansford
Luke Montz        C       1%   4%   9%  25%  61%     Jeff Ontiveros        Jeff Mathis         Bill Hayes
Cole Armstrong    C       2%   4%   8%  23%  64%        Craig Tatum   Alberto Castillo   Brandon Marsters
Gil Velazquez     SS      1%   2%   6%  17%  74%        Casey Smith        Jose Olmeda       Leo Durocher
Austin Kearns     LF      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Junior Spivey        Dustan Mohr        Chris Sheff
Brett Hayes       C       1%   2%   5%  19%  73%   Brandon Marsters        Chris Curry         Jim Horner
Orlando Mercado   C       0%   1%   3%  12%  84%        Raul Chavez         David Duff       Mike Nickeas
Alfredo Amezaga   SS      0%   1%   4%  11%  84%      Willy Miranda     Chris Petersen    Alfredo Griffin
Shawn Bowman      3B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%         Aaron Herr    Juan Richardson       Raul Tablado
Ramon Vazquez     2B      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%        Dal Maxvill         Kevin Baez       Jeff Branson
Kevin Mattison    CF      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%        Gary Varsho       Tarrik Brock          Eric Reed
Clint Sammons     C       1%   2%   2%   7%  87%    Paul Chiaffredo          Tom Nieto        Dave Ullery
Nick Green        SS      1%   0%   2%   5%  92%      Pete Mackanin          Ray Oyler         Jason Wood
Chris Gutierrez   SS      0%   0%   0%   3%  96%         Drew Niles    Douglas Bernier       Darrin Duffy

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Josh Johnson      SP      92%     3%     5%     Alejandro Pena    Bret Saberhagen    Scott Sanderson
Heath Bell        RP      62%    33%     5%         Jay Howell      Skip Lockwood         Dave Smith
Randy Choate      RP      34%    42%    24%        Tony Fossas      Trever Miller       Mark Guthrie
Edward Mujica     RP      29%    56%    15%       Bruce Walton      Mark Huismann      Jose Melendez
Jose Ceda         RP      33%    46%    21%       Eric Cammack       Ryan Bukvich       Steve Sharts
Anibal Sanchez    SP      51%    44%     5%        Jim Beattie     Kirk McCaskill    Vicente Padilla
Mark Buehrle      SP      50%    40%    10%        Paul Minner           Jim Kaat         Geoff Zahn
Javier Vazquez    SP      46%    48%     6%        Mark Leiter        Mike Krukow       Mike Mussina
Juan Oviedo       RP      24%    50%    25%       La Marr Hoyt      Brian Sanches          Pete Ladd
Steven Cishek     RP      19%    56%    25%       Mike Schultz       Andy Shipman        Clay Bryant
Ryan Webb         RP      14%    53%    33%     David Wilhelmi    Rafael Montalvo       Daryl Irvine
Michael Dunn      RP      15%    46%    39%      Ricky Pickett        Ron Villone    Armando Almanza
Chris Hatcher     RP      20%    39%    42%      Scott Gentile       Jason Bulger         Jose Veras
Carlos Zambrano   SP      18%    58%    23%           Pat Rapp    Vicente Padilla         Bobby Witt
Ricky Nolasco     SP      17%    60%    23%         David Bush   Dennis Eckersley          Jose Lima
Beau Jones        RP       9%    43%    48%       Brian Snyder      Scott Wiggins     Carlos Vasquez
Chad Gaudin       SP       6%    41%    53%      Steve Shields        Mike LaCoss         Mike Ayers
Wade LeBlanc      SP      11%    58%    31%        Rick Krivda      Glenn Dishman      Lance Painter
Rob Delaney       RP       4%    35%    60%       Rob Stanifer      Joseph Haines     Rick Heiserman
Alex Sanabia      SP      16%    46%    38%     Dave Telgheder      Jose Martinez        Gil Heredia
Daniel Jennings   RP       4%    35%    61%         Gary Wayne       Mike Venafro       Brian Snyder
J.D. Martin       SP      12%    40%    48%    Ryan Hawblitzel        Kris Wilson        Matt Ginter
Todd Doolittle    RP       6%    26%    68%       Bo Donaldson       Rick Luecken       Jesus Colome
Peter Andrelczyk  RP       3%    27%    70% Anastacio Martinez      Jordan DeJong        Steve Hoeme
Arquimedes CaminerRP       8%    29%    64%         Josh Banks         Jeff Smith    Rafael Pimentel
Sandy Rosario     RP       2%    25%    73%      Danny Rueckel   Jamie Brewington       Chris Mabeus
Evan Reed         RP       6%    22%    72%         Jeff Smith       Pete Sikaras       Steve LaRose
Chris Sampson     RP       3%    18%    79%      Jose Bautista          Mark Ross      Mickey Weston
Tom Koehler       SP       1%    26%    73%       Don Robinson        Jared Wells      Brett Roberts
Mariano Gomez     RP       3%    21%    76%        Bryan Clark         Todd Rizzo          Ted Wills
Elih Villanueva   SP       0%    17%    82%          Bill King    Cameron Reimers     Andrew Baldwin
Sean West         SP       1%    17%    82%          Phil Coke      Ben Kozlowski      Charlie Hough
Adalberto Mendez  RP       1%     9%    91%   Jarod Juelsgaard        Steve Green            Ken Ray
Omar Poveda       SP       0%     6%    94%       David Pauley        Jim Johnson         Rick Bauer
Brad Hand         SP       0%     4%    96%        Tom Fischer       Shawn Bryant         Tom Singer
Robert Ray        SP       1%     8%    91%      Chris Beasley    Doug Gogolewski       Kerry Taylor
Ramon Benjamin    RP       0%     4%    96%        Erick Burke        Carmen Cali     Julio Guerrero
Mark McLemore     SP       5%    16%    79%      David Manning         Jim Abbott          Dan Smith
Chad James        SP       0%     3%    97%       Larry Thomas     Bruce Lockhart         Mark Freed
Dallas Trahern    SP       0%     4%    96%       Kevin Hodges        Andy Larkin     Edwardo Sierra
Jeff Allison      SP       0%     0%   100%      Brian Sweeney           Dave Gil    Scott Shoemaker

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Stanton            12%      31%      75%      10%      11%      77%      47%       0%
Jose Reyes              53%      23%      24%       1%      67%       2%      13%      55%
Hanley Ramirez          26%      35%      20%       1%       0%       7%      14%      40%
Logan Morrison           5%      30%      14%       3%      25%       3%       9%       0%
Gaby Sanchez            10%      15%       5%       4%       0%       3%       3%       0%
Chris Coghlan            6%       6%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       3%
Omar Infante            24%       3%       1%       0%       7%       0%       1%       0%
Bryan Petersen           4%       6%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Emilio Bonifacio         7%       4%       0%       0%      26%       0%       0%      52%
Donnie Murphy            2%       1%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Terry Tiffee            18%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John Buck                1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Alex Romero              4%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kyle Jensen              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Jorge Padilla            7%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Matt Dominguez           1%       1%       1%       5%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Greg Dobbs               4%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Scott Cousins            1%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Kroeger             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Aaron Rowand             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Cervenak            2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Aguila             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Donovan Solano           2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Luke Montz               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Armstrong           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gil Velazquez            2%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Austin Kearns            1%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Hayes              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Orlando Mercado          1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alfredo Amezaga          2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Shawn Bowman             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ramon Vazquez            2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Mattison           0%       0%       0%       0%      34%       0%       0%      50%
Clint Sammons            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Green               0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Gutierrez          0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Josh Johnson              82%        94%        72%        22%        98%
Heath Bell                54%        90%        88%         2%        94%
Randy Choate              34%        67%        77%         2%        79%
Edward Mujica             23%        76%        53%        78%        38%
Jose Ceda                 26%        73%        93%         0%        75%
Anibal Sanchez            17%        79%        55%         0%        83%
Mark Buehrle              20%        70%         2%        55%        76%
Javier Vazquez            12%        74%        58%        10%        49%
Juan Oviedo               18%        61%        64%         4%        52%
Steven Cishek             19%        69%        29%         0%        95%
Ryan Webb                 10%        53%         4%         2%        87%
Michael Dunn              11%        54%        97%         0%        67%
Chris Hatcher             20%        48%        55%         1%        71%
Carlos Zambrano            3%        42%        27%         0%        74%
Ricky Nolasco              2%        41%        25%        57%        50%
Beau Jones                 6%        44%        42%         0%        82%
Chad Gaudin                4%        34%        35%         0%        68%
Wade LeBlanc               1%        30%         7%         1%        47%
Rob Delaney                3%        27%        15%         1%        46%
Alex Sanabia               3%        35%         0%        54%        43%
Daniel Jennings            4%        32%        16%         0%        88%
J.D. Martin                3%        25%         1%        46%        32%
Todd Doolittle             3%        25%        28%         1%        51%
Peter Andrelczyk           2%        24%        14%         0%        57%
Arquimedes Caminer         8%        27%        62%         0%        66%
Sandy Rosario              1%        21%        14%         0%        62%
Evan Reed                  3%        20%        22%         0%        73%
Chris Sampson              2%        18%         1%        27%        55%
Tom Koehler                0%         6%         2%         0%        55%
Mariano Gomez              2%        18%         2%         0%        74%
Elih Villanueva            0%         3%         0%         2%        26%
Sean West                  0%         4%         1%         0%        56%
Adalberto Mendez           0%         5%        13%         0%        50%
Omar Poveda                0%         1%         0%         0%        28%
Brad Hand                  0%         0%         0%         0%        17%
Robert Ray                 0%         2%         3%         0%        25%
Ramon Benjamin             0%         3%         9%         0%        50%
Mark McLemore              1%         9%         1%         0%        64%
Chad James                 0%         0%         1%         0%        40%
Dallas Trahern             0%         1%         0%         0%        63%
Jeff Allison               0%         0%         0%         0%        12%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-02-06T18:39:59+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_arizona_diamondbacks Arizona, ZIPS, The most encouraging thing about Arizona’s season, well, other than the trip to the playoffs, is just how quickly and efficiently they turned over a horrific 2010 bullpen.  The favorite quote of Branch Rickey among statheads (myself included) is “Luck is the residue of design.”  That kinda describes how the Diamondback bullpen worked so quickly - in every situation, both in performance and dollars, Arizona acquired relievers that would be a great help to the team in the upside and harmless on the downside.  It’s not that marginal relievers with limited service time like David Hernandez or Joe Paterson are inherently better relievers than a number of major league veterans, but that when a Hernandez hits his upside, you get a solid reliever for years, while if you sign some fringey J.C. Romero veteran-type, his upside just results in him signing an overpaid deal elsewhere in a year.

The best thing the Diamondbacks could do at this point is to apply this thinking to their role players on offense.  Arizona got a lot of Ryan Roberts, but they only got that out of Ryan Roberts because a terrible, older, more expensive option that the team preferred, Geoff Blum, was injured.  The team’s still doubling-down on the strategy that almost resulted in Roberts never getting playing time and has this strange proclivity to acquire excess utility infielders.  Having John McDonald, Geoff Blum, and Willie Bloomquist all signed to major league contracts is the equivalent of designing a jumbo jet to have one engine and no mechanical backups to the landing gear but making sure there are 3 backup fridges in the galley to hold cans of soda.  Thanks to the team’s policy of making a bench a charity for unemployed baseball players in their 30s, they were very lucky that Drew was the only major injury in the lineup.

Despite this problem, there are no dominating teams in the NL West and Arizona should be right there at the end of the season.  ZiPS absolutely loves their pitching staff.  ZiPS has always been super positive about Daniel Hudson and he hasn’t yet done anything to dislodge ZiPS from its computer-crush.

Next Up: Miami Marlins

Oracle on Twitter

Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Justin Upton      R    RF   24   .283 .366 .505 156 580  94 164  35   5  28  89  68 146  22   9  128
Jason Kubel       L    RF   30   .277 .342 .487 128 458  57 127  27   3  21  81  45  95   1   1  117
Paul Goldschmidt  R    1B   24   .250 .340 .472 156 579  77 145  32   3  30  92  75 193   8   2  113
Miguel Montero    L    C    28   .265 .336 .438 121 411  51 109  27   1  14  60  40  86   1   1  103
Gerardo Parra     L    LF   25   .279 .336 .411 155 506  59 141  25   9   8  52  42  96  12   4   97
Chris Young       R    CF   28   .242 .332 .435 153 550  82 133  34   3  22  71  74 149  19   7  102
Stephen Drew      L    SS   29   .267 .330 .435 123 469  65 125  28   9  11  60  44  90   6   4  101
Lyle Overbay      L    1B   35   .251 .333 .420 123 414  52 104  27   2  13  55  50  92   1   1   99
Aaron Hill        R    2B   30   .265 .318 .424 134 528  68 140  29   2  17  71  36  72  11   4   95
Ryan Roberts      R    3B   31   .250 .333 .407 132 432  63 108  23   3  13  52  53  92  14   7   95
David Winfree     R    LF   26   .258 .303 .427 103 384  41  99  22   2  13  58  22  80   4   2   91
Cole Gillespie    R    RF   28   .241 .320 .387 136 478  55 115  22   9  10  59  52 115  13   4   87
A.J. Pollock      R    CF   24   .263 .303 .375 126 506  68 133  29   5   6  47  29  96  21   6   79
Ryan Wheeler      L    3B   23   .262 .308 .395 156 608  59 159  32   2  15  79  38 145   3   4   85
Andy Tracy        L    1B   38   .221 .305 .403  96 335  35  74  18   2  13  43  40 104   2   0   86
Adam Eaton        L    RF   23   .253 .335 .360 145 581  69 147  24   7   8  63  52 108  30  16   85
Geoff Blum        B    3B   39   .262 .316 .369  59 141  14  37   7   1   2  17  10  18   0   0   81
Cody Ransom       R    SS   36   .225 .289 .405 108 378  43  85  22   2  14  52  32 113   6   2   82
Xavier Nady       R    1B   33   .253 .301 .371  81 229  26  58  12   0   5  29  13  52   1   0   77
Henry Blanco      R    C    40   .243 .307 .388  39 103  10  25   4   1   3  10  10  22   0   1   83
Matthew Davidson  R    1B   21   .234 .296 .389 156 606  71 142  36   2  18  87  46 191   0   2   80
Willie Bloomquist R    SS   34   .258 .305 .348  95 302  39  78   9   3   4  22  19  46  15   7   73
Marc Krauss       L    RF   24   .228 .296 .382 152 566  67 129  26   5  17  64  54 185   2   3   78
Mark Hallberg     R    2B   26   .258 .311 .347 140 484  49 125  28   3   3  55  36  50   5   4   75
Bobby Borchering  B    1B   21   .231 .286 .378 156 619  58 143  31   3  18  74  45 201   3   1   75
Konrad Schmidt    R    C    27   .249 .291 .370 113 433  36 108  25   3   7  44  20  97   2   3   74
Michael Restovich R    LF   33   .237 .293 .367  85 283  32  67  15   2   6  26  22  80   0   1   74
Jason Lane        R    LF   35   .228 .289 .370  82 311  38  71  19   2   7  33  26  64   2   2   74
Rusty Ryal        R    LF   28   .246 .295 .367  94 256  28  63  12   2   5  23  12  73   1   3   79
John McDonald     R    3B   37   .251 .283 .374  71 187  21  47  10   2   3  21   8  23   2   3   73
Angel Berroa      R    SS   32   .246 .282 .353  52 167  17  41  10   1   2  17   7  31   2   1   68
Ollie Linton      L    LF   26   .245 .323 .309 125 437  50 107  12   5   2  32  42 125  16  11   69
Craig Tatum       R    C    29   .228 .282 .312  66 202  18  46   9   1   2  23  15  46   1   1   58
Tommy Manzella    R    SS   29   .220 .269 .312 128 446  48  98  18   4   5  44  29 127   6   4   54
Ryan Budde        R    C    32   .196 .260 .298  71 235  23  46  10   1   4  22  19  83   1   1   48

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Justin Upton                                                                 VG/154
Jason Kubel                                                   FR/92           FR/93
Paul Goldschmidt              FR/96
Miguel Montero           VG
Gerardo Parra                                                 EX/88  AV/153   VG/85
Chris Young                                                           VG/87
Stephen Drew                                          AV/71
Lyle Overbay                  AV/75
Aaron Hill                            AV/75
Ryan Roberts                         AV/118   AV/86  PO/108  AV/119
David Winfree                 FR/99                          FR/101          AV/160
Cole Gillespie                                                VG/96   PO/78   AV/86
A.J. Pollock                                                          FR/55  AV/110
Ryan Wheeler                 FR/119          PO/108          FR/114
Andy Tracy                   AV/118          PO/112
Adam Eaton                                                    AV/96  FR/117   AV/96
Geoff Blum                   AV/100  FR/107   AV/47  PO/108
Cody Ransom                  FR/111   FR/99  FR/148  FR/106                  AV/127
Xavier Nady                   AV/91                          AV/100          FR/108
Henry Blanco             EX
Matthew Davidson             AV/106          FR/131
Willie Bloomquist            VG/110  AV/111  VG/109   FR/98   FR/85           FR/94
Marc Krauss                  FR/120                          PO/163          FR/131
Mark Hallberg                AV/118   AV/51   AV/83   FR/93
Bobby Borchering             FR/137          PO/176          FR/141
Konrad Schmidt           AV   FR/87
Michael Restovich            AV/105                          FR/135          FR/126
Jason Lane                   FR/101                          FR/110           FR/92
Rusty Ryal                   AV/157  FR/101  FR/128  FR/119  AV/132
John McDonald                         VG/93  AV/100   VG/85  AV/112
Angel Berroa                          AV/99  FR/110  PO/103  FR/115
Ollie Linton                                                  AV/78   FR/82   AV/96
Craig Tatum              VG
Tommy Manzella                        VG/94           AV/84
Ryan Budde               AV  AV/118  PO/118  AV/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ian Kennedy       R      27     3.42    11    7   26   26   163.3  146   62   17   49  143   123
Daniel Hudson     R      25     3.42    16   10   32   31   192.0  178   73   17   52  163   123
Trevor Cahill     R      24     3.90    14   11   32   32   200.7  193   87   21   68  143   108
Josh Collmenter   R      26     4.15    10    9   28   25   143.0  142   66   16   49  100   101
Trevor Bauer      R      21     4.18     9    8   24   24   140.0  128   65   19   64  143   101  
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Joe Saunders      L      31     4.57    11   12   29   29   181.3  193   92   25   60  103    92
Tyler Skaggs      L      20     4.58     7    8   26   24   127.7  129   65   17   55  101    92
Zach Duke         L      29     4.88     7    9   25   19   127.3  148   69   16   34   67    86
Wade Miley        L      25     4.94     7    9   27   26   142.0  162   78   15   63   90    85
Zach Kroenke      L      28     4.99     5    6   31   13   101.0  117   56   10   42   57    84
Patrick Corbin    L      22     5.00     7    9   26   26   140.3  159   78   19   47   97    84
Brett Lorin       R      25     5.06     5    6   21   17    90.7  101   51   14   30   57    83
Barry Enright     R      26     5.09     7   10   26   26   150.3  168   85   26   47   90    83
Kevin Mulvey      R      27     5.17     6    8   25   23   130.7  152   75   15   52   74    81
Joe Martinez      R      29     5.22     5    7   27   15   100.0  123   58   11   32   57    80
Wes Roemer        R      25     5.52     6    9   25   24   137.0  164   84   20   52   82    76
Gaby Hernandez    R      26     6.30     6   12   26   24   131.3  159   92   26   63   78    67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Takashi Saito     R      42     3.00     3    2   37    0    33.0   28   11    3   10   33   140
J.J. Putz         R      35     3.13     4    2   50    0    46.0   38   16    4   14   49   134
David Hernandez   R      27     3.44     4    3   68    0    65.3   54   25    6   30   72   122
Brad Ziegler      R      32     3.47     4    2   63    0    59.7   57   23    4   22   46   121
Craig Breslow     L      31     3.73     4    3   68    0    62.7   57   26    7   23   55   113
Joe Paterson      L      26     3.86     4    3   60    0    51.3   49   22    4   24   42   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jonathan AlbaladejR      29     4.04     3    3   45    0    49.0   47   22    6   19   41   104
Bryan Shaw        R      24     4.21     3    3   63    0    66.3   66   31    7   27   49   100
Kameron Mickolio  R      28     4.29     4    4   47    0    56.7   55   27    6   26   56    98
Jensen Lewis      R      28     4.35     3    3   41    0    51.7   52   25    6   23   43    96
Mike DeMark       R      29     4.53     2    2   43    0    45.7   46   23    5   23   37    93
Sam Demel         R      26     4.56     3    3   53    0    51.3   53   26    6   24   38    92
Mike Zagurski     L      29     4.70     2    3   52    0    53.7   52   28    6   32   50    89
Jason Lane        L      35     4.91     0    0    4    0     7.3    8    4    1    2    4    86
Chris Jakubauskas R      33     5.09     3    4   27    8    70.7   79   40   10   26   44    82
Yonata Ortega     R      25     5.15     2    3   47    0    50.7   53   29    6   33   42    82

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Justin Upton         .269  .354  .471  2507  9255  1420  2489   533    80   393  1288  1105  2271   274   116
Stephen Drew         .263  .322  .424  1769  6786   885  1785   389   117   157   807   590  1166    71    94
Chris Young          .240  .322  .422  2006  7292  1034  1747   447    39   269   898   872  1743   220    94
Aaron Hill           .263  .315  .411  1672  6474   823  1702   357    22   186   804   439   858   103    91
Jason Kubel          .269  .331  .454  1551  5443   658  1463   304    29   216   889   507  1059    15   107
Miguel Montero       .263  .329  .425  1653  5532   658  1454   350    14   173   769   503  1019    12    98
Gerardo Parra        .274  .331  .400  1582  5141   588  1410   254    78    78   532   419   966    95    93
Lyle Overbay         .264  .346  .429  1560  5304   683  1400   370    14   160   704   665  1130    18   104

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Trevor Cahill         222  166    0    3.82  487  487     3052 2849 1296  348 1054 2236    109
Daniel Hudson         207  124    0    3.42  418  405     2555 2349  970  239  685 2222    122
Ian Kennedy           137   90    0    3.69  343  339     2121 1928  869  241  676 1835    113
Joe Saunders          127  121    0    4.49  328  326     2011 2157 1003  277  670 1117     95
Zach Duke              91  126    8    4.73  329  284     1804 2158  948  211  484  945     89

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Justin Upton      RF     45%  32%  12%   7%   3%    Danny Tartabull        Chili Davis     Frank Robinson
Jason Kubel       RF     20%  32%  20%  16%  11%      Paul Sorrento      Geoff Jenkins      Brian Daubach
Paul Goldschmidt  1B     11%  26%  22%  26%  15%        Nick Esasky        Josh Phelps        Carlos Pena
Miguel Montero    C      26%  36%  21%  13%   4%      Terry Kennedy    Eddie Taubensee       Dave Nilsson
Gerardo Parra     LF      3%  10%  16%  27%  44%      David DeJesus      Dave Martinez     David Dellucci
Chris Young       CF     18%  23%  31%  20%   8%       Jon Nunnally        Jonny Gomes        Ernie Young
Stephen Drew      SS     25%  26%  27%  16%   6%         Greg Gagne   Mickey Morandini        Mark Teahen
Lyle Overbay      1B      2%   8%  12%  32%  45%          Ron Santo       Kevin Barker        Lee Stevens
Aaron Hill        2B     17%  16%  19%  24%  23%   Webster Garrison         Bret Boone        Steve Sisco
Ryan Roberts      3B      5%  14%  21%  28%  33%       Jeff Blauser        Kelly Heath         Jed Hansen
David Winfree     LF      1%   5%  11%  24%  59%       Wes Bankston         Ron Coomer        Mark Blaser
Cole Gillespie    RF      1%   5%   8%  19%  67%         Brad Tyler        Kenny Kelly         Bob Brower
A.J. Pollock      CF      1%   4%  16%  32%  46%        Dan Gladden        Xavier Paul        Chris James
Ryan Wheeler      3B      2%   4%   8%  19%  66%       Brook Jacoby       Scott Cooper     George Hinshaw
Andy Tracy        1B      2%   6%   6%  18%  67%         Bob Brenly        Lee Stevens      Chris Richard
Adam Eaton        RF      2%   4%   6%  12%  77%         Jon Saffer      Shin-Soo Choo          Curt Ford
Geoff Blum        3B      1%   3%   7%  15%  74%       Mark Loretta      Jim Davenport         Joe Stripp
Cody Ransom       SS      8%  11%  20%  27%  33%       Shane Halter         Rico Rossy       Mike Bordick
Xavier Nady       1B      0%   0%   1%   9%  89%          Wes Helms       Dusty Wathan   Darrell Whitmore
Henry Blanco      C       5%  13%  14%  25%  43%       Jim Sundberg          Jim Hegan        Rick Cerone
Matthew Davidson  1B      0%   1%   3%  12%  83%       Brett Harper       Nate Rolison      Richie Sexson
Willie Bloomquist SS      3%   5%  12%  22%  58%      Aaron Holbert      Jose Vizcaino        Rey Sanchez
Marc Krauss       RF      0%   1%   3%   7%  89%      Brent Clevlen     Chito Martinez      George Canale
Mark Hallberg     2B      1%   2%   4%  13%  80%      Keoni DeRenne       Craig Wilson         Bucky Dent
Bobby Borchering  1B      0%   1%   2%   8%  90%     Nelson Simmons        Corey Myers        John Hanley
Konrad Schmidt    C       1%   3%   7%  23%  67%  Salomon Manriquez        Mike Rabelo         Dan Wilson
Michael Restovich LF      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%   Darrell Whitmore        Orsino Hill        Dann Howitt
Jason Lane        LF      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%       Felipe Zayas       Chad Mottola      Alan Cockrell
Rusty Ryal        LF      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Bob Detherage       Nick Alvarez        Jeremy Ware
John McDonald     3B      2%   1%   2%   5%  89%        Juan Castro         Pete Suder       Jeff Branson
Angel Berroa      SS      1%   2%   7%  16%  74%         Kevin Baez         Gary Green        Juan Castro
Ollie Linton      LF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Jeff Stone      Dave Brundage      Marvin Benard
Craig Tatum       C       0%   0%   1%   4%  95%       Chris Tremie        Joe Hietpas     Bill Dobrolsky
Tommy Manzella    SS      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%     Chris Petersen     Frank Kremblas       Erick Monzon
Ryan Budde        C       0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Jayhawk Owens       Chad Moeller     Charlie Greene

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Takashi Saito     RP      66%    27%     7%     Larry Andersen      Satchel Paige         Doug Jones
J.J. Putz         RP      69%    26%     5%       Todd Worrell          Danny Cox       Billy Taylor
Ian Kennedy       SP      76%    19%     5%       Tommy Greene     Curt Schilling     Kevin Millwood
Daniel Hudson     SP      76%    19%     5%       John Thomson      Frank Pastore       Roy Halladay
David Hernandez   RP      51%    42%     7%       Bryan Harvey         Ryne Duren           Jim Kern
Brad Ziegler      RP      47%    44%     9%         Danny Kolb     Dwight Bernard    Warren Brusstar
Craig Breslow     RP      34%    49%    17%        Alan Embree         Dan Plesac         Gary Wayne
Joe Paterson      RP      29%    48%    23%      Grant Jackson       Randy Choate      Chris Marchok
Trevor Cahill     SP      47%    48%     5%       Andy Hawkins        Jon Garland          Jay Tibbs
Jonathan AlbaladejRP      21%    49%    30%      Matt Karchner         Tim Layana       Rocky Cherry
Josh Collmenter   SP      29%    57%    14%          T.J. Nall        Kevin Olsen      Greg Brummett
Trevor Bauer      SP     ————————-         Jason Bere         Eric Gagne        John Smoltz
Bryan Shaw        RP      12%    51%    36%       Chris George        Josh Kinney       Jose Ascanio
Kameron Mickolio  RP      15%    43%    42%          Karl Best        Greg Aquino      Jorge Vasquez
Jensen Lewis      RP      11%    42%    47%      Gerry Hannahs    David Holdridge        Gene Harris
Mike DeMark       RP      10%    35%    55%          Mike Cook     Doug Robertson    Franklyn German
Sam Demel         RP      11%    40%    49%       Brandon Kolb     Miguel Saladin          Scott Gay
Joe Saunders      SP      11%    56%    33%        Kirk Rueter   Dennis Rasmussen     Scott McGregor
Tyler Skaggs      SP      12%    50%    38%        Scott Downs       Sean Maloney       Jack Lazorko
Mike Zagurski     RP       7%    34%    59%       Tim Fortugno      Greg McCarthy        Kevin Tolar
Zach Duke         SP       7%    40%    53%   Mark Hendrickson        Scott Downs        Mike Maroth
Jason Lane        RP      32%    22%    46%      Morrie Martin     Lee Guetterman     Eric Gunderson
Wade Miley        SP       3%    39%    58%        Alex Graman       Chris George       Jake Chapman
Zach Kroenke      SP       1%    19%    79%     Jeff Musselman       Rich Rundles          Dave Otto
Patrick Corbin    SP       3%    35%    62%      Glendon Rusch       Derrin Ebert    John Rheinecker
Brett Lorin       SP       4%    36%    60%    Travis Thompson         Jack Hardy     Jason Stephens
Barry Enright     SP       1%    30%    69%      Jerry Kutzler    Steve Ellsworth      Travis Harper
Chris Jakubauskas RP       3%    20%    78%       Danny Graves      Sam Arrington        Jeff Harris
Yonata Ortega     RP       2%    21%    77%       Pete Sikaras         Jeff Smith       Calvin Jones
Kevin Mulvey      SP       2%    28%    70%       Marcus Jones        John Snyder        Jake Joseph
Joe Martinez      SP       4%    32%    64%      Tim Harikkala     Dave Borkowski        Jack Lamabe
Wes Roemer        SP       0%    13%    86%       David Pauley         Rick Bauer        Kevin Olsen
Gaby Hernandez    SP       0%     2%    98%       Vance Cozier   Giovanni Carrara         Joe Ganote

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Justin Upton            22%      34%      52%      16%      12%      46%      24%      18%
Jason Kubel             19%      12%      38%       1%       2%       9%      10%       0%
Paul Goldschmidt         2%      10%      25%       7%       3%      55%       7%       1%
Miguel Montero          10%       9%       9%       1%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Gerardo Parra           18%       6%       2%       0%      37%       1%       1%       1%
Chris Young              0%       4%       5%       9%       2%      11%       1%       9%
Stephen Drew             9%       5%       7%       1%      37%       1%       2%       0%
Lyle Overbay             3%       8%       4%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Aaron Hill               8%       2%       5%       2%       1%       3%       0%       1%
Ryan Roberts             3%       7%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       4%
David Winfree            4%       0%       4%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Gillespie           1%       2%       2%       0%      43%       0%       1%       1%
A.J. Pollock             6%       0%       0%       2%       7%       0%       0%      12%
Ryan Wheeler             5%       1%       4%       7%       2%       4%       1%       0%
Andy Tracy               1%       3%       6%       0%       1%       1%       2%       0%
Adam Eaton               3%       6%       1%       1%      22%       1%       1%      45%
Geoff Blum              17%       9%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Ransom              1%       0%       5%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Xavier Nady              6%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Henry Blanco            11%       9%       5%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matthew Davidson         0%       0%       2%      20%       1%       8%       0%       0%
Willie Bloomquist        9%       2%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       5%
Marc Krauss              0%       0%       0%       1%      10%       3%       0%       0%
Mark Hallberg            4%       1%       0%       2%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Bobby Borchering         0%       0%       1%       8%       2%       7%       0%       0%
Konrad Schmidt           2%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Restovich        1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Lane               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Rusty Ryal               3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John McDonald           10%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Angel Berroa             6%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ollie Linton             1%       2%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       1%
Craig Tatum              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tommy Manzella           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Budde               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Takashi Saito             55%        89%        74%        25%        81%
J.J. Putz                 61%        92%        87%        21%        77%
Ian Kennedy               35%        90%        43%         6%        67%
Daniel Hudson             40%        91%        30%        19%        85%
David Hernandez           43%        87%        93%         0%        75%
Brad Ziegler              39%        88%        13%         3%        96%
Craig Breslow             27%        78%        40%         3%        66%
Joe Paterson              22%        71%        21%         0%        88%
Trevor Cahill             11%        76%         2%         1%        62%
Jonathan Albaladej        15%        62%        25%         4%        47%
Josh Collmenter            5%        59%         2%         1%        58%
Bryan Shaw                 9%        57%         7%         1%        64%
Kameron Mickolio          11%        50%        73%         0%        55%
Jensen Lewis               8%        45%        26%         1%        69%
Mike DeMark                7%        37%        21%         0%        60%
Sam Demel                  7%        43%         8%         0%        68%
Joe Saunders               1%        29%         2%         3%        25%
Tyler Skaggs               2%        31%        13%         0%        29%
Mike Zagurski              5%        33%        55%         0%        56%
Zach Duke                  1%        17%         0%        25%        41%
Jason Lane                32%        54%        14%        58%        81%
Wade Miley                 0%        11%         1%         0%        67%
Zach Kroenke               1%        14%         0%         0%        64%
Patrick Corbin             0%        10%         1%         2%        33%
Brett Lorin                0%        13%         0%         6%        23%
Barry Enright              0%         7%         0%         3%         8%
Chris Jakubauskas          2%        18%         2%         5%        40%
Yonata Ortega              2%        17%        25%         0%        67%
Kevin Mulvey               0%         8%         0%         0%        55%
Joe Martinez               1%        13%         0%         8%        54%
Wes Roemer                 0%         2%         0%         0%        18%
Gaby Hernandez             0%         0%         0%         0%         3%
s
All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-02-02T18:28:54+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_cleveland_indians Cleveland, ZIPS, The Indians still aren't really ready to compete with the Tigers, but there are at least some encouraging signs. The team still has all sorts of interesting infielders and despite only finishing 9th in the league in scoring, the team has offense at all the hardest positions to find offense, the problem being the lack of success the organization has had at finding that average first baseman or leftfielder to sit in the middle of the lineup. It's not for lack of trying, but for whatever reason, Matt LaPorta's never improved past the Ben Broussard "below-average but not horrible" tier and Beau Mills just never became a major league caliber hitter.

Ubaldo Jimenez makes the rotation a lot better than it was heading into 2011. Still, the team has more serviceable starting pitchers, the types that are below-average and above replacement level, than actual good ones and the offense hasn't developed at this point to the extent that it can paper over the weakness (as Detroit did last year). For that next step forward, in addition to that missing bat, a couple of the Indians's stable of cromulent 4th/5th starters need to show more improvement.

Probably a .500 team again, but not a serious threat to the Tigers unless the wheels really come off.

Next Up: Arizona Diamondbacks

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Santana    B    C    26   .246 .361 .449 142 499  80 123  31   2  22  78  91 122   6   2  123
Shin-Soo Choo     L    RF   29   .268 .360 .430 123 456  62 122  23   3  15  62  58 111  15   5  118
Travis Hafner     L    DH   35   .259 .346 .423  93 324  39  84  17   0  12  46  38  74   1   0  112
Asdrubal Cabrera  B    SS   26   .275 .333 .422 151 590  82 162  33   3  16  74  46 110  15   5  107
Jason Kipnis      L    2B   25   .258 .320 .420 148 578  82 149  28   9  16  67  49 134  13   2  103
Grady Sizemore    L    CF   29   .243 .319 .434  82 325  45  79  20   3  12  47  32  83   8   4  106
Matt LaPorta      R    1B   27   .253 .321 .422 128 446  54 113  25   1  16  63  40 100   1   1  103
Michael Brantley  L    LF   25   .270 .330 .367 140 566  84 153  26   4   7  50  50  78  24   7   93
Jose Lopez        R    3B   28   .268 .296 .419 143 530  61 142  32   0  16  70  19  58   4   1   95
Lonnie Chisenhall L    3B   23   .255 .312 .404 144 545  74 139  28   4  15  73  38 108   2   1   96
Shelley Duncan    R    LF   32   .228 .309 .398 112 364  45  83  20   0  14  58  39  97   1   0   94
Kosuke Fukudome   L    RF   35   .240 .335 .370 129 433  52 104  23   3   9  37  61  94   5   6   95
Ezequiel Carrera  L    CF   25   .263 .329 .327 141 517  69 136  15   6   2  40  45 101  33  10   83
Aaron Cunningham  R    RF   26   .243 .306 .391 148 494  68 120  32   4  11  66  41 118   6   5   91
Jason Donald      R    SS   27   .248 .314 .350 109 400  48  99  20   3   5  28  31 101  11   3   84
Chun-Hsiu Chen    R    C    23   .240 .300 .382 130 484  48 116  27   3  12  62  41 136   3   2   87
Felix Pie         L    LF   27   .248 .295 .378 106 286  37  71  14   4   5  24  19  60   6   3   85
Fred Lewis        L    LF   31   .237 .324 .357 110 325  46  77  18   3   5  27  38  85   9   6   89
Thomas Neal       R    LF   24   .250 .315 .358 123 472  63 118  26   2   7  51  35 116   8   6   86
Cord Phelps       B    2B   25   .249 .317 .360 135 503  55 125  25   5   7  49  48 111   6   8   87
Jared Goedert     R    3B   27   .231 .293 .367 113 425  45  98  23   1  11  47  35 101   1   0   81
Nick Weglarz      L    LF   24   .208 .322 .350  85 303  43  63  17   1   8  34  47  95   1   2   86
Beau Mills        L    1B   25   .236 .282 .374 132 508  49 120  27   2  13  68  31 116   1   1   80
Jack Hannahan     L    3B   32   .223 .303 .347 110 337  40  75  17   2   7  37  38  93   2   1   80
Andy LaRoche      R    2B   28   .233 .303 .343 116 361  43  84  18   2   6  38  31  64   3   2   79
Lou Marson        R    C    26   .231 .313 .319 109 351  41  81  17   1   4  30  41  88   7   2   76
Ryan Spilborghs   R    RF   32   .227 .302 .344 117 291  32  66  14   1   6  31  29  75   4   4   78
Michel Hernandez  R    C    33   .240 .306 .316  60 196  20  47   9   0   2  23  17  28   1   1   73
Juan Diaz         B    SS   23   .235 .275 .329 156 604  58 142  23   5   8  60  32 140   8   3   67
Luke Carlin       B    C    31   .210 .312 .298  75 238  30  50   9   0   4  25  34  68   2   1   70
Adam Everett      R    SS   35   .231 .279 .308  51 130  16  30   7   0   1   8   8  25   2   1   62
Matt Pagnozzi     R    C    29   .215 .273 .293  80 246  21  53  10   0   3  24  18  72   0   1   57

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Santana           FR   FR/98
Shin-Soo Choo                                                AV/107          AV/107
Travis Hafner
Asdrubal Cabrera                      AV/93           FR/82
Jason Kipnis                         AV/160
Grady Sizemore                                                        AV/66
Matt LaPorta                 FR/113                           FR/96          FR/115
Michael Brantley                                              VG/79   AV/68
Jose Lopez                   AV/106  AV/120   VG/88
Lonnie Chisenhall                            VG/120
Shelley Duncan               FR/100                           FR/95          FR/104
Kosuke Fukudome                                                       PO/92   FR/59
Ezequiel Carrera                                             VG/109  VG/107   VG/97
Aaron Cunningham                                             AV/104  PO/109  FR/106
Jason Donald                          AV/94  AV/105  FR/104
Chun-Hsiu Chen           AV
Felix Pie                                                     AV/51   AV/92   AV/51
Fred Lewis                                                   AV/102  FR/101  FR/119
Thomas Neal                                                  VG/129  FR/111  AV/106
Cord Phelps                          AV/116  AV/123  FR/106
Jared Goedert                AV/102  PO/116  FR/129          FR/124          FR/124
Nick Weglarz                                                 AV/165          FR/123
Beau Mills                   AV/114
Jack Hannahan                 AV/94  AV/100   EX/79  PO/103
Andy LaRoche                 VG/109  FR/112   AV/87  FR/102
Lou Marson               VG
Ryan Spilborghs                                              FR/101  FR/118  FR/125
Michel Hernandez         AV
Juan Diaz                                            AV/117
Luke Carlin              AV  AV/118
Adam Everett                         VG/118   AV/99   VG/85
Matt Pagnozzi            AV  FR/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez    R      28     3.52    15    9   31   31   196.7  175   77   14   80  188   118
Justin Masterson  R      27     3.71    12    9   33   31   204.0  205   84   13   65  153   112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Josh Tomlin       R      27     4.56     9   10   26   25   150.0  157   76   21   36   85    91
Derek Lowe        R      39     4.68    11   12   28   28   157.7  181   82   16   48   99    89
Fauxsto Carmona   R      28     4.70    10   12   30   30   178.0  191   93   20   63  106    89
Kevin Slowey      R      28     4.88     6    8   24   20   114.3  133   62   17   19   78    85
Jeanmar Gomez     R      24     4.90    11   13   30   30   172.7  198   94   18   66   97    85
Carlos Carrasco   R      25     4.95     8   10   25   25   143.7  156   79   20   52  101    84
Zach McAllister   R      24     5.16     7   10   27   27   151.7  185   87   17   44   89    81
Matt Packer       L      24     5.35     8   11   28   23   139.7  169   83   19   39   78    78
David Huff        L      27     5.36     8   12   27   26   144.3  172   86   19   52   78    78
Scott Barnes      L      24     5.60     5    9   22   21   107.7  117   67   17   56   83    74
Corey Kluber      R      26     5.86     6   11   28   26   136.7  167   89   17   70   94    71
Chris Seddon      L      28     6.08     5   10   26   20   120.0  151   81   17   56   64    69
Kelvin De La Cruz L      23     6.30     4    8   24   19    90.0  100   63   13   73   64    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Vinnie Pestano    R      27     3.38     3    2   58    0    53.3   46   20    5   22   59   124
Chris Perez       R      26     3.79     4    3   66    0    61.7   53   26    6   28   56   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Joe Smith         R      28     3.95     3    2   66    0    57.0   53   25    4   26   43   106
Dan Wheeler       R      34     4.05     3    2   54    0    46.7   45   21    7   12   40   103
Tony Sipp         L      28     4.14     3    3   66    0    58.7   51   27    8   29   62   101
Nick Hagadone     L      26     4.24     6    5   56    0    76.3   73   36    8   33   63    98
Rafael Perez      L      30     4.27     3    3   69    0    59.0   63   28    5   22   33    98
Chen Lee          R      25     4.39     4    4   45    0    69.7   68   34    7   31   63    95
Chris Ray         R      30     4.63     2    3   46    0    44.7   46   23    5   20   32    90
Hector Ambriz     R      28     4.70     1    1   35    0    46.0   50   24    6   16   35    89
Frank Herrmann    R      28     4.75     2    2   51    0    66.3   73   35    8   21   39    88
Rob Tejeda        R      30     4.75     3    3   45    0    53.0   55   28    8   22   43    88
Chad Durbin       R      34     4.81     2    2   54    0    63.7   67   34    8   29   52    87
Jeremy Accardo    R      30     4.81     3    3   52    0    58.0   64   31    5   27   34    87
Steven Wright     R      27     7.17     2    7   34   11    90.3  124   72   16   54   46    58

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Asdrubal Cabrera     .268  .326  .405  2235  8650  1147  2316   460    39   217  1049   672  1454   180   101
Jose Lopez           .263  .293  .402  1885  7054   782  1855   399    11   187   889   264   761    50    87
Carlos Santana       .238  .349  .419  1896  6713   983  1601   395    24   256   963  1156  1440    65   112
Grady Sizemore       .255  .337  .444  1497  5942   905  1517   358    60   215   776   643  1338   179   110
Shin-Soo Choo        .271  .360  .431  1513  5589   750  1513   296    39   174   764   683  1242   158   117
Michael Brantley     .265  .324  .366  1290  5191   745  1378   237    37    70   467   452   709   159    91
Travis Hafner        .273  .368  .480  1413  4916   710  1341   304    10   231   835   661  1117    11   128
Matt LaPorta         .245  .311  .401  1152  4004   454   981   222    10   128   521   349   815    11    96
Kosuke Fukudome      .252  .348  .384   879  2938   380   740   165    20    61   278   430   603    40    95
Fred Lewis           .255  .334  .386   833  2477   387   631   144    30    40   212   269   611    76    94

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez        194  148    0    3.81  451  449     2791 2521 1180  209 1204 2591    113
Derek Lowe            190  175   85    4.05  700  421     2878 2988 1296  240  848 1877    108
Justin Masterson      148  127    0    3.89  480  403     2640 2673 1140  192  923 1985    107
Fauxsto Carmona       119  146    0    4.75  380  348     2112 2242 1115  228  796 1278     89
Kevin Slowey           77   76    0    4.82  246  214     1240 1421  664  196  205  889     86

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Santana    C      67%  24%   7%   2%   0%     Darrell Porter    Josh Willingham       Curt Blefary
Shin-Soo Choo     RF     31%  32%  17%  12%   7%    Willie Crawford          J.D. Drew      Gary Matthews
Travis Hafner     DH      9%  24%  21%  28%  19%       Fred McGriff          Hal McRae        Richie Zisk
Asdrubal Cabrera  SS     49%  26%  17%   6%   2%         Gene Alley    Carney Lansford       Leo Cardenas
Jason Kipnis      2B     37%  21%  17%  14%   9%       Rickie Weeks        Mark Teahen         Bobby Rose
Grady Sizemore    CF     22%  23%  27%  18%  10%        Ricky Ledee         Randy Bush          Jose Cruz
Matt LaPorta      1B      2%  13%  19%  36%  29%       Joe Vitiello          Larry See        Matt LeCroy
Michael Brantley  LF      4%  11%  16%  25%  45%         Mel Almada        Jeremy Reed      Covelli Crisp
Jose Lopez        3B      3%  15%  24%  30%  29%          Ken Reitz          Joe Crede       Terry Tiffee
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B      4%  13%  21%  28%  33%       Scott Cooper      Howard Battle         David Bell
Shelley Duncan    LF      2%   8%  13%  25%  52%         Adam Hyzdu   Ryan Radmanovich   Carmelo Martinez
Kosuke Fukudome   RF      1%   4%   8%  18%  69%    Bobby Higginson         Tim Tolman         Al Zarilla
Ezequiel Carrera  CF      4%   7%  21%  34%  34%       Kenny Lofton          Alex Cole      Willy Taveras
Aaron Cunningham  RF      1%   4%   7%  18%  70%        Kevin Young      David McCarty     Keith Williams
Jason Donald      SS      6%  15%  29%  28%  22%      Fred Manrique       Hubie Brooks      Aaron Ledesma
Chun-Hsiu Chen    C       5%  18%  24%  31%  22%        John Roskos         Matt Nokes           Al Pardo
Felix Pie         LF      1%   2%   4%  11%  82%        Jim Wawruck      Trent Oeltjen       Steve Carter
Fred Lewis        LF      0%   2%   5%  15%  78%       Pat Sheridan       Tommy McCraw       Keith Hughes
Thomas Neal       LF      0%   1%   4%  13%  81%          Rod Allen  Lastings Milledge        Dale Holman
Cord Phelps       2B      2%   3%   8%  23%  64%         Ron Oester      Chris Pittaro         Bobby Rose
Jared Goedert     3B      1%   3%   8%  20%  69%       Brad Seitzer          Lou Lucca     Travis Metcalf
Nick Weglarz      LF      3%   3%   4%  11%  79%         Brad Hawpe      Richie Grayum        John Jensen
Beau Mills        1B      0%   0%   2%   9%  89%        Billy Owens         Ryan Jones       Mike Rendina
Jack Hannahan     3B      1%   2%   6%  16%  76%       Shanie Dugas         Ron Warner      Ray Giannelli
Andy LaRoche      2B      3%   3%   6%  18%  69%           Stu Cole        Keith Johns       John Tamargo
Lou Marson        C       2%   8%  15%  34%  41%       Dave Huppert         Bob Henley       Danny Ardoin
Ryan Spilborghs   RF      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%    Derek Nicholson        Chris Sheff        Dann Howitt
Michel Hernandez  C       1%   3%   8%  24%  64%        Chris Ashby       Chad Moeller     Kirt Manwaring
Juan Diaz         SS      2%   2%   6%  15%  76%    Yamaico Navarro       Juan Delgado        Mike Huyler
Luke Carlin       C       1%   3%   6%  19%  70%       Danny Ardoin       Steve Yeager      Jayhawk Owens
Adam Everett      SS      1%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Jeff Branson         Kevin Baez   Rafael Bournigal
Matt Pagnozzi     C       0%   0%   1%   4%  95%        Joe Hietpas      Dane Sardinha       Ray Stephens

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Vinnie Pestano    RP      47%    45%     9%        Jeff Little       Bryan Harvey   Scott Williamson
Ubaldo Jimenez    SP      66%    29%     5%        Juan Guzman       Chan Ho Park        Jim Maloney
Justin Masterson  SP      56%    39%     5%    John Montefusco     Camilo Pascual      Joey Hamilton
Chris Perez       RP      29%    55%    16%       Steve Sharts       Brian Wilson       Stan Belinda
Joe Smith         RP      28%    46%    26%          Mark Acre          David Lee     Woody Williams
Dan Wheeler       RP      20%    41%    39%       Jeff Reardon    Jeff Montgomery       Todd Worrell
Tony Sipp         RP      17%    49%    34%         Will Ohman        Ron Villone           Tom Hall
Nick Hagadone     RP      12%    53%    35%          Omar Daal        Jaime Cerda      Craig Breslow
Rafael Perez      RP      13%    43%    44%     Dave Von Ohlen        Juan Agosto        Dave Tomlin
Chen Lee          RP       9%    52%    39%         Jeff Zaske       Bo Donaldson          Ben Hayes
Josh Tomlin       SP      13%    51%    36%       Louis McCall        Bill Wegman      Mike Esposito
Chris Ray         RP       8%    32%    59%     Jason Childers        Gregg Olson      Ernie Camacho
Derek Lowe        SP      10%    42%    48%      Tom Candiotti     Woody Williams     Rick Sutcliffe
Hector Ambriz     RP       7%    30%    63%     Matt Whiteside       Turk Wendell          Bob Wells
Fauxsto Carmona   SP       5%    46%    49%          Josh Fogg     Denny Harriger         Ryan Drese
Frank Herrmann    RP       4%    34%    62%          Tim McNab    Rafael Montalvo        Jay Tessmer
Rob Tejeda        RP       5%    29%    66%         Doug Henry       Joel Peralta       Marino Salas
Chad Durbin       RP       3%    31%    66%      Jim Dougherty  Juan Eichelberger         Doug Henry
Jeremy Accardo    RP       4%    28%    68%      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins       Weston Weber
Kevin Slowey      SP       6%    40%    54%        Greg Wooten        Matt Ginter        Josh Towers
Jeanmar Gomez     SP       3%    43%    54%     Steve Fireovid     Steve Cummings     Steve Crawford
Carlos Carrasco   SP       3%    35%    62%         Mark Clark       Willie Adams      Cliff Politte
Zach McAllister   SP       1%    29%    70%        Clay Parker   Elizardo Ramirez          Bill King
Matt Packer       SP       0%    17%    82%   Bobby Livingston    John Rheinecker     Heath Phillips
David Huff        SP       0%    18%    81%        Lance Davis       Mike Linskey     Heath Phillips
Scott Barnes      SP       1%    13%    86%       Adam Bostick        Damian Moss         James Happ
Corey Kluber      SP       0%     5%    95%     Carlos Paredes      Chris Gissell        Jim Johnson
Chris Seddon      SP       0%     2%    98%     Mike Prochaska          Nate Teut          Tim McCoy
Kelvin De La Cruz SP       0%     2%    98%        Les Walrond      Mike Gonzalez      Nate Cromwell
Danny Salazar     SP       2%     5%    93%       Billy Traber         Craig Swan        Mike Gordon
Steven Wright     RP       0%     0%   100%           Dan Kolb      Mike Bumstead   Eddie Candelario

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Santana           2%      31%      13%       3%       1%      11%      17%       1%
Shin-Soo Choo           11%      31%       8%       0%       2%       2%      13%       5%
Travis Hafner            8%      19%       6%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%
Asdrubal Cabrera        15%       6%       5%       7%       2%       5%       4%       7%
Jason Kipnis             3%       2%       5%       1%      41%       3%       3%       2%
Grady Sizemore           2%       4%       6%       0%       1%       0%       2%       1%
Matt LaPorta             2%       2%       3%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Michael Brantley        10%       4%       1%       1%       5%       1%       1%      21%
Jose Lopez               7%       0%       3%       5%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Lonnie Chisenhall        3%       1%       3%       1%       5%       3%       1%       0%
Shelley Duncan           0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Kosuke Fukudome          1%       8%       0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Ezequiel Carrera         5%       4%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%      59%
Aaron Cunningham         1%       0%       0%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Donald             2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Chun-Hsiu Chen           1%       1%       1%       1%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Felix Pie                3%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Fred Lewis               1%       4%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Thomas Neal              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cord Phelps              2%       1%       1%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Jared Goedert            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Weglarz             0%       4%       2%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Beau Mills               0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jack Hannahan            0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Andy LaRoche             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Lou Marson               0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Spilborghs          0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Michel Hernandez         4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Juan Diaz                0%       0%       1%       1%      10%       1%       0%       0%
Luke Carlin              0%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adam Everett             4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Pagnozzi            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Vinnie Pestano            47%        84%        91%         2%        77%
Ubaldo Jimenez            28%        86%        71%         0%        95%
Justin Masterson          21%        82%         9%         4%        97%
Chris Perez               29%        74%        52%         0%        73%
Joe Smith                 21%        67%        10%         0%        84%
Dan Wheeler               14%        52%        41%        33%        33%
Tony Sipp                 12%        58%        87%         0%        44%
Nick Hagadone              9%        52%        25%         0%        76%
Rafael Perez              13%        49%         1%         6%        85%
Chen Lee                   6%        47%        52%         0%        68%
Josh Tomlin                3%        29%         0%        41%        28%
Chris Ray                  8%        32%         7%         1%        69%
Derek Lowe                 2%        24%         2%        10%        64%
Hector Ambriz              5%        29%        13%         8%        42%
Fauxsto Carmona            1%        17%         1%         1%        58%
Frank Herrmann             2%        26%         0%        10%        51%
Rob Tejeda                 5%        27%        23%         2%        37%
Chad Durbin                2%        22%        20%         0%        42%
Jeremy Accardo             3%        21%         1%         1%        72%
Kevin Slowey               1%        17%         1%        94%        24%
Jeanmar Gomez              0%        12%         0%         0%        65%
Carlos Carrasco            0%        13%         2%         1%        24%
Zach McAllister            0%         5%         0%         9%        53%
Matt Packer                0%         4%         0%        16%        30%
David Huff                 0%         3%         0%         1%        34%
Scott Barnes               0%         3%         8%         0%        17%
Corey Kluber               0%         0%         1%         0%        37%
Chris Seddon               0%         0%         0%         0%        22%
Kelvin De La Cruz          0%         0%         3%         0%        24%
Danny Salazar              1%         4%         5%         2%        17%
Steven Wright              0%         0%         0%         0%        10%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-01-30T17:42:22+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/tigers_signed_fielder Detroit, Detroit Tigers sign 1B Prince Fielder to a 9 year/$214 million contract.

A fascinating signing on so many levels. First of all, a week ago serious people were seriously discussing the possibility that Fielder might end up in Japan, or have to settle for a short term contract—possibly as little as a year. It’s fairly clear that there was an element of luck (color me doubtful that the Tigers were sold on this signing before the Martinez signing), but again Boros gets his man the money and years he was after.

Second, for the next three years there’s going to be a potentially awkward talent clump. Sure, Victor Martinez is out for at least the best part of the year and the Tigers are currently planning on playing Miguel Cabrera at third in any case. I think it’s realistic to expect Cabrera to play third very badly. It’s been a few years since he played there and he wasn’t very good then. Don’t get me wrong, Cabrera and a caddy means that the position is very likely in better hands than it was last year when the Tigers had the choice of decent hitter/bad fielder or good field, no hit. Still, it’s going to be a challenge over the next 3 years to deal with 3 guys who realistically are no great shakes at first base. Harder than it was in the 60s and 70s when stuffing an extra bat at third was common. The size of today’s pitching staffs makes it harder to use players with great flaws (no matter their overall strengths)

Third, 9 years? I can’t pretend to know how well he’ll age, but there are some obvious causes for concern. There’s his sheer size. I have to say I wouldn’t be directly fearful. We’re conditioned to equate fat with being lazy and undisciplined. I see no evidence that this is true in Fielder’s case. He’s been durable and there are good reports of his work ethic. I’d be very worried if he actually had a history of knee problems but he doesn’t. Still, I find it interesting that Greg Luzinski, Kent Hrbek and Boog Powell show up in Prince’s age comp list. None of them aged all that well. But Harmon Killebrew and Babe Ruth most certainly played very well from age 28 to 36. I’m skeptical of the studies done using BMI—they’re using listed weights and are often good for a laugh (go ahead, look up David Wells on baseball-reference) so I’d suggest nothing more than a minor reservation on the size front.

Then there’s the type of talent. Fielder has what’s called old player skills. Most of his value lies in his strike zone judgment and his ability to hit home runs. Many players of this nature simply don’t age well. They’re already optimized and have little room for style adjustments as they age. But again see Killebrew. When all is said and done I see no reason to be really wary on the style front.

Then there’s the simple fact that that better players tend to age well. ZiPS projects another 1503 games for him with an eventual career OPS+ of 133. If that’s the way things work out, I think the Tigers will be slightly disappointed over the life of the contract, but it certainly won’t be any kind of disaster.

Don't be alarmed by the Bryce Harper projection -- ZiPS has him with an OPS+ in the 130s in a few years. He's extremely young and didn't kill AA pitchers in his month there, so throwing him in the mix at the start of the season would likely be way too soon.

Next Up: Cleveland Indians

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Ryan Zimmerman    R    3B   27   .283 .354 .476 134 515  78 146  29   2  22  78  57  97   3   1  123
Michael Morse     R    1B   30   .273 .331 .475 139 465  62 127  26   1  22  80  33 107   1   2  116
Wilson Ramos      R    C    24   .266 .338 .453 119 406  51 108  23   1  17  55  43  83   0   2  112
Jayson Werth      R    RF   33   .245 .342 .418 141 507  72 124  26   1  20  62  70 141  15   3  105
Bryce Harper      L    RF   19   .238 .317 .405 132 484  52 115  24   3  17  60  55 134  22   9   94
Adam LaRoche      L    1B   32   .236 .313 .415  99 364  46  86  21   1  14  58  41 105   1   1   95
Stephen LombardozzB    2B   23   .265 .316 .379 156 614  83 163  30  11   6  50  41  91  19   9   88
Michael Aubrey    L    LF   30   .249 .300 .413 106 361  39  90  21   1  12  46  25  50   1   1   91
Mike Cameron      R    CF   39   .235 .301 .412  64 204  26  48  12   0   8  23  19  50   0   0   91
Chris Marrero     R    1B   23   .262 .319 .380 156 592  61 155  31   0  13  72  48 128   2   3   89
Danny Espinosa    B    2B   25   .229 .309 .400 156 582  79 133  28   6  20  71  56 177  17   9   91
Ian Desmond       R    SS   26   .256 .304 .378 153 555  65 142  28   5  10  57  36 129  19   7   84
Jarrett Hoffpauir R    2B   29   .252 .311 .383 113 405  45 102  26   3   7  42  34  44   3   2   87
Roger Bernadina   L    CF   28   .240 .302 .374 118 404  54  97  18   3  10  30  33  98  21   6   82
Jason Michaels    R    LF   36   .238 .290 .390  95 172  20  41  12   1   4  20  11  36   1   0   82
Xavier Paul       L    RF   27   .249 .295 .375 109 293  38  73  14   4   5  31  19  70  12   5   81
Rick Ankiel       L    CF   32   .231 .293 .386 114 355  44  82  20   1  11  36  30  99   6   2   82
Tug Hulett        L    3B   29   .235 .305 .365 113 392  47  92  24   3   7  43  39  84   6   5   81
Andres Blanco     B    SS   28   .259 .300 .351  75 205  20  53  11   1   2  15  11  28   2   2   76
Brett Carroll     R    CF   29   .227 .289 .369 116 366  44  83  18   2  10  39  25  90   5   3   77
Matt Stairs       L    1B   44   .211 .300 .338  59  71   9  15   3   0   2   7   9  25   1   0   73
Carlos Rivero     R    3B   24   .243 .285 .356 148 564  57 137  30   2  10  60  33 127   3   3   73
Tyler Moore       R    1B   25   .220 .263 .394 139 540  52 119  31   3  19  79  29 172   1   1   75
Manny Mayorson    R    2B   29   .259 .295 .323 111 402  47 104  18   1   2  36  20  31  13   5   68
Corey Brown       L    CF   26   .211 .281 .364 130 459  55  97  19   6  13  48  41 164   8   4   73
Eury Perez        R    CF   22   .260 .293 .315 156 549  73 143  14   5   2  48  23  99  48  21   65
Jhonatan Solano   R    C    26   .244 .284 .341  98 328  31  80  17   0   5  37  17  48   1   1   69
Jesus Flores      R    C    27   .226 .266 .366  73 243  25  55  14   1   6  31  12  71   0   0   70
Alex Cora         L    3B   36   .243 .302 .308  78 185  18  45   8   2   0  13  13  21   3   1   66
Seth Bynum        R    SS   31   .212 .262 .354 112 401  41  85  17   2  12  48  26 138   7   2   65
Ivan Rodriguez    R    C    40   .237 .279 .329  66 219  20  52  11   0   3  30  12  42   1   1   64
Carlos Maldonado  R    C    33   .215 .289 .311  44 135  11  29   7   0   2  16  14  36   0   0   63
Mark DeRosa       R    3B   37   .244 .300 .277  46 119  13  29   4   0   0  13   8  23   1   1   58

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Ryan Zimmerman                                VG/86
Michael Morse                FR/104                           FR/92
Wilson Ramos             VG
Jayson Werth                                                 AV/101  FR/106  AV/101
Bryce Harper                                                 AV/125  FR/136  AV/115
Adam LaRoche                  AV/72
Stephen Lombardozzi                   AV/70  AV/118   FR/95
Michael Aubrey                FR/84                           FR/90          FR/118
Mike Cameron                                                 AV/117   AV/82  AV/104
Chris Marrero                AV/150
Danny Espinosa                        VG/85          AV/107
Ian Desmond                          AV/104          AV/130
Jarrett Hoffpauir                    AV/133  AV/103  FR/107  AV/112
Roger Bernadina                                               VG/85   AV/78  AV/106
Jason Michaels                                                AV/79   PO/91   AV/92
Xavier Paul                                                   AV/89  FR/143  AV/112
Rick Ankiel                                                   AV/92  FR/118  FR/106
Tug Hulett                   VG/118   AV/76  FR/102   PO/96  AV/108           AV/94
Andres Blanco                         FR/94  AV/107  AV/107
Brett Carroll                AV/112                           AV/86  FR/123   AV/86
Matt Stairs                  FR/115                           PO/96           PO/96
Carlos Rivero                                FR/143  FR/120
Tyler Moore                            124/
Manny Mayorson               AV/107  AV/102  VG/103  AV/111
Corey Brown                                                   VG/93  AV/120  AV/120
Eury Perez                                                   VG/114  AV/128   AV/94
Jhonatan Solano          AV          PO/118
Jesus Flores             AV
Alex Cora                    AV/120  AV/100   FR/96   FR/90
Seth Bynum                           AV/118   AV/95  FR/114
Ivan Rodriguez           VG
Carlos Maldonado         AV
Mark DeRosa                  FR/115  FR/113   FR/78           AV/85          AV/102

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Stephen Strasburg R      23     2.85     6    3   14   14    75.7   64   24    5   23   78   139
Gio Gonzalez      L      26     3.55    14   10   33   32   195.3  173   77   18   83  190   112
Jordan Zimmermann R      26     3.65     7    5   22   22   120.7  116   49   12   29  100   109
Tom Gorzelanny    L      29     4.09     7    7   30   19   116.7  113   53   12   47  101    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
John Lannan       L      27     4.42    10   11   30   30   175.0  192   86   17   65   93    90
Ross Detwiler     L      26     4.44     7    8   26   23   121.7  136   60   10   45   76    89
Livan Hernandez   R      37     4.44     8    9   25   25   152.0  167   75   14   47   82    89
Chien-Ming Wang   R      32     4.68     4    5   15   14    75.0   84   39    9   20   39    85
Erik Arnesen      R      28     4.82     7    9   29   21   130.7  152   70   14   37   81    82
Craig Stammen     R      28     4.93     6    9   29   22   135.0  155   74   17   39   86    80
Yunesky Maya      R      30     4.97     5    7   24   20   116.0  134   64   14   32   70    80
Oliver Perez      L      30     6.10     2    5   17   14    69.3   80   47   12   42   49    65

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Tyler Clippard    R      27     2.85     7    3   72    0    88.3   64   28    9   35  107   139
Drew Storen       R      24     3.14     5    3   70    0    71.7   61   25    6   22   70   126
Henry Rodriguez   R      25     3.53     3    2   57    0    63.7   52   25    4   40   73   112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brad Lidge        R      35     3.69     1    1   37    0    31.7   29   13    3   15   31   107
Sean Burnett      L      29     3.79     5    4   70    0    57.0   53   24    5   22   44   105
Ryan Perry        R      25     3.82     3    2   60    0    70.7   66   30    6   31   58   104
Todd Coffey       R      31     3.88     3    3   68    0    62.7   60   27    6   20   50   102
Doug Slaten       L      32     3.99     2    2   44    2    38.3   39   17    4   13   30    99
Josh Wilkie       R      27     4.04     5    4   53    0    64.7   66   29    5   23   49    98
Jeff Fulchino     R      32     4.04     3    3   53    0    55.7   53   25    6   23   49    98
Ryan Mattheus     R      28     4.09     2    2   34    0    33.0   31   15    3   16   24    97
Rafael Martin     R      28     4.41     4    4   42    0    49.0   48   24    5   22   39    90
Waldis Joaquin    R      25     4.68     3    3   42    2    57.7   61   30    5   31   37    85
Cole Kimball      R      26     4.70     3    3   40    0    46.0   43   24    5   33   41    85
Atahualpa SeverinoL      27     4.91     3    4   46    0    51.3   54   28    6   29   39    81

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ivan Rodriguez       .295  .332  .461  2609  9811  1374  2896   583    51   314  1362   525  1516   128   105
Ryan Zimmerman       .278  .343  .453  2199  8550  1205  2373   493    35   313  1212   859  1470    56   113
Mike Cameron         .248  .335  .441  2103  7313  1122  1810   411    59   295  1020   907  2010   297   104
Ian Desmond          .254  .302  .378  1724  6270   714  1594   326    50   117   645   398  1333   184    83
Danny Espinosa       .229  .311  .401  1783  6629   885  1519   324    57   233   800   648  1819   137    92
Wilson Ramos         .259  .331  .437  1687  5765   690  1493   316    19   225   747   602  1089     0   107
Jayson Werth         .255  .347  .438  1544  5352   798  1364   278    21   220   727   707  1434   150   109
Adam LaRoche         .259  .329  .458  1361  4807   637  1246   316    13   205   767   506  1208     9   106
Michael Morse        .270  .326  .456  1029  3498   429   943   192     7   149   552   230   719     9   110
Rick Ankiel          .239  .301  .404   886  2719   359   651   145    10    94   323   227   709    36    87

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Livan Hernandez       197  206    0    4.44  550  549     3573 3955 1762  394 1194 2166     94
Gio Gonzalez          189  141    0    3.68  439  427     2589 2294 1060  265 1157 2558    108
John Lannan           119  140    0    4.30  377  376     2182 2340 1041  226  830 1172     94
Chien-Ming Wang        74   49    1    4.36  180  172     1023 1097  496   86  291  480     98

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Ryan Zimmerman    3B     44%  32%  15%   7%   2%       Brook Jacoby       Ken McMullen     Garrett Atkins
Michael Morse     1B     12%  30%  22%  24%  12%      Mike Marshall        Xavier Nady         Bob Oliver
Wilson Ramos      C      40%  36%  15%   7%   2%       Geovany Soto      Jerry Willard         Todd Zeile
Jayson Werth      RF     15%  26%  20%  21%  19%     Bernard Gilkey         Eric Davis        Woodie Held
Bryce Harper      RF      6%  12%  12%  17%  52%       Jayson Werth    Michael Cuddyer       Justin Upton
Adam LaRoche      1B      2%   6%  10%  30%  53%         Tony Clark        Lee Stevens        Damon Minor
Stephen Lombardozz2B      7%  10%  16%  27%  41%      William Suero         Luis Rivas     Nelson Liriano
Michael Aubrey    LF      1%   4%   7%  16%  72%         Tim Norrid        Daryle Ward       Andy Barkett
Mike Cameron      CF      9%   9%  17%  25%  39%       Brian Jordan      Willie Horton       Garry Maddox
Chris Marrero     1B      0%   2%   5%  21%  72% Luis de los Santos        Juan Tejeda       Billy Butler
Danny Espinosa    2B     10%  11%  17%  26%  36%      Brooks Conrad     Sean Rodriguez   Dallas McPherson
Ian Desmond       SS      7%  15%  30%  28%  20%      Royce Clayton     Robby Thompson     Rafael Ramirez
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B      5%   7%  13%  26%  50%           Stu Cole  Steve Lombardozzi     Jorge Velandia
Roger Bernadina   CF      5%   9%  21%  33%  32%      Scott Lusader    Kevin Koslofski       Dan Ortmeier
Jason Michaels    LF      1%   2%   4%   9%  85%       Brian Jordan      Willie Horton         Mark Smith
Xavier Paul       RF      1%   2%   4%  10%  83%       Steve Carter       Alexis Gomez      Cory Sullivan
Rick Ankiel       CF      1%   3%  13%  30%  52%        Orsino Hill   Darrell Whitmore       Brian Lesher
Tug Hulett        3B      0%   2%   5%  16%  76%         Alan Lewis      Tony Schrager     Edgar Gonzalez
Andres Blanco     SS      2%   4%  14%  28%  52%      Dean DeCillis         Bruce Yard    Keith Kessinger
Brett Carroll     CF      0%   2%   7%  21%  71%       John Giudice         Jeff Barry        Troy Hughes
Matt Stairs       1B      1%   2%   3%   8%  87%         Tom Wilson   Harmon Killebrew         Jeff Manto
Carlos Rivero     3B      0%   1%   3%   9%  88%      Travis Hanson     Steve BuecheleChristopher Valaika
Tyler Moore       1B      0%   0%   1%   6%  92%    Troy Farnsworth       Ryan Mulhern       Chris Kirgan
Manny Mayorson    2B      0%   0%   2%   7%  90%     Benjamin Perez       Chris Wimmer      John McDonald
Corey Brown       CF      1%   1%   4%  16%  78%        Brad SnyderJeffrey Fortenberry       Jon VanEvery
Eury Perez        CF      0%   1%   5%  13%  81%      Willy Taveras     Leo Sutherland      Luis Mercedes
Jhonatan Solano   C       1%   3%   5%  18%  73%    Jeff Winchester        Drew Butera   Brandon Marsters
Jesus Flores      C       1%   2%   6%  20%  71%        Chris Curry       Alvin Colina       Tommy Duenas
Alex Cora         3B      0%   1%   2%   6%  90%      Mark Belanger           Dan Rohn         Larry Bowa
Seth Bynum        SS      1%   3%   6%  14%  77%      Dave Matranga         Nick Green  Trace Coquillette
Ivan Rodriguez    C       1%   2%   3%  11%  84%        Raul Chavez        Pat Borders        Joe Girardi
Carlos Maldonado  C       0%   1%   3%   9%  87%       Chad Moeller  George Mitterwald       Steve Yeager
Mark DeRosa       3B      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%      Jim Davenport       Billy Jurges      Charlie Hayes

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Tyler Clippard    RP      73%    22%     5%         Eric Plunk    Armando Benitez    Ricky Bottalico
Stephen Strasburg SP      85%    10%     5%      Roger Clemens       Josh Beckett        Matt Morris
Drew Storen       RP      57%    38%     5%      Antonio Osuna       Heath Haynes   Scott Strickland
Henry Rodriguez   RP      33%    49%    18%       Mark Littell       Steve Sharts       Ryan Bukvich
Gio Gonzalez      SP      57%    38%     5%      Tony Saunders       Juan Pizarro        Shawn Estes
Jordan Zimmermann SP      51%    43%     6%  Larry Christenson        Danny Haren     Frank Castillo
Brad Lidge        RP      33%    33%    34%         Roy Thomas       Toby Borland        Rudy Seanez
Sean Burnett      RP      26%    47%    26%  Brian Shackelford           Ed Glynn       Tim Hamulack
Ryan Perry        RP      16%    52%    32%          Lee Smith     Alejandro Pena       Brian Bowles
Todd Coffey       RP      23%    52%    25%    Hector Carrasco   Brian Falkenborg        Cory Bailey
Doug Slaten       RP      20%    37%    42%       Tommy Phelps    Vic Darensbourg         Mike Munoz
Josh Wilkie       RP      13%    54%    33%  Hipolito Pichardo       Juan Padilla      Gary Majewski
Jeff Fulchino     RP      13%    42%    45%      Doug Bochtler    Ricky Bottalico     Brian Williams
Tom Gorzelanny    SP      23%    53%    23%      Mickey Mahler       Pete Falcone          Al Leiter
Ryan Mattheus     RP      17%    38%    45%     Marc Pisciotta    Franklyn German        Gary Wagner
Rafael Martin     RP      10%    34%    56%      Gerry Hannahs    Gabriel Dehoyos    David Holdridge
John Lannan       SP       8%    56%    36%     Jimmy Anderson         Jeff Mutis         Al Jackson
Ross Detwiler     SP       7%    51%    42%       Jake Chapman         Tom McGraw         Jeff Mutis
Livan Hernandez   SP       9%    39%    52%         Sid Hudson       Steve Sparks    Jack Billingham
Chien-Ming Wang   SP      11%    32%    57%       Travis Smith        Dave Eiland      Brian Moehler
Waldis Joaquin    RP       5%    24%    72%      Joe Davenport     Marc Pisciotta         Joel Moore
Cole Kimball      RP       7%    30%    64%        Brad Voyles         Josh Banks   Santiago Casilla
Erik Arnesen      SP       3%    34%    64%     Dave Borkowski       Mike Thurman      Tim Harikkala
Atahualpa SeverinoRP       3%    18%    80%        Kevin Tolar      Mike Johnston      Jason Jimenez
Craig Stammen     SP       2%    25%    74%      Tim Harikkala     Dave Borkowski        Chris Baker
Yunesky Maya      SP       3%    29%    68%     Dave Borkowski        Mike Harkey      Joey Hamilton
Oliver Perez      SP       0%     3%    97%          Dan Smith         Ed Yarnall     Jimmy Williams

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Ryan Zimmerman          25%      22%      29%       2%       1%      12%      17%       0%
Michael Morse           15%       6%      30%       0%       0%      13%      10%       0%
Wilson Ramos            10%      10%      15%       0%       1%       2%       6%       0%
Jayson Werth             2%      12%       6%       1%       0%       8%       4%       5%
Bryce Harper             1%       4%       5%       0%       2%       5%       3%      22%
Adam LaRoche             1%       2%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Stephen Lombardozz       6%       1%       1%       7%      61%       1%       0%      12%
Michael Aubrey           2%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Mike Cameron             3%       3%       7%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Chris Marrero            3%       1%       0%       8%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Danny Espinosa           0%       0%       2%       2%      16%       9%       1%       8%
Ian Desmond              3%       1%       2%       2%       8%       1%       0%       9%
Jarrett Hoffpauir        3%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Roger Bernadina          1%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      10%
Jason Michaels           4%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Xavier Paul              4%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Rick Ankiel              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tug Hulett               0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Andres Blanco           10%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Carroll            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Stairs              4%       7%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Carlos Rivero            0%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Moore              0%       0%       1%       3%       3%       3%       0%       0%
Manny Mayorson           4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Corey Brown              0%       0%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       0%
Eury Perez               5%       0%       0%       0%       8%       0%       0%      96%
Jhonatan Solano          2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jesus Flores             1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alex Cora                6%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Seth Bynum               0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Ivan Rodriguez           4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Carlos Maldonado         1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark DeRosa              8%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Tyler Clippard            71%        94%        98%         1%        64%
Stephen Strasburg         65%        92%        84%        15%        89%
Drew Storen               49%        90%        74%        10%        82%
Henry Rodriguez           26%        76%        95%         0%        90%
Gio Gonzalez              19%        81%        77%         0%        81%
Jordan Zimmermann         18%        75%        24%        41%        66%
Brad Lidge                23%        66%        70%         2%        81%
Sean Burnett              20%        67%        12%         3%        72%
Ryan Perry                16%        61%        22%         0%        84%
Todd Coffey               17%        61%        17%        10%        75%
Doug Slaten               20%        48%        16%        17%        68%
Josh Wilkie               13%        53%         8%         4%        85%
Jeff Fulchino              9%        47%        37%         1%        63%
Tom Gorzelanny             5%        46%        37%         1%        65%
Ryan Mattheus             17%        45%        12%         1%        79%
Rafael Martin              7%        36%        19%         1%        62%
John Lannan                1%        25%         0%         1%        76%
Ross Detwiler              1%        25%         0%         1%        92%
Livan Hernandez            2%        21%         1%        10%        76%
Chien-Ming Wang            3%        22%         1%        32%        49%
Waldis Joaquin             3%        22%         2%         0%        73%
Cole Kimball               4%        29%        45%         0%        68%
Erik Arnesen               0%        12%         0%        12%        63%
Atahualpa Severino         2%        15%        11%         0%        66%
Craig Stammen              0%         8%         0%        11%        38%
Yunesky Maya               0%         9%         0%        18%        50%
Oliver Perez               0%         1%         3%         0%        16%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-01-26T21:04:53+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_toronto_blue_jays Toronto, ZIPS, Toronto has a decent lineup and bullpen, but they won't get much about the .500 range without better and deeper starting pitching - hopefully, Double A Arn Anderson Alex Anthopoulos can prove just as canny at swiping some pitchers as he has with guys like Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Colby Rasmus, all players with ability that had their previous teams sour on them prematurely.

Next Up: Washington Nationals

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Jose Bautista     R    RF  31   .273 .408 .566 136 461  84 126  23   2  36  88 101 107   7   3  158
Brett Lawrie      R    3B  22   .275 .333 .498 148 600  90 165  33  10  27  79  44 135  24   8  119
Edwin Encarnacion R    3B  29   .261 .331 .457 122 433  59 113  26   1  19  59  42  79   4   1  109
Adam Lind         L    1B  28   .264 .315 .466 143 556  66 147  30   2  26  92  40 120   2   1  106
Colby Rasmus      L    CF  25   .250 .322 .454 152 513  86 128  28   4  23  67  56 150   8   4  105
Yunel Escobar     R    SS  29   .272 .351 .393 138 522  71 142  23   2  12  53  58  68   4   3   99
Kelly Johnson     L    2B  30   .242 .323 .434 141 505  72 122  27   5  20  59  59 136  12   6  101
Ben Francisco     R    RF  30   .253 .326 .418 107 297  36  75  17   1  10  43  29  60   7   3   98
Eric Thames       L    LF  25   .250 .313 .428 154 603  83 151  35   6  20  78  45 159   7   3   96
Travis d'Arnaud   R    C   23   .253 .299 .421 118 447  55 113  26   2  15  61  25 117   4   2   90
Travis Snider     L    LF  24   .247 .304 .407 126 477  60 118  29   1  15  66  37 133  12   4   89
Rajai Davis       R    CF  31   .259 .299 .365 121 394  53 102  22   4   4  39  20  69  35  11   77
J.P. Arencibia    R    C   26   .229 .281 .442 131 493  56 113  27   3  24  80  33 141   0   1   90
Luis Valbuena     L    SS  26   .251 .313 .377 145 514  66 129  25   2  12  60  45 118   7   4   84
David Cooper      L    1B  25   .251 .311 .376 149 574  60 144  37   1  11  74  50  97   0   1   83
A.J. Jimenez      R    C   22   .256 .293 .358 115 438  44 112  25   1   6  53  23  98  14   4   74
Anthony Gose      L    CF  21   .230 .300 .374 156 612  89 141  21   8  17  49  51 203  53  27   79
Mike McDade       B    1B  23   .245 .283 .387 151 587  62 144  30   1  17  67  25 161   0   1   78
Mark Teahen       L    3B  30   .239 .300 .364 108 335  39  80  16   1   8  37  28  86   3   2   77
Moises Sierra     R    RF  23   .249 .297 .389 106 406  53 101  14   2  13  57  22  85  10  12   82
Mike McCoy        R    SS  31   .230 .314 .308 117 370  51  85  15   1   4  29  45  74  21   6   68
Ryan Shealy       R    1B  32   .210 .289 .350  69 257  28  54  12   0   8  39  25  83   0   0   71
Darin Mastroianni R    CF  26   .234 .302 .299 141 565  78 132  21   5   2  35  53 123  34  10   62
Adeiny HechavarriaR    SS  23   .241 .269 .345 145 582  65 140  25   6   8  51  23 106  15  11   63
Craig Stansberry  R    3B  30   .217 .283 .316 103 332  39  72  14   2   5  31  29  86   7   4   61
Chris Woodward    R    SS  36   .222 .269 .320 106 387  42  86  18   1   6  35  24  81   3   1   57
Callix Crabbe     B    2B  29   .220 .287 .311  91 305  36  67  12   2   4  28  27  57   9   7   61
Jeff Mathis       R    C   29   .209 .262 .321  88 249  25  52  11   1   5  30  17  77   2   2   55
Brian Jeroloman   L    C   27   .192 .285 .264  96 333  27  64  12   0   4  27  42 128   1   1   49
Brian Bocock      R    SS  27   .200 .266 .265 116 385  37  77  11   1   4  31  35 116   7   6   43

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Jose Bautista                AV/117           AV/89           FR/99  PO/113   FR/99
Brett Lawrie                         AV/166  VG/106
Edwin Encarnacion            AV/122          FR/125
Adam Lind                     AV/66                           PO/89
Colby Rasmus                                                 VG/111  AV/133  VG/118
Yunel Escobar                                         AV/85
Kelly Johnson                         AV/91
Ben Francisco                                                 AV/90   PO/84   FR/95
Eric Thames                                                  FR/123          FR/110
Travis d'Arnaud          AV
Travis Snider                                                AV/192  PO/136  FR/177
Rajai Davis                                                   AV/98   AV/97   VG/98
J.P. Arencibia           FR
Luis Valbuena                         FR/75  AV/103  FR/106   AV/95
David Cooper                 FR/120  FR/137          PO/115
A.J. Jimenez             VG                  FR/124
Anthony Gose                                                 VG/105  VG/124  VG/117
Mike McDade                  VG/143
Mark Teahen                   AV/93  PO/115   PO/89          FR/121           PO/99
Moises Sierra                                                                VG/155
Mike McCoy                            AV/99   AV/93  AV/103  AV/110  FR/109   AV/94
Ryan Shealy                   FR/78
Darin Mastroianni                                            VG/108   AV/95  VG/115
Adeiny Hechavarria                                   AV/104
Craig Stansberry             AV/111   AV/93  VG/117  AV/108
Chris Woodward                       FR/107  AV/112  AV/125  FR/105
Callix Crabbe                        AV/118  AV/106  FR/110   AV/95  FR/117  AV/117
Jeff Mathis              AV
Brian Jeroloman          AV
Brian Bocock                                         VG/106
                  
Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ricky Romero      L     27    3.72    15    9   31   31  210.3  190   87   23   79  171  117
Brandon Morrow    R     27    4.12    11    9   32   29  166.0  154   76   18   71  176  106
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Henderson Alvarez R     22    4.65     9    8   27   25  155.0  175   80   21   31   89   94
Brett Cecil       L     25    5.00    10   11   29   29  174.7  189   97   28   59  122   87
Dustin McGowan    R     30    5.00     4    4   18   17   72.0   77   40   10   34   54   87
Jesse Litsch      R     27    5.18     4    5   22   13   80.0   89   46   12   27   55   84
Joel Carreno      R     25    5.52     6    8   28   22  117.3  132   72   17   63   89   79
Willie Collazo    L     32    5.53     2    3   17    8   55.3   67   34    9   17   27   79
Luis Perez        L     27    5.71     6    9   34   19  121.3  139   77   16   72   78   76
Kyle Drabek       R     24    5.80     8   12   30   27  147.3  170   95   21   87   88   75
B.J. LaMura       R     31    6.16     4    7   34   12   80.3   90   55   12   61   51   71
Mike MacDonald    R     30    6.28     5    9   27   20  116.0  162   81   15   40   44   69
Scott Richmond    R     32    6.30     5    8   20   16   90.0  108   63   19   41   61   69
Yohan Pino        R     28    6.31     5    9   35   15  107.0  134   75   23   34   70   69
Chad Beck         R     27    6.52     5    9   33   18  109.0  146   79   17   51   55   67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Buzz Oliver       L     41    3.33     4    2   53    0   46.0   42   17    4   12   44  131
Sergio Santos     R     28    3.34     5    2   60    0   59.3   49   22    6   25   72  131
Casey Janssen     R     30    3.48     4    2   57    0   62.0   57   24    6   18   58  125
Jason Frasor      R     34    3.88     4    3   60    0   55.7   52   24    6   22   53  112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Shawn Camp        R     36    4.22     4    3   59    0   64.0   68   30    6   21   38  103
Carlos Villanueva R     28    4.55     4    4   47    8   89.0   92   45   12   31   68   96
Trystan Magnuson  R     27    4.69     3    3   43    0   63.3   68   33    7   26   42   93
Danny Farquhar    R     25    4.95     4    4   56    0   63.7   65   35    7   40   50   88
Alan Farina       R     25    5.12     2    2   31    0   31.7   32   18    4   20   26   85
Aaron Laffey      L     27    5.12     3    3   52    0   58.0   66   33    7   26   31   85
Evan Crawford     L     25    5.23     3    4   49    0   53.3   60   31    6   28   36   83
Jesse Chavez      R     28    5.37     3    4   55    0   63.7   72   38   11   21   45   81
Brian Tallet      L     34    5.57     3    4   27    7   63.0   69   39   11   28   47   78
Clint Everts      R     27    5.66     2    2   46    1   62.0   69   39    8   40   45   77
Vince Perkins     R     30    5.91     1    1   15    0   21.3   24   14    3   17   13   74
Jerry Gil         R     29    6.00     4    7   51    0   57.0   64   38    8   42   40   73
Rommie Lewis      L     29    6.02     3    4   44    2   64.3   77   43   10   33   43   73
Ronald Uviedo     R     25    6.10     3    5   41    6   76.7   86   52   16   39   60   71

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Yunel Escobar       .273  .346  .387  1794  6814   907  1863   297    21   145   689   684   777    49    96
Jose Bautista       .256  .367  .486  2010  6789  1036  1736   340    34   385  1054  1128  1411    88   126
Colby Rasmus        .243  .317  .432  2029  6848  1104  1663   363    46   279   845   745  1829    80    99
Edwin Encarnacion   .257  .327  .438  1694  5969   784  1534   343    10   240   798   556  1032    59   101
Kelly Johnson       .247  .326  .424  1721  6170   881  1527   334    64   210   707   691  1447   121    98
Adam Lind           .261  .311  .450  1510  5787   677  1513   315    17   248   897   402  1158    13   101
Rajai Davis         .266  .309  .369   927  2816   388   748   158    31    24   269   156   468   267    81

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ricky Romero          180  133    0    3.96  406  405     2680 2495 1179  308 1079 2166    110
Brandon Morrow        134  116   16    4.28  495  343     2091 1914  995  245  956 2258    101

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Jose Bautista     RF    85%  10%   3%   2%   1%        Ralph Kiner     George Selkirk         Jimmy Wynn
Brett Lawrie      3B    41%  29%  17%  10%   4%      Chipper Jones      Adrian Beltre    Carney Lansford
Edwin Encarnacion 3B    17%  29%  26%  18%  10%     Steve Buechele         Jeff Manto      Scott Brosius
Adam Lind         1B     4%  15%  19%  35%  27%        Matt LeCroy       Larry Sheets         Rod Brewer
Colby Rasmus      CF    20%  23%  30%  19%   7%          Bob Skube        Jessie Reid        Jim Edmonds
Yunel Escobar     SS    22%  23%  29%  19%   7%           Don Wert     Bob Aspromonte     Scott Fletcher
Kelly Johnson     2B    25%  19%  19%  20%  16%       Justin Leone        Kelly Heath      Jose Valentin
Ben Francisco     RF     3%  11%  15%  25%  46%    Prentice Redman        Aaron Guiel         Bruce Aven
Eric Thames       LF     2%  10%  14%  25%  49%           Ted Wood      LaVel Freeman        John Bowker
Travis d'Arnaud   C      8%  22%  24%  28%  18%         Bill Bathe        Randy Knorr      Brook Fordyce
Travis Snider     LF     2%   7%   9%  18%  64%    John Vander Wal       Rick Sofield       Rob Lukachyk
Rajai Davis       CF     4%   6%  18%  31%  41%    Chris Singleton         Greg Tubbs     Rufino Linares
J.P. Arencibia    C      7%  23%  25%  27%  18%       Bobby Hughes          John BuckGiuseppe Chiaramonte
Luis Valbuena     SS     5%  11%  26%  29%  29%         Dale Berra       Ernest Riles        Chris Gomez
David Cooper      1B     0%   0%   2%  13%  85%    Terry Jorgensen      Brian Traxler         Rod Brewer
A.J. Jimenez      C      2%   7%  12%  29%  50%        Jorge Pedre       Rey Palacios        Jeff Mathis
Anthony Gose      CF     8%  20%  21%  19%  32%       Daryl Boston    Herm Winningham       Dave Krynzel
Mike McDade       1B     0%   1%   2%   9%  89%        Lance Belen        Drew DensonGuillermo Velasquez
Mark Teahen       3B     0%   2%   5%  14%  80%       Shanie Dugas      Ray Giannelli     Chris Saunders
Moises Sierra     RF     3%   6%  10%  21%  60%     Brandon Berger         Dan Wagner       Chad Mottola
Mike McCoy        SS     4%   4%  12%  26%  54%    Rabbit Warstler      Mark Belanger         Tim Barker
Ryan Shealy       1B     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%         Jody Davis        Dustan Mohr       Steve Yeager
Darin Mastroianni CF     0%   0%   2%  11%  87%        Tom Goodwin        Wayne Lydon  Sebastien Boucher
Adeiny HechavarriaSS     2%   2%   4%   9%  84%     Gregorio Petit         Buck Coats      Juan Gonzalez
Craig Stansberry  3B     0%   0%   1%   2%  96%  Trace Coquillette        Jose Santos      Dave Matranga
Chris Woodward    SS     1%   1%   2%   6%  90%       Shane Halter         Rico Rossy      Mark Belanger
Callix Crabbe     2B     1%   0%   1%   2%  97%         Tim Cullen  Gary Miller-Jones         Doug Baker
Jeff Mathis       C      1%   1%   1%   4%  93%        Chris Curry    Paul Chiaffredo      Rebecca Black
Brian Jeroloman   C      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%      Adam Donachie        Jean Boscan        Joe Hietpas
Brian Bocock      SS     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%       Scott Powers     Derek Mitchell         Les Dennis

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Buzz Oliver       RP     60%   34%    5%     Larry Andersen        John Franco         Doug Jones
Sergio Santos     RP     64%   31%    5%       Bryan Harvey        Jeff Little      Jose Valverde
Casey Janssen     RP     59%   35%    6% Jason Isringhausen          J.J. Putz          Tim Scott
Ricky Romero      SP     68%   27%    5%         Barry Zito     Wilson Alvarez      Chris Nabholz
Jason Frasor      RP     31%   52%   18%       Jeff Parrett      Bill Campbell       Rich DeLucia
Brandon Morrow    SP     46%   47%    6%      Bruce Berenyi        Juan Guzman         Bobby Witt
Shawn Camp        RP     21%   45%   34%      Mike Marshall     Mark Petkovsek         Bob Locker
Carlos Villanueva RP      6%   48%   46%         John Flinn    Mark Williamson     Keith Atherton
Henderson Alvarez SP     14%   61%   25%        Mike Miller           Tim Hamm         Chris Holt
Trystan Magnuson  RP      6%   42%   53%      Brian Schmack   Ehren Wassermann     Laddie Renfroe
Danny Farquhar    RP      3%   31%   66%     Marc Pisciotta         Mike Shade     Eddy Rodriguez
Brett Cecil       SP      5%   48%   47%      Lance Painter       John Cerutti        Frank Viola
Dustin McGowan    SP      8%   38%   54%          Kip Wells         Jason Bere          Tom Edens
Alan Farina       RP     11%   31%   58%         Josh Banks         Mario Soto         Bob Gibson
Aaron Laffey      RP      2%   25%   73%           Sal Urso    Anthony Ferrari          Mike Bell
Jesse Litsch      SP      7%   39%   54%         Doug Jones  Scott Klingenbeck      Mike Thompson
Evan Crawford     RP      2%   25%   72%       Mike Venafro        Clay Rapada         Gary Wayne
Jesse Chavez      RP      1%   19%   80%         Heath Bost       Travis Minix      Darren Hodges
Joel Carreno      SP      1%   22%   77%     Dennis Sarfate      Sean Douglass   Richard Bartlett
Willie Collazo    SP      2%   19%   79%        Tony Fossas       Jason Jacome         Curt Young
Brian Tallet      RP      3%   16%   81%       Kevin Hickey       Rigo Beltran   Larry McWilliams
Clint Everts      RP      1%   11%   88%       Mike Schultz     Ryan Henderson       Kevin Towers
Luis Perez        SP      0%   13%   87%          Brad Weis      Eddie Oropesa       Randy Flores
Kyle Drabek       SP      0%   10%   90%         Danny Kolb     Clint Sodowsky        Brandy Vann
Vince Perkins     RP      5%   10%   85%        Mike Barlow          Paul Giel        Gary Wagner
Jerry Gil         RP      0%    8%   92%      Marty McLeary       Maximo Nunez       Jake Robbins
Rommie Lewis      RP      0%    5%   95%         Joe Beimel        Bobby Bevel          Jake Benz
Ronald Uviedo     RP      0%    4%   96%      Jeff Robinson        Brett Myers          T.J. Beam
B.J. LaMura       SP      0%    4%   96%   Jarod Juelsgaard     Jason Grimsley            Ken Ray
Mike MacDonald    SP      0%    6%   94%         Mike Grace        Steve Comer           Joe Mays
Scott Richmond    SP      1%    6%   94%    Nerio Rodriguez    Jeremy Cummings          Dan Petry
Yohan Pino        SP      0%    1%   99%      Tim McClaskey        Kris Wilson    Brandon Emanuel
Chad Beck         SP      0%    2%   98%     Steven Jackson        Nick Masset    Jeff Farnsworth

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Jose Bautista           19%      81%      82%       0%       1%      74%      74%       0%
Brett Lawrie            15%       6%      42%       7%      46%      34%      13%      24%
Edwin Encarnacion        6%       6%      16%       0%       0%       5%       5%       0%
Adam Lind                6%       1%      17%       3%       1%      27%       3%       0%
Colby Rasmus             2%       3%      12%       1%       3%      14%       2%       1%
Yunel Escobar           14%      20%       2%       0%       0%       2%       2%       0%
Kelly Johnson            1%       3%       6%       1%       5%       7%       1%       2%
Ben Francisco            4%       5%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Thames              1%       1%       5%      11%      16%       7%       0%       0%
Travis d'Arnaud          3%       0%       5%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Travis Snider            1%       1%       3%       1%       0%       2%       0%       4%
Rajai Davis              6%       1%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%      70%
J.P. Arencibia           0%       0%       9%       1%       2%      19%       0%       0%
Luis Valbuena            2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       1%
David Cooper             1%       0%       0%      16%       0%       0%       0%       0%
A.J. Jimenez             3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%
Anthony Gose             1%       0%       4%       0%      32%       9%       1%      96%
Mike McDade              1%       0%       1%       4%       0%       4%       0%       0%
Mark Teahen              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Moises Sierra            2%       0%       3%       0%       1%       1%       0%       2%
Mike McCoy               1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Shealy              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Darin Mastroianni        0%       0%       0%       1%       6%       0%       0%      67%
Adeiny Hechavarria       1%       0%       2%       1%      14%       2%       0%       4%
Craig Stansberry         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Chris Woodward           0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Callix Crabbe            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jeff Mathis              0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Jeroloman          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Bocock             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Buzz Oliver               60%        92%        63%        38%        77%
Sergio Santos             56%        90%        97%         1%        76%
Casey Janssen             51%        92%        63%        19%        75%
Ricky Romero              27%        88%        19%         1%        58%
Jason Frasor              23%        77%        68%         1%        60%
Brandon Morrow            13%        74%        89%         0%        62%
Shawn Camp                17%        60%         2%        11%        71%
Carlos Villanueva          4%        42%         8%         3%        36%
Henderson Alvarez          2%        37%         0%        76%        27%
Trystan Magnuson           4%        33%         1%         1%        58%
Danny Farquhar             2%        28%        14%         0%        59%
Brett Cecil                0%        18%         2%         1%         7%
Dustin McGowan             1%        23%         8%         0%        36%
Alan Farina                7%        33%        28%         0%        67%
Aaron Laffey               2%        22%         0%         0%        46%
Jesse Litsch               1%        20%         2%         6%        23%
Evan Crawford              1%        22%         3%         0%        58%
Jesse Chavez               1%        16%         3%         6%        15%
Joel Carreno               0%         6%         6%         0%        23%
Willie Collazo             1%        16%         0%        18%        28%
Brian Tallet               2%        12%        11%         1%        17%
Clint Everts               0%         9%         6%         0%        45%
Luis Perez                 0%         3%         0%         0%        39%
Kyle Drabek                0%         1%         0%         0%        19%
Vince Perkins              3%        15%         4%         0%        54%
Jerry Gil                  0%         4%         4%         0%        37%
Rommie Lewis               0%         3%         1%         0%        20%
Ronald Uviedo              0%         2%        13%         0%         5%
B.J. LaMura                0%         3%         7%         0%        31%
Mike MacDonald             0%         1%         0%         3%        41%
Scott Richmond             0%         2%         3%         0%         5%
Yohan Pino                 0%         1%         0%         6%         2%
Chad Beck                  0%         0%         0%         0%        16%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-01-21T15:26:08+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_tampa_bay_rays Tampa Bay, ZIPS, Tampa won't have that starting rotation, forever. A team competing on a budget doesn't have the luxury of stashing too many extra arms away and a trade of one of their starters could help fill holes in the lineup. While the pitching is really good, the park and excellent defenses cause them to be a bit overrated, so when the opportunity comes to take advantage of it, the team won't say no.

Next Up: Toronto Blue Jays

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Evan Longoria     R    3B  26   .274 .367 .514 151 558  92 153  35   3  31 106  79 127   9   2  141
Ben Zobrist       B    2B  31   .261 .355 .444 143 514  83 134  32   4  18  80  76 112  17   5  119
Matthew Joyce     L    RF  27   .254 .342 .453 140 461  68 117  29   3  19  71  61 119  10   4  118
Desmond Jennings  R    CF  25   .259 .339 .392 156 590 100 153  28   7  12  54  62 119  38   7  102
Luke Scott        L    LF  34   .245 .325 .447  98 331  45  81  17   1  16  47  39  82   1   1  111
B.J. Upton        R    CF  27   .240 .329 .411 156 570  87 137  32   4  19  73  74 169  40  14  103
Casey Kotchman    L    1B  29   .272 .339 .395 138 463  45 126  23   2  10  56  41  56   2   1  103
Johnny Damon      L    LF  38   .256 .328 .406 134 515  72 132  29   6  12  59  51  88  14   4  102
Brandon Guyer     R    RF  26   .259 .310 .400 136 495  75 128  30   5  10  54  29 102  19   6   95
Manny Ramirez     R    DH  39   .241 .342 .363  91 270  33  65  12   0   7  37  37  78   1   1  101
Sean Rodriguez    R    SS  27   .230 .315 .391 133 409  58  94  21   3  13  49  38 120  11   5   94
Dan Johnson       L    1B  32   .230 .324 .383 126 439  55 101  19   0  16  59  60  99   0   1   95
Russ Canzler      R    RF  26   .237 .308 .390 138 469  59 111  27   3  13  63  47 143   4   4   92
Sam Fuld          L    LF  30   .245 .322 .348 120 371  55  91  17   6   3  30  41  50  17   8   86
Stephen Vogt      L    C   27   .255 .291 .381 110 423  46 108  23   3   8  54  22  74   2   1   84
Juan Miranda      L    1B  29   .223 .305 .369 111 355  39  79  15   2  11  43  39 104   1   1   86
Justin Ruggiano   R    LF  30   .232 .286 .361 108 388  47  90  18   1  10  47  27 118  15   4   78
Matt Mangini      L    1B  26   .249 .293 .351 114 430  53 107  16   2   8  64  25 112   4   1   78
Robinson Chirinos R    C   28   .237 .309 .358  97 338  34  80  16   2   7  38  30  78   1   3   84
Elliot Johnson    B    SS  28   .237 .287 .361  90 299  35  71  13   3   6  30  20  81  13   6   78
Jose Lobaton      B    C   27   .228 .305 .345  84 281  25  64  13   1   6  28  31  82   0   0   80
Jose Molina       R    C   37   .237 .296 .353  51 156  13  37   7   1   3  11  11  40   1   1   79
Hak-Ju Lee        L    SS  21   .248 .308 .326 151 626  91 155  21   8   4  36  50 143  30  17   76
Tim Beckham       R    SS  22   .239 .294 .336 156 614  86 147  27   4   8  63  46 169  19  11   74
Daniel Mayora     R    3B  26   .239 .292 .336 128 485  56 116  23   3   6  44  31 110   8   5   73
Leslie Anderson   L    1B  30   .250 .284 .340 121 476  42 119  19   0   8  48  18  70   2   3   72
Reid Brignac      L    SS  26   .239 .281 .338 126 397  42  95  17   2   6  41  22  90   5   4   71
Kyeong Kang       L    RF  24   .218 .297 .332 112 385  43  84  17   3   7  33  38 126   5   5   74
John Shelby       R    CF  26   .215 .251 .346 133 494  62 106  21   4  12  47  22 150  13   6   63
Nevin Ashley      R    C   27   .209 .279 .294 115 412  37  86  13   2   6  38  30 127   3   4   59
J.J. Furmaniak    R    2B  32   .211 .259 .285 114 389  39  82  18   1   3  29  23  87   7   3   51

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Evan Longoria                                 EX/74
Ben Zobrist                  AV/106   VG/74  AV/119  FR/112  VG/112   AV/94  VG/112
Matthew Joyce                                                 AV/84           AV/84
Desmond Jennings                                              VG/96   VG/68   VG/88
Luke Scott                   AV/115                           FR/83
B.J. Upton                                                            AV/85
Casey Kotchman                AV/39
Johnny Damon                                                 AV/116  PO/114
Brandon Guyer                                                 VG/95   FR/85  AV/102
Manny Ramirez                                                PO/147
Sean Rodriguez               VG/109   VG/94   AV/89  AV/121  AV/109  FR/105  AV/113
Dan Johnson                   AV/95           FR/89           FR/91
Russ Canzler                 AV/140          FR/140           AV/83          FR/127
Sam Fuld                                                     EX/104   AV/79  VG/111
Stephen Vogt             FR  FR/112
Juan Miranda                 AV/113
Justin Ruggiano                                              VG/110   FR/87   AV/97
Matt Mangini                 AV/150          AV/129
Robinson Chirinos        AV  AV/103
Elliot Johnson                       VG/103  AV/111  FR/100  VG/104          AV/107
Jose Lobaton             AV
Jose Molina              VG
Hak-Ju Lee                                           VG/148
Tim Beckham                                          AV/153
Daniel Mayora                        AV/122  AV/120  AV/113
Leslie Anderson              AV/117                           FR/99           FR/99
Reid Brignac                         AV/103           AV/90
Kyeong Kang                                                  AV/105          AV/144
John Shelby                                                  VG/135  AV/126  VG/135
Nevin Ashley             VG
J.J. Furmaniak                        AV/79   VG/89  AV/108  AV/109          AV/109                  

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
David Price       L     26    3.47    15    9   32   32  200.0  175   77   20   68  184  117
Jeremy Hellickson R     25    3.60    11    8   27   26  155.0  139   62   16   58  115  112
Matt Moore        L     23    3.72    10    7   29   27  145.0  126   60   14   69  150  109
James Shields     R     30    3.76    15   11   31   31  215.3  207   90   26   55  184  108
Alex Cobb         R     24    3.98     7    5   23   23  122.0  125   54   10   42   91  102
Jeff Niemann      R     29    4.12    10    9   27   27  157.3  154   72   19   49  116   98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Wade Davis        R     26    4.41    10   10   29   29  171.3  173   84   22   63  113   92
Alexander Torres  L     24    4.78     8    9   28   26  137.3  142   73   12   87  108   85
Nick Barnese      R     23    5.02     6    8   23   23  113.0  125   63   11   54   64   81
Christopher ArcherR     23    5.19     7    9   26   26  128.3  136   74   14   85   89   78
Andy Sonnanstine  R     29    5.23     5    7   30   13   98.0  115   57   15   30   50   77
Matt Torra        R     28    5.40     6    9   25   25  150.0  188   90   23   35   63   75
Wilking Rodriguez R     22    5.84     3    6   17   15   69.3   83   45   11   31   39   69
Albert Suarez     R     22    5.94     2    3   11    9   33.3   38   22    6   17   17   68
Alexander Colome  R     23    6.00     6   11   26   26  123.0  132   82   20   85   77   67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Kyle Farnsworth   R     36    3.26     3    2   52    0   49.7   43   18    5   14   47  124
Joel Peralta      R     36    3.39     3    2   58    0   58.3   51   22    6   18   51  119
Brandon Gomes     R     27    3.62     3    2   59    0   64.7   58   26    6   28   61  112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Josh Lueke        R     27    3.79     4    3   43    0   54.7   52   23    4   19   44  107
Burke Badenhop    R     29    3.88     3    3   56    0   72.0   73   31    5   26   49  104
J.P. Howell       L     29    3.99     4    4   58    0   47.3   42   21    5   23   47  101
Jake McGee        L     25    4.03     6    5   63    0   60.3   57   27    7   24   54  101
Juan Cruz         R     33    4.19     2    2   37    0   34.3   31   16    4   19   31   97
Ricky Orta        R     27    4.26     1    1   11    1   19.0   19    9    2    8   14   95
Fernando Rodney   R     35    4.32     4    3   53    0   50.0   47   24    4   28   40   94
Jay Buente        R     28    4.54     3    3   40    5   73.3   75   37    7   37   55   89
Joe Bateman       R     32    4.55     3    4   45    0   63.3   66   32    6   30   40   89
Matt Bush         R     26    4.63     3    3   26    0   35.0   34   18    4   17   33   87
Dane De La Rosa   R     29    4.67     5    6   54    0   71.3   74   37    8   32   55   87
Cesar Ramos       L     28    4.70     2    2   65    0   53.7   54   28    6   29   35   86
Dirk Hayhurst     R     31    4.80     4    4   25    8   65.7   73   35    8   23   38   84
Jhonny Nunez      R     26    5.21     4    5   40    5   67.3   73   39   10   32   48   78
Lance Cormier     R     31    5.31     3    4   42    2   62.7   73   37    8   26   29   76
Aaron Laffey      L     27    5.12     3    3   52    0   58.0   66   33    7   26   31   85
Jerry Gil         R     29    6.00     4    7   51    0   57.0   64   38    8   42   40   73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Johnny Damon        .282  .349  .430  2826 11079  1843  3123   606   127   261  1288  1120  1458   440   103
Evan Longoria       .266  .351  .476  2346  8759  1311  2327   532    41   410  1510  1108  1793   138   126
B.J. Upton          .244  .327  .400  2286  8409  1228  2048   468    51   248  1010  1029  2231   476    99
Ben Zobrist         .253  .337  .424  1708  6171   897  1562   354    56   196   897   797  1165   166   108
Casey Kotchman      .265  .332  .385  1510  5017   496  1331   260    14   104   609   443   551    18    95
Matthew Joyce       .247  .333  .435  1602  5197   718  1286   331    32   194   756   659  1193    89   111
Reid Brignac        .235  .278  .335   961  2926   305   687   125    12    48   301   166   660    29    69

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
David Price           192  132    0    3.63  438  431     2686 2371 1084  294  955 2497    113
James Shields         174  158    0    4.10  434  430     2888 2919 1317  388  726 2406     99
Jeff Niemann          110   97    0    4.30  297  289     1693 1679  808  222  548 1243     95

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Evan Longoria     3B    78%  16%   4%   1%   0%          Ron Santo        Scott Rolen      Harlond Clift
Ben Zobrist       2B    72%  15%   8%   4%   1%       Lou Whitaker         Ray Durham     Dick McAuliffe
Matthew Joyce     RF    23%  32%  20%  16%  10%    Michael Cuddyer        Leon Durham    Bobby Higginson
Desmond Jennings  CF    38%  26%  23%  10%   3%        Chad Curtis    Bernie Williams        Marlon Byrd
Luke Scott        LF    11%  24%  22%  22%  21%      Paul Sorrento       Johnny Grubb    Henry Rodriguez
B.J. Upton        CF    32%  24%  24%  14%   6%       Mike Cameron    Adolfo Phillips         Gary Redus
Casey Kotchman    1B     2%  10%  17%  38%  33%         Sean Casey       Bruce Bochte  Broderick Perkins
Johnny Damon      LF     7%  19%  19%  23%  32%        Bill Bruton        Wally Moses        Bud Stewart
Brandon Guyer     RF     3%  12%  17%  28%  40%   Juan Encarnacion        Alexis Rios      Ivan Calderon
Manny Ramirez     DH     3%  12%  16%  32%  38%          Hal McRae   Andres Galarraga      Cliff Johnson
Sean Rodriguez    SS    19%  27%  30%  16%   8%       Joe Redfield    Chris Clapinski       Chase Lambin
Dan Johnson       1B     1%   5%  10%  32%  52%       Kevin Barker      Graham Koonce       Ozzie Virgil
Russ Canzler      RF     1%   5%   9%  20%  66%         Jeff Baker      Chase Headley     Jeremy Slayden
Sam Fuld          LF     1%   3%   6%  15%  75%       Stubby Clapp     Terry Bradshaw      Rich Thompson
Stephen Vogt      C      3%  13%  22%  34%  27%    A.J. Pierzynski      Damian Miller         Mark Salas
Juan Miranda      1B     0%   2%   4%  18%  76%      Ray Giannelli          Ivan Cruz        Jeff Bailey
Justin Ruggiano   LF     1%   2%   4%  12%  82%     Terrell Lowery        Chris Sheff         Emil Brown
Matt Mangini      1B     0%   1%   2%   9%  88%          Rich Lane      Lonnie Maclin     Mike Maksudian
Robinson Chirinos C      2%  10%  19%  34%  35%       Chad Moeller      Blake Barthol           Del Rice
Elliot Johnson    SS     5%   7%  18%  26%  44%        Ricky Adams     Chris Woodward         Nick Green
Jose Lobaton      C      2%   9%  16%  33%  39%        Dusty Brown           Del Rice     Gilberto Reyes
Jose Molina       C      4%  10%  14%  27%  46%          Phil Masi         Mike Heath        Joe Girardi
Hak-Ju Lee        SS     1%   5%  15%  26%  52%    Alfredo Griffin      Royce Clayton          Juan Bell
Tim Beckham       SS     3%   4%  12%  24%  57%      Josh Barfield    Tony Perezchica     George Hinshaw
Daniel Mayora     3B     0%   1%   2%   7%  90%     Nelson Johnson         Garth Iorg       Jeff Moronko
Leslie Anderson   1B     0%   0%   0%   2%  97%     Mike Robertson   Francisco Santos         Jim O'Dell
Reid Brignac      SS     1%   3%   8%  21%  68%        Mendy LopezChristopher Johnson        Tomas Perez
Kyeong Kang       RF     0%   1%   2%   4%  93%         Mike Neill       Rick Sofield       Craig Cooper
John Shelby       CF     0%   0%   1%   5%  94%         Jason Ross       Barry Wesson     Michael Mooney
Nevin Ashley      C      0%   1%   2%   5%  93%  Francisco Morales        Ryan Luther     Scott Sandusky
J.J. Furmaniak    2B     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%     Chris Petersen        Frank Duffy  Trace Coquillette

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Kyle Farnsworth   RP     47%   43%    9%       Todd Worrell          Lee Smith         Jay Howell
Joel Peralta      RP     44%   43%   14%    Jeff Montgomery         Steve Reed       Jeff Reardon
David Price       SP     66%   29%    5%         Randy Wolf      Tom Underwood     Wilson Alvarez
Jeremy Hellickson SP     58%   37%    5%        Jason Hirsh      Freddy Garcia         Aaron Sele
Brandon Gomes     RP     32%   50%   19%      Jorge Vasquez     Bobby Castillo           Ken Ryan
Matt Moore        SP     50%   43%    7%      Dave Righetti       Scott Kazmir      Tony Saunders
James Shields     SP     48%   47%    5%         Jon Lieber     Javier Vazquez     Dennis Leonard
Josh Lueke        RP     26%   48%   26%      Mark Huismann      Derek Wallace   Randy St. Claire
Burke Badenhop    RP     21%   53%   26%      Gary Majewski          Mark Ross       Jerry Dipoto
Alex Cobb         SP     39%   50%   10%         Roy Oswalt      Marty Bystrom    George Stablein
J.P. Howell       RP     14%   47%   39%    Armando Almanza       Yorkis Perez      Jack Taschner
Jake McGee        RP     16%   50%   35%       Yorkis Perez      Felix Heredia          Jim Poole
Jeff Niemann      SP     23%   59%   18%    Nelson Figueroa      James Baldwin      Ismael Valdez
Juan Cruz         RP     16%   37%   47%         Roy Thomas       Toby Borland       Rich DeLucia
Ricky Orta        RP     17%   37%   46%       Gordon Jones    Derrick Turnbow      Jose Calderon
Fernando Rodney   RP     16%   36%   48%         Ryne Duren       Rich DeLucia    Ricky Bottalico
Wade Davis        SP     13%   53%   34%         Paul Voigt    William Brennan         Doug Jones
Jay Buente        RP      3%   31%   66%          Roy Smith     Ryan Henderson        Marcus Gwyn
Joe Bateman       RP      6%   39%   56%       Marc Wilkins     Dave Wainhouse        Dale Murray
Matt Bush         RP     11%   32%   57%       Brian Bruney        Colter Bean   Santiago Casilla
Dane De La Rosa   RP      3%   29%   69%      Jim Dougherty     Dwight Bernard       Dave Stevens
Cesar Ramos       RP      4%   29%   67%        Kevin Tolar          Tom Doyle      Jason Jimenez
Alexander Torres  SP      4%   41%   55%      Luis Martinez      Trevor Wilson      Mark Langston
Dirk Hayhurst     RP      3%   27%   70%       Danny Graves      Sam Arrington           Tim Pugh
Nick Barnese      SP      2%   27%   70%      Jeff Fulchino      Justin Sturge        Dave Hooten
Christopher ArcherSP      1%   17%   82%         Kevin Ritz     Larry Mitchell       Sean Bergman
Jhonny Nunez      RP      1%   15%   84%       Dave Johnson       Jeff McCurry        Travis Wade
Andy Sonnanstine  SP      1%   10%   89%      Justin Miller        Kris Wilson      Tim McClaskey
Lance Cormier     RP      1%   10%   89%      Mike Sullivan        Bob Scanlan     Brandon Puffer
Matt Torra        SP      1%   10%   89%       Heath Totten        Josh Towers     Dave Borkowski
Wilking Rodriguez SP      0%    7%   93%       Sonny Garcia       Warren Wiley     Patrick Coogan
Albert Suarez     SP      3%   15%   83%          Steve Gay      Steve Schrenk       Billy Traber
Alexander Colome  SP      0%    2%   98%      Matt Peterson        Mike Buddie     Luther Hackman
Aaron Laffey      RP      2%   25%   73%           Sal Urso    Anthony Ferrari          Mike Bell
Jerry Gil         RP      0%    8%   92%      Marty McLeary       Maximo Nunez       Jake Robbins

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Evan Longoria           16%      40%      59%      10%       2%      54%      50%       1%
Ben Zobrist              6%      23%      12%       4%       5%       5%      14%       9%
Matthew Joyce            3%      12%      13%       2%       1%       5%      10%       3%
Desmond Jennings         4%       8%       0%       2%      25%       0%       1%      77%
Luke Scott               3%       5%      10%       0%       0%       1%       5%       0%
B.J. Upton               0%       4%       2%       5%       4%       6%       2%      80%
Casey Kotchman          12%       8%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Johnny Damon             5%       4%       1%       2%      12%       0%       1%       4%
Brandon Guyer            4%       1%       1%       2%       6%       0%       0%       8%
Manny Ramirez            3%      16%       1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Sean Rodriguez           0%       2%       2%       0%       1%       1%       1%       1%
Dan Johnson              0%       3%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Russ Canzler             0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Sam Fuld                 2%       2%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       4%
Stephen Vogt             4%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Juan Miranda             0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Ruggiano          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Matt Mangini             1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Robinson Chirinos        1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Elliot Johnson           1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Jose Lobaton             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Molina              5%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Hak-Ju Lee               1%       1%       0%       0%      32%       0%       0%      45%
Tim Beckham              0%       0%       0%       1%       7%       1%       0%       9%
Daniel Mayora            0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Leslie Anderson          1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reid Brignac             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kyeong Kang              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
John Shelby              0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       1%
Nevin Ashley             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
J.J. Furmaniak           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Kyle Farnsworth           47%        86%        67%        22%        82%
Joel Peralta              35%        81%        39%        15%        56%
David Price               28%        87%        59%         3%        71%
Jeremy Hellickson         19%        82%         6%         0%        67%
Brandon Gomes             25%        76%        63%         0%        78%
Matt Moore                16%        73%        91%         0%        72%
James Shields             11%        74%        35%        26%        42%
Josh Lueke                26%        67%        19%         5%        85%
Burke Badenhop            16%        61%         2%         3%        93%
Alex Cobb                  9%        65%         6%         2%        89%
J.P. Howell               14%        52%        74%         0%        53%
Jake McGee                11%        58%        44%         1%        64%
Jeff Niemann               3%        50%         4%         4%        38%
Juan Cruz                 10%        43%        50%         0%        65%
Ricky Orta                17%        41%        18%        11%        58%
Fernando Rodney           12%        44%        19%         0%        84%
Wade Davis                 1%        31%         1%         0%        38%
Jay Buente                 2%        28%         8%         0%        67%
Joe Bateman                6%        31%         2%         1%        75%
Matt Bush                 11%        34%        59%         1%        54%
Dane De La Rosa            2%        25%        11%         0%        60%
Cesar Ramos                3%        26%         1%         0%        64%
Alexander Torres           0%        15%        13%         0%        85%
Dirk Hayhurst              2%        19%         2%         8%        44%
Nick Barnese               0%        10%         0%         0%        72%
Christopher Archer         0%         4%         2%         0%        57%
Jhonny Nunez               0%         9%         3%         0%        40%
Andy Sonnanstine           1%         7%         0%         9%        25%
Lance Cormier              1%         9%         0%         1%        40%
Matt Torra                 1%         3%         0%        46%        19%
Wilking Rodriguez          0%         2%         0%         0%        23%
Albert Suarez              1%         8%         1%         1%        30%
Alexander Colome           0%         0%         1%         0%        12%
Aaron Laffey               2%        22%         0%         0%        46%
Jerry Gil                  0%         4%         4%         0%        37%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-01-18T20:01:09+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/mariners_acquired_montero1 NY Yankees, Seattle, Seattle Mariners acquire C Jesus Montero for P Michael Pineda and P Jose Campos

ZiPS projected Montero at .271/.333/.486 in Yankee Stadium. Good enough for a 112 OPS+. He’s going to a much tougher place to hit, so the raw stat line is not going to be nearly as pretty to get the same value. Let’s put it this way. Justin Smoak (a name not chosen at random of course) put up a 104 OPS+ with .234/.323/.396. I like Montero an awful lot but I’d downgrade him a fair amount in anything like a Strat keeper league.

Will he catch? Far from a given even with the Mariners. ZiPS sees Todd Zeile and Mike Sweeney as his most comparable players and neither stayed behind the plate. I see him as unlikely to be an impact player unless he can stick as a catcher. The Mariners are in a position to find out if he really can handle the position and I expect them to do so. His arm isn’t likely to be a deal breaker (he wasn’t awful against the running game in the minors). He appears to have the required agility to handle the position. In other words he’s got at least the minimum level of athleticism to be adequate at the position. He’s unlikely to ever be really good there, but you can live with that if the bat is good enough. ZiPS estimates a roughly 65% chance of his being very good or better (offensively) for a catcher next year.

That said, a word of caution is in order. The way the Yankees have handled him over the last two years makes it pretty clear that they didn’t think he’d be adequate behind the plate. As I say, the Mariners are in a position to find out whether they were wrong.

For the Yankees this is about dealing what they perceive to be surplus talent (Montero has no great value to the Yankees if he is not catching) for a pitcher who rates to be able to step into the rotation and be a big net positive. ZiPS projects a 112 OPS+. He’s got a nice strikeout rate, his control is a little worse than you’d like and his stuff is such that nobody would be shocked if he became an impact player. It’s also not that different that what’s you’d have projected for A. J. Burnett when they signed him (yes, Pineda is younger and much cheaper. I’m talking here about what it would be reasonable to expect on the mound)

You just never know with pitchers. I like Pineda nearly as much as I like Montero and Pineda is a better fit for the Yankees (given that Montero wasn’t going to catch). However David Neid is Pineda’s #3 comp according to ZiPS and somehow I thing the Yankees would be unhappy if that’s how it all works out.

All in all I’d be tempted to make this deal were I running the Yankees even though I seem to be more optimistic that Montero can handle catching than they are. There’s an awful lot to like about Pineda and starting pitching is an obvious need for the Yankees. Which brings us to Jose Campos. He’s an 19 year old suspect of a different kind. He’s figured out the strike zone already, has 30 minor league starts under his belt and gets his share of strikeouts. All I can say about him right now is that I expect success at AA—possibly blowing through the level quickly. The point though is that I have no idea what his ceiling is. It’s certainly possible—if unlikely—that he alone could be worth Montero.

He’s a guy I’d be very happy to add to my organization.

A truly fascinating deal. It’s one that I’d have made if I were running either team. And it’s really a deal that could get either GM fired since every player involved looks to be a high variance player. As you’d expect of players who are basically unfinished.

Dayton Moore has put together a very good farm system -- hardly surprising for a guy who came up through player development -- but I've seen absolutely nothing yet that suggests that he has the ability to take all these ingredients at his disposal and bake KC a winner.

Next Up: Tampa Bay Rays

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Eric Hosmer       L    1B  22   .304 .354 .474 156 625  82 190  36   5  20  81  50  92  14   4  123
Billy Butler      R    1B  26   .295 .362 .462 156 586  74 173  41   0  19  83  62  89   1   1  123
Alex Gordon       L    LF  28   .278 .358 .464 139 547  87 152  36   3  20  73  63 127  14   7  122
Mike Moustakas    L    3B  23   .274 .316 .436 152 613  72 168  38   2  19  81  36 100   3   1  102
Jeff Francoeur    R    RF  28   .273 .314 .437 156 583  70 159  37   4  17  77  32 111  13   6  102
Johnny Giavotella R    2B  24   .271 .320 .384 156 627  83 170  35   6   8  64  44  90  13   7   91
Clint Robinson    L    1B  27   .258 .309 .400 142 543  65 140  31   2  14  64  37 114   2   2   91
Lorenzo Cain      R    CF  26   .259 .314 .370 135 521  65 135  25   6   7  46  35 122  17   5   86
Salvador Perez    R    C   22   .274 .303 .393 146 547  55 150  29   3  10  66  21  69   0   1   88
Alcides Escobar   R    SS  25   .270 .309 .366 156 563  75 152  23   8   5  46  29  77  25   8   83
Brayan Pena       B    C   30   .267 .310 .380  73 221  19  59  13   0   4  26  13  26   2   1   87
Mitch Maier       L    LF  30   .246 .324 .353  92 272  35  67  12   4   3  24  30  58   4   2   85
Chris Getz        L    2B  28   .266 .323 .320 112 372  48  99  13   2   1  30  28  47  19   5   76
Wil Myers         R    RF  21   .235 .317 .361 133 498  55 117  29   2  10  57  57 138  10   5   85
Yuniesky BetancourR    SS  30   .262 .283 .385 149 543  53 142  28   3  11  63  18  55   3   4   80
David Lough       L    LF  26   .255 .297 .362 139 550  72 140  21   7   8  50  29  82  13   9   79
Max Ramirez       R    C   27   .232 .296 .363  90 306  34  71  14   1   8  42  26  88   0   0   79
Jarrod Dyson      L    CF  27   .237 .290 .302 105 388  52  92  13   3   2  28  28  81  35   6   62
Manny Pina        R    C   25   .227 .316 .326  86 282  35  64  16   0   4  26  29  58   0   0   76
Cheslor Cuthbert  R    3B  19   .232 .285 .354 106 410  36  95  17   0  11  56  31 105   2   0   73
Tony Abreu        B    2B  27   .247 .280 .352 121 446  52 110  21   4   6  46  19  99   7   5   71
Christian Colon   R    SS  23   .251 .297 .327 124 499  63 125  16   2   6  49  28  62  10   7   70
Irving Falu       B    RF  29   .254 .296 .315 122 473  56 120  13   5   2  38  29  49  12   7   67
Cody Clark        R    C   30   .236 .282 .338  63 195  20  46  11   0   3  16  11  36   1   1   68
Eric Duncan       L    LF  27   .222 .264 .342 119 424  47  94  20   2   9  41  24 119   3   2   64
Derrick Robinson  B    CF  24   .233 .279 .291 139 570  68 133  17   5   2  36  36 127  47  19   56
Mario Lisson      R    3B  28   .207 .255 .324 122 435  49  90  22   1   9  41  24 138  15   4   57
Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Eric Hosmer                  FR/113
Billy Butler                  FR/96
Alex Gordon                  AV/117          AV/132           AV/81          FR/126
Mike Moustakas                               AV/109
Jeff Francoeur                                                FR/70           FR/70
Johnny Giavotella                    AV/127                  AV/117
Clint Robinson               AV/161                          FR/120
Lorenzo Cain                                                 VG/139  AV/135  VG/139
Salvador Perez           VG
Alcides Escobar                      VG/121           VG/89                  VG/118
Brayan Pena              VG                                  FR/120
Mitch Maier                                                   AV/88   AV/43  AV/113
Chris Getz                            AV/77  AV/119  FR/116
Wil Myers                FR                                  AV/133  FR/126  AV/133
Yuniesky Betancourt                                   PO/96
David Lough                                                  VG/123   AV/97   AV/95
Max Ramirez              FR  FR/118
Jarrod Dyson                                                 VG/112  VG/141  VG/112
Manny Pina               VG
Cheslor Cuthbert                             FR/110
Tony Abreu                           AV/105   VG/94  FR/121
Christian Colon                      VG/105          VG/127
Irving Falu                           FR/98  AV/101  FR/140          AV/114   AV/90
Cody Clark               FR
Eric Duncan                  AV/136  PO/113  PO/116           FR/92          PO/114
Derrick Robinson                                             VG/104  VG/153
Mario Lisson                                 AV/112  FR/117
                  
Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jonathan Sanchez  L     29    4.36     8    8   26   25  136.3  125   66   15   79  126   95
Bruce Chen        L     35    4.53     8    9   26   22  131.0  138   66   16   47   86   91
Luke Hochevar     R     28    4.66     9   10   26   26  158.3  167   82   19   51  106   89
Felipe Paulino    R     28    4.69     6    7   30   19  121.0  129   63   12   51  102   88
Jeff Francis      L     31    4.72     7    8   24   24  139.3  161   73   15   33   72   88
John Lamb         L     21    4.85     4    5   17   17   78.0   85   42    7   37   49   86
Mike Montgomery   L     22    4.92     6    8   24   23  119.0  131   65   12   53   78   84
Danny Duffy       L     23    4.92     6    7   22   22  113.3  121   62   16   46   92   84
Nathan Adcock     R     24    4.97     4    5   26   12   88.7  101   49    9   37   48   83
Luis Mendoza      R     28    4.99     7    9   28   19  122.7  144   68   11   49   51   83
Vin Mazzaro       R     25    5.13     6    8   27   24  142.0  165   81   16   60   87   81
Jake Odorizzi     R     22    5.40     6    9   25   24  123.3  140   74   18   55   86   77
Everett Teaford   L     28    5.42     5    8   33   13   89.7  100   54   15   38   57   76
Sean O'Sullivan   R     24    5.64     6   11   27   24  132.3  162   83   18   45   63   73
Noel Arguelles    L     22    5.72     3    6   22   22   94.3  119   60   12   33   37   72
Ryan Verdugo      L     25    5.75     5    9   22   22  114.3  125   73   15   80   90   72
Will Smith        L     22    5.76     7   12   26   26  143.7  182   92   19   51   71   72
Jeff Suppan       R     37    5.78     5    9   24   20  118.3  153   76   17   43   50   72
Kevin Pucetas     R     27    5.86     4    8   29   19  116.7  148   76   16   47   57   71
Chris Dwyer       L     24    5.89     6   11   26   26  123.7  137   81   16   85   81   70
Timothy Melville  R     22    6.81     5   13   26   24  111.0  151   84   15   64   55   61

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joakim Soria      R     28    3.32     4    2   58    0   59.7   53   22    6   17   64  125
Jonathan Broxton  R     28    3.50     4    3   44    0   43.7   38   17    4   20   50  118
Louis Coleman     R     26    3.67     4    3   42    0   61.3   54   25    7   25   61  113
Greg Holland      R     26    3.73     4    3   50    0   70.0   62   29    6   33   70  111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Kelvin Herrera    R     22    3.90     5    4   49    0   67.0   62   29    9   19   54  106
Tim Collins       L     22    4.05     4    3   65    0   66.7   57   30    6   42   67  102
Blake Wood        R     26    4.24     4    4   59    0   70.0   69   33    6   30   54   98
Jose Mijares      L     27    4.38     1    1   60    0   49.3   50   24    5   23   37   95
Aaron Crow        R     25    4.54     4    4   64    0   67.3   67   34    8   34   61   91
Jeremy Jeffress   R     24    4.97     2    3   47    0   41.7   43   23    4   26   30   83
Zach Miner        R     30    5.33     4    6   33    9   72.7   84   43    9   34   42   78
Tommy Hottovy     L     30    6.04     1    2   35    0   50.7   60   34    8   27   30   69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Eric Hosmer         .295  .353  .470  2375  9418  1243  2781   529    80   318  1238   863  1322   256   122
Billy Butler        .286  .352  .438  2255  8455   998  2416   567     3   239  1138   867  1208    14   114
Alex Gordon         .266  .342  .434  1775  6891   997  1832   433    35   219   840   737  1472   145   110
Jeff Francoeur      .269  .311  .426  2023  7625   921  2049   450    42   223  1037   414  1382   116    96
Yuniesky Betancour  .263  .285  .381  1693  6116   627  1608   316    39   109   669   204   584    44    79
Chris Getz          .259  .317  .312   698  2281   287   591    78    14     5   177   178   280   119    72

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jeff Francis           98  111    0    4.82  311  310     1809 2069  969  215  506 1069     92
Bruce Chen             95  100    1    4.63  430  268     1739 1792  894  279  661 1247     92
Jonathan Sanchez       93  106    0    4.43  364  302     1687 1520  830  190  965 1638     94

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Eric Hosmer       1B    26%  38%  19%  13%   4%         Joe Vosmik       Dan Driessen         Kent Hrbek
Billy Butler      1B    22%  37%  21%  16%   4%       Paul Konerko       Mike Sweeney         Sean Casey
Alex Gordon       LF    34%  32%  15%  11%   8%    Willie Crawford        Rusty Greer        Jim Edmonds
Mike Moustakas    3B    10%  24%  26%  23%  17%     Aramis Ramirez          Joe Crede        Mike Lowell
Jeff Francoeur    RF     3%  15%  20%  27%  35%        Wil Cordero       Glenn Wilson       Jermaine Dye
Johnny Giavotella 2B     8%  10%  17%  28%  38%         Jose Lopez    Joseph Thurston        Robin Yount
Clint Robinson    1B     0%   2%   6%  26%  65%       Shawn W00t3n        Danny Lewis          Adam Lind
Lorenzo Cain      CF     4%   9%  24%  34%  30%        Alexis Rios    Reggie Williams        Xavier Paul
Salvador Perez    C      5%  18%  23%  32%  22%      Bengie Molina       Matt Walbeck         Einar Diaz
Alcides Escobar   SS     7%  18%  32%  26%  17%      Royce Clayton    Cristian Guzman      Cesar Izturis
Brayan Pena       C      5%  16%  23%  33%  23%         Jason Hill      John Flaherty       Sandy Alomar
Mitch Maier       LF     0%   2%   4%  12%  82%      Cory Sullivan       Pat Sheridan      Terry Bogener
Chris Getz        2B     3%   6%  12%  25%  54%      Bernie Castro       Mike Woodard     Mrs. Lee Judge
Wil Myers         RF     1%   3%   5%  12%  78%        Brad Nelson       Mike Edwards       Jayson Werth
Yuniesky BetancourSS     2%   8%  19%  31%  41%    Virgil Stallcup  Aurelio Rodriguez         Deivi Cruz
David Lough       LF     0%   0%   1%   6%  92%    Willie Crawford        Rusty Greer        Jim Edmonds
Max Ramirez       C      2%   7%  14%  33%  45%     Gilberto Reyes       Alvin Colina        Dusty Brown
Jarrod Dyson      CF     1%   2%   9%  24%  64%       Nyjer Morgan        Adam Godwin     Jose Constanza
Manny Pina        C      2%   6%  11%  29%  53%       Mike Nickeas          Rob Bowen       Matt Garrick
Cheslor Cuthbert  3B     1%   3%   6%  11%  79%         Vince Rooi       Ramon Castro        John Hattig
Tony Abreu        2B     0%   1%   1%   6%  92%      Fred Manrique        Victor Mata      Tommy Shields
Christian Colon   SS     2%   3%   7%  16%  71%        Al Pedrique      Julio Cordido      John McDonald
Irving Falu       RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%       Tom Runnells      Terry Blocker        Jose Macias
Cody Clark        C      1%   3%   6%  17%  73%     Charlie Greene       Pedro Grifol       Henry Blanco
Eric Duncan       LF     0%   0%   0%   0%  99%       Phil Geisler       John Giudice       Jason Aspito
Derrick Robinson  CF     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%          Eric Reed      Jesus Tavarez         Randy Winn
Mario Lisson      3B     0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Kody Kirkland       David Maroul          Ray Thoma

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joakim Soria      RP     61%   33%    6%     Trevor Hoffman      Mike Schooler           Robb Nen
Jonathan Broxton  RP     43%   42%   16%         Ryne Duren        Jeff Little        Rich Garces
Louis Coleman     RP     32%   50%   18%      Jose Valverde       Stan Belinda   Fernando Cabrera
Greg Holland      RP     30%   57%   13%       Mark Littell       Bryce Florie         Brad Lidge
Kelvin Herrera    RP     21%   54%   24%        Edwin Nunez      Chris Britton   Oscar Villarreal
Tim Collins       RP     19%   52%   29%     Mitch Williams        John Rocker      Darren Oliver
Blake Wood        RP     11%   50%   39%        Joe Bateman     Jailen Peguero      J.J. Trujillo
Jonathan Sanchez  SP     21%   53%   26%      Randy Johnson         Tim Lollar          Al Leiter
Jose Mijares      RP     13%   45%   42%     Ricardo Jordan      Chris Marchok      Felix Heredia
Bruce Chen        SP     10%   50%   40%    Paul Splittorff       Jim Deshaies      Mike Flanagan
Aaron Crow        RP      6%   40%   54%          Ben Hayes       Bo Donaldson      Darrin Chapin
Luke Hochevar     SP      6%   47%   47%     Richard Dotson          Luis Leal      Mike Gardiner
Felipe Paulino    SP      7%   49%   44%       Britt Reames       Jaret Wright         Steve Mura
Jeff Francis      SP     11%   47%   42%   Mark Hendrickson      Greg Swindell    Andrew Lorraine
John Lamb         SP      8%   44%   48%     Nate Robertson           Eric Cyr      Chris Hancock
Mike Montgomery   SP      3%   38%   60%         Matt Young   Brandon Claussen       John Daniels
Danny Duffy       SP      5%   38%   57%       Ray Fontenot      Blaise Ilsley         Matt Beech
Jeremy Jeffress   RP      6%   27%   67%          Bob Welch         Mario Soto         Jeff Smith
Nathan Adcock     SP      1%   21%   78%       Justin James       Andy Nezelek      Doug Potestio
Luis Mendoza      SP      8%   35%   57%         Bill Swift        Tommie Sisk          Howie Fox
Vin Mazzaro       SP      1%   29%   69%       Mitch Talbot         Joe Bitker       Don Robinson
Zach Miner        RP      0%   13%   87%       Leo Estrella     Mike Heathcott         Scott Brow
Jake Odorizzi     SP      1%   16%   83%       Adam Johnson      Ramon Ramirez         Jason Bell
Everett Teaford   SP      0%    7%   93%      Craig Minetto        Mike Porzio       Tommy Phelps
Sean O'Sullivan   SP      0%    9%   91%        Andy Ghelfi    Cameron Reimers      Brandon Leese
Noel Arguelles    SP      0%    8%   91%       Jon Connolly      Jason Gooding     Travis Baptist
Ryan Verdugo      SP      0%    7%   93%       Adam Bostick        Les Walrond       Steve Searcy
Will Smith        SP      0%    5%   95%   Bobby Livingston     Heath Phillips    Andy Van Hekken
Jeff Suppan       SP      1%    9%   90%    Dennis Springer         Aaron Sele       Kevin Jarvis
Kevin Pucetas     SP      0%    5%   94%        Pat Ahearne        Jim Magrane        Steve Finch
Chris Dwyer       SP      0%    4%   96%     Brian O'Connor           Tim Cole    Daniel Haigwood
Tommy Hottovy     RP      0%    4%   96%     Rusty Gerhardt        Mark Watson      Scott Watkins
Timothy Melville  SP      0%    0%  100%       Chris Kinsey      Matt Achilles      Mark Woodyard

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Eric Hosmer             57%      21%      25%      22%      11%      14%      17%       6%
Billy Butler            41%      30%      17%      46%       0%       8%      16%       0%
Alex Gordon             19%      25%      21%      16%       2%       9%      16%       6%
Mike Moustakas          13%       1%       8%      24%       1%       8%       3%       0%
Jeff Francoeur          11%       1%       3%      16%       2%       1%       1%       3%
Johnny Giavotella        9%       1%       1%      16%      18%       0%       0%       4%
Clint Robinson           2%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Lorenzo Cain             4%       1%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       3%
Salvador Perez          13%       0%       2%       3%       3%       1%       1%       0%
Alcides Escobar         10%       0%       0%       0%      35%       0%       0%      29%
Brayan Pena             15%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mitch Maier              4%       5%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Getz              10%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      10%
Wil Myers                0%       2%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Yuniesky Betancour       5%       0%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%
David Lough              3%       0%       0%       0%      22%       0%       0%       3%
Max Ramirez              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jarrod Dyson             1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      70%
Manny Pina               1%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cheslor Cuthbert         1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Tony Abreu               1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Christian Colon          2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Irving Falu              2%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Clark               3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Duncan              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Derrick Robinson         0%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%      94%
Mario Lisson             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joakim Soria              52%        91%        92%        19%        79%
Jonathan Broxton          33%        78%        94%         1%        84%
Louis Coleman             25%        77%        75%         1%        63%
Greg Holland              24%        78%        81%         0%        86%
Kelvin Herrera            16%        70%        20%        20%        35%
Tim Collins               14%        58%        80%         0%        70%
Blake Wood                 8%        54%        11%         0%        83%
Jonathan Sanchez           4%        43%        62%         0%        56%
Jose Mijares               9%        41%         8%         0%        77%
Bruce Chen                 1%        26%         4%         2%        45%
Aaron Crow                 6%        39%        50%         0%        42%
Luke Hochevar              0%        21%         1%         2%        47%
Felipe Paulino             1%        24%        29%         0%        64%
Jeff Francis               2%        25%         1%        46%        64%
John Lamb                  1%        23%         0%         0%        81%
Mike Montgomery            0%        13%         0%         0%        69%
Danny Duffy                1%        15%        19%         0%        33%
Jeremy Jeffress            3%        25%         7%         0%        79%
Nathan Adcock              1%        14%         0%         1%        69%
Luis Mendoza               2%        19%         0%         1%        83%
Vin Mazzaro                0%         8%         0%         0%        62%
Zach Miner                 0%         8%         2%         0%        47%
Jake Odorizzi              0%         4%         1%         0%        27%
Everett Teaford            0%         4%         0%         0%        14%
Sean O'Sullivan            0%         1%         0%         3%        31%
Noel Arguelles             0%         1%         0%         3%        43%
Ryan Verdugo               0%         1%        12%         0%        36%
Will Smith                 0%         0%         0%         1%        29%
Jeff Suppan                0%         3%         0%         4%        32%
Kevin Pucetas              0%         1%         0%         0%        31%
Chris Dwyer                0%         0%         0%         0%        39%
Tommy Hottovy              0%         3%         1%         0%        28%
Timothy Melville           0%         0%         0%         0%        26%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-01-13T20:11:38+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_cincinnati_reds Cincinnati, Projections, ZIPS, While the team could use an extra impact bat (despite finishing 2nd in the league in runs scored, they only had a 98 OPS+), but at this point, they probably need to sign a few low-risk, upside pitcher signings, simply to bolster the organizational lack at the upper levels. The very few minor league free agents they've signed (Sean Gallagher, Luis Atilano, Clayton Tanner) really shouldn't pitch in the majors - Gallagher had promise, but he hasn't pitched well at all in a long time. If the Reds aren't going to spend a lot of money and go after Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, they really need to be in on guys like Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis.

Next Up: Kansas City Royals

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Joey Votto        L    1B   28   .294 .402 .529 150 544  93 160  34   2  30 102  96 124  11   5  148
Jay Bruce         L    RF   25   .260 .340 .474 152 546  81 142  25   4  28  90  65 148   8   6  116
Brandon Phillips  R    2B   31   .279 .331 .436 150 603  87 168  33   4  18  80  42  83  17  10  104
Chris Heisey      R    LF   27   .258 .317 .446 134 395  59 102  19   2  17  57  29  94  10   2  102
Juan Francisco    L    3B   25   .267 .297 .480 143 529  65 141  33   4  24  85  21 141   2   1  104
Scott Rolen       R    3B   37   .260 .315 .441  84 311  38  81  23   3   9  51  22  50   1   1  100
Devin Mesoraco    R    C    24   .248 .322 .432 136 484  57 120  30   4  17  68  48 117   1   2  100
Miguel Cairo      R    3B   38   .265 .328 .403  90 211  27  56   9   1   6  28  16  32   3   2   95
Drew Stubbs       R    CF   27   .240 .317 .388 154 578  87 139  24   5  17  60  61 190  37   9   88
Ryan Hanigan      R    C    31   .267 .358 .355  91 273  28  73   9   0   5  31  35  34   0   0   92
Henry Rodriguez   B    2B   22   .279 .315 .393 156 641  64 179  33   2  12  77  31 108  31  15   89
Todd Frazier      R    3B   26   .242 .307 .423 148 532  70 129  30   3  20  71  44 140  13   6   94
Neftali Soto      R    1B   23   .245 .290 .450 140 542  59 133  24   3  27  80  28 145   0   1   95
Donald Lutz       L    1B   23   .262 .306 .417 149 576  65 151  23   3  20  76  30 170   5   6   92
Daniel Dorn       L    1B   27   .233 .300 .421 121 420  50  98  24   2  17  60  35 135   2   0   91
Zack Cozart       R    SS   26   .253 .304 .398 130 518  76 131  28   4  13  52  34 108  12   3   86
Eric Campbell     R    3B   26   .239 .302 .385 130 468  53 112  24   1  14  61  37  97   3   3   83
Edgar Renteria    R    SS   34   .254 .309 .347  98 331  37  84  14   1   5  38  27  60   4   2   76
Corky Miller      R    C    36   .230 .317 .348  59 178  21  41   9   0   4  21  18  34   0   0   78
Chris Valaika     R    2B   26   .255 .287 .362 142 517  52 132  24   2   9  50  22 102   2   1   73
Denis Phipps      R    CF   26   .242 .287 .374 147 554  64 134  28   6  11  57  34 170  12   8   76
Cody Puckett      R    2B   25   .221 .274 .377 134 506  54 112  30   2  15  64  32 162  13   3   73
Daryl Jones       L    LF   25   .236 .311 .350 120 403  47  95  15   5   7  38  39 115   8   7   77
Didi Gregorius    L    SS   22   .259 .296 .359 127 529  53 137  18   7   7  47  26  88  13  12   75
Brodie Greene     R    2B   24   .247 .290 .341 129 510  48 126  17   5   7  49  29  99  22   9   69
Ryan LaMarre      R    CF   23   .245 .307 .317 122 470  50 115  15   2   5  38  35 122  36  16   68
Paul Janish       R    SS   29   .238 .302 .327 110 315  35  75  17   1   3  28  25  49   3   2   69
Kris Negron       R    SS   26   .222 .279 .336 144 527  66 117  18   6  10  45  32 139  17   4   64
Mike Costanzo     L    3B   28   .206 .271 .341 115 408  43  84  19   3  10  52  36 151   3   2   63

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Joey Votto                    AV/84
Jay Bruce                                                                     AV/70
Brandon Phillips                      VG/61
Chris Heisey                                                 AV/110  AV/118  AV/117
Juan Francisco               AV/117          AV/139          AV/115
Scott Rolen                                   VG/56
Devin Mesoraco           AV
Miguel Cairo                 AV/103   AV/90   AV/93   FR/96
Drew Stubbs                                                  VG/112   AV/77  VG/114
Ryan Hanigan             VG
Henry Rodriguez                      FR/149  AV/110  PO/104
Todd Frazier                  AV/87  FR/119   FR/92          AV/119
Neftali Soto                 AV/101          FR/128
Donald Lutz                  AV/133                          FR/115          FR/115
Daniel Dorn                   AV/94                           AV/95           FR/99
Zack Cozart                                           VG/94
Eric Campbell                FR/108  PO/126  FR/125          FR/123          FR/123
Edgar Renteria                                        FR/94
Corky Miller             VG
Chris Valaika                        FR/106  AV/102   FR/93
Denis Phipps                                                 AV/126  FR/141  AV/126
Cody Puckett                         FR/123  AV/118           AV/85  FR/118   FR/89
Daryl Jones                                                  AV/158  FR/147  AV/117
Didi Gregorius                                       VG/146
Brodie Greene                        FR/101  AV/119  FR/136  AV/120          FR/110
Ryan LaMarre                                                         FR/111   AV/91
Paul Janish                          AV/108   AV/98   VG/72
Kris Negron                          VG/104          AV/120          FR/108  AV/112
Mike Costanzo                AV/123          FR/101

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Mat Latos         R      24     3.38    15    9   32   32   191.7  168   72   19   56  189   119
Johnny Cueto      R      26     3.63    10    7   29   29   173.3  167   70   15   56  123   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Homer Bailey      R      26     4.28     9    9   28   27   157.7  161   75   18   49  124    94
Sam LeCure        R      28     4.37     5    5   34   13   107.0  105   52   15   36   88    92
Mike Leake        R      24     4.42     9    9   28   25   159.0  166   78   23   43  113    91
Bronson Arroyo    R      35     4.84     9   11   27   27   169.3  180   91   30   45   96    83
Sean Gallagher    R      26     5.57     4    7   30   13    85.7   94   53   13   48   59    72
Luis Atilano      R      27     5.63     4    6   13   13    64.0   79   40    9   22   29    71
Brandon Hynick    R      27     5.76     5    9   26   20   114.0  137   73   18   46   65    70
Pedro Villarreal  R      24     5.83     6   10   28   24   125.0  151   81   22   42   74    69
Dallas Buck       R      27     5.98     2    4    9    9    40.7   53   27    5   20   18    67
Clayton Tanner    L      24     5.98     6   10   24   23   117.3  140   78   19   57   64    67
Chad Reineke      R      30     6.22     5   10   27   20   114.3  145   79   20   47   61    65
Andrew Brackman   R      26     6.68     4    9   31   18    97.0  115   72   15   80   62    60

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Sean Marshall     L      29     2.74     8    3   76    0    72.3   60   22    5   21   80   147
Bill Bray         L      29     3.46     3    2   64    0    41.7   35   16    4   16   42   116
Nick Masset       R      30     3.60     5    3   74    0    70.0   63   28    6   29   68   111
Francisco Cordero R      37     3.64     5    3   61    0    59.3   55   24    5   24   44   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Aroldis Chapman   L      24     3.87     6    5   57    7    76.7   60   33    8   54   98   104
Jose Arredondo    R      28     4.13     5    4   63    0    65.3   57   30    7   38   68    97
Logan Ondrusek    R      27     4.13     4    4   66    0    65.3   63   30    6   27   44    97
Jeremy Horst      L      26     4.21     3    3   47    0    66.3   67   31    6   24   49    95
Carlos Fisher     R      29     4.28     3    3   49    0    61.0   57   29    7   30   54    94
Josh Judy         R      26     4.40     3    3   53    0    59.3   58   29    7   27   55    91
Donnie Joseph     L      24     4.98     2    3   59    0    59.7   60   33    8   34   59    81
Jordan Smith      R      26     5.30     3    4   57    0    56.0   65   33    8   20   29    76
Kanekoa Texeira   R      26     5.93     2    4   39    2    60.7   74   40    9   29   33    68

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Edgar Renteria       .284  .341  .395  2229  8439  1227  2398   446    31   142   951   735  1210   297    92
Joey Votto           .289  .382  .496  2155  7927  1200  2288   474    36   367  1324  1171  1559   132   133
Scott Rolen          .278  .358  .484  2232  8178  1306  2276   576    50   335  1409   932  1506   120   119
Brandon Phillips     .270  .319  .421  1987  7818  1071  2111   394    52   227   990   498  1078   220    95
Jay Bruce            .253  .333  .457  2048  7342  1050  1855   334    46   359  1122   859  1857    84   109
Drew Stubbs          .244  .318  .387  1460  5483   819  1339   226    36   162   565   553  1631   273    88
Chris Heisey         .254  .313  .431  1163  3270   481   829   150    14   134   456   239   731    56    98

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mat Latos             211  138    0    3.32  460  461     2796 2375 1031  294  826 2860    119
Johnny Cueto          143  116    0    3.80  424  424     2505 2419 1058  258  830 1843    107
Bronson Arroyo        133  135    1    4.44  395  359     2302 2382 1135  338  668 1462     99
Homer Bailey          111  108    0    4.40  344  341     1963 1986  960  242  648 1576     92

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Joey Votto        1B     67%  22%   6%   4%   1%        Todd Helton         Will Clark       Jason Giambi
Jay Bruce         RF     19%  29%  19%  18%  15%    Jesse Barfiefld        Rusty Greer     Jeremy Hermida
Brandon Phillips  2B     27%  18%  19%  20%  16%      Frank Bolling       Johnny Logan        Bob Johnson
Chris Heisey      LF      7%  20%  21%  26%  26%     Brandon Berger       Jay Knoblauh        Jose Malave
Juan Francisco    3B     10%  27%  27%  21%  15%        Jim Presley         Roy Howell      Jeff Hamilton
Scott Rolen       3B      9%  18%  23%  26%  24%      Matt Williams           Art Howe       Jim Morrison
Devin Mesoraco    C      19%  33%  23%  18%   8%  Hector Villanueva    Charles Johnson       Mandy Romero
Miguel Cairo      3B      4%   9%  16%  26%  46%    Tony Graffanino      Jim Davenport       Luis Salazar
Drew Stubbs       CF     10%  15%  28%  27%  20%       Mark Bradley       Chris Latham          Bo Porter
Ryan Hanigan      C       9%  26%  27%  26%  12%       Tom Satriano        Jerry Grote          Joe Azcue
Henry Rodriguez   2B     13%   9%  13%  23%  42%        Robin Yount Bill Knickerbocker      Josh Barfield
Todd Frazier      3B      3%  11%  21%  29%  35%     Sean Rodriguez       Brandon Wood        Wade Rowdon
Neftali Soto      1B      1%   7%  12%  29%  51%    Adell Davenport       Brett Harper         Julian Yan
Donald Lutz       1B      1%   5%   8%  22%  65%        Dale Holman        Glenn Davis        Daryle Ward
Daniel Dorn       1B      0%   4%   7%  25%  64%        Greg Sparks    Tyler Brilinski     Oreste Marrero
Zack Cozart       SS      9%  18%  31%  26%  16%        Josh Wilson     Rafael Ramirez     Trevor Plouffe
Eric Campbell     3B      1%   4%   9%  18%  69%        Tony Zuniga       Brad Seitzer        Craig Walck
Edgar Renteria    SS      3%   6%  14%  26%  51%       Gene Michael     Dennis Hocking       Marty Marion
Corky Miller      C       4%   8%  12%  26%  51%        Rick Cerone          Tony Pena       Rick Ferrell
Chris Valaika     2B      1%   2%   3%  10%  84%      Ray Navarrete       Brennan King     Gregorio Petit
Denis Phipps      CF      0%   1%   5%  17%  77%    Marvin Garrison        Xavier Paul        Mitch Maier
Cody Puckett      2B      2%   4%   7%  16%  71%        Wade Rowdon          Bob Bafia          Jeff Eure
Daryl Jones       LF      0%   1%   2%   4%  93%    Kevin Koslofski         Mike Neill      Vernon Thomas
Didi Gregorius    SS      3%   4%  10%  18%  65%     Gary DiSarcina      Terry Crowley      Luis Quinones
Brodie Greene     2B      3%   2%   3%   8%  83%     Matt Witkowski     Ron Gardenhire      Freddie Bynum
Ryan LaMarre      CF      1%   2%   6%  13%  78%        Turner Ward       Jeff McNeely       Darren Lewis
Paul Janish       SS      1%   1%   7%  21%  71%         Kevin Baez           Stu Cole        Pedro Lopez
Kris Negron       SS      2%   2%   7%  17%  72%    Hector Tiburcio      Nelson Castro      Andres Duncan
Mike Costanzo     3B      1%   1%   1%   2%  95%        Tom Quinlan       Sean Mcnally         Ryan Owens

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Sean Marshall     RP      74%    21%     5%          Don Mossi        Joe Sambito   Willie Hernandez
Mat Latos         SP      65%    30%     5%         Roy Oswalt         Jake Peavy         Andy Benes
Bill Bray         RP      34%    46%    20%    George Sherrill        Alan Embree         Will Ohman
Nick Masset       RP      26%    55%    19%      Ryan Dempster         Todd Jones    Hector Carrasco
Johnny Cueto      SP      53%    42%     5%        Storm Davis       John Farrell        Bobby Jones
Francisco Cordero RP      32%    42%    26%      Moe DrabowskyShigetoshi Hasegawa   Giovanni Carrara
Aroldis Chapman   RP      22%    54%    24%          Ken Brett        John Rocker     Mitch Williams
Jose Arredondo    RP      13%    46%    41%         Jim Stoops      Doug Bochtler    Derrick Turnbow
Logan Ondrusek    RP      13%    45%    41%          Matt Ryan       Scott Munter         Sean Green
Jeremy Horst      RP      11%    50%    40%       Bill Moloney      Gabe Gonzalez       Mike Venafro
Carlos Fisher     RP       6%    38%    56%    David Holdridge       Mike Butcher     Marc Pisciotta
Homer Bailey      SP      17%    58%    25%      Frank Pastore       Aaron Harang      Brian Kingman
Sam LeCure        SP       4%    41%    55%    Andy McGaffigan Francisco Oliveras        Nelson Cruz
Josh Judy         RP       8%    34%    57%      Darrin Chapin      Jorge Vasquez         Todd Bussa
Mike Leake        SP       9%    54%    37%     Justin Germano      Steve Woodard     Edgar Gonzalez
Bronson Arroyo    SP       6%    28%    65%    Bill Gullickson      Mike Caldwell    Jack Billingham
Donnie Joseph     RP       2%    22%    77%    Kevin Lovingier  Taylor Tankersley       Mike Bumatay
Jordan Smith      RP       1%    13%    86%        Brian Allen        Arty Santos         Trey Witte
Sean Gallagher    SP       0%     4%    96%     Darwin Peguero        Mike Gordon     Jose Vaquedano
Luis Atilano      SP       1%    11%    89%     Ryan Hutchison       Danny Muegge Cristhian Martinez
Brandon Hynick    SP       0%     4%    96%        Pat Ahearne        Jim Magrane        Steve Finch
Pedro Villarreal  SP       0%     4%    96%       Dane Johnson        Jason Jones    Cameron Reimers
Kanekoa Texeira   RP       0%     3%    97%       Martin Rivas         Blake Mayo    William Vaughan
Dallas Buck       SP       1%     7%    92%          Sean Lowe       Mark AmbroseJohn Van Benschoten
Clayton Tanner    SP       0%     2%    98%         Joe Beimel       Josh Stewart         Matt White
Chad Reineke      SP       1%     3%    97%        Jason Roach    Vicente Bonilla      Tim McClaskey
Andrew Brackman   SP       0%     0%   100%      Jon Leicester        Keith Davis      Travis Hughes

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Joey Votto              41%      77%      68%       9%       1%      48%      60%       5%
Jay Bruce                5%      11%      30%       1%       4%      43%      10%       2%
Brandon Phillips        19%       5%       8%       6%       3%       6%       3%       8%
Chris Heisey             5%       2%      11%       0%       1%       2%       2%       2%
Juan Francisco           8%       0%      30%       6%       5%      19%       2%       0%
Scott Rolen              9%       3%      13%       0%       1%       0%       3%       0%
Devin Mesoraco           2%       3%       7%       3%       4%       3%       1%       0%
Miguel Cairo            14%       8%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Drew Stubbs              1%       1%       1%       0%       6%       3%       0%      79%
Ryan Hanigan            14%      29%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Henry Rodriguez         17%       1%       4%      13%       2%       5%       2%      46%
Todd Frazier             1%       1%       3%       2%       1%       7%       0%       4%
Neftali Soto             1%       0%      14%       0%       2%      36%       1%       0%
Donald Lutz              5%       0%       5%       0%       3%      10%       1%       0%
Daniel Dorn              0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Zack Cozart              2%       1%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Eric Campbell            1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Edgar Renteria           5%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Corky Miller             3%       6%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Chris Valaika            2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Denis Phipps             1%       0%       0%       1%      14%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Puckett             0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%       4%
Daryl Jones              0%       1%       1%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Didi Gregorius           5%       0%       1%       0%      25%       0%       0%       4%
Brodie Greene            2%       0%       1%       0%       6%       1%       0%      17%
Ryan LaMarre             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      76%
Paul Janish              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kris Negron              0%       0%       1%       0%      11%       1%       0%       4%
Mike Costanzo            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Sean Marshall             72%        94%        95%        18%        93%
Mat Latos                 31%        86%        80%         8%        69%
Bill Bray                 34%        73%        79%         4%        76%
Nick Masset               26%        76%        75%         0%        79%
Johnny Cueto              16%        77%         3%         4%        82%
Francisco Cordero         26%        68%        10%         2%        83%
Aroldis Chapman           17%        65%        98%         0%        76%
Jose Arredondo             9%        52%        87%         0%        62%
Logan Ondrusek             9%        52%         2%         2%        68%
Jeremy Horst               8%        46%         7%         4%        67%
Carlos Fisher              4%        37%        48%         0%        57%
Homer Bailey               2%        37%        11%         5%        56%
Sam LeCure                 2%        35%        23%         4%        31%
Josh Judy                  6%        36%        56%         0%        56%
Mike Leake                 1%        28%         2%        15%        23%
Bronson Arroyo             1%        14%         0%        26%        10%
Donnie Joseph              1%        14%        78%         0%        41%
Jordan Smith               1%        10%         0%         5%        32%
Sean Gallagher             0%         2%         2%         0%        30%
Luis Atilano               0%         3%         0%         5%        29%
Brandon Hynick             0%         1%         0%         0%        16%
Pedro Villarreal           0%         0%         0%         3%         7%
Kanekoa Texeira            0%         2%         0%         0%        35%
Dallas Buck                0%         3%         0%         1%        64%
Clayton Tanner             0%         0%         0%         0%        10%
Chad Reineke               0%         1%         1%         1%         9%
Andrew Brackman            0%         0%         0%         0%        23%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-01-08T18:05:47+00:00