To leagues already running, please simply edit Randy Johnson's splits at the earliest possible convenience if you haven't noticed it already.

]]> 2009-04-15T17:47:01-05:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/rangers_signed_lewis/ Texas Colby Lewis to a 2-year, $5 million contract.

Terrific, terrific signing by the Rangers. I'm not generally a fan of some of the team's moves (though there haven't been any repeats of the infamous Eaton trade), but this shows imagination and creativity and aggression in an area that hasn't been really been looked at by most major league clubs. Sure, teams go after Japanese talent, especially top talent, with far more gusto than they used to, but the value of using NPB as a higher-level minor-league than AAA, a place to watch players that either haven't gotten a chance in the majors or still need time to work out things in an easier-than-MLB-but-better-than-AAA environment, has generally been overlooked at MLB teams. Now, the Japanese might not be crazy about being considered an elite MLB minor league, but I'm looking at this from the viewpoint of MLB teams.

Lewis, of course, was a disappointment in the majors for the Rangers after being a top prospect. He had serious issues with his command, but also serious issues with his shoulder, and any chance of him coming back from a miserable 2003 was dashed by a torn rotator cuff and surgery. The A's gave him a short chance in mostly mopup duty in 2007 and it didn't work out, but he also had his best performance ever in the minors that year.

In Japan, Lewis continued the progress he made with Sacramento. From a pitcher who had occasional problems with control, he put up sterling numbers, with a ridiculous 10/1 K/BB ratio in 2009. Is Lewis a risk? Absolutely. But pitchers are very tricky. There are always the greats that reach the majors fully formed, like Clemens and Lincecum, but there are always a lot of pitchers that shockingly turn it around later in their career and give solid seasons from a long time. When I projected Cliff Lee in the mid-4s a couple of years ago, that projection was widely considered wrong. Too optimistic. At the time of his 30th birthday, Jamie Moyer was 34-54 with an ERA+ of 86 and anybody who thought he'd have 258 career wins 15 years later is a liar.

Again, I'm not saying Lewis will be Lee or Moyer. But he's played extremely well and no matter what a player's past, teams should always be flexible to give chances to a player that plays well. You don't get great bargains on sure things. $2.5 million a year is, in the big pitcher of things, a rather small sum. These are the kinds of signings that teams in a position to be less risk-averse should be making, not signing bad punchless-and-judy leftfielders that can't play centerfield or ancient catchers that last had good seasons when John Kerry was a candidate for president.

Lewis could very easily put up a dozen bad starts and end up in mopup duty for a year and a half. But he could also be worth 8 figures in pure profit for the Rangers.

If you haven't figured it out, good signing. No doubt the error range on the projection are tremendous.

2010 ZiPS Projection - Colby Lewis
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Year       W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2010      11   9  27  27 176.1 179   86  24  51 128  4.39  107 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps:  Matt Morris, Frank Castillo, Kevin Tapani

This is a 1-year, $9 million contract with a $1 million buyout and a player option for $5 million that becomes $10 million if Beltre has 640 plate appearances. He hasn't done that since 2006, but it could happen.

Not the sexiest move in the world with Holliday's contract being big news, but Beltre's glove makes this a very good signing for the team. The team clearly does not want Mike Lowell anywhere near 3B and would have already gotten rid of him if not for the injury. Beltre, overrated at the time of his last contract, has become underrated in general due to a park that makes his hitting look worse than it is and excellent defense. For some reason, while the general public does appreciate (and probably overappreciates) defense, it seems speedy, up-the-middle players are the ones that get the due for defense, even if they're not all that good.

The Sox have made some fairly quiet moves that drastically upgrade the defense - the Ellsbury/Cameron/Drew outfield and the hot corner upgrade should result in some of the starters having "surprising" good years.

On a side note, I apologize for the lack of completeness of signing updates. I was sick as a dog for pretty much the whole corridor from Thanksgiving to New Years, which caused a lot of slowdowns in a winter in which I'm trying to get the projections basically done before the end of January and am putting some material together for some possible mainstream writing (though obviously sabermetric-influenced).

2010 ZiPS Projection - Adrian Beltre (3B)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+  DR   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         478  79  132  35  1  16  91  32  78   6  .278  .327  .456    97   10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A big one and a big risk. The latter isn't because of any ability foibles but simply because the Cardinals absolutely must sign Pujols as well. Now, the team isn't cheap, but with $40 million (at least) tied up in 2 players, the organization is going to have to start developing more players that usual in-house and even more Dave Duncan Specials, because this will make it harder to bring in Lohses and Pennies for $10 million per. On the plus side, there is at least some cost certainty in a lot of places, with Wainwright and Carpenter locked up for the next few years, but the team's going to have to eventually choose one (I'd choose the former, given their ages and injury histories).

No doubt comparisons will be made between the Bay and Holliday signings, but honestly, I feel (and ZiPS agrees) that Holliday's a better player. If you give Bay a break on his defensive stats because of Fenway, he's still likely 10 runs or so below-average and if you knock off 5 of Holliday's combined UZR/RTZ/Dial range numbers of recent years because you think they overrated Holliday, Holliday's still 5-10 runs a year better than Bay in the field. There's also the additional year and the fact that Holliday is a more well-rounded hitter than Bay, with less of an emphasis on old players' skills. Bay's certainly not slow, but he's had quite a dropoff in singles and doubles in recent years (Fenway being an incredible doubles park has obscured the fact that Bay's more reliant on home runs).

There's an 8th year in this contract, but Holliday has to finish in the Top 10 in the MVP voting in 2016 for it to vest at $17 million. If he's still good enough that he's doing that in the 8th year, he'll certainly be worth a 1-year, $17 million contract at the time.

More signings to come, but I need to finish Giants ZiPS first.

ZiPS Projection - Matt Holliday (LF)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+   DEF
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         562 104 173  38   4  26  125  66 112  10 .308 .387 .528  143    AV      
2011         543  99 165  35   3  25  120  64 110   9 .304 .384 .517  139    AV 
2012         539  97 163  35   3  24  119  62 113   9 .302 .381 .512  137    AV
2013         534  95 158  33   3  24  117  61 116   9 .296 .375 .504  133    AV
2014         503  88 146  30   3  22  109  57 112   8 .290 .370 .493  129    AV
2015         468  80 133  27   2  19  100  53 107   6 .284 .364 .472  123    FR 
2016         422  71 118  24   2  16   91  46  99   5 .280 .358 .460  118    FR
2017         381  62 105  21   2  14   82  41  92   3 .276 .354 .451  115    FR 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Larry Hisle, Bernard Gilkey, George Foster]]>
      2010-01-06T18:32:02-05:00
    

    
      
      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/mets_signed_bengie/
      
      NY Mets
      Bengie Molina to a 2-year contract.

Unfortunately for the Mets, there aren't a lot of great options out there for a team wanting a solid catcher for a few years.  Statheads love Josh Thole, but his defense needs work and he has absolutely no power and he is pretty much the only slightly palatable option for the Mets.  Bengie Molina is unlikely to be very good, but when your team plays Omir Santos on purpose, he represents a decent stopgap.  Don't expect too much from Molina - he's still a 35-year-old catcher in lousy shape coming off an 86 OPS+.

No dollar figures released, but it's presumably not a figure large enough that it will prevent the Mets from doing what they absolutely have to - grabbing the last bits of good pitching on the market as if their lives depended on it (because they do).

ZiPS Projection - Bengie Molina (C)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         444  43 116  22   1  16   88  16  52   0 .261 .290 .423   88      
2011         413  39 106  19   1  14   82  14  49   0 .257 .283 .409   82 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Barry Lyons, Bo Diaz, Michelin Man

ODDIBE

Offense
Top Quintile     4%
2nd Quintile     16%
Mid Quintile     27%
4th Quintile     35%
Low Quintile     19%

OPS+                    OBP                3B              Hits
160+             0%     .400+      0%      10+     0%      200+    0%
140+             0%     .375+      0%      5+      0%      150+    1%
130+             1%     .350+      1%
120+             2%     .325+      8%      2B
110+             6%     .300+      33%     45+     0%
100+             16%                       30+     9%
90+              40%
80+              71%
60+              91%

BA                      SLG                HR              SB
.350+            0%     .550+      0%      50+     0%      70+     0%
.325+            1%     .500+      2%      40+     0%      50+     0%
.300+            8%     .450+      21%     30+     1%      30+     0%
.275+            30%    .400+      75%     20+     25%     10+     0%
.250+            68%    .350+      98%     10+     92%
(Based on Projected PA)
]]>
      2009-12-30T00:05:00-05:00
    

    
      
      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/giants_signed_derosa/
      
      San Francisco
      Mark DeRosa to a 2-year, $12 million contract.

DeRosa's extremely useful, but he *is* at an age when players that are extremely useful have a tendency to suddenly become very less so.  

DeRosa's one of the best Plan B players around, being able to fill-in admirably anywhere but SS, C, and CF and be a plus.  He's not really good enough offensively or defensively to be a solid starter anywhere logical for the Giants, assuming they don't make the short-sighted move of giving up on Kung Fu Panda at the hot corner.  And the big problem for the Giants is most of the Plan As aren't very good.  This is a team that lost their cleanup hitter offseason and even worse, that cleanup hitter was Bengie Molina.  

None of that is DeRosa's fault, of course.  He's a suitable stopgap anywhere, but the Giants have most of a lineup of a suitable stopgaps.


ZiPS Projection - Mark DeRosa (3B)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+   DEF
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010         433  63 118  24   2  14   73  44  88   2 .273 .345 .434   104    AV
2011         401  57 108  21   2  13   68  40  83   2 .269 .340 .429   101    FR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Ken Boyer, Phil Garner, Doug DeCinces

ODDIBE

Offense
Top Quintile     10%
2nd Quintile     23%
Mid Quintile     29%
4th Quintile     25%
Low Quintile     13%

OPS+                    OBP                3B              Hits
160+             0%     .400+      3%      10+     0%      200+    0%
140+             3%     .375+      15%     5+      7%      150+    1%
130+             8%     .350+      43%
120+             16%    .325+      78%     2B
110+             33%    .300+      96%     45+     0%
100+             59%                       30+     20%
90+              83%
80+              95%
60+              99%

BA                      SLG                HR              SB
.350+            1%     .550+      2%      50+     0%      70+     0%
.325+            4%     .500+      9%      40+     0%      50+     0%
.300+            18%    .450+      35%     30+     1%      30+     0%
.275+            49%    .400+      81%     20+     15%     10+     0%
.250+            82%    .350+      98%     10+     83%

(Based on Projected PA)
]]>
      2009-12-29T23:49:00-05:00
    

    
      
      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/mets_signed_bay/
      
      NY Mets
      Jason Bay to a 4-year, $66 million contract.

This contract comes with an option for a 5th season.

This is a pretty good signing for the Mets, but with a few caveats.  The team and the fans have to remember that while they're getting a solid player in Bay, he's not a superstar.  The Mets needed a bat like Bay's, but he's not one of the best hitters in the league and his defense leaves much to be desired.  Fenway and LF always seems to be an ongoing issue for defensive statistics, but Bay had a UZR of -12 in his last full year in Pittsburgh, so it's not a stretch to say he's a significantly below-average defensive player.

The Mets really have to get what pitching they can at this point.  The problems with the team are such that even adding a needed bat in left doesn't make the job done.  To use a poker term, the Mets are "pot committed" after this signing.  The team was at a crossroads, with too much talent to rebuild and perhaps not good enough to win the division, so if the team is going for it, they have to absolutely go for it.  They have the weakest starting rotation of any NL team with a realistic expectation of competing in 2010 and signing Bengie Molina and a whole brigade de cuisine of backup catchers isn't going to fix it.

ZiPS Projection - Jason Bay
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year     AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+ 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010    537   94  145  22   3  36   99   81  154  10  .270  .369  .523   136  
2011    471   82  121  22   3  28   90   73  134   6  .257  .362  .495   126
2012    466   79  117  21   2  28   87   71  138   5  .251  .355  .485   122
2013    460   75  111  20   2  25   82   69  142   5  .241  .344  .457   112  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
]]>
      2009-12-29T23:37:00-05:00
    

    
      
      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/nationals_signed_marquis/
      
      Washington
      Jason Marquis to a 2-year, $15 million contract.

I'm pretty gobsmacked.  If you told me a month ago, after Marquis won 16 games, was named an All-Star, and had numerous puff pieces about his legendary streak of playoff appearances, that Marquis would only sign for 2/15, I would have thought you were nuts.  But that's what happened.

Marquis is the best kind of the inning-eater species.  With the exception of one season, Marquis is always pretty healthy and always a bit above-average and this is something the Nationals are desperate for.  Suddenly, the 2010 rotation has one less gaping hole and assuming some luck with Strasburg and a successful recovery from Zimmermann, the Nats suddenly have a pretty decent 2011 rotation.

The Nats still have a lot of work to do, but they might stop being in contention for one of the top draft picks in the near future.

ZiPS Projection - Jason Marquis
-----------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2010       11  12  30  30 184.2 195   89  16  65  87  4.34   101    
2011       11  12  29  29 178.1 190   88  15  66  89  4.44    97      
-----------------------------------------------------------------
]]>
      2009-12-23T23:16:00-05:00