Jays leftfielders have combined for 224/303/299, DHs for 197/295/314. Bonds could be a serial killer and still not be as unpleasant a situation for the Jays, whose GM's strategy for building the offense was to hide under a pile of jackets and just hope somehow everything would work out. It hasn't, though, and Wilkerson, who hasn't hit at all since he messed up his shoulder and Mench, who just isn't very good, aren't going to turn around the offense.

ZiPS Projection - Brad Wilkerson
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date  56   1   13   4  0   0   5  10  15   1  .232  .348  .304   
Rest-of-Yr?  279  41   65  18  1  11  38  38  90   3  .233  .329  .423
Proj. 2008   335  42   78  22  1  11  43  48 105   4  .233  .332  .403  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?        286  42   63  16  1  13  45  34 100   2  .220  .305  .420 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Jim Dwyer, Rob Mackowiak

ZiPS Projection - Kevin Mench
------------------------------------------------------------------------
               AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date* 110  16   28   5  1   3  14  10  12   0  .255  .314  .400  
Rest-of-Yr?   321  39   83  17  2  11  41  23  54   1  .259  .314  .427 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?         331  41   86  17  1  11  47  22  56   0  .260  .310  .417
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Marty Cordova, Shane Spencer
* - Contains Minor League Translation

Edmonds was an important part of the Padres offense. An important part of why the Padres been almost as bad offensively as the Giants, that is. Edmonds has had a great career (and would be a Hall of Famer if the bar hadn't been raised ridiculously thanks to the Vet Committee now being a dead-end), but he's pretty toasteriffic now. He might latch onto a team for a few months (Reds if Patterson gets dumped?), but he's pretty close to playing out the string. Maybe the Giants will sign Edmonds - he can't hit and doesn't play short and is lefthanded, but still might be a better overall shortstop than Bocock or Burriss.

I'm glad to see a Jody Gerut get some more playing time, which he'll almost have to with Edmonds being done and messing up the Padres' plans.

ZiPS Projection - Jim Edmonds
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date  90   6   16   2  0   1   6  10  24   2  .178  .265  .233   
Rest-of-Yr?  285  36   67  13  1  11  37  40  75   3  .235  .331  .404
Proj. 2008   375  42   83  15  1  12  43  50  99   5  .221  .316  .363
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?        295  36   69  13  0  11  40  39  80   2  .234  .323  .390
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Ken Griffey Sr, Steve Finley
* - Includes minor league translation 

The free agent market continues to mature - whereas teams have really gotten the hang of non-tendering arbitration-eligible players that aren't even worth the club's number, they're now generally getting more aggressive at locking up the players they want to keep while they still have the most leverage. I think it's going to be awhile until we start seeing successfully turning their teams around in the free agent market, at least until the pendulum swings the other way and teams start overvaluing their young players and undervaluing free agents.

Young's 2007 was a mild disappointment, but he was playing below his talent level that both stats and scouts agreed he had. With solid defense, Young's a major star if he hits .280 and even hitting .230, he should bring enough power and defense to be a net positive for $5 million a year. Thumbs up. These types of deals, even when they go bad, are almost never crippling.

ZiPS Projection - Chris Young
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date  23   7    5   2  0   3   4   7   9   2  .217  .400  .696   
Rest-of-Yr?  548  81  134  32  3  30  96  52 123  23  .245  .317  .478  
Proj. 2008   571  88  139  34  3  33 100  59 132  25  .243  .321  .487 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?        566  86  135  31  2  35 105  53 149  26  .239  .308  .486
2010?        555  87  134  34  2  35 104  58 141  24  .241  .317  .499  
2011?        555  88  134  32  2  36 105  59 149  25  .241  .318  .501 
2012?        559  89  137  33  2  37 108  60 148  24  .245  .322  .510 
2013?        547  86  134  32  1  36 105  57 145  22  .245  .320  .505  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Preston Wilson

Rios's deal is worth $64 million over 6 years (with a club option for $13.5 million for 2015). He's not a superstar, but I'd rather have him through 2014 than most of the outfielders that were in free agency this year, and that's a helluva bargain. There's little chance that Rios becomes some 45-homers-a-year God, but he doesn't need to be with 4 years of free agency being bought. I haven't seen a detailed accounting of the years and salaries, but if we conservatively assume that he'd make $15 million in his last 2 years of arbitration, the Jays are getting 4 free agent years from Rios for about $12 million a year. A lot can happen in 2 years, of course, which is why the Jays can get him for only $12 million. No complaints here. Of course, I didn't complain about Vernon Wells's new contract and it's not looking as good as it did a year ago (though Wells is making a lot more than Rios in his new deal).

Hill scores $4 million a year through 2011 and the Jays hold 3 option years, so he must love Toronto (I went to the city for SABR convention a few years ago and I'd have to agree). Like Rios, he won't be a superstar, but he's an underrated offensive contributor with an awesome glove. He deserves a Gold Glove or two, but a lot players seem to not get the award when they deserve it and start getting it when they stop deserving it, so maybe he'll have a small run around 2012 or so.

ZiPS Projection - Aaron Hill
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date  16   1    5   1  0   0   2   0   2   0  .313  .313  .375  
Rest-of-Yr?  561  71  152  35  2   9  64  40  79   2  .271  .325  .389  
Proj. 2008   577  72  157  36  2   9  66  40  81   2  .272  .325  .388     
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?        583  77  166  35  3  10  77  47  86   2  .285  .341  .407                
2010?        583  76  160  34  2  11  72  44  94   1  .274  .328  .396
2011?        564  73  157  33  2   9  66  42  88   1  .278  .331  .392
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Dave Cash, Steve Sax

ZiPS Projection - Alex Rios
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date  12   2    4   0  0   0   3   4   2   3  .333  .500  .333
Rest-of-Yr?  547  91  160  33  5  21  87  48  95   9  .293  .360  .486
Proj. 2008   559  93  164  33  5  21  90  52  97  12  .293  .364  .483
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009?        547  90  160  34  4  19  88  48 100  12  .293  .355  .473         
2010?        560  95  167  36  4  20  92  49  99  12  .298  .359  .484 
2011?        540  89  158  34  3  18  84  47  96   9  .293  .354  .467
2012?        518  86  149  32  3  17  81  46  99   7  .288  .351  .459
2013?        494  82  142  32  3  17  77  44  96   6  .287  .352  .468
2014?        483  79  138  31  2  15  74  42  97   4  .286  .349  .451
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Carl Furillo, Derek Bell (sorry)

Just a little tool I give out every year to make estimated recalculations of projections for the rest of the season.  As usual with my spreadsheets, green cells are ones you put stuff into.  Someone more clever than I might be able to figure out how to data-mine a few of those cells automatically.  Remember, it’s really early in a season, so I probably wouldn’t use this too much, especially for starting pitchers, for another couple of weeks.

Josh Fogg peaked about a week too early. After a good second-half and one of the best team comebacks in history down the stretch, Fogg's 2 playoff wins oddly enough had the talking heads on the World Series coverage talking about Fogg with hushed awe, as if they couldn't believe that the man who held one of baseball's worst offensive teams to 1 run in 6 innings was actually on the mound in front of them. If he had held the Red Sox, it would've been worth quite a few million dollars. Alas, the Red Sox murderized him and he went back to Josh Fogg, the regular ol' mediocre version.

But hey, he's only getting about 20% of what Livan Hernandez will get to probably be a worse pitcher.

Wilson failed his physical. Just ask Wilson or Morgan Ensberg or Brad Wilkerson - shoulder injuries don't just ruin the careers of pitchers.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Josh Fogg
-----------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Projection  7  10  28  26  153  176   89  22  57  93  5.24    88
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)  9   8  29  27  166  172   77  18  51 106  4.17   111 
Pes. (15%)  4  10  23  22  120  156   87  23  51  66  6.52    71
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Top Comps:  Paul Wilson, Jason Johnson

Injuries have brought Nixon to the brink of toastdom, but if he's healthy, Chase is a great place to try to revive your career. If I'm Trot Nixon and already have made $30 million, I'd rather play for the Diamondbacks for nearly free (though in this case, he gets decent money if he makes the team) rather than a token $5 million from a tougher environment and give my career every chance to turn around. Nixon's hardly guaranteed a shot - Tracy not being ready would be a huge boost here. Another 2007, however, and we won't have him to kick around anymore.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Trot Nixon
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+  DR   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   297  39   82  19  0   6  42  41  40   0  .276  .367  .401    96   -2 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   363  55  104  24  0   8  48  62  45   1  .287  .394  .419   107    1
Pes. (15%)   263  22   63  12  0   3  24  35  45   0  .240  .331  .319    67   -6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Russ Snyder, Gene Woodling

I'm thinking of two second basemen. One of those second basemen is Brandon Phillips. The other is a mystery player. Phillips is 27 for the 2008 sason, the mystery player is 28. Phillips will cost the Reds $27 million for the next 4 years while the mystery player might not make a single year of Phillips's salary over the new contract. Phillips and the mystery player are both roughly average defensively at 2nd. Phillips and the mystery player, when combining translations and major league numbers, you get the following performance by OPS+ for their careers:

Age      BP       M.P.
2000     80       COLLEGE
2001     98       COLLLEGE
2002     44       65
2003     86       78
2004     88       89
2005     64      101
2006     88       85
2007    105      117

Now, if you've been paying attention at all, it isn't hard to figure out that Mystery Player is Jeff Keppinger, also on the Reds. Brandon Phillips is a good player, with enough power and speed to balance his hacking nature, but the Reds have two good second basemen, which would have made the one with the pretty homer total a tremendous trading chit to fill a hole. Outside of the signing of Cordero, it has to be a pretty disappointing offseason for the Reds - they failed to sell high on Phillips as they should have and despite the amazing quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, they made absolutely no move to either design the roster to force Dusty to play them or to trade them for someone who Dusty will play. The contract itself isn't too unreasonable, however, so the loss is mainly opportunity cost.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Brandon Phillips
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+  DR   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   568  87  154  26  2  21  79  39  94  22  .271  .325  .435    94    1
2009?        572  86  154  26  3  22  86  37  93  22  .269  .323  .441    95    1
2010?        578  89  155  26  2  22  87  38  93  19  .268  .323  .434    93    0
2011?        556  84  146  24  2  20  79  37  87  15  .263  .318  .421    87   -1 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)   587 105  176  33  4  27 103  46  87  27  .300  .360  .508   119    4    
Pes. (15%)   525  57  128  21  1  15  65  29  99  15  .240  .286  .370    66   -4  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Offensive Comps: Tony Cuccinello, Granny Hamner

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