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Primate Studies— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Monday, January 10, 2005
2005 Projections: Devil Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays
All the usual caveats, yada yada yada.
Name Team P Age AVG OBP SPC AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HBP BB K SB CS ID
Toby Hall c 29 .260 .306 .373 434 113 22 0 9 42 54 5 25 40 0 2 1726
Pete LaForest* c 27 .231 .330 .425 334 77 21 1 14 44 47 3 48 88 2 3 1727
Jorge Cantu 2b 23 .276 .310 .469 486 134 39 2 17 68 73 6 20 95 2 2 1728
Julio Lugo ss 29 .275 .342 .395 531 146 31 3 9 72 62 4 52 101 16 5 1729
Eduardo Perez 1b 35 .250 .333 .448 192 48 11 0 9 30 31 3 22 42 2 1 1730
B.J. Upton ss 20 .282 .354 .416 507 143 21 4 13 99 60 5 54 119 24 13 1731
Rocco Baldelli cf 23 .292 .335 .441 585 171 27 6 16 90 78 8 32 110 25 6 1732
Carl Crawford* lf 23 .298 .331 .429 645 192 21 17 10 102 60 1 34 93 66 12 1733
Jose Cruz Jr. # rf 31 .240 .344 .414 538 129 26 4 20 74 71 1 87 117 7 7 1734
Matt Diaz lf 27 .298 .343 .481 497 148 40 3 15 70 72 6 30 91 13 9 1735
Joey Gathright* cf 24 .296 .353 .330 415 123 10 2 0 66 26 6 32 88 46 26 1736
Jonny Gomes rf 24 .231 .314 .440 441 102 25 2 21 70 65 5 50 157 11 5 1737
Aubrey Huff* rf 28 .309 .372 .518 628 194 37 2 30 91 108 6 60 77 4 2 1738
Fernando Cortez* 2b 23 .264 .318 .341 416 110 17 3 3 55 35 4 30 78 18 6 1739
Tim Laker c 35 .212 .271 .314 156 33 7 0 3 13 16 2 11 39 1 1 1740
Luis Ordaz 2b 28 .234 .270 .330 342 80 21 3 2 33 27 3 15 48 4 3 1741
Delmon Young rf 19 .258 .306 .392 472 122 14 2 15 76 63 5 29 127 14 6 1742
Rey Sanchez ss 37 .239 .277 .298 309 74 11 2 1 26 24 2 15 30 1 1 1743
Brook Fordyce c 35 .238 .282 .332 244 58 9 1 4 18 22 2 14 37 1 2 1744
Damian Rolls 3b 27 .242 .298 .350 277 67 15 0 5 31 31 5 18 61 7 3 1745
Fred McGriff* 1b 41 .223 .297 .351 328 73 13 1 9 31 46 2 34 72 0 1 1746
Randall Simon* 1b 30 .270 .307 .414 374 101 15 0 13 39 57 4 17 30 0 0 1747
Charles Gipson cf 32 .266 .332 .336 241 64 10 2 1 36 19 2 23 50 10 5 1748
Jason Maxwell 2b 33 .240 .290 .350 337 81 14 1 7 38 37 3 22 57 1 2 1749
Jared Sandberg 3b 27 .215 .286 .410 441 95 27 1 19 58 62 4 41 155 2 1 1750
Rod Barajas c 29 .249 .287 .434 309 77 22 1 11 38 44 3 14 54 0 1 1788
Gerald Laird c 25 .264 .339 .396 356 94 16 2 9 55 41 4 38 75 4 4 1789
Hank Blalock* 3b 24 .288 .360 .524 628 181 34 3 36 108 110 4 69 132 2 3 1790
Jason Botts# 1b 24 .263 .343 .422 476 125 21 2 17 81 65 5 55 125 9 4 1791
Jason Bourgeois# 2b 23 .244 .295 .317 504 123 18 5 3 78 40 5 33 87 25 13 1792
Adrian Gonzalez* 1b 23 .289 .339 .421 485 140 25 3 11 66 65 5 34 85 2 1 1793
Alfonso Soriano 2b 27 .304 .346 .530 662 201 40 4 34 106 107 12 34 131 26 9 1794
Mark Teixeira# 1b 25 .281 .365 .538 533 150 29 3 34 90 99 11 62 112 3 2 1795
Mike Young ss 28 .308 .348 .455 682 210 33 8 17 106 84 1 44 98 11 4 1796
David Dellucci* rf 31 .237 .336 .412 291 69 13 1 12 46 42 5 40 75 7 4 1797
Gary Matthews Jr.# rf 30 .277 .349 .424 375 104 27 2 8 60 44 1 42 77 9 5 1798
Kevin Mench lf 27 .276 .339 .528 398 110 27 2 23 60 67 6 33 62 0 0 1799
Ramon Nivar cf 25 .279 .311 .368 495 138 19 2 7 74 49 5 20 47 19 13 1800
Laynce Nix* cf 24 .260 .310 .448 466 121 24 2 20 72 67 3 33 125 5 2 1801
Manny Alexander ss 34 .251 .300 .343 370 93 16 3 4 49 34 4 23 58 9 8 1802
Chad Allen lf 30 .297 .339 .435 384 114 28 2 7 58 50 4 22 71 9 10 1803
Jace Brewer ss 26 .220 .275 .344 419 92 15 2 11 61 46 5 28 70 3 1 1804
Jason Conti* cf 30 .279 .326 .394 459 128 23 3 8 61 50 4 30 114 5 6 1805
Jason Hart 1b 27 .250 .331 .441 535 134 30 0 24 74 78 5 62 119 1 1 1806
Ken Huckaby c 34 .247 .284 .322 255 63 11 1 2 24 22 2 12 40 0 1 1807
Jason Jones# lf 28 .271 .361 .421 420 114 28 1 11 60 54 4 57 93 4 3 1808
Ian Kinsler ss 23 .256 .313 .400 418 107 28 1 10 77 51 5 31 80 18 10 1809
Marshall McDougall 3b 26 .270 .352 .430 463 125 24 1 16 69 66 4 57 92 6 3 1810
Will Smith* lf 23 .251 .293 .385 291 73 14 2 7 42 34 3 15 52 6 3 1811
Pete Zoccolillo* lf 28 .282 .361 .468 472 133 35 1 17 73 73 5 56 93 3 4 1812
Brad Fullmer* dh 30 .271 .347 .477 306 83 23 2 12 48 43 7 30 35 4 3 1813
Brian Jordan lf 38 .255 .306 .395 286 73 17 1 7 35 38 3 19 53 1 2 1814
Name Team P Age AVG OBP SPC AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HBP BB K SB CS ID
Herb Perry 1b 35 .251 .314 .431 283 71 13 1 12 33 41 4 23 43 1 1 1815
Danny Ardoin c 30 .231 .294 .364 247 57 13 1 6 31 28 2 20 68 0 2 1816
Guillermo Quiroz c 23 .242 .315 .436 335 81 21 1 14 49 50 4 33 77 1 0 1846
Gregg Zaun# c 34 .254 .348 .373 279 71 18 0 5 34 30 4 37 49 0 2 1847
Russ Adams* ss 24 .268 .332 .375 552 148 29 3 8 77 54 6 49 70 8 4 1848
Eric Crozier* 1b 26 .266 .352 .461 384 102 22 1 17 59 57 4 49 104 6 4 1849
John Hattig# 3b 25 .230 .309 .384 409 94 22 1 13 49 39 4 44 103 5 4 1850
Eric Hinske* 3b 27 .253 .338 .420 557 141 33 3 18 77 71 3 71 112 12 5 1851
Orlando Hudson# 2b 27 .274 .344 .425 530 145 32 6 12 71 59 5 54 90 6 4 1852
Frank Menechino 2b 34 .241 .340 .366 303 73 13 2 7 43 33 4 43 62 1 3 1853
Frankie Catalanotto* lf 31 .292 .352 .441 363 106 27 3 7 53 42 6 29 45 2 2 1854
John-Ford Griffin* lf 25 .239 .315 .402 423 101 22 1 15 57 58 5 44 111 1 1 1855
Gabe Gross* rf 25 .268 .364 .402 497 133 30 2 11 72 61 5 73 110 6 4 1856
Reed Johnson rf 28 .278 .332 .390 485 135 23 2 9 69 54 14 27 84 5 3 1857
Alexis Rios rf 24 .295 .343 .411 593 175 32 8 7 79 59 5 41 108 14 4 1858
Vernon Wells cf 26 .296 .348 .511 632 187 40 3 30 101 100 4 49 85 7 2 1859
Marvin Benard* cf 35 .210 .252 .328 119 25 6 1 2 13 12 1 6 20 2 0 1860
Howie Clark* 3b 31 .277 .351 .387 382 106 22 1 6 52 40 4 41 32 1 2 1861
Chad Hermansen cf 27 .248 .318 .432 234 58 14 1 9 33 29 2 23 68 3 2 1862
Aaron Hill ss 23 .257 .330 .365 417 107 19 1 8 68 49 5 42 59 4 2 1863
Greg Myers* c 39 .261 .330 .403 253 66 12 0 8 32 35 0 27 50 0 3 1864
Dominic Rich* 2b 25 .261 .325 .352 483 126 22 2 6 70 48 5 43 70 3 4 1865
Carlos Delgado* 1b 33 .275 .400 .542 506 139 31 1 34 88 104 15 94 124 0 0 1866
Chris Gomez 3b 34 .260 .310 .351 342 89 15 2 4 34 33 3 23 40 2 2 1867
Chris Woodward ss 29 .261 .320 .398 299 78 17 3 6 39 34 2 25 63 1 2 1868
Dave Berg lf 34 .250 .299 .349 232 58 12 1 3 23 24 3 14 39 0 2 1869
Simon Pond* lf 28 .283 .347 .432 410 116 32 1 9 56 53 5 37 84 1 2 1870
Bobby Estalella c 30 .207 .304 .414 140 29 8 0 7 18 22 1 19 46 1 0 1871
Shawn Fagan 1b 27 .252 .354 .358 408 103 17 1 8 64 45 4 62 90 3 2 1872
Jorge Sequea# 2b 24 .258 .329 .357 361 93 17 2 5 59 34 4 36 68 8 7 1873
Glenn Williams# 3b 27 .245 .299 .445 375 92 20 2 17 55 55 4 26 78 3 1 1874
Name Team P Age ERA W L S G GS CG SHO INN H R ER BB K HR GDP ID
Danys Baez cl 27 4.11 5 4 0 67 0 0 0 70.0 68 35 32 27 59 7 6 1695
Rob Bell sp 28 4.91 8 10 0 31 28 0 0 165.0 183 99 90 56 100 24 15 1696
Dewon Brazelton sp 25 4.74 8 11 0 28 28 0 0 150.0 157 86 79 73 93 13 14 1697
Lance Carter cl 30 4.97 4 5 0 59 0 0 0 76.0 87 46 42 21 40 12 7 1698
Jesus Colome mr 27 4.82 4 6 0 52 0 0 0 71.0 68 41 38 42 62 7 7 1699
Jose Diaz mr 25 6.26 3 8 0 35 9 0 0 82.0 71 62 57 89 92 8 8 1700
Travis Harper mr 29 4.29 5 6 0 51 2 0 0 84.0 87 44 40 27 61 10 7 1701
Mark Hendrickson* sp 31 4.55 9 11 0 32 28 0 0 168.0 169 93 85 43 84 21 15 1702
Carlos Hines mr 24 4.63 2 3 0 48 1 0 0 72.0 74 40 37 33 49 7 7 1703
Scott Kazmir* sp 21 4.76 6 7 0 26 26 0 0 123.0 111 72 65 76 125 13 11 1704
Seth McClung sp 24 6.10 2 3 0 13 4 0 0 31.0 34 23 21 20 22 5 3 1705
Trever Miller* mr 32 4.38 3 3 0 70 0 0 0 72.0 72 38 35 29 57 8 6 1706
Franklin Nunez mr 28 3.71 4 5 0 52 0 0 0 68.0 50 30 28 47 95 6 6 1707
Bobby Seay* mr 27 4.32 1 2 0 40 1 0 0 50.0 49 26 24 23 37 4 5 1708
Chris Seddon* sp 21 6.02 7 15 0 27 27 0 0 145.0 160 106 97 79 110 29 14 1709
Jorge Sosa sp 28 5.28 5 8 0 35 14 0 0 109.0 116 70 64 56 75 15 10 1710
Brian Stokes sp 25 5.41 5 8 0 23 23 0 0 128.0 137 84 77 63 97 21 12 1711
Jon Switzer* sp 25 4.86 5 7 0 25 22 0 0 124.0 130 73 67 45 97 20 11 1712
Doug Waechter sp 24 5.79 5 11 0 26 25 0 0 129.0 150 91 83 52 81 27 12 1713
John Webb sp 26 6.00 3 7 0 24 18 0 0 105.0 117 77 70 65 63 16 10 1714
Gerardo Garcia sp 25 5.16 3 6 0 20 16 0 0 82.0 89 51 47 39 53 11 8 1715
John Halama* mr 33 4.86 5 6 0 34 13 0 0 111.0 129 66 60 31 54 15 10 1717
Jeremi Gonzalez sp 30 4.86 6 8 0 34 21 0 0 137.0 144 81 74 57 96 18 12 1718
Jason Standridge sp 26 4.95 6 8 0 26 24 0 0 140.0 151 84 77 62 87 17 13 1719
Dicky Gonzalez sp 26 4.32 5 5 0 22 21 0 0 123.0 133 64 59 32 74 15 11 1720
Matt Carnes mr 29 4.91 5 6 0 34 16 0 0 121.0 133 72 66 44 69 16 11 1721
Tim Corcoran mr 27 5.88 3 6 0 42 3 0 0 72.0 75 51 47 51 52 9 7 1722
Jim Magrane sp 26 5.76 5 11 0 28 25 0 0 150.0 176 105 96 71 73 24 14 1723
Todd Ritchie sp 33 5.54 5 10 0 22 20 0 0 112.0 133 75 69 40 55 20 10 1724
Jose Veras mr 24 5.63 4 7 0 31 18 0 0 112.0 119 77 70 64 86 18 11 1725
Name Team P Age ERA W L S G GS CG SHO INN H R ER BB K HR GDP ID
Carlos Almanzar mr 31 4.19 4 3 0 54 0 0 0 58.0 63 29 27 13 41 6 5 1751
Joaquin Benoit sp 27 5.06 7 8 0 31 23 0 0 144.0 153 89 81 65 125 20 13 1752
Doug Brocail mr 38 3.77 4 3 0 55 0 0 0 74.0 76 34 31 23 56 4 7 1753
Francisco Cordero cl 30 3.33 5 3 0 64 0 0 0 73.0 64 29 27 31 77 2 6 1754
R.A. Dickey mr 30 4.72 9 8 0 35 18 0 0 141.0 161 81 74 42 85 16 13 1755
Juan Dominguez sp 25 4.65 5 4 0 17 15 0 0 89.0 97 50 46 34 64 9 8 1756
Ryan Drese sp 29 4.90 11 11 0 33 31 0 0 191.0 225 115 104 63 96 19 18 1757
Frankie Francisco mr 25 3.84 6 4 0 60 0 0 0 68.0 54 31 29 39 90 5 6 1758
Travis Hughes sp 27 5.95 5 8 0 39 16 0 0 124.0 137 90 82 81 92 16 12 1759
Kameron Loe sp 23 4.56 9 8 0 30 23 0 0 154.0 168 85 78 50 115 17 14 1760
Ron Mahay* mr 34 4.75 3 3 0 58 0 0 0 72.0 75 41 38 30 62 9 7 1761
Nick Masset sp 23 6.44 4 9 0 24 16 0 0 102.0 131 80 73 47 45 18 10 1762
Agustin Montero mr 27 7.15 2 6 0 54 0 0 0 68.0 80 59 54 55 48 12 7 1763
Edwin Moreno sp 24 5.28 4 6 0 24 14 0 0 92.0 110 59 54 31 50 13 8 1764
Chan Ho Park sp 32 5.73 5 8 0 19 19 0 0 113.0 130 79 72 53 82 19 11 1765
Erasmo Ramirez* mr 29 4.00 6 4 0 55 0 0 0 72.0 81 35 32 13 40 6 6 1766
Nick Regilio sp 26 6.28 5 10 0 22 21 0 0 109.0 126 83 76 73 68 14 11 1767
Ricardo Rodriguez sp 27 5.42 6 8 0 18 18 0 0 103.0 123 68 62 38 55 14 10 1768
Kenny Rogers* sp 40 4.86 12 12 0 34 33 0 0 211.0 248 125 114 65 112 23 19 1769
Brian Shouse* mr 36 3.78 1 0 0 54 0 0 0 50.0 52 23 21 16 34 2 4 1770
Chris Young sp 26 5.63 7 10 0 27 27 0 0 155.0 181 106 97 57 117 30 14 1771
Mike Bacsik* sp 27 6.54 4 9 0 33 19 0 0 128.0 167 102 93 45 65 30 12 1772
Shane Bazzell mr 26 5.22 6 8 0 37 11 0 0 100.0 111 63 58 46 72 12 9 1773
Mickey Callaway sp 30 4.46 6 5 0 26 16 0 0 101.0 111 55 50 31 69 10 9 1774
Rosman Garcia mr 26 5.54 4 6 0 53 1 0 0 78.0 90 52 48 43 43 7 7 1775
Rick Helling sp 34 5.75 7 10 0 28 24 0 0 144.0 177 101 92 44 91 29 13 1776
Kris Keller mr 27 6.96 2 4 0 44 0 0 0 53.0 67 45 41 32 26 10 5 1777
Ryan Snare* sp 26 6.13 6 10 0 27 25 0 0 141.0 173 105 96 63 82 26 13 1778
Michael Tejera* mr 28 5.74 5 7 0 40 17 0 0 116.0 136 81 74 49 81 20 11 1779
Justin Thompson* mr 32 5.29 2 2 0 23 0 0 0 34.0 40 22 20 13 19 4 3 1780
Cory Vance* sp 26 5.85 5 8 0 23 22 0 0 143.0 172 102 93 66 83 22 14 1781
John Wasdin sp 32 5.10 7 8 0 32 23 0 0 157.0 183 97 89 42 109 27 14 1782
Jay Powell mr 33 5.40 1 2 0 44 0 0 0 50.0 56 33 30 26 32 5 5 1783
Jeff Nelson mr 38 4.40 3 2 0 51 0 0 0 45.0 41 24 22 25 50 4 4 1784
Scott Erickson sp 37 5.82 6 9 0 23 22 0 0 130.0 160 92 84 59 58 17 12 1785
Nick Bierbrodt* sp 27 7.30 2 6 0 23 10 0 0 69.0 79 61 56 57 53 13 7 1786
Brad Clontz mr 34 5.95 3 4 0 58 0 0 0 56.0 63 40 37 26 48 12 5 1787
Jason Arnold sp 26 5.47 4 9 0 24 23 0 0 130.0 146 86 79 58 93 20 12 1817
Miguel Batista sp 34 4.85 7 13 0 37 30 0 0 193.0 215 115 104 81 111 17 18 1818
David Bush sp 25 3.98 10 11 0 31 31 0 0 181.0 190 88 80 41 141 20 16 1819
Gustavo Chacin* sp 24 5.77 5 12 0 33 22 0 0 128.0 146 90 82 64 86 20 12 1820
Vinnie Chulk sp 26 5.50 4 9 0 39 16 0 0 121.0 136 81 74 57 87 18 11 1821
Jason Frasor cl 27 4.57 3 4 0 58 0 0 0 63.0 61 35 32 37 55 4 6 1822
Ryan Glynn sp 30 5.23 4 9 0 24 19 0 0 117.0 131 74 68 51 76 15 11 1823
Roy Halladay sp 28 3.58 13 11 0 32 32 0 0 221.0 229 96 88 43 162 17 19 1824
Brandon League sp 22 4.72 4 7 0 35 17 0 0 120.0 127 69 63 56 80 9 11 1825
Kerry Ligtenberg mr 34 4.72 3 4 0 59 0 0 0 61.0 64 35 32 25 48 7 6 1826
Name Team P Age ERA W L S G GS CG SHO INN H R ER BB K HR GDP ID
Ted Lilly* sp 29 4.79 8 12 0 30 29 0 0 173.0 181 101 92 70 148 23 16 1827
Dustin McGowan sp 23 4.35 7 7 0 23 23 0 0 124.0 127 66 60 51 95 10 11 1828
Justin Miller sp 27 5.63 4 10 0 28 22 0 0 123.0 138 84 77 66 81 16 12 1829
Adam Peterson mr 26 5.40 3 7 0 46 0 0 0 55.0 57 36 33 31 50 8 5 1830
Francisco Rosario sp 24 5.47 3 7 0 22 22 0 0 97.0 103 64 59 46 87 17 9 1831
Justin Speier mr 31 4.63 3 4 0 66 0 0 0 68.0 73 38 35 23 54 9 6 1832
Josh Towers sp 28 5.00 6 12 0 29 25 0 0 162.0 198 99 90 29 83 28 15 1833
Chris Baker sp 27 5.63 5 10 0 26 24 0 0 128.0 151 88 80 44 87 25 12 1834
Sean Douglass sp 26 5.13 4 9 0 31 23 0 0 135.0 140 84 77 74 109 15 13 1835
Mark Lukasiewicz* mr 32 5.33 2 4 0 41 2 0 0 54.0 59 35 32 20 46 10 5 1836
David Maurer* mr 30 5.37 1 1 0 43 4 0 0 67.0 70 44 40 33 62 11 6 1837
Mike Smith sp 27 5.88 3 9 0 32 20 0 0 130.0 151 93 85 68 76 19 12 1838
Pat Hentgen sp 36 6.00 3 9 0 23 19 0 0 117.0 142 85 78 51 67 21 11 1839
Bob File mr 28 4.78 2 2 0 43 0 0 0 64.0 77 37 34 18 23 6 6 1840
Kevin Frederick mr 28 5.88 2 6 0 44 1 0 0 52.0 59 37 34 25 41 10 5 1841
Mike Nakamura mr 28 4.14 4 4 0 51 1 0 0 87.0 84 44 40 30 88 11 8 1842
Jason Kershner* mr 27 4.60 4 6 0 55 5 0 0 88.0 95 49 45 30 65 11 8 1843
Aquilino Lopez mr 30 4.56 3 4 0 51 4 0 0 81.0 84 45 41 29 68 10 7 1844
Valerio de los Santos* mr 32 5.48 2 3 0 46 0 0 0 46.0 50 30 28 24 32 6 4 1845
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 10, 2005 at 12:02 PM | 9 comment(s)
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http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski
I have a question in regard to defensive ratings. I have been in a simulation league using DMB software for the past 3 years. In that time I have noticed that a player is usually only rated to play positions in which he played the previous season, or is projected to play in the upcoming one. But in your projections, you have (for example) Albert Pujols rated at all corner infield and outfield positions. What is the logic behind rating him at positions (especially third) that he hasn't played in 2 years or more?
Are you involved with DMB and their defensive ratings, or are your ratings your personal predictions for players in 2005?
Thanks
This might have affected his projection. I'm hoping for a bounceback, but with him 29 it could be a little less likely.
Boilers
This might have affected his projection. I'm hoping for a bounceback, but with him 29 it could be a little less likely.
Spivey's correct.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/soriaal01.shtml
I was surprised at the Soriano projection, but it makes sense if you think he's turning 27 rather than 29.
F
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