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Primate Studies— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Monday, October 04, 2004
2005 ZiPS, Build 1
Note: There are a few fringe players that are no longer in any of these three organizations that were listed here for convenience (for example, Cory Aldridge).
Name P Age AVG OBP SPC AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HBP BB K SB CS
Vladimir Guerrero rf 29 .333 .405 .568 558 186 32 3 31 100 109 7 64 68 18 8
J.D. Drew* rf 29 .296 .417 .537 460 136 23 5 26 95 80 5 94 99 9 3
Richie Sexson 1b 30 .286 .388 .546 538 154 27 1 37 85 106 8 85 127 1 2
Marcus Giles 2b 27 .317 .396 .500 454 144 34 2 15 76 65 9 53 70 13 4
Chipper Jones# 3b 33 .278 .388 .491 515 143 27 1 27 79 92 2 94 89 3 1
Greg Colbrunn 1b 35 .296 .342 .556 108 32 8 1 6 15 14 0 8 15 0 0
Jose Guillen lf 29 .301 .356 .513 515 155 27 2 26 80 91 14 32 87 3 4
Adam LaRoche* 1b 25 .294 .367 .478 391 115 25 1 15 57 58 3 44 90 0 1
Luis Gonzalez* lf 37 .263 .379 .463 467 123 31 4 18 70 69 3 86 60 4 3
Casey Kotchman* 1b 22 .316 .369 .444 414 131 32 0 7 55 55 6 30 38 3 0
Andruw Jones cf 28 .272 .354 .502 596 162 34 2 33 92 103 5 74 138 6 5
Troy Glaus 3b 28 .258 .364 .471 391 101 18 1 21 68 67 4 63 93 6 3
Johnny Estrada# c 29 .306 .364 .440 445 136 33 0 9 49 64 8 35 56 0 0
Dallas McPherson* 3b 24 .275 .341 .513 501 138 26 6 27 88 85 5 47 153 14 8
Chad Tracy* 3b 25 .313 .367 .434 530 166 30 2 10 71 63 2 45 59 2 3
Eli Marrero rf 31 .283 .347 .476 286 81 17 1 12 42 45 1 28 53 5 2
Ryan Langerhans* rf 25 .276 .369 .441 460 127 27 2 15 80 61 5 65 109 8 6
Jeff DaVanon# cf 31 .280 .367 .436 314 88 15 2 10 48 43 1 44 55 14 6
Garret Anderson* lf 33 .299 .333 .488 551 165 37 2 21 67 88 0 30 77 4 3
Rafael Furcal# ss 27 .297 .358 .430 644 191 30 7 14 116 70 2 62 84 26 8
Charles Thomas* lf 26 .296 .363 .427 412 122 20 5 8 60 47 8 37 81 6 4
Robb Quinlan 1b 28 .304 .351 .442 425 129 24 4 9 60 53 4 29 71 5 4
Tim Salmon rf 36 .258 .357 .431 415 107 26 2 14 54 58 7 59 79 3 2
Shea Hillenbrand 1b 29 .297 .336 .456 563 167 35 2 17 69 75 11 25 64 2 1
Adam Kennedy* 2b 29 .288 .342 .411 465 134 24 3 9 63 55 5 33 72 17 8
Andy Marte 3b 21 .262 .345 .440 409 107 20 1 17 58 55 4 50 107 2 1
Carlos Quentin rf 22 .286 .333 .442 423 121 24 0 14 85 56 4 27 54 8 1
Conor Jackson lf 23 .272 .349 .422 408 111 24 2 11 71 50 4 46 67 7 3
Chone Figgins# 3b 27 .297 .357 .412 546 162 22 13 5 84 48 2 51 85 27 13
Craig Ansman c 27 .252 .321 .480 294 74 17 1 16 51 47 3 28 99 1 1
Adam Riggs 2b 32 .272 .321 .480 423 115 31 3 17 74 66 4 28 82 7 4
Alex Cintron# ss 26 .298 .340 .426 547 163 33 5 9 69 44 3 34 51 3 4
Josh Kroeger* rf 22 .294 .347 .423 385 113 23 3 7 56 45 3 30 77 5 5
Noochie Varner lf 24 .297 .354 .399 464 138 17 3 8 71 50 5 38 83 5 4
Kelly Johnson* lf 23 .271 .334 .433 432 117 25 3 13 61 51 5 38 103 12 5
Koyie Hill# c 26 .281 .340 .410 417 117 24 0 10 61 54 4 35 79 2 1
Chris Snyder c 24 .259 .333 .431 425 110 28 0 15 68 62 4 45 76 2 1
Scott Hairston 2b 25 .271 .319 .454 421 114 20 6 15 43 39 2 29 98 4 3
Carlos Baerga# 2b 36 .294 .345 .400 160 47 8 0 3 18 16 2 11 17 1 1
Damon Hollins lf 31 .270 .320 .449 381 103 27 1 13 48 54 4 25 66 4 3
Andy Green 2b 27 .283 .337 .419 442 125 35 2 7 44 36 4 34 58 10 7
Mike Hessman 1b 27 .253 .312 .466 395 100 19 1 21 55 62 4 31 96 2 3
Nick Gorneault lf 26 .271 .318 .442 498 135 31 3 16 82 69 5 31 132 8 5
Darin Erstad* 1b 31 .271 .325 .373 531 144 26 2 8 75 57 5 37 72 17 5
Danny Bautista rf 33 .281 .329 .396 445 125 22 1 9 49 50 4 30 58 5 2
Matt Kata# 2b 27 .274 .321 .414 449 123 26 5 9 65 45 3 30 73 5 4
Robby Hammock c 28 .264 .321 .406 318 84 20 2 7 41 38 2 26 59 3 3
Nick Green 2b 26 .270 .321 .407 378 102 21 2 9 47 44 5 25 82 3 4
Doug DeVore* rf 27 .257 .310 .426 397 102 21 2 14 51 51 3 29 98 5 4
Alan Zinter# 1b 37 .238 .313 .400 260 62 15 0 9 33 38 2 27 64 0 0
Julio Franco 1b 46 .266 .334 .358 271 72 11 1 4 30 32 1 28 62 2 1
Jeff Mathis c 22 .243 .322 .377 440 107 22 2 11 68 51 4 49 83 4 1
David Eckstein ss 30 .276 .343 .339 551 152 22 2 3 84 50 16 43 46 15 7
Bengie Molina c 30 .272 .306 .396 386 105 18 0 10 35 50 3 17 32 0 1
Quinton McCracken# rf 34 .266 .324 .378 233 62 14 3 2 30 21 1 20 41 3 4
Wilson Betemit# 3b 24 .253 .321 .376 423 107 17 4 9 51 45 3 41 101 5 4
Victor Hall* cf 24 .284 .350 .341 405 115 10 5 1 63 29 4 39 75 15 13
Barry Wesson cf 28 .262 .307 .387 393 103 22 3 7 43 43 4 23 85 9 4
DeWayne Wise* cf 27 .249 .295 .421 337 84 15 5 11 48 39 3 20 59 10 5
Andres Galarraga 1b 44 .240 .305 .361 288 69 14 0 7 28 34 6 21 79 1 3
Tim Olson 3b 26 .260 .313 .383 384 100 20 0 9 55 42 3 28 82 5 5
Oscar Salazar 2b 27 .246 .308 .388 338 83 17 2 9 35 41 3 29 57 3 3
Wil Nieves c 27 .268 .299 .382 380 102 19 3 6 45 40 4 14 61 4 1
Cory Aldridge* cf 26 .233 .299 .397 433 101 17 3 16 61 52 4 38 141 10 6
Luis Terrero cf 25 .269 .311 .369 431 116 17 7 4 70 37 2 24 99 13 17
Alberto Callaspo# ss 22 .269 .327 .327 520 140 14 2 4 72 49 5 42 22 21 7
Curtis Pride* lf 36 .255 .311 .385 247 63 12 1 6 55 29 3 18 53 5 6
Zach Sorensen# 2b 28 .265 .332 .349 415 110 15 4 4 63 37 4 39 73 18 15
Jose Molina c 30 .265 .298 .338 272 72 12 1 2 25 25 3 10 59 0 2
Gary Johnson* rf 29 .232 .314 .347 409 95 18 4 7 52 39 4 46 104 4 4
Mark DeRosa 2b 30 .255 .312 .344 294 75 14 0 4 34 29 4 21 46 1 2
Alfredo Amezaga# ss 27 .263 .314 .354 396 104 18 3 4 55 37 4 27 69 11 10
Scott Thorman* 1b 23 .235 .292 .365 468 110 19 3 12 44 54 4 35 95 5 2
Juan Brito c 25 .253 .295 .357 269 68 11 1 5 35 29 1 16 55 1 1
Eddie Perez c 37 .244 .283 .368 242 59 12 0 6 16 27 1 13 33 0 1
Reggie Abercrombie cf 24 .251 .276 .399 431 108 18 5 12 60 47 4 12 145 17 10
Jeff Francoeur rf 21 .245 .278 .367 433 106 16 2 11 60 48 5 16 78 9 4
Joe DePastino c 31 .237 .292 .332 283 67 13 1 4 28 28 1 22 53 1 0
Brad Cresse c 26 .231 .280 .361 299 69 18 0 7 35 33 3 18 88 0 0
Jerry Gil ss 22 .244 .275 .370 459 112 22 6 8 35 34 5 16 94 14 7
Josh Paul c 30 .241 .294 .311 241 58 9 1 2 21 21 2 17 52 3 3
Shane Halter 3b 35 .214 .274 .358 313 67 11 2 10 29 36 1 26 69 1 4
Jorge Velandia ss 30 .210 .286 .320 400 84 21 1 7 41 37 4 40 85 1 3
Cristian Guerrero cf 24 .232 .275 .348 405 94 14 3 9 48 42 4 21 94 11 8
Jackson Melian lf 25 .205 .270 .308 415 85 13 3 8 40 35 4 34 90 5 4
Onil Joseph cf 23 .238 .286 .282 425 101 9 2 2 53 28 4 26 97 23 11
Tony Pena ss 24 .234 .265 .320 465 109 16 0 8 53 37 5 16 100 22 15
Marland Williams cf 24 .234 .281 .312 458 107 15 3 5 74 32 5 27 111 37 25
Ryan Budde c 25 .207 .260 .302 358 74 10 0 8 44 36 3 24 86 2 3
Tom Gregorio c 28 .198 .242 .320 197 39 10 1 4 18 19 2 10 50 1 1
Donnie Sadler 2b 30 .158 .227 .225 240 38 7 3 1 33 20 2 20 35 6 5
Name Team P Age ERA W L S G GS CG SHO INN H R ER BB K HR GDP
John Smoltz cl 38 2.81 2 0 0 71 0 0 0 77.0 66 26 24 16 77 5 6
Francisco Rodriguez mr 23 2.82 6 2 0 61 0 0 0 83.0 59 28 26 32 116 6 7
Randy Johnson* sp 41 2.88 17 9 0 32 32 0 0 219.0 176 77 70 51 261 20 18
Brendan Donnelly mr 33 3.31 4 1 0 59 0 0 0 68.0 55 28 25 24 75 5 6
Scot Shields mr 29 3.63 8 3 0 53 6 0 0 119.0 111 52 48 37 103 9 10
Stephen Andrade mr 27 3.75 4 2 0 35 0 0 0 48.0 40 22 20 18 57 6 4
Matt Mantei cl 31 3.92 3 4 0 39 0 0 0 39.0 33 19 17 15 47 5 3
Jaret Wright sp 29 3.98 11 7 0 36 24 0 0 147.0 137 71 65 61 120 10 13
Buddy Hernandez mr 26 4.02 4 3 0 47 0 0 0 65.0 55 31 29 34 66 5 6
Kelvim Escobar sp 29 4.02 13 7 0 41 26 0 0 179.0 167 88 80 69 162 16 16
Juan Cruz sp 26 4.06 6 2 0 42 8 0 0 93.0 85 46 42 42 86 8 8
John Thomson sp 31 4.07 13 9 0 33 33 0 0 199.0 208 100 90 48 129 22 17
Mike Koplove mr 28 4.09 4 4 0 68 0 0 0 77.0 76 38 35 30 56 5 7
Kevin Gregg sp 27 4.12 8 5 0 41 17 0 0 131.0 130 66 60 40 107 14 11
Jose Valverde cl 25 4.14 3 4 0 61 0 0 0 63.0 51 31 29 32 80 7 6
Dusty Bergman* mr 27 4.15 4 3 0 51 4 0 0 89.0 93 45 41 24 61 9 8
Brandon Webb sp 26 4.16 9 12 0 32 31 0 0 188.0 172 96 87 93 163 13 17
Dan Meyer* sp 23 4.21 10 6 0 28 26 0 0 139.0 131 71 65 49 130 18 12
John Lackey sp 26 4.21 15 10 0 33 32 0 0 201.0 206 103 94 58 149 22 18
Oscar Villarreal mr 23 4.26 6 7 0 68 2 0 0 74.0 69 38 35 35 66 6 7
Brandon Medders mr 25 4.26 3 3 0 47 0 0 0 57.0 50 29 27 28 60 6 5
Will Cunnane mr 31 4.32 5 3 0 51 1 0 0 73.0 70 38 35 31 62 8 7
Paul Byrd sp 34 4.34 12 9 0 26 26 0 0 170.0 184 90 82 30 112 26 15
Antonio Alfonseca mr 33 4.38 5 3 0 69 0 0 0 72.0 72 38 35 30 47 5 6
Jose Capellan sp 24 4.40 5 4 0 18 17 0 0 86.0 80 46 42 48 68 5 8
Jeremy Ward mr 27 4.41 3 5 0 45 0 0 0 49.0 52 26 24 15 30 5 4
Randy Choate* mr 29 4.50 2 4 0 69 1 0 0 66.0 62 36 33 35 52 4 6
Chris Reitsma mr 27 4.54 8 7 0 58 11 0 0 117.0 125 65 59 35 72 14 10
Sam McConnell* sp 29 4.54 7 5 0 34 14 0 0 101.0 110 56 51 32 53 11 9
Roman Colon mr 25 4.55 6 5 0 56 5 0 0 97.0 100 53 49 39 66 10 9
Brian Bruney mr 23 4.57 4 5 0 60 0 0 0 63.0 53 35 32 45 65 4 6
Jarrod Washburn* sp 30 4.60 13 10 0 30 30 0 0 180.0 196 101 92 51 113 23 16
Bartolo Colon sp 32 4.60 16 12 0 33 33 0 0 219.0 231 121 112 70 154 28 20
Brandon Lyon mr 25 4.62 5 9 0 38 14 0 0 111.0 122 62 57 32 65 14 10
Matt Hensley sp 26 4.68 6 4 0 30 17 0 0 123.0 132 70 64 36 88 18 11
Dustin Nippert sp 24 4.72 3 5 0 15 15 0 0 80.0 72 46 42 51 72 6 7
Lance Cormier sp 24 4.73 7 11 0 32 29 0 0 156.0 166 90 82 59 101 18 14
Scott Service mr 38 4.76 2 4 0 46 0 0 0 51.0 50 29 27 20 51 9 5
Russ Ortiz sp 31 4.76 13 12 0 34 34 0 0 204.0 203 118 108 104 143 18 19
Greg Aquino mr 27 4.76 3 5 0 34 12 0 0 85.0 83 49 45 46 66 8 8
Casey Fossum* sp 27 4.79 6 11 0 35 25 0 0 141.0 139 82 75 56 129 22 13
Horacio Ramirez* sp 25 4.85 7 6 0 22 21 0 0 130.0 139 77 70 54 76 14 12
Mike Hampton* sp 32 4.85 11 11 0 30 30 0 0 180.0 195 106 97 77 89 16 17
Chuck Smith sp 35 4.87 6 5 0 24 20 0 0 122.0 124 72 66 51 97 17 11
Andrew Good sp 25 4.88 5 9 0 27 20 0 0 131.0 146 78 71 26 91 25 12
Edgar Gonzalez sp 22 4.92 7 12 0 30 26 0 0 159.0 176 96 87 48 102 25 14
Shane Nance* mr 27 4.94 4 6 0 59 1 0 0 71.0 70 43 39 33 62 10 6
Derrick Turnbow mr 27 4.95 4 4 0 51 2 0 0 80.0 77 48 44 44 71 9 7
Jeff Fassero* mr 42 4.97 4 7 0 53 8 0 0 96.0 104 58 53 41 53 11 9
Richard Fischer sp 24 4.99 5 4 0 24 21 0 0 119.0 129 73 66 40 84 19 11
Tim Drew sp 26 5.04 7 7 0 33 20 0 0 134.0 153 82 75 47 58 16 12
Kevin Gryboski mr 31 5.06 3 3 0 64 0 0 0 48.0 50 29 27 28 28 3 5
Troy Percival cl 35 5.06 3 2 0 53 0 0 0 48.0 47 29 27 23 45 7 4
Travis Smith sp 32 5.18 8 9 0 33 23 0 0 139.0 162 88 80 40 67 23 13
Ramon Ortiz sp 29 5.19 11 11 0 32 26 0 0 170.0 190 107 98 58 110 28 15
Shane Reynolds sp 37 5.20 6 11 0 25 24 0 0 142.0 160 90 82 55 76 20 13
Bobby Jenks sp 24 5.20 4 4 0 13 13 0 0 64.0 57 40 37 51 59 4 6
Chris Bootcheck sp 26 5.21 8 9 0 29 28 0 0 171.0 195 108 99 56 100 27 16
Jake Woods* sp 23 5.28 10 10 0 29 29 0 0 167.0 184 107 98 73 101 22 15
Phil Stockman sp 25 5.31 5 9 0 24 23 0 0 122.0 118 79 72 80 105 13 11
Steve Sparks sp 39 5.31 4 10 0 36 18 0 0 144.0 165 93 85 55 71 20 13
Alec Zumwalt mr 24 5.40 5 5 0 44 0 0 0 70.0 69 46 42 48 54 7 7
Aaron Sele sp 35 5.40 8 8 0 26 25 0 0 135.0 158 89 81 54 60 17 13
Tom Martin* mr 35 5.40 1 1 0 75 0 0 0 45.0 47 29 27 24 33 6 4
Mike Fetters mr 40 5.40 2 3 0 56 0 0 0 50.0 47 33 30 35 41 5 0
Chad Durbin sp 27 5.42 5 10 0 27 15 0 0 93.0 97 61 56 46 75 15 9
Armando Almanza* mr 32 5.60 3 3 0 45 0 0 0 45.0 44 31 28 25 41 8 4
Beltran Perez sp 23 5.63 2 5 0 33 14 0 0 123.0 136 85 77 61 79 19 12
Scott Dunn mr 27 5.66 6 7 0 43 7 0 0 89.0 87 61 56 61 79 11 8
Stephen Randolph* mr 31 5.68 4 9 0 40 14 0 0 111.0 112 77 70 74 87 14 11
Casey Daigle sp 24 5.70 5 11 0 28 26 0 0 158.0 185 110 100 60 85 29 15
Eric Cyr sp 26 5.72 4 5 0 21 16 0 0 85.0 91 59 54 50 60 12 8
Steve Green sp 27 5.76 8 10 0 26 26 0 0 125.0 135 88 80 76 79 15 12
Mike Gosling* sp 24 5.81 4 10 0 28 25 0 0 141.0 161 100 91 67 80 23 13
Matt Blank* sp 28 5.84 6 9 0 31 23 0 0 134.0 156 96 87 56 74 25 13
Delvin James sp 27 5.91 3 4 0 26 17 0 0 105.0 131 76 69 31 50 22 10
Brady Raggio mr 32 6.00 3 7 0 46 4 0 0 75.0 88 55 50 23 52 19 7
Tim Bittner* sp 25 6.08 7 10 0 27 20 0 0 111.0 119 82 75 76 75 14 11
Steve Smyth* sp 27 6.53 4 8 0 26 20 0 0 113.0 125 90 82 74 77 21 11
Bill Murphy* sp 24 6.90 3 13 0 26 26 0 0 133.0 145 112 102 97 111 29 13
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 04, 2004 at 11:11 AM | 24 comment(s)
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Also, Dan, would you mind posting your MLEs for '03 somewhere 'round these parts? Thanks!
Any numbers on how your projections compared to the actual DMB projections for 2004?
Any projection for Kyle Davies?
Thanks.
No idea, I don't have the actual DMB projections for 2004!
As for Davies, I get a 5.43 projected ERA with the Braves (he'll eppear on the DMB disk now, also). Of course, all the caveats about statistical projections of a 20-year-old pitcher with half a season above A-ball apply! I usually hold off on projecting players in that mold unless someone specifically requests them.
And whoever e-mailed me "YUR PROJECTIONS ARE STUPID WHERE IS BARRY BONDS" these are only 10% of the final projections!
Thanks! Looking forward to the rest of your ZiPS. It was one of my favorite features last offseason.
Another fan of the ZIPs projections here.
I used your projections for the 2004 Cards.
I made some guesses for the playing time of some of the players (using prorated projections based on ABs), and used the actual projected for the expected regulars (Pujols, Edmonds, et al).
When I added in pitchers and trued up for the estimated number of seasonal ABs, I got 851 runs--and they scored 854.
I'd call that a direct hit.
I was about 10 off for the Cubs, using the same method, and about 20 off for the Astros.
The pitchers for the Cards was way off (to the good) but for a Cards fan, that was a good thing.
Thanks again,
Dave
Man, Zips is waaay to nice to hitters, I'm sorry but there is absolutely NO way Aldridge does that, even if he got any major league PT, which he wont.
Very cool. Thanks.
Man, Zips is waaay to nice to hitters, I'm sorry but there is absolutely NO way Aldridge does that, even if he got any major league PT, which he wont."
Well, we'll find out! At least we'll find out how he does in AAA.
I'm constantly surprised by how often a projection I think is way wrong will come out right immediately next to a projection I think that was terrific will come out dead wrong.
Besides, 233/299/397 isn't exactly all that impressive either - I'd wager there are a *ton* of incompetent outfielders that could do that sort of sub-replacement level mush in a peak season. Look at Charles Thomas - he couldn't even hit as a 24-year-old repeating the Carolina League and he's had value.
Great job.
How heavily does ZiPS weight most recent performance against previous performances? I ask 'cause, y'know, Eli Marrero at .283/.347/.476? It's not just Marrero; there are other things (Noochie Varner's .354 OBP, Nick Green looking good with the bat for a utility IFer, etc) that made me wonder.
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