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That jives with BPro's SNWL (assumes league average offensive and bullpen support) which shows Blyleven with an expected W-L record of 13.5-11.7 for 1979. That still leaves him as a 12th best pitcher in the NL by SNLVAR.
In the less-sophisticated RA+ PythPat system I've been using, I have that as 14.6-11.8. One tidbit: I have his RA+ (113) a little better than his ERA+ (109), so in that year, his unearned runs were a slightly below par.
In his best year, 1973, his RA+ (148) wasn't as good as his ERA+ (158), but that's still good for a 24-12 equivalent record.
I recall that it was all these no decisions (and lack of complete games) that led to Blyleven making himself unpopular in Pittsburgh. Accustomed to finishing what he started, Mike's work suggests he might have only gotten two more victories. Blyleven's public griping led to such nicknames as "Cryleven" and "The Crying Dutchman".
Is this a revelation? His ERA+ was 109.
If you can show that he wasn't very good in 1977--then that might be interesting. So he wasn't all that great in a season he put up an ERA+ of 109. Call me shocked.
This was a pattern that played out through Bert's career. Bert was very good with a huge lead, but his performance dipped when the game was tight.
Bert Blyleven came on in relief in the 6th inning of Game 5 of that god-forsaken World Series - on TWO days' rest, the day before his scheduled Game 6 start - and pitched four shutout innings to win the game and help stave off elimination. Geeze, he pitched 10 IP (only Bibby pitched more - 10-1/3) and had a 1.80 ERA in that World Series. And in the regular season, the Pirates had a lower winning percentage than the Expos in games started by somebody other than Bert Blyleven. And as Shock noted, that was actually one of his poorer seasons.
The Expos finished 2nd that year with 96 wins! And anyway, the Pirates had a .600 winning percentage in games started by someone other than Bert, and that was better than the Expos .594 winning percentage. And, by the way, the Pirates won a lower percentage of Bert's starts in '79 than Don Robinson's, Bruce Kison's or Jim Bibby's.
Bert won 12 of his 37 starts for a great team that won the World Series. That's terrible.
It's equally true to say that Bert Blyleven started 37 games that year and only lost 5 games.
You're right. My bad.
Yeah, but as Mike points out above, he left 9 games when behind and the Pirates rallied to bail him out. Bert's record in '79 would have been something like 13-12 but for all these Pirate comebacks.
I like Blyleven, and I'll be the first to admit that he didn't pitch anywhere near the level that I expected of him in 1979. He still had an era+ of 109, which is far from being bad.
If the purpose of this article was to tell us that his 12-5 record was out of whack, then I absolutely agree. It should have been much worse. There is a reason why I pay little attention to w/l records, and it is because they are pretty much useless when it comes to evaluating a pitcher.
Why not break down Blyleven's other seasons such as 1976 when he only got an average of 2.66 runs of support?
This is for the troll "Tommy in CT", whose every post is so misleading and negative of Blyleven. Blyleven was good in in 1977. You don't get an era+ of 151 by not being very good. In Blyleven's 13 losses, his team scored 32 runs. That is an average of 2.46 runs per game.
You guys keep up your fascination with wins and losses. I know good pitching when I see it.
I wrote the article primarily in response to people (including Blyleven himself) who complained that Tanner's handling of him during his time in Pittsburgh cost him his 300 wins. Since Blyleven established a record in 1979 with his 20 no-decisions, it seemed to be logical to look at that season first.
Given the way that Blyleven actually pitched, the only conclusion that I can draw is that Blyleven expected Tanner to manage in a way to maximize Blyleven's chances at a win, rather than maximizing the team's chances for a win. Tanner - to his credit, IMO - handled Blyleven exactly the way he handled every other starter.
-- MWE
Were the pitchers that Bert faced equal, better or worse to Doyle that year?
Take 2.
Were the pitchers that Bert faced equal, better or worse than the ones that Doyle faced that year?
4/6: Blyleven pitches well enough to win, but Pirates only reward him with a single run.
4/21: deserved to lose
4/25: Blyleven again pitches decently enough to win, going 6 2/3 while yielding 2 earned runs. Pirates again score only one run for him while he was in the game, but were kind enough to tie it later.
5/1: Blyleven goes 8 strong innings, yielding only 2 hits and 2 earned runs. Another could have been a win, but Pirates reward him with only 2 runs scored.
5/5: deserved to lose
5/11: good no decision
5/16: Blyleven goes 8 strong innings, giving up just 2 earned runs, but Pirates reward him with a single run while he was in the game
5/26: deserved to lose
5/31: Pitched well enough to win, but bullpen can't hold lead
6/10: pitched okay, giving up 2 earned runs in 5 innings. No fault with pitcher or team.
7/8: Blyleven goes 7 innings, yielding 1 earned run. Team rewards him with a sole run.
7/19: deserved to lose
8/5: pitched poorly, but 2 unearned runs don't help cause
8/10: pitched okay, going 7 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. Pirates only score a single run while he was in the game.
8/20: pitched poorly
8/25: Blyleven gives up a single earned run in 7 innings, but gets 0 runs from his team while in game
9/8: Blyeven goes 7 innings, yielding 2 earned runs, but Pirates give him no runs to work with while in the game
9/15: Blyleven fails to hold lead, his fault.
9/19: Blyleven pitches okay, going 5 innings and yielding 2 earned runs. He gets a lone run while in game.
9/29: Team comes back to tie game for Bert, who did not pitch well
There are 11 games there where Blyleven could have won with better run support while he was in the game. There are about 6 games where he absolutely deserved to lose. The other 3 games are typical of no decisions where the pitcher doesn't pitch great, but at least gets enough support to bail him out.
Your primary focus was that Blyleven only left with the lead twice, and while that may be true, he really wasn't to blame for that. When he did pitch well, his team only rewarded him with a run, maybe 2 if he was lucky.
People can see different things. I see Blyleven getting virtually no run support when he did pitch well. I see the fact that he only left with the lead only twice as a pro in his favour because when you do look at the game logs you wonder why the Pirates couldn't score for him in many of those games. The fact that his team couldn't score runs for him in the games he did pitch well isn't Blyleven's fault, but I guess you could fault that to Blyleven too if you really wanted to spin things.
Actually, looking back at that year, it wasn't as bad as I thought, given that I have very high expectations of Blyleven, and I consider 1979 to be one of his off years.
Every single one of his wins was a quality start win. My quality starts are 6 to 8 2/3 innings while allowing 2 earned runs or less, or 9 innings or more while allowing 3 earned runs or less, so that the era always stays at 3.00 or lower. 2 of his losses were quality starts.
1979 was an off year for Blyleven. I feel funny saying that because many pitchers would be happy with an era+ of 109, but many pitchers aren't Blyleven.
Thanks for clearing that up. I've honestly been a little bewildered by much of the fascination with Blyleven's 1979 season. It always seemed to me that the 34 losses in '73-'74 while throwing 606 innings of 150 ERA+ were a much bigger drag on his shot at 300 wins than Chuck Tanner's quick hook. But since 1979 is the topic du jour, I'll just note that Blyleven led the Pirates in IP. Other starters pitched better, but Bert threw 30 more innings than Candelaria and 65 more than Kison. He was arguably the most valuable pitcher on a WS champion, and somehow that is counted against his HOF case.
He wasn't very good in '77. He had a 14-12 record despite getting good run support. Doyle Alexander, by contrast, received less run support than Bert and posted a 17-10 record.
The Rangers scored 146 runs in Blyleven's 30 starts. They scored 47 of those runs in just three of those games. That's 25% of the run support in 10% of the starts. The Rangers also scored 11 runs in two of Alexander's 34 starts. Take away those five games and the two pitchers had essentially equal average run support. And while Alexander made four more starts, he pitched only three more innings. Finally, the Rangers were 18-16 in Alexander's starts and 18-12 in Blyleven's.
Bert had better run support, and fewer games than Doyle where he received 1 run or less, 2 runs or less, 3 runs or less and 4 runs or less. But Doyle pitched much better in such low scoring games. Similarly, Bert burnished his ERA in games where the Rangers gave him huge early leads, winning shutouts by scores of 13-0, 14-0, 6-0 and 5-0. In games where Doyle got huge run support, he gave up meaningless runs, runs that never threatened the Rangers lead. Doyle won, but his ERA was inflated by these runs.
Bert: 4-11. Doyle: 9-6. That was the difference that year - Doyle's superiority in low scoring, tight games.
Blyleven was fantastic in 1977. 20 of his 30 starts were quality starts. Not your typical quality starts, but what I consider quality starts. 6 to 8 2/3 innings while allowing less than 2 or fewer earned runs, or 9 innings or more, while allowing 3 or fewer earned runs.
He was unfortunate to lose 4 of those times he pitched a quality start, and of the 12 losses he had that year, his team scored for him a grand total of 32 runs.
Wins and losses are a horrible way to judge a pitchers true ability. Wins and losses doesn't take account run support, particularly how many runs a team scores for a pitcher while he is still in the game.
The Win Probability Added statistic neatly captures the element of pitching in critical situations, including tight, low scoring games. Alexander's WPA in '77 was 2.74. Bert's was 2.10. That's why Alexander was the better pitcher that year, and that's an example of how ERA+ can be misleading.
Blyleven amassed roughly 32 WPA during his career. Given his innings total, that converts to something like 85 wins above replacement, which is well above any Hall of Fame baseline I've ever heard of.
Alexander vs Blyleven in 1977 is an example of how W-L record, not ERA+, can be misleading.
I'm confused now, what the hell. Did Bert get too few runs or too many? It's like you Bert Freaks are like the Three Bears - the run support for Bert has to be just right.
Doyle Alexander was the much better pitcher than Bert in '77.
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Who cares?
But if one does, it's interesting to note this from B-R PI: Blyleven started 30 games in 1977, with a median Game Score of 65. 23 of his 30 starts (77%) resulted in Game Scores of 50 or better.
Alexander started 34 games, with a median Game Score of 55. 21 of his 34 starts (62%) saw a Game Score of 50 or better.
Now Game Score is just a fun device, not a real serious metric, but it gives points for things that help prevent runs and subtracts them for things that yield runs, the object of the game. And with two pitchers on the same team, it makes for a handy eyeball comparison.
Sooo ... given that Blyleven went out and consistently pitched better ballgames than Alexander that year (which of course gets reflected, like, in his ERA)
then the only way to say that Alexander was better is to resort to some sort of pitching-to-the-score argument, which can't be refuted because it takes W-L record as the only thing that matters, end of discussion. In other words, refuting a pitching-to-the-score argument is like talking to a wall.
STAT **Blyleven ** Alexander
ERA+ ** 151 ** 113
WAR ** 5.7 **3.4
WARP3 ** 5.0 ** 2.9
VORP ** 64.2 ** 44.2
RAA ** 33 ** 15
PRAR ** 48 ** 29
PRAA ** 23 ** 3
DERA ** 3.59 ** 4.40
Blyeven beats Alexander comfortably in every measure.
Alexander does beat Blyleven by having a better w/l record 17-11 to 14-12, which only goes to show people who have a clue, that w/l record is pretty much useless.
I had some time to kill. I know 99% of the astute posters here already knew that Blyleven was better than Alexander in 1977.
Bert pitched poorly in tight games but pitched shutouts when he was given 13 and 14 runs. Alexander pitched great in tight games but gave up meaningless runs in two games in which he was given 11 runs to work with. Bert was 4-11 in games in which he received four or fewer runs of support; Doyle was 9-6.
This was a pattern that played out through Bert's career. Bert was very good with a huge lead, but his performance dipped when the game was tight.
As a point of fact Bert is credited with 15 1-0 wins. Only two pitchers in MLB's modern era are credited with more, Christy Matthewson and Walter Johnson. It seems as if Bert excelled when the game was tight because that is winning with the barest minimum of run support. He also had a 3-2 win in game 2 of the 1979 World Series. He had numerous other games that he pitched very well (such as in 1972 pitching 10 scoreless innings). I could go on but the fact is Blyleven deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and I can prove he was a better pitcher than Carlton over the course of their careers.
I think Blyleven belongs in the Hall, but this is a little bit . . . radical.
One plus for Blyleven is his career ERA+ was 118 and Carlton's was 115. Also, Blyleven had more shutouts than Carlton. Blyleven's WHIP was better than Carlton's even though Blyleven only had 6 seasons not facing the DH and Carlton only had the equivalent of one season facing the DH. I also figured out that Blyleven was a top 5 pitcher in his league 8 times and a top 10 pitcher an additional 3 times. Carlton, on the other hand, was top 5 five times and top 10 an additional 3 times. In career runs allowed per 9 innings pitched they are the same. That means Blyleven was better when his team's fielding failed and didn't collapse when having to get that 4th out. And here's the real kicker, While Carlton had more career K's he beefed that stat up with pitchers. Take out K's of pitchers for both and Blyleven had more K's. This means Blyleven was better at getting those K's when facing a real batter.
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