Did the Phillies ruin the career of Brett Myers?

First off, a couple qualifications.  The question in the title makes the big assumption that Myers’s career is in trouble.  That’s obviously an unsettled question.  Secondly, the only honest answer to the question above is “I don’t know.” Pitchers are a mercurial breed, often breaking out or collapsing at odd points in their careers, based on either a new pitch, a trick delivery, or, conversely, on a sudden drop in velocity or mental breakdown.  There could be thousands of reason why Brett Myers has gone from a potential ace to one of the worst pitchers in baseball during the first half of the 2008 season.  I know very little about his personal life or his “makeup,” and less about pitcher mechanics; these are all possible reasons for why he has been getting rocked to the tune of 24 HR in 101 2/3 IP, or why his WHIP is higher in his age 27 season than it was at 21.

The case here, then, is more prosecutorial than an objective search for the truth.  I’m specifically selecting and presenting one set of arguments out of many to argue for why the Phillies, in particular Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel, bear responsibility for the rapid decline of Brett Myers.  With those rather large caveats in mind, let’s begin.

The Ace

Return to April 2nd, 2007.  It’s opening day at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark and Brett Myers in on the mound.  The Phillies, after a disappointing 2006 campaign, have patched up the holes in their rotation, replacing dead weight like Scott Mathieson, Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd with proven veterans Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton.  In fact, after having only two decent starters at the beginning of 2006 (Myers and Lieber) they open the 2007 campaign with an apparent embarrassment of riches with six proven starters: Myers, Garcia, Eaton, Lieber, Jamie Moyer, and Cole Hamels.

Obviously, someone is going to have to move to the pen, but there are no obvious candidates.  Lieber, Moyer, Eaton and Garcia are all paid decent wages (around $30M total) to be starters, not set-up men or long relievers.  Hamels is the new star, has been dominant as a starter his entire career, and has been injury prone: no way.  And Myers?  Well, he certainly has a nice two-pitch repertoire with a 93 mph fastball and wicked curve, and even seems to posses that elusive closer “mentality,” but why move him?  He is 26, and the last two seasons he had logged 413 innings, with an ERA+ of 118 and 120.  While there were some small rumblings in a few blogs about moving him to the bullpen, it isn’t discussed publicly by the Phillies.

By opening day, the crowded picture has received a little clarification, as both Lieber and Garcia hit the DL with what are thought at the time to be minor injuries.  For now, things appear okay, and Myers is on the mound, dominating.  Thought seven innings, he has held the Braves to 3 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs, and has struck out 8.  He has thrown 95 pitches.  The Phils lead 3-2.  It’s opening day.  The Phillies have $8M closer Tom Gordon, Geoff Geary, and Madson all obviously rested.  Manuel sends out Myers to start the 8th.

After retiring the first two batters, Edgar Renteria hits a game-tying home run to deep center field, and Myers’s day is done.  Matt Smith and Gordon get the Phillies through the 8th and 9th, but in the tenth Madson allows a two-run home run to Renteria.  The Phils go quietly in the bottom of the tenth, and 45,000 fans head home after watching an opening day victory slip away.

The Move

In retrospect, opening day of 2007 foreshadowed two of the major problems for the Phillies in April: Brett Myers and the bullpen.  After his fine opening day performance, Myers had two of his worst starts ever as a starting pitcher, failing to get out of the fifth against Florida and Houston, and giving up 18 baserunners and 13 runs in a combined 7 2/3.  The bullpen was almost as bad.  Two days after the opening day loss, Madson gave up another extra-inning home run, this time after Gordon blew a two-run lead in ninth.  Rumors about a possible injury to Gordon began to swirl, and Madson, who had been assumed to be the 8th inning set-up man, lost his job before ever actually pitching in a “hold” situation.

With Lieber and Garcia ready to return, the Phillies then had three problems: too many starters, and ineffective opening day pitcher, and a weak bullpen.  All of these, of course, could be solved by one move: Myers to the pen.

While many people remember it as Myers moving to the closer role, the initial move was actually only as a set-up man, as Gordon, who had been an all-star the year before, was given the leeway to work through his struggles.  And so on April 18th, with the Phillies trailing the Washington Nationals 5-4 in the eighth, Brett Myers made the second relief appearance of his major league career, and his first since 2004.

The Use

The Phillies decision to move a young, promising ace to the bullpen - even as a set-up man - can be defended.  Someone had to move there, and after a brief and disastrous experiment with Lieber in the pen, Myers seemed the obvious answer.  Heck, he even wanted to do it, so why not?  Many people at the time thought it was a rash decision to make three weeks into the season, and they might have been right.  The Phillies knew that they had six starters and a bullpen of Gordon, Madson, and Geary in January: why not make this move in spring training?  But even granting some poor planning, moving Myers at the time seemed to solve a lot of problems.

What can’t be defended as easily was Manuel’s overuse of a lifelong starter in the bullpen.  Instead of gradually easing him into the role, Manuel treated Myers like he was Mariano Rivera circa 1996, using him often, and for multiple innings.  Between his bullpen debut and his final outing before being injured on May 23rd, Myers had the following line.

18 G, 20 2/3 IP.

That’s in 34 team games.  If you prorate that out over a 162 game season, it translates to 86 appearances, and 94 IP.  For comparisons sake, the last two NL appearances leaders were Jon Rauch and Salomon Torres, who worked 88 and 94 games, respectively.  But even with those gaudy totals, Myers pace of 94 IP would have still been more than either Rauch or Torres threw in those seasons!  In short, after an in-season move to the pen at age 26 after a career of starting every fifth day, Myers was worked as hard as any reliever in baseball over the previous two years.

The most taxing part of this period undoubtedly was between May 12 and May 20, the last stretch of games before his May 23rd implosion and subsequent trip to the DL.  This stretch began with a 2 inning, 35 pitch performance against Chicago in a game the Phillies won 11-7 (Myers entered the game with the Phillies leading by 4).  After pitching 2 innings of a 4-run game, Myers returned on the 14th with a relatively tidy 14 pitch save.  Then he pitched 1 1/3 on May 15th, throwing 24 pitches.  Then another inning on the 16th, his third day in a row, pitching the ninth of a game where the Phillies held a four run lead.  I’ll repeat that: three weeks after being moved to the bullpen, Brett Myers was brought into his third game in a row to close out a 4 run lead.

After a day off, Myers was out there again, for a tough 24-pitch outing on the 18th.  Another day off.  Then, in his last effective performance for two months, 1 1/3 innings and another 24 pitches.  All told, in a nine game stretch, Myers appeared in six games, threw 7 2/3 innings, and 134 pitches, a pace usually reserved for elite closers in the post-season.  Three days later he was rocked by Florida, giving up 4 runs in 2/3, and that week, for the first time in his career, Brett Myers found himself on the DL.

2008 - What Happened?

After a two month recovery, Myers returned to the Phillies bullpen and pitched very well, anchoring the back end of a bullpen that was as important as anything else in helping the Phillies catch the Mets.  In that final stretch, Myers had a 3.02 ERA and a 3:1 K/BB ratio.  His fastball climbed to 94-95, and he ended up on the mound September 30th as the Phils clinched their first division title in 14 years.  But Myers worked multiple innings several times, and his usage was barely curtailed: the last two months put him on pace for about 80 games and 85-90 innings over 162 games.  A little better than the murderous stretch in May, but not by much.  This was a lot of work for any pitcher, let alone a converted starter just coming back from 60 days on the DL.

Myers may have been the closer of the future, but the Phillies pulled off a big trade to acquire Brad Lidge, realizing that they needed a starter, and that the best one on the market was sitting in their bullpen.  However, the 2008 season has gone poorly for Myers, with his fastball topping out at around 88-90, and the Phillies losing 11 of his last 12 starts.  He hasn’t looked remotely like the pitcher of 2005-2006, and last week, he was demoted to AA.

It seems a long time from when Myers was taking the hill opening day in 2007, ready to become one of the top starters in the NL.  There are many reasons why his velocity is way down and is in AA after posting a 5.84 ERA, many that might not be related at all to his strenuous workload in 2007.  Pitching coach Rich Dubee has said his velocity is fine and that he just needs to locate better.  Some blog posters claim it’s all in his head.  Maybe it’s the bad karma from the mean Kyle Kendrick prank?  But no matter the actual reason, the Phillies, after a reckless execution of the bold idea to turn Myers from one of their best starters into a closer, may find themselves with neither.