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Tuesday, November 20, 2001

Baseball Primer’s 2001 Rookies of the Year

In 2001, 110 different players made their major league debuts, with yet more still retaining their rookie status.  Despite the usual influx of fresh blood, there really was apparently little question as to the best two rookies of the year with the BBWAA, the Internet Baseball Awards, and now, the Baseball Primer voting, all going for Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners and Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals.  The only controversy, if there is one, is whether or not Suzuki is deserving of being labelled a rookie because of his extensive career in Japan.

Regardless, this year’s Rookie of the Year election was probably the easiest since 1997, when voters had the obvious choices of Scott Rolen and Nomar Garciaparra.  That you can even make an MVP argument for both Pujols and Suzuki with a straight face is an amazing thing in itself.

AL Voting

  Player Total Pts (1st)
1st

Ichiro Suzuki

50 (10)

2nd

C.C. Sabathia

33 (1)

3rd

David Eckstein

 6

4th

Alfonso Soriano

 6

5th

Joel Piniero

 3

6th

Brent Abernathy

 1

Ichiro Suzuki
Anyway you look at it, Suzuki had a magnificent season for the Mariners, creating a reputation of almost mythic proportions while the Mariners destroyed all comers.  Suzuki’s clear strength was his batting average, leading the league with a .350 average, strong enough to withstand his pedestrian walk rate and below-average power.  When on-base, there’s probably no player as fun to watch as Ichiro, who possessed speed that even Vince Coleman would be unashamed of.  That speed suits Suzuki well in rightfield and he sports a very accurate and strong arm, although not one quite as strong as vintage Jesse Barfield.  All season long I was wondering if pitchers would start to be able to take advantage of Suzuki’s eagerness to put the ball in play, but they couldn’t.  Perhaps they won’t be able to until Suzuki’s bat speed slows down as he heads towards middle age.

C.C. Sabathia
In most seasons, Sabathia’s likely a very strong Rookie of the Year candidate with a 17-5 record, almost a strikeout per inning, mostly before his 21st birthday.  Even though he ended up with only a league average ERA, he showed tremendous poise and had stretches in which he was completely unhittable.  Sabathia probably has the most long-term potential of any of the AL Rookies this season and perhaps of any current pitcher, period.  Built like a tank, Sabathia stands 6’7” and has to be at least 30 solid pounds over his listed weight of 235.  Sabathia was generally kept around 110 pitches and after the Indians had essentially wrapped up the division, was pulled frequently before 100 pitches even when games were close.  If his arm holds up (not because of abuse, but because of any pitcher at that age being risky), he could be a great one.

David Eckstein
Eckstein was a player that excited me after his big OBP season a few years ago while still in the Red Sox organization.  Despite being a little disappointing upon reaching higher levels, the Angels lapped him up when the Red Sox dumped him in 2000 (while picking guys like Rico Brogna and Ed Sprague) and gave him every chance to succeed.  Eckstein finally did what injuries and logic could not, essentially ending Gary DiSarcina’s relationship with the Angels’ organization, making the fairly difficult switch from 2B to SS on the fly.  While Eckstein’s probably too old to have a high upside, but he’s shown in the minors a greater ability to walk than he did in the majors this year and if he can avoid too many months like September (216/293/243), he can be a useful starter for the Angels for the next 5 years, even if he’s just average.  Not bad for a player too small to make the WNBA.

Alfonso Soriano
Soriano certainly did not suffer for lack of media attention in his rookie year and even during the year, was frequently hyped as a current star.  He did, however, display some nice power at times, giving hope that he might someday slug enough to be a good player and his walk rate improved somewhat during the season to end up being better than, well, Shawon Dunston.  Undoubtedly, Soriano worked very hard to become a full-time second baseman when the Yankees decided to shift Chuck Knoblauch to leftfield, but Soriano still usually looked like a leftfielder playing second base.  The Yankees, however, might as well think of Soriano as a full-time 2B and work on improving him there (which seems to be the plan) as Soriano’s unlikely to be much more than Wil Cordero as an outfielder. 

Joel Pineiro
It’s amazing to look at Seattle and see that the formerly-infamous bullpen has now become one of the team’s strengths.  Whether serving as a starter (2.36 ERA in 11 starts) or a reliever (1 run allowed on 3 hits in 14.1 innings), Pineiro was a solid contributor to the Mariners despite not even being in Seattle for a full season.

Brent Abernathy
Abernathy is, I believe, the guy who got a vote because of someone deciding Suzuki was not qualified for the Rookie of the Year candidate.  A starter at 2B for about half the season with the Devil Rays with Russ Johnson and Damian Rolls covering the job the rest of time, Abernathy, as a player, is about as vanilla as they come, being slmot dead average in almost every offensive skill and even defense.  It beat having Damian Rolls starting, however.  Abernathy’s future is probably more that of a really good utility player than as a starting second baseman.

NL Voting

  Player

Total Points (1st)

1st

Albert Pujols

55 (11)

2nd

Roy Oswalt

28

3rd

Jimmy Rollins

11

4th

Adam Dunn

11

5th

Ben Sheets

 1

6th

Bud Smith

 1

Albert Pujols
Although probably not the slam-dunk choice that Ichiro was in the AL (aside from the rookie definition controversy), Pujols clearly was a deserving choice for the NL award.  Not to take anything away from Roy Oswalt, but by the time Oswalt finally became a full-time starter in June, Pujols had already spent two months terrorizing NL pitching, ending up at a super 329/403/610.  Even more amazingly, despite jumping a few levels of minor league ball and ostensibly only being 21, Pujols went through the entire season without any kind of prolonged slump.  All this while shuffling back and forth between all four corners during the season based on injuries and/or Tony LaRussa’s whims.  I do hope the Cardinals come to their senses and leave Pujols alone at 3rd as he’s perfectly capable there.

Roy Oswalt
If only Oswalt had been able to be in the rotation for the entire year, we may have had a great debate between Pujols and Oswalt for the Rookie of the Year award.  As it was, Oswalt will half to settle for merely being one of the top starting pitchers in baseball for 4 months with a 2.73 ERA in 141.2 innings and a miniscule 24 walks.  Despite the excellent strikeout total (around a K an inning for Oswalt), he’s almost the polar opposite of Sabathia, slight of build and without the eye-popping fastball.  Oswalt’s as polished as any fine gemstone, however, with command well above what you would expect from a player who just turned 24 near the end of the season.  All this took place in the unfriendly confines (although not near the unfriendliness of Planet Coors) of Enron Field.

Jimmy Rollins
Rollins enjoyed a nice little year, even making the All-Star game as one of the last optional selections of Bobby Valentine.  Add 20 or 30 points of OBP to Rollins and you have a good shortstop to have hitting 2nd in your lineup.  Rollins might even be smaller than David Eckstein but still managed to hit 14 home runs, which is a pretty impressive total, all things considered.  He won’t be one of the Rodriguez/Garciaparra Gods, but Rollins should be an above-average shortstop for a long time, especially if he can continue to crank out the surprising power and leg out the triples.  Rollins is, however, the type of player to whom a leg injury could be devestating.

Adam Dunn
Yet another fine NL Rookie and only down this low because he only played 66 games in the majors,  Dunn is a polished slugger and hit an impressive 19 home runs in only 244 at-bats.  For a 21 year-old slugger, Dunn had an impressive ability to not flinch at hearing the words “ball four” with 38 walks, giving him a .371 on-base percentage despite only having a .261 batting average.  Dunn is a huge guy, too, well-built and plenty capable of hitting 50 home runs as soon as next year barring some unforseen misfortune.  He might very well battle with a healthy Ken Griffey Jr. for the title of Best Cincinnati Red.

Ben Sheets
Sheets is an unfortunate example of a young pitcher getting severely injured even when the manager takes great pains to be careful.  After pitching through what was diagnosed as rotator cuff tendinitis for a month (and very carefully as he was generally under 100 pitches at that point), Sheets had to be put on the shelf, prematurely ending his season.  Don’t be fooled by his 4.79 ERA at the time he was placed on the disabled list; it was a run lower when he started to have arm problems.  The Brewers were careful at putting Sheets back on the mound, but he was less impressive in 4 limited September/October starts.  A full offseason should do Sheets good.

Bud Smith
June callup and another good rookie starting pitcher, Smith burst into the public consciousness with a 134 pitch no-hitter against the Padres at the beginning of September and ended the year with a solid 3.83 ERA in 84.2 innings.  To LaRussa’s credit, Smith’s 134 pitches in his no-hitter was by far the highest of the season, with Smith only throwing over 100 pitches on two other occasions.  For people that get the Cards’ young pitchers confused, Smith is the one that isn’t trying out for the NFL or trying out to be a Steve Dalkowski impersonator.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2001 at 12:00 AM | 2 comment(s)
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   1. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: November 20, 2001 at 08:14 PM (#604267)
Good article overall, but I'd love to know how you feel you can make an argument for Albert Pujols (or anyone other than Barry Bonds) for NL MVP. Even the BBWAA got this one right, voting unanimously for Bonds.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2001 at 08:14 PM (#604271)
I don't think a convincing one can be made. However, you could conceivably argue that Pujols playing multiple positions while hitting so well had a great deal of extra value to the Cardinals this season with their specific injuries. Like Pete Rose in the mid-70s, Pujols created a lot of roster flexibility for LaRussa.

I'm not convinced by this argument in the slightest; in fact, in our NL MVP voting, I left 2nd place blank on purpose, stating that Bonds was so far ahead of the competition that placing someone 2nd makes them seem like they were in the same galaxy of Bonds. However, I think the case can be made without any self-irony and Pujols might very well have a better NL MVP case than Ichiro did.

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