|
|
|
|
Primate Studies— Where BTF's Members Investigate the Grand Old Game
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Fun with Leverage, Part 2: Leveraged Performance, 2004-2007
I promised I’d do this update the other day, so here ‘tis. I described what I did in detail here last year. The group of players in the table below had 250 PAs in each of the last four years (2004-2007) and posted an OPS of at least .850 over those four years. The first four columns are unweighted BA/OBP/SLG/OPS, the next four are the same numbers when the PAs are weighted by LI (so a PA with LI=0 is excluded, and a PA with LI=2.0 is weighted at two times a PA with LI=1.0, etc.), and the final column is the difference between the weighted and unweighted OPS. The players at the top of the list are those whose performance in high-LI situations was excellent; the ones at the bottom are those who did not perform well in high-LI situations.
Player BA OBP SLG OPS LevBA LevOBP LevSLG LevOPS OPSDiff
Delgado C 0.273 0.366 0.527 0.893 0.296 0.391 0.571 0.962 0.068
Guerrero V 0.327 0.392 0.566 0.958 0.345 0.425 0.598 1.023 0.064
Pujols A 0.330 0.426 0.626 1.052 0.340 0.445 0.669 1.114 0.062
Beltran C 0.271 0.359 0.518 0.877 0.291 0.381 0.553 0.933 0.056
Ortiz D 0.304 0.408 0.616 1.024 0.324 0.427 0.641 1.068 0.043
Ramirez A 0.305 0.362 0.564 0.926 0.316 0.380 0.587 0.967 0.042
Konerko P 0.283 0.367 0.528 0.894 0.305 0.396 0.539 0.935 0.041
Helton T 0.322 0.438 0.531 0.969 0.324 0.459 0.547 1.005 0.037
Jeter D 0.317 0.387 0.464 0.850 0.328 0.407 0.478 0.886 0.035
Wright D 0.311 0.388 0.533 0.921 0.328 0.402 0.553 0.955 0.035
Berkman L 0.301 0.417 0.556 0.973 0.308 0.442 0.564 1.006 0.033
Giambi J 0.247 0.399 0.494 0.892 0.253 0.411 0.511 0.921 0.029
Griffey K 0.274 0.354 0.519 0.874 0.281 0.367 0.534 0.900 0.027
Abreu B 0.292 0.406 0.481 0.887 0.288 0.415 0.496 0.912 0.025
Posada J 0.288 0.389 0.488 0.877 0.301 0.399 0.499 0.899 0.022
Teixeira M 0.292 0.379 0.552 0.932 0.293 0.393 0.560 0.953 0.021
Dunn A 0.253 0.381 0.538 0.919 0.253 0.390 0.549 0.939 0.020
Drew JD 0.287 0.404 0.502 0.906 0.289 0.415 0.506 0.921 0.015
Lee C 0.293 0.350 0.520 0.870 0.298 0.359 0.525 0.884 0.014
Rodriguez A 0.303 0.403 0.573 0.976 0.307 0.411 0.579 0.990 0.014
Dye J 0.278 0.342 0.522 0.864 0.285 0.350 0.518 0.868 0.004
Jones C 0.302 0.401 0.560 0.962 0.297 0.409 0.556 0.966 0.004
Utley C 0.304 0.377 0.533 0.911 0.303 0.382 0.531 0.913 0.002
Edmonds J 0.271 0.376 0.524 0.900 0.274 0.380 0.518 0.898 -0.002
Martinez V 0.302 0.376 0.484 0.860 0.301 0.379 0.478 0.857 -0.003
Burrell P 0.264 0.386 0.492 0.878 0.266 0.393 0.477 0.871 -0.007
Guillen C 0.313 0.377 0.506 0.883 0.307 0.383 0.492 0.874 -0.008
Cabrera M 0.318 0.396 0.551 0.947 0.322 0.407 0.529 0.936 -0.011
Ramirez M 0.304 0.402 0.581 0.983 0.299 0.407 0.564 0.971 -0.012
Hafner T 0.296 0.410 0.567 0.976 0.290 0.404 0.557 0.961 -0.016
Kent J 0.293 0.371 0.507 0.878 0.288 0.380 0.478 0.859 -0.019
Holliday M 0.319 0.380 0.556 0.935 0.313 0.375 0.535 0.910 -0.025
Tejada M 0.311 0.362 0.501 0.862 0.299 0.359 0.473 0.832 -0.030
Soriano A 0.280 0.331 0.529 0.859 0.274 0.338 0.490 0.828 -0.031
Bay J 0.281 0.373 0.514 0.888 0.268 0.367 0.489 0.856 -0.032
Alou M 0.311 0.375 0.544 0.919 0.295 0.361 0.516 0.877 -0.042
Totals 0.296 0.384 0.533 0.917 0.299 0.395 0.535 0.930 0.013
As I also said last year, this is not intended to be any sort of serious analysis of “clutch performance” (hence the article title).
Mike Emeigh
Posted: September 17, 2008 at 09:11 PM | 11 comment(s)
Related News: Sabermetrics
|
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
I didn't adjust for intentional walks in this table. Most IBB come in high-LI situations (duh) and most of them that aren't to #8 hitters go to guys like this.
I have seasonal numbers at home. I'll try to post some of those later today.
-- MWE
The Cabrera listed above is Miguel, not Melky :)
-- MWE
Wouldn't it be more acurate to say something like: "The players at the top of the list are the ones whose performance increased the most from their overall performance etc."
Nitpicking a bit, but it just strikes me that for example ARod actually performed better in high-LI situations than say Paul Konerko. But because ARod is so much better overall, the difference isn't as big...
Yes, it would. When I write quickly I'm not always as precise as I should be - that's why I don't like to write quickly :) No one should be asserting that a player is "more valuable" simply because he's at the top of THIS scale.
Some more notes:
The typical performance difference for ALL hitters is an 8-point OPS improvement, all in OBP. When I weed out non-regular players (anyone with less than 250 PA), the difference actually goes DOWN a point (also in OBP).
Pujols had by far the largest increase in ISO (33 points).
Bonds: .303/.519/.644/1.163 unweighted (missing the PA criterion), .321/.577/.671/1.248 weighted, 85-point OPS gain. Bonds's ISO increase would have been 10th overall had he qualified - which is pretty amazing for a guy who you'd have to think teams were trying to KEEP from hitting for power.
Mauer: .313/.394/.459/.853 unweighted (missing the PA criterion), .291/.399/.435/.834 weighted, 19-point OPS decline.
Morneau: .278/.342/.505/.847 unweighted (missing the OPS cutoff), .286/.352/.516/.868 weighted, 21-point OPS gain.
ARod by season, 2004-2007: 32-point gain, 29-point decline, 68-point decline, 122-point gain.
Ortiz by season, 2004-2007: 5-point decline, 128-point gain, 66-point gain, 20-point decline.
Delgado by season, 2004-2007: 33-point gain, 141-point gain, 24-point gain, 72-point gain.
Pujols by season, 2004-2007: 40-point gain, 51-point decline, 194-point gain (speaking of being robbed of the MVP: .805 weighted SLG!), 58-point gain. FWIW, Howard's been good here as well, +55 through 2007. He has been +31 and +51 in his two full seasons and was +72 in his 2005 half-season.
-- MWE
Jeter: +23,+23,+97,-10
-- MWE
Jeter: .343/.417/.483
ARod: .290/.392/.523
NY Yankees, 2006, LI-weighted:
Jeter: .372/.463/.533
ARod: .271/.377/.469
AL MVP vote, 2006:
2. Jeter, 12 first-place votes, 306 points, 0.78 award shares
13. ARod, 0 first-place votes, 13 points, 0.03 award shares
-- MWE
That's a very unfair picture to paint (if you are, as it seems, implying the 'clutch'ness had to do with the award voting). Jeter had a GENERALLY better year, it wasn't just just leverage. Jeter had arguably the best year of his career, finally getting slightly above league average defense and having a 10.6 WARP1 year. ARod, in as close to a 'down' year as ARod has, generated only 6.8 WARP1. Jeter finished higher because the Jeter had a better year, positionally adjusted, than ARod. Of course Morneau won, which rather kills any credit the voters might have gotten. His own teammate Joe Mauer was way better (and Jeter better than both).
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main