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   1. TomH Posted: September 18, 2008 at 10:59 AM (#2946008)
I am surprised that the overall mean of LI-weighted OPS is higher than unweighted by 13 pts. I would think that of high lev spots, some would be in closer or good set-up man situations (and use of R-vs-R & L-vs-L matchups against the big boppers). However, since most of the gain is in OBP as opposed to SLG, maybe there's extra caution at work since many of these guys are great hitters. And there is a small tendency to hit better ith men on, which makes for higher LI spots.
   2. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 18, 2008 at 12:28 PM (#2946047)
I am surprised that the overall mean of LI-weighted OPS is higher than unweighted by 13 pts.


I didn't adjust for intentional walks in this table. Most IBB come in high-LI situations (duh) and most of them that aren't to #8 hitters go to guys like this.

I have seasonal numbers at home. I'll try to post some of those later today.

-- MWE
   3. zenbitz Posted: September 18, 2008 at 04:02 PM (#2946333)
Hey, there are no Giants on this list!
   4. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 18, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#2946338)
That's because Barry didn't reach 250 PA in all four seasons, which was my criterion for inclusion. I'll dig up his numbers tonight.

The Cabrera listed above is Miguel, not Melky :)

-- MWE
   5. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: September 18, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#2946412)
Mike, can you also dig up Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. I know they both missed the cutoff in 2004, but still...
   6. Steve Threadair Posted: September 18, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#2946420)
Delgado obviously got robbed the past 4 years. Let's hope the MVP voters get it right this time around!
   7. Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer Posted: September 18, 2008 at 08:29 PM (#2946711)
Your OPSDiff column is in my sidebar -.-

The players at the top of the list are those whose performance in high-LI situations was excellent; the ones at the bottom are those who did not perform well in high-LI situations.


Wouldn't it be more acurate to say something like: "The players at the top of the list are the ones whose performance increased the most from their overall performance etc."

Nitpicking a bit, but it just strikes me that for example ARod actually performed better in high-LI situations than say Paul Konerko. But because ARod is so much better overall, the difference isn't as big...
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 19, 2008 at 12:01 AM (#2946989)
Wouldn't it be more acurate to say something like: "The players at the top of the list are the ones whose performance increased the most from their overall performance etc."


Yes, it would. When I write quickly I'm not always as precise as I should be - that's why I don't like to write quickly :) No one should be asserting that a player is "more valuable" simply because he's at the top of THIS scale.

Some more notes:

The typical performance difference for ALL hitters is an 8-point OPS improvement, all in OBP. When I weed out non-regular players (anyone with less than 250 PA), the difference actually goes DOWN a point (also in OBP).

Pujols had by far the largest increase in ISO (33 points).

Bonds: .303/.519/.644/1.163 unweighted (missing the PA criterion), .321/.577/.671/1.248 weighted, 85-point OPS gain. Bonds's ISO increase would have been 10th overall had he qualified - which is pretty amazing for a guy who you'd have to think teams were trying to KEEP from hitting for power.

Mauer: .313/.394/.459/.853 unweighted (missing the PA criterion), .291/.399/.435/.834 weighted, 19-point OPS decline.

Morneau: .278/.342/.505/.847 unweighted (missing the OPS cutoff), .286/.352/.516/.868 weighted, 21-point OPS gain.

ARod by season, 2004-2007: 32-point gain, 29-point decline, 68-point decline, 122-point gain.

Ortiz by season, 2004-2007: 5-point decline, 128-point gain, 66-point gain, 20-point decline.

Delgado by season, 2004-2007: 33-point gain, 141-point gain, 24-point gain, 72-point gain.

Pujols by season, 2004-2007: 40-point gain, 51-point decline, 194-point gain (speaking of being robbed of the MVP: .805 weighted SLG!), 58-point gain. FWIW, Howard's been good here as well, +55 through 2007. He has been +31 and +51 in his two full seasons and was +72 in his 2005 half-season.

-- MWE
   9. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 19, 2008 at 12:03 AM (#2946990)
Oh yeah:

Jeter: +23,+23,+97,-10

-- MWE
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 19, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#2947033)
NY Yankees, 2006, unweighted:

Jeter: .343/.417/.483
ARod: .290/.392/.523

NY Yankees, 2006, LI-weighted:

Jeter: .372/.463/.533
ARod: .271/.377/.469

AL MVP vote, 2006:

2. Jeter, 12 first-place votes, 306 points, 0.78 award shares
13. ARod, 0 first-place votes, 13 points, 0.03 award shares

-- MWE
   11. stax Posted: September 24, 2008 at 01:22 AM (#2952326)
NY Yankees, 2006, unweighted:

Jeter: .343/.417/.483
ARod: .290/.392/.523

NY Yankees, 2006, LI-weighted:

Jeter: .372/.463/.533
ARod: .271/.377/.469

AL MVP vote, 2006:

2. Jeter, 12 first-place votes, 306 points, 0.78 award shares
13. ARod, 0 first-place votes, 13 points, 0.03 award shares

-- MWE


That's a very unfair picture to paint (if you are, as it seems, implying the 'clutch'ness had to do with the award voting). Jeter had a GENERALLY better year, it wasn't just just leverage. Jeter had arguably the best year of his career, finally getting slightly above league average defense and having a 10.6 WARP1 year. ARod, in as close to a 'down' year as ARod has, generated only 6.8 WARP1. Jeter finished higher because the Jeter had a better year, positionally adjusted, than ARod. Of course Morneau won, which rather kills any credit the voters might have gotten. His own teammate Joe Mauer was way better (and Jeter better than both).
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