Gross Wins Above Average, 2006 Update
Well, it's January once more. The time of year when, as the weather grows colder, the thoughts of even the most hard-hearted among us turn to one thing: mostly pointless, vaguely self-indulgent baseball stats calculated out to several decimal places in order to give an illusory impression of precision. Naturally, I'm being facetious: every time of the year is a time when people's thoughts turn to mostly pointless, vaguely self-indulgent baseball stats calculated out to several decimal places in order to give an illusory impression of precision.
But winter is also the time when these stats get applied to Hall of Fame debates. As such, I thought it was time to bring out an update to the Gross Wins Above Average (GWAA) stat I introduced in this article in April. Though the full methodology and reasoning behind the stat can be found in the link, basically GWAA (nee NWAA) involves calculating the RCAP (Runs Created Above Position) for hitters and RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) for pitchers for each season in a player's career, converting this to wins above and below average, and then only counting the above-average seasons. I think this gives a better picture of a player's total value, peak and career, than average- or replacement-level based stats. There are a few problems with the stats used, most notably that, while they adjust for position, they don't include defense, as I have little faith in defensive stats from before the last few years, but I still think the results are worth taking a look at.
For my last article, I only had the stats available to calculate RCAP back to 1972. Fortunately, thanks to Baseball Prospectus and Retrosheet, I now have the data going back to 1957. There are thirty-eight Hall of Famers who either debuted in 1957 or later, or had no more than 130 AB or 50 IP prior to 1957. Here are the GWAA scores for each:
name gwaa
Joe Morgan 70.17
Mike Schmidt 54.08
George Brett 53.89
Tom Seaver 52.71
Rod Carew 50.29
Reggie Jackson 49.68
Bob Gibson 48.68
Wade Boggs 47.59
Willie McCovey 47.16
Robin Yount 43.62
Steve Carlton 42.88
Paul Molitor 41.97
Willie Stargell 41.63
Jim Palmer 40.27
Gaylord Perry 40.18
Carl Yastrzemski 38.44
Phil Niekro 38.14
Eddie Murray 36.79
Johnny Bench 36.44
Carlton Fisk 35.66
Dave Winfield 35.39
Juan Marichal 33.42
Fergie Jenkins 31.78
Ryne Sandberg 30.69
Orlando Cepeda 30.29
Nolan Ryan 29.31
Kirby Puckett 28.45
Gary Carter 26.71
Billy Williams 26.40
Dennis Eckersley 26.13
Don Sutton 25.05
Tony Perez 23.83
Brooks Robinson 21.38
Catfish Hunter 18.50
Ozzie Smith 17.35
Rollie Fingers 15.91
Bruce Sutter 14.13
Lou Brock 10.69
Joe Morgan really should never have invented this stat.
Now, let's compare the thirty-eight Hall-eligible players in the post-1957 group with the highest GWAA scores, to see who might have been the most qualified candidates to fill those slots while keeping the overall size of the Hall the same. Non-Hall of Famers are in italics:
Joe Morgan 70.17
Mike Schmidt 54.08
George Brett 53.89
Tom Seaver 52.71
Rod Carew 50.29
Reggie Jackson 49.68
Bob Gibson 48.68
Dick Allen 48.12
Wade Boggs 47.59
Willie McCovey 47.16
Robin Yount 43.62
Steve Carlton 42.88
Paul Molitor 41.97
Bert Blyleven 41.64
Willie Stargell 41.63
Jim Palmer 40.27
Gaylord Perry 40.18
Carl Yastrzemski 38.44
Joe Torre 38.26
Phil Niekro 38.14
Ted Simmons 37.15
Eddie Murray 36.79
Johnny Bench 36.44
Carlton Fisk 35.66
Dave Winfield 35.39
Alan Trammell 33.97
Albert Belle 33.91
Juan Marichal 33.42
Lou Whitaker 33.22
Bobby Grich 32.75
Fergie Jenkins 31.78
Ryne Sandberg 30.69
Orlando Cepeda 30.29
Ron Santo 30.15
Frank Howard 29.72
Nolan Ryan 29.31
Reggie Smith 29.16
Pedro Guerrero 28.73
The Guerrero bar lives! In the previous article, Pedro Guerrero had the fourteenth-highest GWAA score among Hall-eligible players debuting since 1972, a class that included fourteen Hall of Famers. He also has the thirty-eighth highest score among eligible players debuting since 1957, a class that includes thirty-eight Hall of Famers. While in actuality, Guerrero's poor defense would probably knock him out of Hall of Fame consideration, I think this result provides further justification for 28-29 GWAA being a reasonable place to set the borderline for deserving Hall of Famers. (Incidentally, at one point when I was collecting the data, it looked like Reggie Smith would end up ranking as the lowest-scoring player ahead of the borderline. Too bad it didn't work out that way--we could have been talking about players surpassing "the Reggie bar.")
One modification I've considered making to the stat would be, for players traded during a season who were above average with one team but below average with another, to only count their above-average stint, in the spirit of only considering a player's positive contributions. For most players, this would make little if any difference, but the sole exception is Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno's career GWAA score is 27.70, which puts him just shy of the Guerrero line, but this includes a score of 0.31 wins above average in 1985. That season, Cedeno was 1.75 wins below average with the Reds, but after being traded to the Cardinals, he was worth 2.06 wins above average (in only 82 PAs) the rest of the way. If we only include his stint with St. Louis, his career score jumps to 29.45, above the borderline.
Our third table is a list of all players, eligible and otherwise, in the post-1957 group above the Guerrero bar. My apologies for presenting some of these players' information in three straight tables, but I think it helps to see how active players stack up against the greats of the past. Hall of Famers are asterisked, players active in 2006 are in bold:
Barry Bonds 123.16
Roger Clemens 71.82
Joe Morgan* 70.17
Greg Maddux 62.61
Mike Piazza 61.07
Frank Thomas 56.38
Alex Rodriguez 55.00
Mike Schmidt* 54.08
George Brett* 53.89
Rickey Henderson 53.43
Tom Seaver* 52.71
Ken Griffey Jr. 52.69
Manny Ramirez 51.96
Randy Johnson 51.65
Gary Sheffield 51.40
Edgar Martinez 50.81
Rod Carew* 50.29
Reggie Jackson* 49.68
Bob Gibson* 48.68
Dick Allen 48.12
Jeff Bagwell 48.12
Wade Boggs* 47.59
Willie McCovey* 47.16
Pedro Martinez 46.91
Barry Larkin 46.58
Cal Ripken Jr. 45.39
Tony Gwynn 44.93
Mark McGwire 44.01
Robin Yount* 43.62
Steve Carlton* 42.88
Paul Molitor* 41.97
Bert Blyleven 41.64
Willie Stargell* 41.63
Chipper Jones 40.78
Jim Palmer* 40.27
Gaylord Perry* 40.18
Pete Rose 39.72
Craig Biggio 39.67
Tom Glavine 38.76
Carl Yastrzemski* 38.44
Joe Torre 38.26
Phil Niekro* 38.14
Jim Edmonds 37.42
Ted Simmons 37.15
Roberto Alomar 36.93
Jim Thome 36.84
Eddie Murray* 36.79
Johnny Bench* 36.44
Kevin Brown 36.41
Albert Pujols 36.13
Jeff Kent 35.83
Carlton Fisk* 35.66
Derek Jeter 35.63
Tim Raines 35.54
Dave Winfield* 35.39
Bernie Williams 35.18
Larry Walker 34.90
Vladimir Guerrero 34.49
Jason Giambi 34.29
Alan Trammell 33.97
Albert Belle 33.91
Curt Schilling 33.68
John Smoltz 33.43
Juan Marichal* 33.42
Lou Whitaker 33.22
Bobby Grich 32.75
Ivan Rodriguez 31.87
Fergie Jenkins* 31.78
Fred McGriff 31.28
Mike Mussina 31.17
Brian Giles 30.75
Sammy Sosa 30.70
Ryne Sandberg* 30.69
Orlando Cepeda* 30.29
Ron Santo 30.15
Frank Howard 29.72
Nolan Ryan* 29.31
Reggie Smith 29.16
Pedro Guerrero 28.73
Unfortunately (at least for the purposes of making this an interesting article), not a single active player moved past the borderline in 2006. The top active player below the line remains Nomar Garciaparra, with a GWAA of 27.44, but that last step is going to be a doozy--with his move to first base, it's going to be much more difficult for him to put up an above-average RCAP.
Here are all the active players below the Guerrero bar with a GWAA greater than 20--a couple young players with a good shot at the Hall, and some older ones who are going to end their careers just shy:
Nomar Garciaparra 27.44
Bobby Abreu 25.86
Julio Franco 25.41
Todd Helton 24.33
Scott Rolen 24.02
Carlos Delgado 24.01
Moises Alou 23.66
Lance Berkman 23.55
Mariano Rivera 21.87
Jorge Posada 20.87
Finally, one last table, the one that's most relevant to the timing of this article: all the players on the 2007 Hall of Fame ballot. In some ways, this is the most interesting list of all--it's fun to see the scores of some of the players who will never get a single Hall vote:
Cal Ripken Jr. 45.39
Tony Gwynn 44.93
Mark McGwire 44.01
Bert Blyleven 41.64
Alan Trammell 33.97
Albert Belle 33.91
Tommy John 28.04
Jim Rice 25.76
Bret Saberhagen 25.21
Dale Murphy 24.98
Andre Dawson 24.80
Bobby Bonilla 24.53
Harold Baines 24.50
Jose Canseco 24.29
Orel Hershiser 24.03
Eric Davis 22.87
Rich Gossage 22.62
Dave Concepcion 21.63
Dave Parker 20.94
Ken Caminiti 20.48
Don Mattingly 19.87
Tony Fernandez 17.23
Jack Morris 17.14
Paul O'Neill 16.69
Steve Garvey 14.52
Lee Smith 14.20
Jay Buhner 9.73
Wally Joyner 6.56
Scott Brosius 5.35
Devon White 4.52
Dante Bichette 3.13
Bobby Witt 2.45
Isn't it nice to have those nasty Hall of Fame debates completely resolved once and for all?
Daniel Wind
Posted: January 04, 2007 at 10:16 PM |
19 comment(s)
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Done and done. Except this doesn't include defense or baserunning does it?
Just wanted to make sure everyone understands the massive level of sarcasm in the quoted statement. Fake arrogance can be a little hard to distinguish from the real thing on the Internet...
zero credit for below average seasons with the bat RELATIVE to position.
It's also interesting that people still use RCAP, when Lee disavowed it a year or two ago. Of course, it's also interesting that he still publishes it.
Probably a good idea, but overall your writing was of high quality; anybody intelligent would've seen it for what it was, at least.
I would have to agree with MHS, though, in that I'm not sure of the value of this stat. It's the sorta-total of goodness of a guy in his + years, if I interpret correctly, but I think I could do the same with OPS+, and I wouldn't.
I didn't want to get too much into the purpose of the stat here, since I tried to address that in the previous article and this is really just an update. But, as I said there, I think using this system (with the proper stats) does a better job of balancing a player's peak and career value than an average or replacement-level one. Other systems like JAWS have attempted to do that, but they use a rather arbitrary slice of a player's career to represent his peak. I would say that this might well be the reason that Mr. Ballgame in #2 says that it seems to show a more common-sense listing of players. The example I used in my previous article was Eddie Murray vs. Rafael Palmeiro: I think most people would say that Murray was the significantly superior player, even without delving into the steroid issue, but few average- or replacement-based stats are going to show much difference between them, either because they don't put enough weight on Murray's peak or because they discount his numbers for the bad years at the end of his career.
I tried to follow your link, and it just took me to the article you posted yesterday, and it wasn't readily obvious how to get to the original article.
Whoa, that's not right. Here's the correct link.
I also think it is pretty crazy that Albert Pujols is a no brainer HOF in this system even if he gets hit by a bus today.
As soon as I saw that, I thought "If Albert Pujols is hit by a bus today, he'd be Albert Belle", and that's fairly true in this system. Really, though, 5 years as the best or second-best hitter hitter in the league should get you some HOF consideration.
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