An Early Look at Possible First-time NL All-Stars

Forget for a moment that it's way too early to pick this year's All-Star teams. It's fun to jump the gun, so I'm ready to leap right in. I'd like to get a handle on which players who have never before made an All-Star team are the most likely to break through this season, based mostly on who has gotten off to the hottest start at each position.

Like most All-Star voters, I heavily weight how a player has performed from the start of a season up to the end of the voting. Is that fair? Perhaps not. But who cares... it's just an exhibition game. I also, like most voters, give some weight to players who play for my team (the A's). But I'm not crazy in this regard. I'm therefore unlikely to give Ramon Hernandez, .204/.241/.287, my vote for AL catcher.

Today I will go over the National League candidates. Tomorrow, I will address the American League.

In the Senior Circuit, not only does it appear that there are a large number of good candidates, but it looks like about 10 players on the 2002 team will be first-timers. Here are the best NL break through candidates for each position:

Catcher - Michael Barret (MON), .348/.398/.591. Barrett leads all starting NL catchers in Runs Created, Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage; Barrett is tied for the lead (with Paul Lo Duca) for most Hits. LoDuca(LAD), .308/.375/.438, and Damian Miller (ARI), .263/.349/.518, are two other possibilities at this spot. I suspect that Mike Piazza (NYM), .254/.333/.500, will be voted in by the fans. So if Bob Brenly goes with 3 catchers, I have a feeling that LoDuca will miss the cut.

First Base - No one really stands out as a first-timer, here. Todd Helton and Jeff Bagwell are the likely All-Stars at this position. However, Richie Sexson (MIL), .258/.295/.546, and Derrek Lee (FLA), .245/.335/.497, both stand an outside chance of breaking through. Lee gets some extra credit because I saw him play in high school.

Second Base - Junior Spivey (ARI), .331/.415/.563, has really emerged. He was rather old (26) for a Rookie last year, so it wasn't unreasonable to think his ceiling was not all that high. But he's gotten off to a great start and will very likely be an All-Star. Luis Castillo (FLA), .303/.372/.355, is the only other possibility here.

Third Base - There will probably be two first-time All-Stars at this spot on the NL team. Mike Lowell (FLA), .337/.384/.576, and Scott Rolen (PHI), .256/.356/.470, are more deserving than any others who are veterans of All-Star games gone by, so far at least.

Shortstop - Infamous for his 185 strike outs in 2001, Jose Hernandez (MIL), .273/.354/.540, who is now on pace to whiff 202 times this year, stands a good chance of making his first All-Star team (which will be played in his home park, by the way). Juan Uribe (COL), .282/.344/.388, is off to a nice start, but unless Brenly goes with three shortstops, Uribe, whose OPS is .073 higher at Coors than on the road, will probably be watching the game on TV.

Outfield - It's unlikely that any first-time All-Stars will make the NL outfield in 2002. However, JD Drew (STL), .291/.362/.475, and Danny Bautista (ARI), .340/.384/.524, are reasonable possibilities. Depending on how things go over the next six weeks, the two young Reds, Adam Dunn, .257/.414/.514, and Austin Kearns, .372/.505/.628, may become candidates. (Kearns, by the way, may be giving Kaz Ishii a run for his Yen as the Rookie of the Year in the NL. Was Kearns on anyone's list as a favorite for the ROY?)

Starting Pitchers - The best bets look to be Odalis Perez (LAD), 4-2, 2.00 ERA, Kirk Rueter (SFG), 6-1, 2.51 ERA, Kazuhisa Ishii, (LAD), 6-1, 2.70 ERA, Roy Oswalt (HOU), 5-2, 2.32 ERA, Josh Fogg (PIT), 5-1, 2.36 ERA, and Pedro Astacio (NYM), 6-2, 2.49 ERA.

Relief Pitchers - The most likely first-timer is Mike Williams (PIT), 15 Saves, 0.55 ERA. Eric Gagne, 14 Saves, 1.17 ERA, is probably deserving (now) over Trevor Hoffman; however, the Padres will likely get Hoffman as that club's lone All-Star. So my guess is that Gagne may missout. Danny Graves (CIN), 14 Saves, 2.70 ERA, stands a chance, depending on how many relievers are picked. It wouldn't surprise me also if Brenly goes with his closer, Byung-Hyun Kim, who has 12 Saves in 13 chances with a 1.38 ERA.

Tomorrow, I will run down the Junior Circuit.