if you had posted this last wednesday or so, i would have chortled and said ha the reds are coming to earth and we are destroying our enemies and driving their women before us, hearing their lamentations ... unfortunately, reality has set in and it looks a lot like what you described. getting punked by the cubs twice last weekend and then getting hammered by the mets yesterday has me tied up in knots all over again.
i'm not holding my breath over the suppan project. i wish they'd get serious and grab somebody like oswalt or something.
thanks for the comments, even if they did seem a little ... repetitive in parts. ;-)

First off, I want to thank the editor here for going to some serious trouble to get this thing posted at all. He has nothing to apologize for. I'm sure you all have had email problems, too. I know perfectly well that I have. DS has been as helpful as he possibly could have been. If there's any blame to be had, aim it at me, not him.

As for the above comment, yes, things looked good last Wednesday. But a few games when your team is hot and the other is down is not a full-year indicator. The Reds have looked dangerous to me since March, because I realized that they had THAT kind of lineup - the kind where your corner outfielders are not among your first four hitters. That's always dangerous. It's what has driven the Phillies' offense these last two years. The Reds have been for real since the start of the season. The Cardinals have more talent on board, absent health problems, but the Reds are dangerous. You can use this info yourself every year. If a team has a first four that contains no corner outfielders, they are dangerous if they have even mediocre pitching.

I apologize for the repetition. This essay was first drafted in early May, when I was still sick, but also still trying to get it out as a preseason. I've updated it, but repetition always creeps in when you're doing that instead of a full rewrite. Sorry. - Brock

The first 9 paragraphs are repeated right after in paragraphs 10-18. Can someone with editing power update that? I think that's what #1 meant about repititive.

yes, spivey, that's what i was referring to. it has been fixed, i believe.

and i did say it was a good little essay. thanks, brock.

Re Ryan, BBRef has his BABIP at 226, with an line drive rate of 17%, compared to 332 and 20% last year. His struggles are probably due hitting the ball at people. Though, he appears to be hitting the ball in the air more, and also popping it up more.

Nice article.

St. Louis missed a chance to clinch by not getting Haren or Oswalt. Their 4/5 starters are probably the biggest weakness of either team.

You know, I saw Jeff Suppan's second start in the majors for the Red Sox in 1995. He wasn't that good, and the Sox lost 8-7 (game score of 12). I didn't think he'd stick around that long in the majors. But ############, he turned out to be a bit better than average during his prime, and he's made $58 million dollars since then. Lucky bastard.

Thanks for this, Brock.

I'd really like to pick up Jake Westbrook before the deadline. Shouldn't cost too much in terms of prospects, and he's the kind of veteran sinkerballer that Duncan seems to work well with. He's nothing great, but he's certainly better than Suppan/Hawksworth.

Also, I've been pretty impressed by the bullpen this season (at least from the right side), especially with Motte's development. They've blown up on a couple of occasions (that Rockies game and in second game of the recent Mets series, for instance), but overall they've exceeded my pre-season expectations.

I am totally with you guys regarding the need for a pitcher. Brad Penny looks like he's done for the year, although Kyle Lohse looks good right now. Info from the media was that Dan Haren was too expensive and not having a good enough year to gamble on him for the second half. Roy Oswalt actually made it public that he wanted to go to the Cardinals. However, the Astros were equally adamant that they were not going to trade their Big Name Asset within the division, so Roy went elsewhere. That's annoying to me as a Cardinal fan, but I have to respect the logic. I watched what Whitey Herzog got when he traded Keith Hernandez within the division and then the Mets went on to win a World Series. Teams are really reluctant to trade where they will get their noses rubbed in it if the trade doesn't work. Westbrook sounds as good as anyone left to me, but it's Dave Duncan who looks at tape after tape and identifies the guy he thinks he can turn around. I have no idea how he does that, although a lot of it seems to be looking for a guy who throws a rising 4-seam fastball and then teaching him to throw the sinking two-seamer to get groundouts.

BTW, the thing I thought most dicey in the essay is my original analysis of having two different types of backup for Colby Rasmus. It was a weird plan. I know that Randy Winn has essentially solved the problem, but the "Mather for one game, but Jay for a DL trip" concept was new to me. No one's commented on that one yet. What did you think of the center field backup situation when the season opened? I'd like to know, because it's a new thing to me, - Brock

A quick note on the Ryan Ludwick trade. It's been panned in the STL press, but they're forgetting something. They're just looking at that one big year he had 2 seasons ago. They've forgotten that he's 32 years old and has had only one full, non-injured season in his career. The Cards weren't trading Ludwick for Westbrook. They were trading Ludwick's scary injury history and his arbitration eligibility for the rental of Westbrook plus the inside track on signing him in the offseason, plus opening a position for John Jay to play. And besides, the Astros would not trade Roy Oswalt within the division. Also, as I said in the essay above. you can always find a corner outfielder who can hit if Jay suddenly collapses.

I should also mention that the STL newspaper came up with the info that, as of now, the Cards have almost the exact same offensive performance as they had last year at this time. It's very very close. Now, true, the Cards responded to last year's offense at this time by getting Matt Holliday. However, it's also true that offense is down all around baseball. Having the same numbers as last year means that your offense is actually better. - Brock

one thing i've noticed about fan reaction in stl is that they really grouse about these kinds of changes ... well, i guess most folks do that. it just seems like the tenor of it in stl is a little whiny.

'i'd rather trade him a year too early than a year too late'

all will be forgiven if we can shake off the reds and capture the flag.

Well, I hate to tell you "I told you so," but the Reds just picked up that corner outfielder who can hit. Actually, the player in question being Jim Edmonds, it's more like "that right fielder who can also still play some center." So, OK. NOW the pennant chase is officially interesting. - Brock