Yeah, but put him in the NL, and you've got ERAs in the mid 3s, along with 220IP. That's a Cy Young contender.

Zito's going to get the new Mike Hampton contract. Its just like 2001, Hampton got more total money and per year than a better pitcher (Mussina). Zito will do the same compared to Oswalt.

I just have a very bad feeling that he's going to fall off the cliff, hard,
sometime in the next two years.

If Zito signs for under nine figures, it will be because he takes a hometown discount. I think 6/100 is on the low end of possible contracts.

That's a good set of comps. Excluding guys who got hurt (Mizell, Alvarez, Broglio) or who hadn't shown any durability at all as a SP by age 28 (Ojeda) here is what those guys did in their age 29-33 seasons (ERA+/league IP rank if top 10)

Finley

101
144/6
113/1
112/9
118/7

Viola

106/2nd MLB
141/1
092/7
123
149

Glavine

137/6
147/5
142/5
171/10
105/5

Rush

117/6
118/8
088
103/swingman
148/swingman

Darling

084/swingman
087
108
081
098

Palmer

169/2
130/1
130/1
143/1
122

So, if Zito stays healthy, and these comps are predictive, a team that signs him for the next five years can expect 1 season leading the league in IP, 2 more in the top 10, 1.5 seasons with an ERA+ above 140, and 0.5 Cy Young awards. Glavine and Palmer were outstanding, Darling sucked, and Finley, Viola, and Rush were reliably above average, with flashes of brilliance. That seems about right, and worth paying for.

Oh, how we'll miss you, Old Reliable®.

Oswalt is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Zito is good, but he's not an elite pitcher anymore. His rate stats are going in the wrong direction. In the NL, he could shave enough off his ERA to drop below 4.00 at the beginning of his contract, but he's not a long-term #1. There is certainly good value in effective and durable #2/#3 pitchers, though. Lots of value. Just not Oswalt value. Of course, he signed before he hit the market. On the open market, he would command much more than Zito. But he's not, and Zito is. So Zito has value to teams. Oswalt has none.

This is without question a strong seller's market, so he'll likely get $17m/season. And like the author (who did a nice job, incidently) indicated, that's what he's worth. He's just on the market at the right time. Good for him. If teams can afford it, and lots of teams can, he'll be a great addition.

The real quesiton here is....

How do you get a nickname like "Vinegar Bend?"

How cool is that?

He was from Vinegar Bend, Alabama.

He was from Vinegar Bend, Alabama.

Technically, he was from Leakesville, MS; he just took Vinegar Bend's name because it was slightly bigger.

And Mizell was in Congress from '69 to '75.

All things considered, Zito makes sense for the Mets, although of course much depends on the money. I checked and he's the only pitcher in baseball to throw 200 innings with an ERA+ equal or better than the league more than four years running (he's done it 6 times, although add two thirds of an inning and Maddux would have done it 19). That kind of rotation anchor doesn't need to be a #1 starter to be worth a lot of money these days.

although add two thirds of an inning and Maddux would have done it 19

Compounding the tragedy -- and I don't think that's too strong a word -- he got pulled from his playoff tuneup after five innings even though he wasn't scheduled to pitch for another week.

Technically, he was from Leakesville, MS; he just took Vinegar Bend's name because it was slightly bigger.

Plus "Leakesville Mizell" just doesn't have the same ring.

See, it wasn’t too long ago (this past August) when Oswalt, 29 years old, signed a five year, $73 million contract extension with the Houston Astros before he was to hit the open market this off season.

He couldn't have been a free agent until after the 2007 season.

Zito not only gets a ton of outs through the air, he also gets a high percentage of his air outs through infield flies. The league average is 10% of flyouts are infield flies, but Zito's career percentage (2002-2006, which is all FanGraphs has) is 16.2%. So if Zito allowed the typical 10%, he'd have allowed 90 more OF flies over those 5 years. I don't know the run value of an outfield fly versus an infield fly, but it seems like that would be significant. I'd like to see his home/road splits on these.

Zito also has a better HR/FB ratio than the league (8.6% versus 12%). Zito averages about 290 FB per season, which means he'd allow about 10 HR more per season with an average HR/FB rate.

Neither of these have anything to do with defense, so the question of how much they're affected by park and how projectable they are into the future determines a good amount of Zito's value.

I think his style (the percentages of batted ball types) is helped by the foul ground in oakland considerably. Whether or not he pitches differently at home vs the road to adjust for this I don't know. I think he's a pretty smart pitcher and could probably adjust to a new home park, he's been consistent so long proves he is resilient and can make adjustments.

I think I need to say adjust one more time to make my point seem more real.

But, while Zito definitely has some innate ability to produce such low BABIP against numbers, it is important to note that over his career

Flyball pitchers in general have lower BABIP numbers. Groundballs are more likely to be hits than flyballs. (Making up for that, flyballs are more likely to be extra base hits).

the Oakland A's (since 2001) have a mean team BABIP against of .289--meaning Zito has always pitched in front of some top-notch defenses. Essentially, the A's defense made a pitcher who was very good at inducing bad contact, great.

The park also plays a role. In could be he's good at inducing bad contact, but it could just be all the flyballs.

But, for those looking for somebody to take stress off of the rest of their rotation, and bullpen, Zito will do just that; and pitch effectively while doing so. And in today's market, that is worth $17 million a year for five years.

Lately I've been saying that primates have been underestimating what a player is worth on the current market. Even still, I have a lot of trouble wrapping my brain around the notion that a solid if unspectacular innings eater is worth that much.

The number one team that comes to mind is the New York Mets.

One other factor to take into account: Rick Peterson. From what I've read Barry Zito was Peterson's biggest fan in Oakland. He certainly had his most success under Peterson's wing.

Peole upthread are prorating his ERA+ for an NL shift. Fair enough as the NL is the clearly inferior league. However, along I feel obliged to note the top four team OPS+s in the league last year were all in the NL East. OK, he wouldn't have to face the Mets' lineup obviously, but that still leaves Atlanta (110 OPS+), Philly (107), and Florida (105). Even Washington came in at 101. The division averaged an OPS+ of about 106. In the era of unbalanced schedule, there might not be as much of an AL-to-NL prorating going on for a Mets-bound Zito as there normally would be.

Zito and the Mets appear to be such a good match, and Boras seems to be steering him that-a-way. Who are the serious competitors for his services anyway? LA and San Diego are geographically attractive to him, TX may go all Hicks again, and the Yanks could be playing possum. Would the Cubbies have enough money?

Am I the only one that gets a feeling that 2007 Barry Zito is going to go to the NL and look like 2005 Mark Mulder and 2005 Tim Hudson in terms of ERA+? Decent #2 starter, but not an ace. Because that's really what he is, as the author here astutely points out. That's not worth $17 million a year, but someone's going to give it to him.

In the era of unbalanced schedule, there might not be as much of an AL-to-NL prorating going on for a Mets-bound Zito as there normally would be.

And, by the way, have you noticed whom the Mets are scheduled to play in interleague games next season? It's a nice little run through the 2006 AL play-offs: the Yankees, A's, Tigers, and Twins. No breaks there, certainly.

It's a nice little run through the 2006 AL play-offs: the Yankees, A's, Tigers, and Twins.

Is this right? I thought we always played the Yanks, then teams from the same division.

Is this right? I thought we always played the Yanks, then teams from the same division.

It's right:

NYY: May 18-20, June 15-17
Det: June 8-10
Minn: June 18-20
Oak: June 22-24

What is this the NFL? At least one of those teams won't repeat, but still, that's not really a fair schedule.

Yankees, A's, Tigers, and Twins. No breaks there, certainly.

I count three. Only one of those teams has a good offense.

Only one of those teams has a good offense.

The Tigers were fifth in the AL in runs last year, and have now added Sheffield. That's not a good offense? What standard are you applying, pray tell?

"Only one of those teams has a good offense."

Nonsense, the Twins have the most valuable player in the league. At any time he decides, he can just pick up the Twins and carry them off to victory.

he wouldn't have to face the Mets' lineup obviously, but that still leaves Atlanta (110 OPS+), Philly (107), and Florida (105). Even Washington came in at 101. The division averaged an OPS+ of about 106.

Any historical #s on this? How common is it for every team in the division to be above average offensively?

How do the Mets get the A’s when the NL East is playing the AL Central this year? It doesn’t matter what those teams offenses are, they’re all better teams than the Royals, who the rest of the division is playing.

Stupid interleague. Grumble grumble.

What standard are you applying, pray tell?

There was a rather large gap between their components and their runs scored; they were ninth in the AL in EqA and eighth in EqR. They're also old. As things currently stand, they appear to have one starting position player under 30.

If you're willing to believe Gary Sheffield will be the same hitter at 38 that he was at 36 after having suffered a catastrophic injury in the interim, more power to you. Considering what a big fan you are of "trends" in data, I'm surprised you'd be expecting much from him irrespective of his health.

If you're willing to believe Gary Sheffield will be the same hitter at 38 that he was at 36 after having suffered a catastrophic injury in the interim, more power to you. Considering what a big fan you are of "trends" in data, I'm surprised you'd be expecting much from him irrespective of his health.

Sheffield doesn't have to be the same hitter at 38 he was at 36 to be a damn fine hitter. He'll certainly help the Tigers be at least a "good offense." As will a full season of Casey at the bat.

Rather than getting hung up on is Zito worth $17 million I think a better question would be how many marginal wins is he worth?

Because 5 marginal wins to Tampa Bay or KC are worth a very different amount than 5 marginal wins to Toronto, Detroit, Boston, etc.

How do the Mets get the A’s when the NL East is playing the AL Central this year?

That's a bit odd, because the Mets *could* have had the Royals at home while the A's played at Milwaukee (which would also have been part of the normal IL rotation). Instead, the Brewers get the Royals. It could be a scheduling consideration; the Royals play in St. Louis, go to Milwaukee and then to Anaheim, while the As play the Mets, go to Cleveland and then back to New York for the Yankees.

-- MWE