Oh let the sun beat down upon my face, stars to fill my dream
I am a starter for the Devil Rays, but previously for the Mets
I sit with Lou and Zim of the gentler age, whom this world has seldom seen
They talk of days for which they sit and wait and all will be revealed

Wow, Scott Kazmir got traded? The Mets must have gotten at least Aubrey Huff...

Diaz. I'll revise the list.

I didn't realize BJ Upton lost his prospect status. Mr. Sickels, I assume you've seen BJ play; I wonder if you've also seen his younger brother Justin Upton. How do the two of them compare? And do you think either one of them (or both) will remain at SS down the road, or if both of them will have to move (BJ to 3B, Justin to CF)? Thanks.

Yeah, I don't count B.J. as a prospect anymore. I'm definitely in love with his bat.

I have not seen Justin, but a front-office type I spoke with last month about the draft says that Justin is even better at the same stage than B.J. which is high praise indeed.

"Mr. Sickels" is my father. I am John.

Thank you, John.

As a "prospect junkie" (mostly follow the NL teams though), I loved your columns at ESPN. And I want to applaud you for putting the effort into creating the minorleagueball.com website. It's quickly become one of my top "to visit" sites in the morning.

I asked about Justin because, as a Dbacks fan (one of the very few Dbacks fans who post here), I hope AZ goes with Upton in the June draft. If he's as good as BJ (whom I've seen on TV a couple of times), he'll be a player the Dbacks could use.

Welcome to the site, John. I, like levski, am somewhat of a "prospect junkie" myself and I'm really excited about your new website. I haven't posted much there, but I certainly will when the Mets' coverage kicks in.

BTW, if you don't mind, I was wondering what do you think of Petit's pitchability? How would it rank when compared to the pitchability of other top pitching prospects?

Thanks for the kind words. The ESPN thing did not end the way I wanted it to, but I'm hopeful that in the long run things will end up being better than they were.

And I want to applaud you for putting the effort into creating the minorleagueball.com website.

Propers from me as well, Mr. Sic...er.. John, for producing the new site. I appreciate your work and look forward to visiting the site often in the future.

Just saying thanks.

How cool would it be for Beane to trade Byrnes to the Pirates for a couple of warm bodies, pick up Diaz as a NRI, and then watch Diaz outhit Byrnes (and Bautista of course) as the A's semi-regular leftfielder in 2005? Gotta love a sequence of roster moves that simultaneously shows the disparity in aptitude between a well-run sabremetric organization and two clueless ones.

A Thomas/Diaz platoon in left with Swisher in right and Kielty picking up 150-225 PA around the outfield would give the A's a lot of bang-for-the-buck (Kielty would be the only one making over the minimum, at $850k for 2005).

(Insert Sickels praise and appreciation here)

I'm really looking forward to seeing the Yankees list.

Don't get too excited....there isn't alot there. :)

On BJ Upton...

Does that guy have the sweetest swing ever for a teenager? The guy has no wasted movement at all. It's all hips and drive and suddenly he's crushing the ball 450 feet. It's like he's barely even putting effort into it, and yet, he finds the ball with his bat zips it somewhere.

After seeing this guy a bit last year, I have to say that he's the most exciting baseball prospect I've seen in a long time. Never saw ARod right when he came up with the Mariners, but watching Upton fills in the blanks a little bit.

Sweetest swing ever for a teenager? Who does he compete with, Mel Ott? Ignore that part - make it, 'Does that BJ Upton have a sweet swing or what?'

I asked about Justin because, as a Dbacks fan (one of the very few Dbacks fans who post here), I hope AZ goes with Upton in the June draft. If he's as good as BJ (whom I've seen on TV a couple of times), he'll be a player the Dbacks could use.

Given that Rizzo drafted Santos there is no way he passes on Upton.

And isn't it swell that he gets to spend another season or two in AAA while Alex Gonzalez sucks the oxygen out of Tropicana Field this year?

Why not move Lugo to third and let him figure things out defensively at the major league level? His bat is clearly ready for the majors. On the other hand, you have to be sensitive to the service time concern, but he's clearly ready offensively. I guess that I'm agnostic on not playing him in the majors to start 2005. At least they're giving him another shot to show that he can handle short, which is encouraging. But knowing the D-Rays, I know they're going to find a way to screw up his development at some point in the near future.

Fantasy question here: When does Upton come up to stay? It it a service time thing where they'll bring him up to stay in May or June, or will he spend most of the year at AAA.

John--

Don't know if you saw the thread here about your last column. If not, there was a fairly large outpouring of admiration for your work. You're greatly appreciated in these parts.

I saw the tread, and it did make me feel very appreciated. Thanks, everyone.

Fantasy question here: When does Upton come up to stay? It it a service time thing where they'll bring him up to stay in May or June, or will he spend most of the year at AAA.

With the D-Rays, who the hell knows? This is a team that gives the utterly mediocre Bautista a guaranteed deal for $2M a month ago and then release a superior player (Diaz) with a bit of upside because they ran out of room on the 40man roster. And then sign the suckier Gonzalez to play third... Its hard enough figuring out what a team should do; when they're utterly incompetent, its damn near impossible.

IMHO Upton might get between 150-550 PA in the majors this year, all depending not on Upton's progress at ST/AAA, but rather dictated upon what sergeant stripe patterns Chuck LaMar finds on his boxers each morning and perceives as a cosmic communication from the great GM in the sky.

Diaz isn't superior.

Like 643 said, he could be up any time. But if they stay devoted to him at short, it could after the all-star break. Lugo is decent enough that it buys the Rays time for BJ to work on that defense. On the other hand, they may get awfully impatient after watching Gonzalez and Alomar in April. It's absurd to think of those two with a starting job with Cantu and Upton on the bench/AAA.

I'd say Diaz is superior to Bautista (clearly a minority opinion). This is largely predicated on my faith in Diaz's defensive ability exceeding that of seemingly any other party.

It won't be particularly difficult for Diaz to be better than Bautista.

IMHO Upton might get between 150-550 PA in the majors this year, all depending not on Upton's progress at ST/AAA, but rather dictated upon what sergeant stripe patterns Chuck LaMar finds on his boxers each morning and perceives as a cosmic communication from the great GM in the sky.

When it comes to Upton's perceived readiness by the DRO, and to some extent the decision to sign Bautista, Alomar, and Gonzalez, you're seeing a lot of Lou Piniella's influence, not just Lamar's idiocy.

When it comes to Upton's perceived readiness by the DRO, and to some extent the decision to sign Bautista, Alomar, and Gonzalez, you're seeing a lot of Lou Piniella's influence, not just Lamar's idiocy.

Lou's never broken in a young 20 year-old phenom at SS.

Upton did struggle after a good start with Tampa - over his last 33 games he hit just .221/.276/.363 - and he did have a 3:1 K/BB ratio during his two months in the bigs. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to allow him additional development time in AAA.

-- MWE

I honestly don't know what to make of Cantu. I don't think he's nearly as good as his Durham numbers suggest - in fact, I think that Durham's Fenway-like configuration and prevailing winds that blow out to right-center most of the time distort how we perceive guys like Cantu and Matt Diaz. In 2 1/2 years at Orlando, Cantu didn't do squat. He did OK in his first exposure to the bigs, but I would be extremely cautious about guys who suddenly do well when they hit the DBAP.

-- MWE

No doubt about Upton - he could use more time. But Cantu - it's important to note that he was awfully young in his first two years in Orlando. And we saw a power spike at age 22 - not an extraordianry happenstance. Some of that is due to the park effects, but he showed plenty of gap power with the Rays. I see the doubles rate staying constant with not as many homers.

When I said Diaz was superior, it was in comparison to Bautista, not Byrnes (although he's not far behind).

Here's PECOTA and ZIPS for the three (BA/OBP/SLG):

Yeah, that $2M for Bautista certainly was money well spent. [/sarcasm]

Anyone else get the impression that THT might write a story about the Devil Rays in 20 years similar to that one they wrote about the Mays/McCovey/Cepeda Giants?

Will THT exist in 20 years?

in fact, I think that Durham's Fenway-like configuration and prevailing winds that blow out to right-center most of the time distort how we perceive guys like Cantu and Matt Diaz.

Diaz has had huge home/road splits in Durham...

'04 AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .379 264 49 100 28 4 13 64 13 40 11
Road .280 239 32 67 19 1 8 29 13 56 4
'03 AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .394 94 18 37 7 2 3 22 7 16 2
Road .282 124 10 35 7 1 4 17 6 22 3

While Cantu ... not so much:
'04 AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .301 183 31 55 16 0 13 47 10 34 2
Road .303 185 26 56 17 1 9 33 6 30 1
'03 AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .280 75 8 21 4 0 1 10 3 7 1
Road .264 91 9 24 9 1 2 17 3 13 1

FWIW, as a regular attendee of Durham games - Diaz looks good at the plate. Not real patient, but he makes consistent hard contact. Of course, that kind of performance at home will make a believer out of you. As for Cantu, he almost literally didn't look like the same guy in '04 as '03 (when I derisively called him "can't-do") - I have very little faith in my ability to determine what his true level of ability is at this time.

Just for kicks, here's Diaz's h/r differentials with Orlando...
03ORL AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .408 125 17 51 10 0 2 25 6 13 7
Road .353 102 15 36 11 0 3 16 13 11 2
02ORL AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .243 218 35 53 9 0 6 24 18 37 11
Road .303 231 36 70 19 1 4 26 16 35 20

Hey,
Where do you get minor league splits DK-sar?

The BPro folks (along with PECOTA) are talking about Jonny Gomes as a big sleeper (.265/.369/.501 equivs). John has him rated as a C prospect and the DRays front office doesn't appear to know who he is. What's wrong with him? Should the Pirates trade for him if Huff is untouchable?

Upton performing well in the big leagues is necessary for him to maximize his worth as a big F-U to Littlefield for me to catcall Littlefield about the next time I'm in Pittsburgh. I'll be there in late April, look for my signs during the homestand. I'll have several.

How about the 800 or so home runs Cantu hit this winter?

The BPro folks (along with PECOTA) are talking about Jonny Gomes as a big sleeper (.265/.369/.501 equivs). John has him rated as a C prospect and the DRays front office doesn't appear to know who he is.

I think Gomes is in the same situation as Diaz - the Durham park makes him very difficult to evaluate just by the stats.

-- MWE

CNNSI has them, but you've got to dig around a little - hard-coding the year in the URL, things like that. Before '04 they had L/R - that was nice.

Here's Gomes in '04 (now there's a guy who had a good winter):
04DUR AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB
Home .250 192 35 48 14 1 12 39 28 65 3
Road .263 198 38 52 13 0 14 39 23 71 5

I do not like Gomes in the field - he appeared to have trouble tracking the ball of the bat from time to time and has a minus arm. He's not Kevin Reimer or anything, but his ceiling with the glove would be to be average in left. More of a flyball hitter - he's got a long swing but obvious pop.