Great analysis.

I think I've read that King Felix also has a plus-plus slider that the Mariners want him to avoid throwing until he's in a less dangerous age range for injuries.

Watching last night, it looked like the main breaking pitch he offered was a very good 1-to-7 curve. If this guy has yet another nasty pitch, he could be godlike.

Actually, that analysis says more than Seth thinks it does.

It's outstanding and gives great insight into how the pitcher is working the opposing lineup.

This analysis is exactly what would get Seth a job with a team (although I am sure they do this), so proper interpretation of this data is the key.

I think this can also show something about the way a pitcher is handled by the coaching staff and catcher.

When Felix pitched against Detroit, the announcers said that several times, batters walked away with a "what was THAT?" expression on their face.

You could see it last night, too.

Looks like a great outing. The only potential "worry" that I see there is whether the big drop in fastballs and increase in change-ups late in the game was deliberate and strategic or was it because he was starting to tire out a little.

It would be interesting to compare this to, say, Pedro at different stages of his career. Or early Gooden. Not that I'm expecting anyone to do that.

From the game story on MLB.com:

Hernandez became the first teenager to win a start since Jose Rijo won a game for the Reds in September 1984 -- the same year Dwight Gooden took the National League by storm with the Mets.

Huh? Rijo pitched for the Yankees, not the Reds, in 1984. The Reds had no teenage pitchers that year, much less one who won a game.

Moreover, Rijo did not win a game in September for anyone. His two wins came on May 10 (a 16 inning, 7-6 win over Cleveland) and June 23 (an 11 inning, 5-4 win over Baltimore). Rijo was the only teenaged Yankee pitcher that year.

Other teen-aged pitchers in 1984:

Saberhagen pitched a week that year as a 19 year old before he turned 20 on April 11, but he didn't win a game until April 19th.

Gooden. He got his 17th and final win on September 23 (my birthday!).

As far as I can tell, if the last teen-ager to win a major league game did it in 1984, it had to have been Dwight Gooden on 9/23/84.

The only potential "worry" that I see there is whether the big drop in fastballs and increase in change-ups late in the game was deliberate and strategic or was it because he was starting to tire out a little.


I thought that a good changeup required equivalent effort to a fastball - that it's the grip, not the arm action, that's different.

I admit that the last time I pitched a baseball competitively, I was 15 and only pretended to have a changeup to go along with my "fastball", so I will immediately defer to the knowledgable.

From watching the game, he started throwing the changeup just to show the batters another look their third time through the order. His fastball was still humming along but he suddenly showed off an extra pitch and cruised through another few innings.

I feel like Will, that he strategically added more changes the third time through.

I also feel like many Mariners fans who look at the plethora of arm injuries that pitchers in the Seattle org have suffered and cross their fingers that the Mariners won't screw up the King as well.

He didn't have a 2-0 count the entire game. The 6 fastballs and 2 curves thrown at a 1-0 count all went for strikes.

Hot damn.

He seemed to imply that some of the curveballs looked different from one another. Was Felix intentionally adjusting the delivery of the pitch (more/less lateral movement), or were they two differnt pitches like a 12-6 curve and a slurve?

BTW, this was a very interesting piece. I hope Stohs continues this type of analysis.

Is it possible for a player to win the Rookie of the Year award in back-to-back seasons?

Let's assume the following:

King Felix throws 49.2IP before the Mariners decide to rest him for the winter when he bumps his elbow against the door on the way to the dugout.

In that time, he goes 6-1. He also throws a perfect game, and another game where he strikes out 21 batters. Plus he catches a baby that falls from the stands. It's too much for the writers to ignore, so they give him the ROY award for 2005.

Technically, he is still short of the 50IP. Would he be eligible to win the award again in 2006?

Bell, looks like your doing a nice job of keeping your expectations in check :)

Bell, looks like your doing a nice job of keeping your expectations in check :)

Well, I don't want to be silly, after all. :)
I had to come up with some reason to give an award to a guy with less than 50IP, and I figure he'd have to do some pretty miraculous stuff to get over the IP problem.

That said, I picked him up in a trade at the end of last season when I was dumping some players, so I'm whole-heartedly cheering him on.

Bell, looks like your doing a nice job of keeping your expectations in check :)

Yeah, I mean it's really too much to expect him to risk his arm by catching a baby that falls from the stands.

Great analysis.

He didn't have a 2-0 count the entire game.

Amazing. No 3-1 counts either. And if my quick addition was right, he was behind in the count in only 14/91 situations. I don't have any data-driven basis of comparison, but that strikes me as phenomenal.

Sunday is Lackey v. Hernandez.

Slider v. Curve.

His changeup is delivered with the same veracity of his fastball

Does this mean they're equally deceptive pitches?

Is it possible for a player to win the Rookie of the Year award in back-to-back seasons?

I remember this talk when the Mets called up Gregg Jeffries back in September of 1988. He played so well, there were some who thought that he should be the 1988 ROTY and then still be eligible for the 1989 ROTY.

Will, thanks for the link and kind words. Thanks everyone for the comments.
I do have to report that I had used a similar template as I had done last year once when I analyzed a Johan Santana start in which he had 14 strikeouts. Hernandez did have a 2-0 count and a 3-1 count. Not many, but I did miss those in this. They have since been added.
As for the "veracity" of Hernandez's motion on his changeup. I really didn't notice anything different in his delivery, release or anything. The pitch just came in slower and dropped straight down a little as well. It almost had the look of a split finger.
I was fully impressed by Hernandez, regardless of the fact that it was done against the Twins offense. he could be very good.

Seth, excellent work and kudos to Will for the link.

Very good read.

One thing I noticed from the writeup (and the game last night) is that while there was great separation between the fastball (~95) and the change (~82) there wasn't much separation between the change and breaking ball both of which were in the low 80s.

I guess this is a sign of how good Hernandez may be, but I immediately thought about the kinds of separation that Pedro and Johan Santana also get between their changeups and breaking balls.

In his otherworldly prime Pedro had the fastball at 95, the curve at 77 and the change at 82. Over 10 mph difference between fastball/change, but also a 5 mph difference between change/breaking ball.

I double checked Seth's writeup of Santana and he also had the same difference although Santan throws his slider at ~82 and his change at ~77.

So perhaps one thing for Herandez to work on as he tries to make the leap into "best pitcher in baseball" conversations is a little more separation between his curve and changeup velocities.

If you've got the time the Radke and Santana writeups are interesting too imo.

Seth,
I read the Santana piece before I posted.

I specifically looked to see if there was a standard pattern of less fastballs more changes.

It's a very good piece as well. I noticed that Santana didn't throw more changeups later. The question then becomes whether or not Santana altered his pitches via hitter.

philly,
those are excellent observations.

Thanks again Seth for the research, and you should consider doing that as a research project for SABR.

As a Cardinals fan, 2 points to make:

1) When I saw the headline about phenom making debut last night, I assumed the article would be about Anthony Reyes

2) Speaking of teenagers with wins in majors, I thought Rick Ankiel was one, but it turns out he was 20 when he went 11-7 for a division winning Cardinals team. I believe the rest of his story should be a cautionary tale before electing Felix to the HOF.

3) Speaking of Ankiel, he was quietly promoted to AA last week, actually earning the promotion with some reasonable power hitting.

2) Speaking of teenagers with wins in majors, I thought Rick Ankiel was one, but it turns out he was 20 when he went 11-7 for a division winning Cardinals team. I believe the rest of his story should be a cautionary tale before electing Felix to the HOF.

I was thinking about Edwin Jackson, but I see his debut win over the unit happened on his 20th birthday. Another cautionary tale there.

Not a single fastball below 94, and the majority of them were 96 or 97. That is awesome. Ervin Santana has reached 97, but he doesn't throw as consistently hard as Felix. I don't think Harden does either, although this is only one game. Maybe only AJ Burnett has a better fastball among starters.

I'm surprised he threw so many strikes. His domination of the PCL proved that he's one tough mutha to hit, but he did walk 48 guys there in 88 innings. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep that control up.

On the subject of teenaged pitchers, it turns out the last teenager to win an MLB game was Ed Correa. Correa won two MLB games before turning 20, one the last day of the 1985 season, and the second on April 14, 1986. Correa turned 20 on April 29 of that year.

From Retrosheet

Ed Correa...the Button Briggs of the 20th Century.