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Tuesday, August 30, 2005

American Red Cross

Baseball is of secondary importance tonight as we await landfall of Katarina.  Workers from the American Red Cross and other charities are sending thousands of volunteers to help with the impending emergency along the Gulf Coast.  We’re already in one of the worst case scenario and we could be looking at hundreds of thousands, if not more, people who need long-term shelter after this storm.  I’ve already given $250 today and I hope everyone that reads this can donate something, even if it’s the minimum $5 donation or a few units of blood.

Dan Szymborski Posted: August 30, 2005 at 12:17 PM | 5801 comment(s)
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   1. MM1f Posted: August 28, 2005 at 05:53 PM (#1580441)
Serious question (though it might not sound that way):

Why are blood donations needed in a hurricaine. I mean im sure their will be some injurys caused by itthat cause big time blood loss but id guess that it wouldnt be all that many especially when compared to all of the other ways to get hurt kill in a hurricaine.
is it that their is concern the existing blood banks will be flooded so theyll need new blood for normal uses after Katrina or is it something else?

sorry if its a stupid question, i know as little about medicine as Joe Morgan does about the title page of Moneyball
   2. MM1f Posted: August 28, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1580448)
GAH...i made some 2nd grade level ####### up there....

I meant "im sure THERE will be...."
and "is it that THERE is..."
oh and i meant "injuries"
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 05:56 PM (#1580451)
Why are blood donations needed in a hurricaine.

Well, Red Cross always needs blood and if you don't have money, it doesn't hurt to give blood!
   4. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 05:59 PM (#1580460)
is it that their is concern the existing blood banks will be flooded so theyll need new blood for normal uses after Katrina or is it something else?

I'd guess a combination of concern over damage to the samples (or inability to get to them if the whole city is underwater) and the possibility of mass casualties requiring more blood than is available.

If the storm continues to strengthenand strikes New Orleans in the wrong place, we could be talking about a city that's almost completely uninhabitable for weeks. They need everything they can get their hands on, and blood would be at the top of the list.
   5. Bhaakon Posted: August 28, 2005 at 06:54 PM (#1580513)
I wouldn't be at all suprised if a large portion of New Orleans has to be abandon in my lifetime. Maybe even after this storm.
   6. Will Young Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:05 PM (#1580533)
Thankfully, my girlfriend's family and their closest friends (i.e. friends that I know) have completely evacuated the town. Man this is going to suck...
   7. Johnny Chimpo Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:33 PM (#1580555)
Christ, I almost did my PhD work at LSU...
   8. Craig in MN Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:33 PM (#1580556)
I would guess that request for blood serves (at least) three purposes:
1. Makes blood available to people in affected area.
2. Allows the rest of the Red Cross to focus resources on helping people in the affected area, rather than focussing on keeping normal blood supplies up in the rest of the country.
3. Scares/manipulates people into helping. Blood means injury and danger and makes the tragedy seem a little more real to those who aren't involved. I bet they get a lot more money when they request 'money or blood' than if they just request 'money'. Clever marketing (plus they need the blood anyway).
   9. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:35 PM (#1580559)
I am watching the coverage on TV and this is just unbelievable.
   10. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:43 PM (#1580566)
I am watching the coverage on TV and this is just unbelievable.

You look at the radar, and it's hard to comprehend just how big this storm is. But the hurricane force winds are going to reach land maybe 9-10 hours ahead of the eye. That's just phenomenal.

If it makes the projected turn north later tonight, New Orleans is a goner. The only hope is for it to keep slipping off to the northwest.
   11. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:49 PM (#1580571)
And oil prices are devastating rising as we speak. Not the biggest of concerns right now, but this storm will have lasting effects on the entire nation.
   12. dahlian Kirby, children's author extraordinaire. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:51 PM (#1580572)
I just graduated from the University of New Orleans. Last year when Ivan came me and my friends evacuated to Lafayette and once we saw that it was going to miss we watched a National Geographic special on extreme weather. The tape had a simulation of what would happen if New Orleans ever got a direct hit, from the destruction of the levees (which have already sunk 8 feet since their construction) to the filling of the fish bowl. Little did we realize that it would be less than a year before those frightening events became a possibility. I'm just glad that everyone I know has evacuated, and would ask everyone to be as generous as can be. This has the potential to be one a disaster of epic proportions.
   13. Hey, it's what Johan uses (Matt) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 07:54 PM (#1580578)
And oil prices are devastating rising as we speak.

Devastingly, yeah.
   14. pv nasby Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:01 PM (#1580585)
Can't get it right the first few times?
You're gonna be a perfect SU man, my boy.

Oh, and please give lots of blood, platelets if you can, plasma also. All good stuff, no matter what's going on in the world.
   15. Wayward Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:01 PM (#1580586)
Katrina cutting slightly west is actually worse for NOLA. The storm surge and rain are worse on the east side of a hurricane.

I am concerned about using the Superdome as a refuge. I don't know why, but I don't have a good feeling about that.

Gas prices are going to get brutal. The pipelines that supply crude to the Midwest originate in Louisiana. With damage or a power outage for some time, the refineries up north will shut down or severly cut back. Even tapping the SPR will be worthless if you can't move the crude.
   16. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:14 PM (#1580600)
The networks were creaming themselves over previous storms, making absurd comparisons to Andrew and playing up relatively minor damage as unprecedented and earthshattering. Now they're presented with what they'd been hoping for, and they're swallowing their own tongues.
   17. Dave Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:29 PM (#1580626)
I'll echo Dan's encouragement to contribute to the Red Cross. I didn't appreciate how serious this was until I read the following on the National Weather Service website:


EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
   18. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:36 PM (#1580634)
I am concerned about using the Superdome as a refuge. I don't know why, but I don't have a good feeling about that.

Flipping through the news channels, one of the LA Senators was on (MSNBC, maybe? I was doing the quick shuffle).

She was asked about the safety of the Superdome as a shelter, and she dodged the question. Didn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

Great. This better not be a real-life Irwin Allen film in the making.
   19. MM1f Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:36 PM (#1580635)
im just now appreciating how beastly this storm is...and i blame it on the media becuase for awhile theyd play up every cat 2 as armageddeons precursor thatd id instinctively underrate any storm they told me about

so whatre the odds this one outdoes cammile?
and whatre the odds new orleans turns into atlantis?

and for the record I DONT mean whatre the odds as in "lets bet on this"
   20. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:38 PM (#1580636)
cnnVideo('play','/video/us/2005/08/28/zarrella.worst.case.cnn');]This CNN feature outlines the worst-case scenario for the city in a hurricane.

Its going to be incredibly brutal. If, God forbid, the structure of the Superdome (one of the city's major storm shelters) fails during the storm, the causalities could be unbelievable.
   21. Urban Faber Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:41 PM (#1580640)
I don't think anybody knows about the Superdome's safety level, or anything else in town for that matter, in something like this. Let's just hope it works out as well as it possibly can.

And the networks and meteorologists were definitely playing this one down in Florida, it's only a category 1, don't even worry about it. I think they pissed Katrina off.
   22. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:42 PM (#1580643)
If the people who designed the SuperDome are still alive, they gotta end up hitting the booze/pills pretty hard everytime a hurricane gets near and people get herded into the SuperDome....
   23. MM1f Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:43 PM (#1580644)
where else in NO would you put folks? at least the superdome is huge and concrete
   24. dahlian Kirby, children's author extraordinaire. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:51 PM (#1580656)
at least the superdome is huge and concrete

And at least it was built to withstand up to 200 mph winds. Unfortunately you also have to worry about the people in the Superdome, from a human perspective. Once before when they used it as a shelter people looted the place, tore up seats etc.

When the highest place in a city is Monkey Hill, a jungle jim of sorts in Audobon Park, you know that they're aren't any other options.
   25. MM1f Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:56 PM (#1580663)
"And at least it was built to withstand up to 200 mph winds."

Was that serious or sarcastic?
   26. Severiano Flitcraft Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1580668)
IIRC from goings on this spring, the LA legislature cut a deal with Benson and agreed to funding of improvement to the Superdome but none of the work will have started much less been completed. They wanted to get corporate sponsoship, naming rights, but the problem is that almost no, maybe one or two, major US businesses are headquartered there, and the demographics are very poor compared to most other NFL cities.
   27. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1580669)
The biggest threat with the Superdome isn't whether or not its walls can withstand the 165mph winds (they almost certainly will), its whether the roof can withstand the wind plus 15-20 inches of rain. If water is allowed to build in any serious amount along the structure of the dome, the results could be unbelievably catastrophic.
   28. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:00 PM (#1580674)
where else in NO would you put folks? at least the superdome is huge and concrete

It's just worrisome to have 20,000 (according to the estimates I heard) people concentrated all in one place, especially when there seems to be a lack of confidence among some officials that it's up for the task.
   29. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:01 PM (#1580680)
and the demographics are very poor compared to most other NFL cities.

Few minutes ago one of the news channels said about 33% of the population lives below the poverty level.
   30. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:07 PM (#1580686)
Few minutes ago one of the news channels said about 33% of the population lives below the poverty level.

I'd be willing to bet that the rate is comparable to many (if not most) US cities.
   31. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:08 PM (#1580690)
I am concerned about using the Superdome as a refuge. I don't know why, but I don't have a good feeling about that.

That's funny, I was watching the coverage tonight and had the same thought. It sounds like it was built to withstand something like this, but as with "earthquake proof" structures in California it can be hard to be completely accurate until the storm actually hits and you know if your calculations were right or wrong.
   32. Severiano Flitcraft Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:15 PM (#1580698)
I admit that I find hurricanes incredibly fascinating. I used to volunteer to go board up houses on the Jersey shore and I would house sit during storms for my friends whose families had places at the beach. When I was in college we even drove down Atlantic City to sit one out and watch the waves whip up onto the boardwalk. Very cool, but definitely not a Cat 4 or 5 storm.
   33. Bob T Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:18 PM (#1580702)
Building codes in New Orleans (from what I could find quickly online) state that structures must be able to withstand winds of 110-120 mph.

But that's for regular structures. The Superdome might be subject to different regulations, but I would think that the State government wouldn't use the Superdome as an evacuation center unless they were fairly certain that it could survive a Category 5 storm.
   34. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1580715)
Bob, you seem to be putting a good deal of faith in the idea that an old public building is (or ever was built) up to code. If it was your family, would you feel safe and secure sitting in the Superdome knowing that the fiercest storm to ever hit the city was raging right outside?
   35. Wayward Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1580717)
The Dome may have been built for the wind force involved. But, it was built in Louisiana and, sorry to say, a lot of construction there seems to cut corners. And it was built some time ago and I don't know what shape it is in today structurally.

My other concern there is flooding. It sits on Poydras street, which I think it somewhat "high ground". But a 25 foot surge might flodd lower levels and is that good with 20,000 people in there?

I also don't know about some of the older oil platforms in the Gulf. I would not be surprised to see some just rip apart.
   36. MM1f Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1580722)
How well the Superdome is sutied isnt the issue...the issue is: is there any better place?

id rather be in the dome, if i coudlnt evacuate, than my house/apt
   37. Jose Clutch (Replacement Level Poster) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1580723)
As tragic as it is, I've never understood why people with means to not do so choose to live in areas subject to devastating natural disasters. Where I live we have mild natural disasters, but there hasn't been a natural disaster that killed 100 people here in over 200 years.

There was a hurricane 50 some year ago that killed 58 people, I believe. My grandmother remembers it and has told me about it. I think that's the worst we've had in 100 years.
   38. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1580725)
But a 25 foot surge might flodd lower levels and is that good with 20,000 people in there?

From what they were saying, there won't be anyone down on the field level. All the people in there will be restricted to staying up in the stands. It sounds like they fully expect the field to be flooded.
   39. Wayward Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:32 PM (#1580726)
You know, I have made a lot of disparaging comments about New Orleans in the past, some of them here. I had my usual flight scheduled tomorrow morning to Louisiana and I was in my usual bad mood about having to go there. But, I would not wish this upon anyone. In general, I have a very bad feeling about this one.
   40. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:32 PM (#1580728)
I would think that the State government wouldn't use the Superdome as an evacuation center unless they were fairly certain that it could survive a Category 5 storm.
Not so fast, my friend.
Last year, in Florida, emergency officials believed the civic center in Arcadia (DeSoto County) could stand up to hurricane-force winds for use as a shelter.
They were wrong.
   41. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:34 PM (#1580730)
What is the roof of that dome made from?
   42. Wayward Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:35 PM (#1580731)
"It sounds like they fully expect the field to be flooded. "

I worry about panic. I would freak if I were in that concrete tomb and water started coming in. But Me is right - was there a better choice?
   43. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:36 PM (#1580735)
Stainless steel IIRC.
   44. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:38 PM (#1580739)
Wikipedia knows all:
The Superdome is built to withstand catastrophes; the roof is built to stand up to 200 MPH wind and even deep flood water wouldn't reach the second level 35 feet from the ground.

But there have been problems...
It has thus been used as an emergency shelter but is not designed for the task; in 1998 during Hurricane Georges problems included looting and supplying 14,000 people with necessities.
   45. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:39 PM (#1580741)
was there a better choice?

Like I have posted in other places the Navy sortied its ships out of Pascagoula 2 days ago. Kessler AFB was evacuated starting Saturday. The brunt of the blame for the deaths should be placed squarely on the NWS and the government on NOLA and LA.
   46. You can't lose with Randy Winn, says Flynn Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:40 PM (#1580744)

Was that serious or sarcastic?


Serious. The Superdome is a regular feature of architectural school books as a example of what man can build. If you have to stay in Nawlins for this (and why in God's name would you?) then the Superdome is about as good as it possibly can get for a place to stay.

I'd be willing to bet that the rate is comparable to many (if not most) US cities.

It's much, much higher, in fact. Nawlins is a top 3 city for poverty and child poverty in the United States.
   47. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:48 PM (#1580762)
The brunt of the blame for the deaths should be placed squarely on the NWS and the government on NOLA and LA.

One of the LA senators was saying earlier today (Landriuex? Landrieu?) that this was a case of media overplaying a story. Obviously, by the evening, she had changed her tune.

Considering the mayor's apparant reluctance to issue an evac order, I wonder if the NOAA fire-and-brimstone bulletin was an attempt to get the local authorities off their duffs.

Whatever happens, we get to look forward to the blame game and spinning afterwards.
   48. Shalimar Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:50 PM (#1580766)
My other concern there is flooding. It sits on Poydras street, which I think it somewhat "high ground". But a 25 foot surge might flodd lower levels and is that good with 20,000 people in there?

They are expecting the lower levels including the field to flood, so the people will most likely be crammed into the higher-level seating. It doesn't sound like a comfortable experience, and they will be locked in at least until Tuesday. I wouldn't want to be there, but for the most part we are talking about people who can't afford to leave, and there is no place in the New Orleans area that is potentially safer. Hopefully they will be okay.

It won't get much better after it's over. The estimates I saw said New Orleans could remain flooded for up to 6 months.
   49. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:55 PM (#1580784)
I'm sure this makes me part of the problem rather than part of the solution, but I just went and gassed up my car despite having three-quarters of a tank remaining.
I wouldn't surprise me to be paying $3-plus per gallon soon.
   50. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 09:58 PM (#1580791)
Considering the damage figures we're talking about, if the biggest damage is caused by looting of the Superdome, we should be unbelievably happy.

What can save New Orleans at this point? Even an eyewall replacement cycle only puts this at what, 130 at best? There's nothing that can really turn this sucker before landfall.
   51. Shalimar Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:02 PM (#1580806)
It would surprise me if gas isn't $3+ by the middle of September. Louisiana is a major refinery state. If the refineries there are down for a few weeks, gasoline supplies would decrease dramatically, especially in the south.
   52. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:03 PM (#1580813)
After this happens, would traveling down to volunteer for cleanup be more of a hassle for the locals than a help?
   53. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:04 PM (#1580816)
What can save New Orleans at this point? Even an eyewall replacement cycle only puts this at what, 130 at best? There's nothing that can really turn this sucker before landfall.

If the storm deviates -just- enough to the east so that NO remains outside of the western eyewall, that would probably save the city, although there would still be substantial damage (flooding).

The two things to look for right now are:

1) How far west is the eye when it starts its DUE NORTH movement? Once it starts heading north, its not turning back west.

2) Does the storm turn NNE before landfall?


Depending on if/when the above two things occur, NO may still be ok. Frankly, Pascagoula/Gulfport is in alot more trouble.


An EWC doesn't seem likely at this point; however, dry-air entrainment, which may or may not be happening this evening, could trim a little of the oomph from the storm. Unfortunately, the baseball equivalent of this would be going from a 2001 Barry Bonds to a 2005 Albert Pujols, so its sort of an academic point.


I've just merged my two passions: baseball and weather/climate. Now I can die in peace.
   54. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:04 PM (#1580817)
What can save New Orleans at this point? Even an eyewall replacement cycle only puts this at what, 130 at best? There's nothing that can really turn this sucker before landfall.

If it starts to drift back east, such that the eye passes east of N.O., that would be a huge help (but would suck for Biloxi and points east). But it doesn't look likely. It really looks like the eye is going to pass right over the city.
   55. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1580818)
One of the LA senators was saying earlier today that this was a case of media overplaying a story.
You've heard of "weather porn?"
This is a weather snuff film.
   56. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1580821)
Few minutes ago one of the news channels said about 33% of the population lives below the poverty level.

That could be devastating if the storm surge reaches the poverty level.
   57. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:06 PM (#1580822)
It also should be pointed out that the pressures with this storm are VERY low, so reintensification of the winds remains a distinct possibility. Weakening/steady-state until landfall is not a foregone conclusion, although its certainly the most probable.
   58. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:09 PM (#1580829)
f it starts to drift back east, such that the eye passes east of N.O., that would be a huge help (but would suck for Biloxi and points east). But it doesn't look likely. It really looks like the eye is going to pass right over the city.

Not necessarily true, and something the media has gotten wrong at times today. The winds are always stronger on the eastern side of a northward moving storm. BUT, the flooding situation in NO is such that if Katrina passed just to the EAST, NO would be spared from the worst of the winds, but would actually experience much greater flooding.
   59. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:10 PM (#1580834)
It would surprise me if gas wasn't $3 by the middle of this week - the market was already hysterical.
   60. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:14 PM (#1580840)
Good point. If the storm passes to the east the Lake will be pushed South directly on to NO.
   61. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1580842)

Not necessarily true, and something the media has gotten wrong at times today. The winds are always stronger on the eastern side of a northward moving storm. BUT, the flooding situation in NO is such that if Katrina passed just to the EAST, NO would be spared from the worst of the winds, but would actually experience much greater flooding.


Yeah, New Orleans is terribly placed for this type of thing. Too bad they didn't have Civilization in 18th century France - it would have been placed elsewhere so you don't get all those nasty swamp squares.
   62. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1580843)
I predict $3 gas somewhre in the country by tomorrow afternoon.
   63. Shalimar Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1580844)
What can save New Orleans at this point?

A miracle? A storm surge over 15 feet would flood the city. There doesn't appear to be much hope with a 28 foot surge expected tomorrow morning. Pensacola is expecting a 12 foot surge, almost 200 miles away.
   64. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1580845)
So how soon until Pat Robertson or someone of his ilk gets on a national television to proclaim this a modern day S&G;?
   65. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:18 PM (#1580853)
Yeah, New Orleans is terribly placed for this type of thing. Too bad they didn't have Civilization in 18th century France - it would have been placed elsewhere so you don't get all those nasty swamp squares.

Well, the original French settlements were built on the natural levee along the Mississippi, so they're above sea level. (Ever wondered why those French Quarter buildings have lasted so long? If that part of NO was so vulnerable, they wouldn't have made it 300 years). The newer development on drained swampland in the "bowl" is much more vulnerable.
   66. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1580855)
I predict $3 gas somewhre in the country by tomorrow afternoon.

That's cheating BD - they already have a few of those in CA.
   67. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:20 PM (#1580859)
Thought just occurred to me: any talk of whether disaster relief in the Southeast will be compromised in anyway because National Guard troops and assets are over in Iraq?
   68. Bob T Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:21 PM (#1580860)
There already is $3 per gallon gas in the U.S. so I don't see why this hurricane would make a difference.
   69. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1580864)
Oh, didn't know that. Ok then I predict the average price of gas will be more than $3 tomorrow afternoon.


Oh and since wea re talking about prices and we had a discussion about egg prices a few weeks ago, I paid $1 for 6 dozen egss today at a farmer's market.
   70. Will Young Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1580868)
Yeah, New Orleans is terribly placed for this type of thing. Too bad they didn't have Civilization in 18th century France - it would have been placed elsewhere so you don't get all those nasty swamp squares.

There's a reason I never play with the French in that game - they're always doing stupid stuff.
   71. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:26 PM (#1580877)
I paid $1 for 6 dozen egss today at a farmer's market.
A dollar for 72 eggs?
   72. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:27 PM (#1580880)
I like that the Americans are pretty unbeatable if you play on the "world" mode.
   73. bunyon Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:28 PM (#1580884)
So how soon until Pat Robertson or someone of his ilk gets on a national television to proclaim this a modern day S&G;?

Something like that will undoubtedly happen. It should be noted, though I hope it doesn't happen here, that every 40 or 50 years (or even more often) a disaster happens somewhere that kills tens or hundreds of thousands. It just usually happens somewhere out of range of the TV cameras.

I really, really hope this isn't one of those times. But, historically, these things happen.

God help those folks left on the coast.
   74. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:29 PM (#1580887)
I hope they release a bit of oil from the PSR. Not that it would really help with refineries down and at capacity anyway, but at least there's some psychological benefit to a really fidgety market.
   75. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:29 PM (#1580889)
One Dollar for 72 eggs.
   76. E., Hinske Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:29 PM (#1580891)
A dollar for 72 eggs?

Maybe they aren't chicken eggs.
   77. Shalimar Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:30 PM (#1580895)
It just started raining hard here (in Alabama, about 100 miles north of Fort Walton Beach). Judging from the weather radar, it probably won't stop for at least 48 hours. Hopefully they won't shut off the power for 3 days like they did in July even though Dennis didn't get within 50 miles.
   78. bunyon Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:31 PM (#1580899)
I paid $1 for 6 dozen egss today at a farmer's market.
A dollar for 72 eggs?


Did you keep them down for an hour?
   79. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:32 PM (#1580901)
They look like chicken eggs. Although I suppose they could be duck eggs.
   80. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1580905)
I like that the Americans are pretty unbeatable if you play on the "world" mode.

Zulus are great, too. You don't have to face them and you can pretty much block anyone else from entering Africa if you're quick. Plus, it means you won't have to face them.
   81. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1580907)
My father's family were chicken farmers in Jersey in the 50's and 60's, and they used to go to the local supermarket, buy eggs, take them out of their cartons, put them in unmarked boxes, and sell them at twice the price at a stand outside their farm with a sign for "Fresh Eggs". And, in truth, they were fresh; probably bought that day.
   82. E., Hinske Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1580908)
I've never had duck eggs...I think I'd just be naturally suspicious of anyone selling 6 dozen eggs for a dollar (although it IS an American dollar).

BTW, "New Orleans is Sinking" is a great tune.
   83. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1580912)
Zulus are great, too. You don't have to face them and you can pretty much block anyone else from entering Africa if you're quick. Plus, it means you won't have to face them.

Yeah, but your cities will suck because you've got nothing but grassland and desert. I'll take the resource-grasslands of the MS delta over that.
   84. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:36 PM (#1580915)
AHHHHHHHHH I JUST REALIZED SOMETHING HORRIBLE!!!!!!!!!!!


AVERY ISLAND!!!!!!!!!


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
   85. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:37 PM (#1580921)
The biggest disadvantage for America is that their civ-specific unit (F-15) doesn't appear until the end of the game, when the fate of the game is pretty much decided. And the F-15 isn't that much better the jet fighter. That's why I prefer the Greeks. The Hoplite is by far the best unit of the ancient era, allowing you to adequately defend cities with very few units.


I hope they release a bit of oil from the PSR. Not that it would really help with refineries down and at capacity anyway, but at least there's some psychological benefit to a really fidgety market.

No, the GOP would kick Bush out of the party if he did that. Its in their charter to only tap into the reserves during a national security crisis or an election year.
   86. zoperino,if youre not into the whole brevity thing Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:39 PM (#1580924)
The biggest disadvantage for America is that their civ-specific unit (F-15) doesn't appear until the end of the game, when the fate of the game is pretty much decided. And the F-15 isn't that much better the jet fighter. That's why I prefer the Greeks. The Hoplite is by far the best unit of the ancient era, allowing you to adequately defend cities with very few units.


Whoa, they didn't have this in the Civ that I played back in junior high. F-15's! Hoplites!

Bad-ass!
   87. Gold Star for Robot Boy Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:40 PM (#1580932)
So how soon until Pat Robertson or someone of his ilk gets on a national television to proclaim this a modern day S&G;?
There's already a debate on a political site (Balloon Juice) over who will be the first to criticize Bush for visiting NO when he didn't bother with the anti-war mom.
Then, someone turned it around, asking who will be the first to reason disasters like Katrina are why we need to stay in Iraq.
   88. Shiny Beast Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:42 PM (#1580935)
Just came in from surfing a little while ago. At nightfall, we were beginning to get some waves 6-8 feet, which is more than twice what we're used to. And I'm roughly 300 miles west of where that storm is tracking. I can't imagine what it must be like in Venice and Grand Isle, already.

The focus has been on New Orleans, understandably; but if it does get a direct hit, the biggest surge is going to be between Slidell and Gulfport. Those are low lying areas, too; and in the case of Gulfport, with all kind of development, right on the beach. Those people are in trouble. I would be suprised to see the Grande Casino or whatever that one right on the beach is called now asea by tomorrow morning.

All of south-central Louisiana is going to be seriously affected. Louisina basically doesn't have developable(sic) beaches, because most of the coastline is semi-submerged marsh and swampland. A storm surge of any kind will face little or no natural resistance, like dunes or bluffs, for several miles inland. Also, practically the whole area is kept inhabitable by an large and intricate series of mostly Corps of Engineers-built levees, dikes, dams, and whatnot. I don't know how a huge influx of ocean water will affect the infrastructure, but my guess is those COE guys are scrambling around this evening, too.

It seems to me that a fair percentage of the N.O. population who are below the poverty level are desperately poor, by U.S. standards. I was trying to understand how helpless it must feel, this huge catastrophic storm bearing down, and you are too poor to even get you and yours out of harm's way. Your only option is the Superdome, where you will mill around outside for hours before being let in, and shortly afterward the power will go out, flood waters will come in, it'll be hot, people will panic, and/or get angry, etc. I'm counting my blessings tonight, and hoping/praying for all those people over there.
   89. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:43 PM (#1580938)
Whoa, they didn't have this in the Civ that I played back in junior high. F-15's! Hoplites!

Bad-####!


Civ IV is coming out in a few months, too. I am very curious to see what they've done to improve the game further.
   90. Will Young Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:47 PM (#1580948)
Civ IV is coming out in a few months, too. I am very curious to see what they've done to improve the game further.

Crap, I didn't want to know that. Just what I need, another way to waste time. I wonder if they'll have a feature like DMB9 that allows entire games to be easily played online.
   91. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:47 PM (#1580949)
and shortly afterward the power will go out, flood waters will come in, it'll be hot, people will panic, and/or get angry

The only thing that scenario is missing is Ernest Borgnine and Shelley Winters.
   92. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:56 PM (#1580970)
Whoa, they didn't have this in the Civ that I played back in junior high. F-15's! Hoplites!

I love the German Panzer units.
   93. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 28, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1580977)
One thing i liked about CivIII was that they toned down the power of railroads. F!@# in Civ II you could get halfway across the map on railroads without using one movement point. I thought it was a little ridiculous.
   94. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1580983)
My father's family were chicken farmers in Jersey in the 50's and 60's, and they used to go to the local supermarket, buy eggs, take them out of their cartons, put them in unmarked boxes, and sell them at twice the price at a stand outside their farm with a sign for "Fresh Eggs".

If by "chicken farmers" you mean "con artists".

I love the German Panzer units.

You don't hear many racial minorities saying that. Here's another one, though.
   95. Urban Faber Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1580986)
But at least they don't have to watch the Saints play.
   96. E., Hinske Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:07 PM (#1580995)
In 1970, NSWPP member Frank Collin broke away from the group and founded the National Socialist Party of America which became famous due to its attempt to march through Skokie, Illinois; a community with a large Jewish population and a number of survivors of the Nazi genocide. Collin's actual goal was to lead demonstrations in Chicago's Marquette Park area, and targeted Skokie in an attempt to get access to Marquette Park without posting a large insurance bond. Collin was eventually convicted and sent to prison in 1979 on charges of child molestation.

Maybe everyone here already knew this, and I'm just now understanding the underpinnings of the whole Steve Garvey joke, but I'm amazed to learn that the American Nazi Party was actually led by a child molester.

He doesn't appear to have played for the Dodgers though, or have any convictions for war criminal type activities.
   97. Urban Faber Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:11 PM (#1581004)
I hate Illinois Nazis.
   98. NTNgod Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:18 PM (#1581014)
Found a post-Ivan article on the Superdome:

It appears a facility as large as the Dome could hold up in hurricane conditions but Bill Curl, spokesman for the Superdome, says that is yet to be tested and if there is no other choice then maybe the Dome could serve as a shelter.

“Only in dire emergencies. The Superdome is not a shelter,” said Curl.

According to Curl, the assumption that the Superdome can withstand hurricane force winds is just that: an assumption. He says more analysis is needed to determine what the Dome can actually withstand because previous wind studies have become somewhat irrelevant since they did not factor in the new high-rise buildings around the Dome.

“They create a wind tunnel effect and that needs to be tested. There were initial studies that indicated 130 miles per hour, but we don’t know,” said Curl. He adds that the Dome is not impervious to the same elements other areas would be exposed to.

“If we were to lose power, if we were to lose plumbing facilities, if a storm were to hit and create flooding in the area; the Superdome would not be a desirable place to be,” he said.


Granted, there don't seem to be many other options.
   99. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1581019)
It's God's punishment for Pat Robertson
   100. Shalimar Posted: August 28, 2005 at 11:29 PM (#1581024)
I'm still waiting for God to punish Pat Robertson directly.
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