Playing around with the Boston Batting Order

Since Manny’s return earlier this week Tito has busted out some new lineups.  Perhaps one of you who actually reads the Boston papers can provide some color, but the general theme is to lump the best hitters at the top. 

Dustin
Manny
Papi
Lowell
Drew
Youk or Tek
Tek or Chief
Chief or Hinske I assume it will be Crisp
Lugo

It seems like a “sabrmetric lineup”, at least as much as a lineup can be sabrmetric.  My own gut tells me that Lowell should be hitting 3rd, as his profile is a better fit (high ISO, low onbase) is a better fit for the slot relative to David, while Papi’s plus OBP is better off in the forth slot.  Though again with the drop off between 4 and 5 being so steep it’s not all that clear.

Luckily for us the great baseballmusings.com has a great lineup analysis tool on line which can be found here: Batting order

The only inputs you need for the tool is a player’s On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage.  I estimated those statistics for the players in question, Using a method I used previously on the BBQB.  Below are the resulting estimates:

When you input those variables into the Batting Order Tool you find out that lineup scores 5.59 runs per game. The lineup the sox most commonly used according to Baseball Reference would score 5.56 runs per game. So this lineup is an improvement. 

Now what if we play around with some other slots, keeping the baselineup as: Dusty, Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Youk, Tek, Coco, Lugo.

My initial gut was that Lowell and Papi should be flip flopped.  If you make that change that lineup scores 5.63 runs per game. Which is a pretty meaningful change.  Dusty, Manny, Lowell, Papi, Drew, Youk, Tek, Coco, Lugo.

A lot of people were up in arms about Lugo at the to of the lineup latter on in the season.  Well what does flipping Dusty and Lugo do?  that lineup scores 5.59 runs per game.  When you go out to 3 decimals the difference works out to .006 runs per game.  Lugo, Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Youk, Tek, Coco, Dusty.

A trick I have been using in DMB for years, when playing with in a DH league is to hit my worst hitter 8th, trying to creating that second leadoff man.  Well if you flip Crisp and Lugo you get a very large relative impac as that lineup scores 5.64 runs per game. Dusty, Manny, Papi, Lowell, Drew, Youk, Tek, Lugo, Coco.

So in other words, it makes a bigger difference to get your worst hitter away from the top of the lineup for when it turns over, than getting your worst hitter the most at bats on the team.  Which shocks the heck out of me.

Just for fun here are the best and worst lineup combinations.  I don’t think any of them are all that realistic.  Just switching Lugo and Crisp gets you most of the way to the optimal lineup.

sources:
baseballmusings
baseballprospectus
baseballreference